WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[sunrise089]

In phone, but I was finally hit.

I'm a 'Tough Man.' My passive ability makes me mortally wounded rather than killed, and, if the game went to it, I'd die at the start of the NEXT day.

Now to figure out who wanted me dead.

[AdrienIer]

Oh so if we don't lynch scum kills someone else and we lose right ?

[sunrise089]

Adrien, I was worried the scum might no kill too, and then wondered about the no lynch counter. For better or for worse though that's off the table.

Obviously I was hoping to be night targeted an earlier night...

[sunrise089]

Cross. Right Adrien. Since by my count there can't be another role out there scum would get two deaths at the end of the next night.

[AdrienIer]

Ok. Then I'm staying on dtay. Any opinion so far Sunrise ?

[AdrienIer]

Heh you said you were on your phone, just give us your thoughts when you're more at ease.

[dtay]

Missed deadline playing PB22, not looking at clock, dangit.

Doesn't matter not dead, also did not expect to be given I'm the clear mislynch.

I'm pretty much convinced Adrien is the scum. From my perspective I can basically clear Sunrise and Jabbz, if either of them were the scum then they could have just joined my on adrien yesterday to get the final mislynch. Some small risk I would end up getting convinced off of him, but a bus yesterday makes 0 sense to me. If Sunrise or Jabbz is scum they're playing super suboptimally just to screw with everyone.

That leaves Adrien.

Supporting points that don't require absolute knowledge of myself being town:
1) It's the only explanation of Brick's gambit that doesn't require endless layers of WIFOM. It cleanly gets a player into endgame basically cleared, which nearly ensures a scum victory. Every other explanation of the gambit either requires really precise predictions of player thought patterns or is actively worse than the scum just doing nothing and not drawing attention to Brick.

2) Sunrise "death" - or more accurately leaving Jabbz alive. Jabbz was (and is) very unlikely to vote for someone besides me, both on past conflict + night statement, which makes the mislynch even closer to a sure thing.

[AdrienIer]

From my perspective I can basically clear Sunrise and Jabbz, if either of them were the scum then they could have just joined my on adrien yesterday to get the final mislynch. Some small risk I would end up getting convinced off of him, but a bus yesterday makes 0 sense to me. If Sunrise or Jabbz is scum they're playing super suboptimally just to screw with everyone.

That leaves Adrien.

Am I once again going to face a 1vs1 situation ? Because it's basically my reasoning except you're scum.

Supporting points that don't require absolute knowledge of myself being town:
1) It's the only explanation of Brick's gambit that doesn't require endless layers of WIFOM. It cleanly gets a player into endgame basically cleared, which nearly ensures a scum victory. Every other explanation of the gambit either requires really precise predictions of player thought patterns or is actively worse than the scum just doing nothing and not drawing attention to Brick.

Actually you're WIFOMing right now, you wouldn't be scum because you're the obvious culprit, so you're not scum... You tried to get me lynched after getting novice, Sunrise and Jabbz didn't follow you so now you're trying to make it a town point in your favor. It won't work.

2) Sunrise "death" - or more accurately leaving Jabbz alive. Jabbz was (and is) very unlikely to vote for someone besides me, both on past conflict + night statement, which makes the mislynch even closer to a sure thing.

Targeting Sunrise is in line with the "kill all vet players" strategy that has been used until now. There was the problem of clearing out BRick's enemies but now it's just about who is the most experienced player. If you had targeted Jabbz it would have been used against you (I thought you would do it, and intended to call you on that).

[dtay]

Replying to Jabbz's reads

AdrienIer. Likely town. While it is possible for the claim Saul made to be true, there are a LOT of moving parts. I felt that even the gambit Brick was making was questionable, so much to the point that I nearly changed my mind in the end, but the idea that they are setting up an open ended town cred builder like that, which requires one to be put heavily in the spotlight, and the other killed, is more than I can accept.

I don't think it requires many moving parts at all. While there are a lot of moving parts for things to end up exactly the way they did end up, the brilliance of it is that it pretty much can't go wrong, no matter which permutation of events happen scum almost certainly get a high-cred town into the 3 person endgame (well, 4 person now cause sunrise). If in the abstract scum have 2/3 chance of winning 3 person endgame, endgame where the scum is the most towny is basically playing with house money.

Take the scenario where things don't work out for scum - imagine say instead of lynching novice we lynched Adrien. Incredibly unlikely given where people's suspicions were, but let's just assume everything went from for Scum. Then scum could NK novice, which looks reasonable b/c Novice is obvi-town (perhaps) at that point. Then village certainly lynches some non-brick player, Brick NK's, and then we're in 3 person endgame with towny brick.

Sunrise. Holy lurker. I mean I got busy as hell, and I don't imagine my post count is that great, especially when you take into account that I have a tendency of posting a series of single responses when I'm doing a big catchup, so you really have to divide my count by at least 2. Despite that, I think I still blow you away in posts. This could be strategic, it could be lazy, it could be boredom. Any way you slice it, it's questionable at best, and gives you a scum lean, or at the very least denies you any town cred.

Agree in abstract, but I think he and you are cleared because of yesterday.

Dtay. I'm pretty sure Dtay is the last scum.

Predictable, pretty sure I'm being set up as such.

