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(March 6th, 2015, 14:06)sunrise089 Wrote: (March 6th, 2015, 13:12)BRickAstley Wrote: If it's 3-2 on me at the end of the day, how would last minute switching to vote me be any help if you really believe that AdrienIer is more likely scum?
Because if Jabbz or I was scum with Adrien it would make a ton of sense to switch last second if dtay indicated he was locked in.
Yeah, i figured that out afterwards, but thanks.
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(March 6th, 2015, 14:06)sunrise089 Wrote: (March 6th, 2015, 13:12)BRickAstley Wrote: If it's 3-2 on me at the end of the day, how would last minute switching to vote me be any help if you really believe that AdrienIer is more likely scum?
Because if Jabbz or I was scum with Adrien it would make a ton of sense to switch last second if dtay indicated he was locked in.
You mean scum with Brick?
Fear cuts deeper than swords.
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You going to participate any more before you kill me sunrise? 
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(March 6th, 2015, 13:47)dtay Wrote: I think it's pretty clear from the context it's not like Brick had more independent information than the rest of us with regards to the novice/adrien dyad, and he didn't try to misrepresent it as such.
He misrepresented the level of certainty in his read. To me that makes it a bit more difficult to lynch Novice and then Adrien (though we're 1 vote away from doing exactly that) but makes it easier to at least lynch Novice. It also really helps if Adrien is also scum.
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(March 6th, 2015, 14:22)sunrise089 Wrote: (March 6th, 2015, 13:47)dtay Wrote: I think it's pretty clear from the context it's not like Brick had more independent information than the rest of us with regards to the novice/adrien dyad, and he didn't try to misrepresent it as such.
He misrepresented the level of certainty in his read. To me that makes it a bit more difficult to lynch Novice and then Adrien (though we're 1 vote away from doing exactly that) but makes it easier to at least lynch Novice. It also really helps if Adrien is also scum.
Yeah but again it's not like novice wasn't already pretty likely a lynch soon.
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(March 6th, 2015, 13:23)BRickAstley Wrote: Why would I bother making up a gambit to nail novice to the wall, if he already looks really scummy?
I think this overestimates how certain any given lynch is. I seem to recall Brick or someone else saying something like "we'll trust the scan and lynch novice, and then if that's wrong we'd know to lynch Brick" and yet here we are suddenly able to explain it away.
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Brick, I'm actually more troubled by why not just night kill novice. Lewwyn ended up a greater danger to scum, but I don't know if that was predictable before the Gaspar lynch day.
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(March 6th, 2015, 14:24)sunrise089 Wrote: (March 6th, 2015, 13:23)BRickAstley Wrote: Why would I bother making up a gambit to nail novice to the wall, if he already looks really scummy?
I think this overestimates how certain any given lynch is. I seem to recall Brick or someone else saying something like "we'll trust the scan and lynch novice, and then if that's wrong we'd know to lynch Brick" and yet here we are suddenly able to explain it away.
Heh, I sure didn't say to lynch myself. 
(March 6th, 2015, 14:25)sunrise089 Wrote: Brick, I'm actually more troubled by why not just night kill novice. Lewwyn ended up a greater danger to scum, but I don't know if that was predictable before the Gaspar lynch day.
I'm a bit confused here, you're curious why novice didn't get night killed? I would say probably because he posted very little towards the start of the game and most everyone thought he was scummy.
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Cmon guys please, a gambit here is ridiculous and there are quite a few other ways that I could have done it much better if I was scum and doing one. I've been thrown off by AdrienIer not really being suspicious too but I know he's scum, and we've got to nail him now.
Sunrise, can I at least have an aswer about the role thing before you kill me off?
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(March 6th, 2015, 14:29)BRickAstley Wrote: I'm a bit confused here, you're curious why novice didn't get night killed? I would say probably because he posted very little towards the start of the game and most everyone thought he was scummy.
Sorry, could have been more clear.
If you made a gambit and tried for a one-for-one or two-for-one I'm wondering why you picked novice. One idea is that he was easily lynchable, but I take your point that if he was too easily lnychable you'd not need to run the gambit. So another idea is that he was a big threat, but in that instance it seems like he was a night-kill candidate instead.
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