So from what I can tell, Lewwyn and Saul are the only ones who responded to my question about the gambit. Both were confirmed town after their deaths, so while their analysis can still be suspect, their slant can not.
(February 27th, 2015, 15:46)Lewwyn Wrote: I don't think its entirely implausible, but you're basing this on the idea that scum needed to make this gambit. Why do you think the gambit is nescessary?? It's only necessary if scum are on the block. So if you think its a gambit and you think that Brick is scum who benefits? Gaspar for one. Another big problem with it being a gambit though is that it targets novice. Do you think novice is town? I think people were ready to lynch novice today anyway without Brick's claim.
And thus leads me to my main point. We lynch Gaspar and we can come back to Brick and novice and Adrien. And I promise I would be open to that discussion. But I'm not willing to risk the game on chasing that and being divided by that when we have obvious scum to lynch in Gaspar.
The village cannot win without consolidating at this point.
Here are the two big posts of Lewwyn's that he made before he died.
(February 28th, 2015, 15:40)Lewwyn Wrote: So the question now is if Brick is lying or telling the truth. If he's telling the truth at least one of novice and Adrien are scum. If he's lying he's scum (I wouldn't preclude novice still being scum). I think we all need to weigh in on this tonight before the night is over. I think either me or Sauldicator are going to bite it tonight.
First I'm going to lead with my opinion that Adrien is almost certainly town. His play and vote on Matt on Day 1 was at a turning point for the Matt wagon and really was key. I think at that point on Day 1 scum wouldn't have made the vote he did. Additionally Day 4 Adrien was 3rd onto Gaspar and I think his vote was the one that convinced scum Gaspar was a goner for the day. It is likely that there is a scum among the Gaspar voters, but Adrien was early enough in my opinion that it adds to his towness. Additionally, throughout the game Adrien has been fairly active, pushing and actually making reasoned argument, scumhunting. Given all this I submit Adrien removed from the Brick-novice-Adrien equation of the Brick claim, leaving us with Brick and novice.
I'm going to read a bit more before I post on novice and Brick, but I also want to add that Adrien's townie-ness is possibly a point in favor of Brick being town since he would want to pick the most townie person as the third person up against novice. However I guess scum would do that too to make the claim seem more viable so that might be a null tell.
(March 1st, 2015, 15:00)Lewwyn Wrote: The biggest advice I can give at this point is not to get too caught up in meta. I think we simply need to lynch the scummiest player. I've held off really discussing my opinions on Brick and novice, mostly because for me they are the two scummiest players left. Unfortunately I just haven't had the time with all the goings on here to really buckle down and compile the posts into one post. But let's start.
I think the case against novice has been gone through a bunch. If you want to go back and look at my initial day 3 post against Novice and those interactions with him, thats where I talk about my Day 2 novice read and why he's so suspicious. That still stands. However later I switched to Qg off of novice because Qg parroted me and broke my scumdar. But then Qg posted a nice big post and novice immediately posted:
I honestly think novice is scum and is the best lynch independent of Brick's claim.
Brick is semi suspicious, but I actually think his waffling on Zak and Matt Day 1 is kind of villagery. That said, based on everything Brick is my #2 suspect! If Brick hadn't claimed I would push for a novice>Brick lynch based solely on scumminess.
Lewwyn thought Brick was the second scummiest player in the game at this point. He only gives Brick any credit because he is voting against Lewwyn's #1. I think it's fair to assume that, were Lewwyn in the game still, he would now view Brick as #1 scum.
(February 27th, 2015, 16:00)Doctor Saul Wrote: I think it's possible. I think there's also a small chance Brick is scum and trying to get credit now by bussing fellow scum. If we were to lynch novice and he flips town then people need to evaluate both AdrienIer and Brick before deciding.
Thing is, do we have a safer play that also has a high chance of getting scum? I've been trying to find one and I can't find one. If we lynch Gaspar, he flips scum, then we're right back to the novice-brick question tomorrow. If we lynch novice and he's town then we have to get 3 scum in a row.
Since I can't find a safe route, I think you have to just go with who you think is highest odds for flipping scum. Take it one day at a time and make the best read you can for that day. Barring a strong read then you need to vote with the people you think are your strongest village leans, but there's still time to convene on one.
X-post with a couple ppl
Here are the posts Saul made on the issue. More because he survived an extra day.
(March 1st, 2015, 19:15)Doctor Saul Wrote: If you really are town then it's likely we're both going to lose novice. Because right now you're slinging so hard onto me if you flip town then I can see myself going down for being so confident about you. It will be lynch you, lynch Brick, lynch me, town loses.