I see this as knowing that the vote on Zak isn't going to happen, so jumping along with the rest of scum to Matt in order to secure some semblance of early town cred. He does so after others point out how sketchy the Zak switch looks. He lurks for a good while, the comes back, writes a "read" of Qg, which concludes that he is scummy. Maybe. Then writes up a post about Fenn saying he looks townie. Maybe. Then he votes Fenn. He then writes a read of me. Concludes I'm scummy, thinks it's likely I'm a scumpair with Qg, still votes Fenn. Next day does a huge read of me, concludes I'm town. Maybe. Either way, my cases are bad, and shouldn't be paid attention to, especially since they are arguing against him. Goes absent a while, comes back and lists his current scum suspects as Lewwyn, Sunrise, and Qg, votes Sunrise. Next day, drops a vote on Gaspar after the train has almost left the track. No new arguments to give, just jumps on the train for the town cred. Brick joins him shortly after. Does a read on AdrienIer, even though he is voting Gaspar. Claims he could be town, could be scum, so could novice, so wants another day to decide.

This is partially accurate. You say I express uncertainty on d2 reads, which I do, because they're... day 2 reads and we have very very little to go on. All one can do is figure out the person you think is most likely scum and vote on that. Certainty would be well, irrational.

Didn't say I thought you were scumpair with qqqqqq, said that that seems more plausible than other block pairs. If you read it in context I was thinking about how the zak switch would work from a scum perspective and saying that I didn't think 2 scum switching within 1 minute of each other. You obviously were not cleared by that logic, that's all.

Accurate on what I did with gaspar, just didn't have new arguments. I could parrot, but then you'd say parrotting was scummy.

Sidenote - most of these absenses are periods of time where literally everyone in the entire village wwas absent, since we often had weird 12 hour silences on the first day of daytime periods. If that's a scum tell, it's a scum tell for everyone left alive.

Makes another point questioning Adrien's towncred. Makes a point about how sunrise's argument is questionable. Makes another post questioning Saul's towncred, postulates he could be deep cover wolf. Notes that Adrien joined Brick on Novice vote, postulates could be wolf pair trying to save scum brother (gaspar). Does another "big read" on Adrien, finds him "null" until now, but now he is scummy. Maybe. In same post "reads" brick. Questions the gambit, says doesn't find anything about brick's play scummy, and says he gets town points for scan gambit. Does another read on novice. Finds he "could be scum" maybe, votes Adrien instead because adrien's town points are minor.

You're really misprepresenting a lot of these "questions towncred" statements which didn't happen like that at all. I'll go pull quotes later, but a lot of these are me saying "one could think X, but ehh, X is silly", and you're pretending I only said "one coudl think X". It's called thinking through all the possbilities, and then showing why you think some of them are too complicated/have counter args/etc.

Like for example:

slips into the argument that I could be scum for my vote on matt. Maybe.

I didn't do that at all. It was a point to demonstrate how bad / inconsistently applied someone else's argument was. You're continually making the mistake of assuming if I mention a possible argument I am making said argument. I am about half the time setting it up to refute it, and you're ignoring that.

What you're calling hedging is not being irrationally certain because of minor scum tells. If I didn't "hedge" so to speak by this point I'd be utterly convinced all 3 of you were scum and I was just being toyed with.

All dtay has done all game, is muddy the waters for everyone he could get his paws on.

Except for the players I said I thought were pretty towny, so w/e, let's ignore those ones.

Of all his big reads, the only scum he reads was Brick and finds him more concretely innocent than he did any townie he read, though that's not saying much given how much he hedged everything. Dtay has alternated between lurking, and posting large, ultimately meaningless because he refuses to actually weigh in on them, posts about townies, which serve no purpose other than to make them look fishy.

Also. true. Of. Every. Player. Alive. Literally, scum killed EVERY player that actually caught a scum, excepting this last Brick day. Adrien's gonna claim credit for the Gaspar thing, except similar to your complaints against me he bloody hedges that too and then ended up voting for Gaspar's opponent on the block until it was clear said opponent wasn't going anywhere.

It is similarly rich to say I lurk. I'm reasonably sure (have not counted or anything) I've posted the most (both by count and by substance) of any of us 4. That isn't really independently towny, but god, if there's a thing to say I'm scum for it isn't bloody lurking, not among this crew.

And most of those things you're sayign are "meaningless" because I don't weigh in I do ultimately weigh in on, you're just annoyed I'm being rational and noting that this is all just playing a game of "how likely" even when I vote. Because that's what this game is, except in rather extraordinary cases like right now where I have near absolute clears on all but 1 player.

[dtay]

Actually you're WIFOMing right now, you wouldn't be scum because you're the obvious culprit, so you're not scum... You tried to get me lynched after getting novice, Sunrise and Jabbz didn't follow you so now you're trying to make it a town point in your favor. It won't work.

I didn't say that. I did note that I knwo that's whats happening, but I obviously don't expect that to be persuasive to anyone, because it's endless and circular (because then wait that makes Adrien the bvious scum, but the obvious scum can't be scum, so dtay is, etc etc).

My arg is about the gambit, and what levels of prediction the gambit requires for you to be scum or for me to be scum.

Every other explanation requires weirdly complicated predictions how how town will react to things OR is actively worse than doing nothing. My explanation basically requires town to be conventional, ("the guy the scum was framing is not scum") which seems like a reasonable gambit to me and in fact looks pretty much like it's going to work, compared to say the gambit where I'm scum but we did this gambit b/c this gambit makes no sense so I couldn't possibly be scum.

Hell, I don't even think the gambit makes sense with me as scum if you DO wifom at that correct level, because it doesn't explain why Brick was pretty much set up to be sacrificed just to slightly increase the probability of the already probable novice lynch.