WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[AdrienIer]

Actually dtay we're tied in post count. In content well... I helped take down Gaspar by adding additional content, which is a lot better than your record.

The gambit is very simple and doesn't need any WIFOM. I explained it N5. BRick does the gambit to delay the Gaspar lynch. We lynch novice, then it's a certain 50/50 between him and me, Lewwyn dies in the night. If possible make the lynch be between me and him and not Gaspar, you already have 3 people voting for me it just needs Saul Sunrise or Jabbz to fall for your trick. Or make Gaspar vote for BRick, who thanks to that gets lynched, boom Gaspar has town points and now we're at LyLo with Gaspar having just acquired towncred and you still lying low. Town is screwed. Bad luck for you Lewwyn pushed the Gaspar lynch through.

[sunrise089]

I for one appreciate that follow-up Adrien, all the talk on the gambit got a little much to keep close track of

Going in to today I had the most unease about Jabbz, but mainly based on his interactions of me. That said, I also have the hardest time seeing Jabbz killing me, and agree his vote for Brick while not obv-town was definitely towny.

Right now I lean dtay over Adrien, but I have a lot to look over. Certainly far from a final answer, and I agree with dtay that Adrien does seem to have the most reason to try and kill me.

[dtay]

Going in to today I had the most unease about Jabbz, but mainly based on his interactions of me. That said, I also have the hardest time seeing Jabbz killing me, and agree his vote for Brick while not obv-town was definitely towny.

Why on earth wouldn't scum-Jabbz just vote for Adrien though? If Jabbz were scum adrien is town, and the mislynch wins. If jabbz joins me on Adrien then the only possible risk is if I get cold feet and move away, which while possible I don't think Jabbz would have believe LIKELY (especially by the time Jabbz votes and how silent the day was).

That's enough for me to 90% clear him, and probably 80% clear you on the same logic (somewhat easier to explain you as scum given you put vote down earlier and didn't get to be the decider, but still very bizarre for you to be scum).

Actually dtay we're tied in post count. In content well... I helped take down Gaspar by adding additional content, which is a lot better than your record.

If by help take down gaspar you mean add minor points after Gazglum's post, then say you aren't voting for Gaspar immediately because he deserves a chance to lead, then proceed to vote for someone else entirely until it's clear that other person wasn't going to beat gaspar, sure, you "helped take down Gaspar". Given I didn't vote until late that's hardly an independent way for me to convince sunrise and Jabbz that you're the scum, but it certainly isn't a point in your town column.

Your explanation of the gambit is exactly what I meant with "complicated town reaction". The gambit was gaspar is in trouble, so Brick, to save gaspar you look EVEN MORE scummy so gaspar can take you down. Except Brick didn't even do a good job of looking scummy, he actually seemed very towny to everyone until novice came up town. This yet again requires believing in extreme scum incompetence.

The novice side of that (ie brick's attempt to save gaspar by lynching novice) again just doesn't make sense because of how much it puts brick in the spotlight. Say they get the lynch on novice. Obvious town reaction is "Brick, wtf, you're scum" (ie - exactly what did happen), then brick gets lynched, turns up scum. Then that leads right back to Gaspar since Brick did the gambit while Gaspar was on the block.

None of these plans you'er attempting to allege meet any standard of redunancy, hell, forget redundancy (ie - if unprobable outcomes happen scum can get by), the plans fail when the PROBABLE outcomes happen.

[sunrise089]

dtay, I agree re: Jabbz generally. We're just quibbling over a 90% town lean vs some similarly high percentage, and how to label that.

[dtay]

Ah k.

[AdrienIer]

Your explanation of the gambit is exactly what I meant with "complicated town reaction". The gambit was gaspar is in trouble, so Brick, to save gaspar you look EVEN MORE scummy so gaspar can take you down. Except Brick didn't even do a good job of looking scummy, he actually seemed very towny to everyone until novice came up town. This yet again requires believing in extreme scum incompetence.

Or Gaspar could just go with "he's done things like this before don't trust him", novice would have been on his side. No need for him to be super scummy, because super scummy means other townies are likely to pick up on it, and Gaspar gets less town points.

[AdrienIer]

I have to add that I'm a bit disappointed in you dtay. You're logical yet you don't see that there is another possibility than me. I could easily mount a case against Sunrise right now (it's you or him in my mind, but you're way way scummier) and so should you. Yet you dismiss it as impossible.
If someone's interested in why Sunrise could be the last scum laughing at us in our folly I'll take the time to write a case down. Point is, town dtay would have thought it all through, here he's content to stay superficial.

[Jabbz]

I understand Jabbz, given more time undoubtedly a better tally could be made. I didn't invest said time, but posted what I found. Since I admitted it wasn't productive I'm not sure why you felt the need to bash it though...