(March 3rd, 2015, 02:51)Doctor Saul Wrote: Sum up -
There's two stories to choose from. Either Brick is scum who's played a brilliant game -- I say brilliant because everything of his reads like it's natural. Who set novice up to push Q, who started suspecting Gaspar at the right moments and followed through appropriately yesterday. Who kept his cases consistent and also managed to comment appropriately on other sides. Who gave us day 1 waffling that sounds natural.
Or he's a town who did all those things without having to work to make them look authentic. And novice really is scum and is trying to play up Brick's reputation to try and cover for a scummier game.
In the end, I think it's highly more likely that novice is scum than Brick. I'd vote novice even without the reveal. I'm a lot more confident in Brick as town than I was before I did it. If he's really duped me that well, good for him. But I don't think he is.
(March 3rd, 2015, 11:43)Doctor Saul Wrote: It is worth noting that brick didn't vote Gaspar until after he had given up.
this town is way too quiet. We should be trying to find out who s novice accomplice or a brick accomplice would be. Cause worst case that's the LYLO and the wrist case situation
(March 3rd, 2015, 14:45)Doctor Saul Wrote: Now Adrien does seem life a possible partner for brick. So fits novice (unlikely gambit); early today I thought dtay was a possible novice partner but he's been very it going in support today
(March 3rd, 2015, 15:11)Doctor Saul Wrote: Dammit
GG novice.
Brick slept well last night too
(March 3rd, 2015, 19:28)Doctor Saul Wrote: My gut says we need to lynch AdrienIer tomorrow.
(March 4th, 2015, 01:26)Doctor Saul Wrote: 2) We have to vote for either Brick or Adrien. We're living in 1 of 2 possible worlds. Either Brick lied and is scum, or Brick mistakenly chose AdrienIer and novice's lynch was a mistake. They both can't be innocent.
3) Go with your gut tomorrow. I think we've been looking at this trying to find the silver bullet and there isn't one. Scum is playing a great game; town isn't so. I was all ready to pat myself on the back for novice, and even as he sounded more town I still told myself he was the lynch that fit the facts. So I'll admit I'm not playing well with facts. So I say go with your instinct, make your best read. But in the end don't forget #1. Vote with the people you're most sure are town, whether that be dtay, or me, or sunrise.
My gut read of this. Of the 2 possible worlds I mentioned above I thnk the second one is true -- I think Brick chose a scum target; he just got AdrienIer instead of Novice.
I also think the first one is true. I think Brick and AdrienIer are both scum, and the plan was to go something like this: In day 3, when the Q was on the block and novice and other people were pushing the case, Brick got the idea to push through the Q lynch and then claim he used his power on 3 people. One would be Gaspar, who the scum team night kills. The second would be novice, who he had been building suspicion on throughout day 3, up to the novice vote after Q's reveal. The third would be innocent AdrienIer, who most of the town had accepted. Brick says that he likes AdrienIer's posting more in day 3, but I can't say I see AdrienIer really doing much more upon looking at it again. He asks a lot of questions and does a lot of nothing.
That's why Gaspar was against switching off Q - they needed novice alive for the reveal. Then no matter how the reveal played out scum would get town points. If Brick is lynched then AdrienIer and Novice are both cleared. If AdrienIer is lynched then Brick looks like the bumbling hero but we know he was tellign the truth so he must be on our side. If Novice is mislynched then Brick is lynched in retaliation and again, AdrienIer looks like the town who was used to prop up a Novice mislynch.
Do I have evidence? Hardly. It's just my gut feel. It's how I see AdrienIer and Brick go back and forth now; it feels staged to me. How the end of Day 3 now seems like Brick could be playing up his emotion a little too much. It's like Jabbz said when he thought Brick wasn't being honest, and how dtay questioned why novice would be doing the night kill when under suspicion or why I asked Brick why he picked AdrienIer. Parts didn't add up, but the novice narrative fit so well we let it sit.
It would fit what we know of for Brick -- it would also mean Mattimeo was indeed actively bussed by both AdrienIer and Gaspar pushing him into the lead form a tie. To me that has a smell of a Brick plan. It feels right.
It's possible I'm wrong. I did detect Brick slept in his bed night 4 and AdrienIer is his bed night 3. It's more likely that one of them is paired with another person as scum than it is that they just alternated days to kill and I have bad luck. So if you don't think my explanation passes then don't take it. Go with your own gut. I'll do my best to listen if I'm around for it.
But my gut says we're going to nail a scum tomorrow.
(March 4th, 2015, 14:59)Doctor Saul Wrote: If you believe Adrien was scum then IMO you have to believe Matt was actively bussed. He was tied with me at that point and the next two votes were AdrienIer and Gaspar both voting Mattimeo.
If you want to make the case Mattimeo was bussed to save me, I would argue that people were already coming off my wagon and talking about other potential people to vote for.
I think that it smells of a Brick plot. Extravagant plays are exciting for him.
Something else that smells of Brick: every player night killed had previously mentioned suspecting Brick. Yet that has never been brought up as an argument. I would have suspected scum to at least float that idea by now.
Still, this is contingent in AdrienIer being scum too. And I can see other scenarios where Adrienler Is scum takes with another wolf, though it doesn't feel as right to me. So Id Still say Adrien is the safer lynch.
Remember to make sure we vote together with who we think is town. and go with your gut!
Saul makes very little sense here, when looking at it as a stream of consciousness. First he thinks Brick is likely town, or brilliant wolf. Then he thinks Brick and AdrienIer are both scum together, then he is convinced Brick is scum, and the AdrienIer can only be scum based on Brick being scum. Then he says vote AdrienIer.
Not a lot of help to me there.
(February 27th, 2015, 20:16)Jabbz Wrote: Ok, then with what I've read so far, Gaspar makes the most sense. I also buy that Brick making a gambit at this point doesn't make a lot of sense, since scum does appear to be in a pretty good position, and novice does seem scummy. I'm not 100% on board with his AdrienIer as town read, but novice I buy as scum. We know Gaz's heart was in the right place, lets find out if his logic was as well.
(March 1st, 2015, 20:10)Jabbz Wrote: FWIW I'm inclined to vote novice, and lynch Brick if we're wrong. It's not LYLO AFAIK so it puts us in a tense spot if Novice is the wrong lynch, but its not over.
The simplest way of explaining my vote is that I find novice to be substantially more scummy than I find brick to be. Since Brick's claim frames this as a clear black/white issue, I'll go with white, and hope I haven't been tricked. Novice
With all the above, I think I'm going to go with Lewwyn, and my own gut, which said that if Brick wasn't right about novice, then he is scum setting us up. It also fits, either way, into Saul's insanity. I'm probably wrong, and were going to lose, but hey, you get what you get, and this is why scum probably left me alive :P If I'm right, tomorrow is going to be even worse.
BRickAstley
I can't believe I'm voting with sunrise against dtay. Terrible choice of voting partners either way.
So you said you are voting for me because I'm setting you up if novice wasn't scum. But you say your main support for that is coming from Lewwyn, who basically says in the first post up there that a gambit doesn't make any sense. Why would I have done this gambit then?
Also in that post you've quoted other people, and yourself, almost entirely on thoughts of me or novice (excepting Saul's talk at the end). Do you have any thoughts or comments on what's been talked about by AdrienIer and I for the last night and day? Or any thoughts on AdrienIer himself besides that one you quoted a week ago?
Brick's last words, before scum decided he needed to die, were that you were only not scummy to him, because you were voting for his #1, that turned out to be town. By Lewwyn's words, you would have been the next scummiest in line, the more so because you were directly responsible for lynching a townie. An easy to kill townie admittedly, but still a townie.
As to me, I was very worried when you posted this idea, and I allowed myself to be swayed by a guy who was convinced novice was scum. Lewwyn even comments that you are the one that gains if Novice pops town. Also, I'm doing the only thing I can at this point, going with my gut, which says were being played. Also, while I find sunrise's lurking to be fishy as fuck, I find dtay to be more scummy. Not by much mind you, but it's there.
(March 6th, 2015, 12:16)sunrise089 Wrote: dtay, are you committed to staying on Adrien? I'm a little nervous about Jabbz swinging things with seemingly little notice.
Re this and Adrien, I've basically seen nothing today that changes my mind from where it started, probably like 60-40 or 70-30 adrien.
If it's 3-2 Brick with like 10 minutes to go though I'll put my vote on brick just to stop potential scum switcheroo in the ending seconds.
(March 6th, 2015, 01:43)Jabbz Wrote: I've reread everything that's pertinent I think. The problem I am running into, is that prior to today, I had nice warm and fuzzies about both Adrien and Brick. Now I'm not sure. Brick's not finding the right person on the first shot makes me seriously question him. I expressed a belief earlier that I had a concern it was a gambit. The arguments people made against it were persuasive at the time. Now I'm second guessing myself, and getting cold feet.
OTOH Adrien being scum supports my feelings that a gambit was unnecessary. Except for the fact that we now appear to be in LYLO, and the gambit appears to be working. Further, I can't decide if AdrienIer's multiple attempts to theorycraft are scummy or towny. I really need to come down on that one way or another.
I think I need to go back and re-read the individuals who convinced me the gambit was unnecessary, and take it from that point. I also think that some action regarding every other player is now warranted. If we get this right, we have 72 hours to get the last one right as well. I don't know that much more can be said about the adrien/brick dichotomy, other than the fact that one of them has to be lynched today. Absent specific questions, I think we need to start delving into possible other scum.