Sorry just responding to this now sunrise. It wasn't meant to be a bash at all. I thought you were saying the same thing Adrien did, that looking at voting patterns wasn't going to be useful, hence my response. I think it might be worth delving in and checking every vote made by all four of us over the game, and I was implying that with my post, but I was in a hurry so it came out wrong. Sorry about that mate.

[AdrienIer]

Jabbz do you realize you're still not voting ?
Not a rhetorical question, but you seemed so sure during the night that I'm puzzled as to why only dtay and I are currently voting.

[Jabbz]

So I kept up via phone yesterday, when I could do so without the wife noticing me. I've thus had a lot of time to think about the various possibilities. Here are the scenarios I can picture.

1. Scum=dtay. Following my night post, dtay realizes that killing me would be the easiest way to get himself killed. Thus he tries to kill sunrise, so the discussion the next day is centered between Adrien and himself. He figures it’s easier to get me to lynch Adrien, since Adrien has been up for the lynch so long, and he plans to argue that were he scum, he would have just killed me, and he is being framed.

I find this scenario to be the most likely. After killing me, dtay would be left trying to make a wifom argument all day against sunrise and Adrien, two very experienced players. At this point, dtay hasn’t been evaluated very much, as I said in my night statement, he has slipped by making virtually no enemies. Thus he is forced to deal with a deep examination of his motives all game, and stuck trying to frame the lurker, who from what I understand has a history of lurking in most games, or Adrien, who has been under constant threat for the last RL week. Further Adrien is already on dtay, so in order to get him onto sunrise, it’s going to take a lot of work.

Conversely, if he kills Adrien, he is now forced to try to turn me, who was already very against him, against sunrise. This could be possible, but the primary thing to go after sunrise for is his lack of posting, which I already acknowledged was barely better than my own. Plus I am already after him, and after watching last game, he knows that I’m likely to continue after him. Since there is so little to frame sunrise with, this becomes a very difficult task to accomplish, and thus seems to not be a good option.

Thus his only remaining recourse is to kill sunrise. This makes more sense than the above situations. He is left with Adrien, who already has his name tarnished, though he did survive to this point, and me, who he can claim he as scum wouldn’t have left alive. He then spends the entire time arguing that I’m scum, and it’s all a big play, and tries to convince Adrien that he should vote for me. Dtay has more posts than me, I’ve looked scummy a lot this game, and he has the advantage of “not having killed me” to persuade Adrien. This does have the flaw that he has to explain away my behavior the last game day, with breaking the tie in favor of lynching brick, but that’s easier to do that arguing for dtay as scum placing his vote against a scum mate. Both come down to distancing. In addition, I’m a newer player, so it’s easier to overwhelm me than it would be sunrise, and on top of that, he can add his day (4?) first time statement where he would switch last 10 minutes to avoid a miss lynch, to presage his last 10 minute switch in the last day’s vote. This makes it easier to say I knew I couldn’t get a miss lynch, and thus I just did the distancing nearly last minute. All in all, this is by far his best chance to win.

2. Scum=AdrienIer. Following my post, AdrienIer realized an opportunity to use me like I was used last game, to prop up a miss lynch because I’m zeroed in on a target already. He promises a significant post of his logic, instead only posts a small bit, and just uses it to reinforce that he will be voting tomorrow with me. He then tries to take out sunrise.

This one makes some sense, and is a little frightening because it means I’m being used. Again. That scares me for my ego’s sake. It also requires me however, to believe that the gambit was as complex as I described it yesterday. I know that dtay tried to address that, but quite frankly, I didn’t find the argument persuasive, and the argument that more scum in the mix somehow makes it less complex rings incredibly sketchy. I think there is some possibility that this is the case, however, if it is, then I’m almost ok with AdrienIer and team scum winning, because that means their play throughout was nearly flawless, and was beautifully handled from day one. Not impossible if the scum team consisted of Gaspar, Mattimeo, Brick, and AdrienIer. Still, I find this much harder to believe than the dtay scenario.

3. Scum=Sunrise. Sunrise decides that he isn’t going to win as cleanly as he would like in a 2v1 situation. If he kills me, he has to convince AdrienIer to lynch dtay, or vise verse. If he kills Adrien it’s me against dtay, dtay, it’s me against Adrian. So he kills no one, pretends he has a role that makes him strong enough to survive the day, so that we have to lynch someone today.

This one makes the least sense of all. There is, to my way of seeing things, literally NO way that this accomplishes anything. Sunrise already avoided going on Adrien yesterday, when he could have put it to three. Brick wouldn’t have run, (town)dtay would have stayed on the Adrien vote, because he thought he had his man, and the game would have been over before I even got home and had a chance to vote. Further, killing Adrien after my post yesterday would have easily secured victory for him, as it would have framed dtay exceedingly well. Killing Adrien would likely have the same effect, as I’m already on dtay. There is no reason to fake a day off.

Of these three scenario’s, only dtay’s makes much sense to me. If you guys want to make an argument for me being scum, you’ll have to make it yourselves, but from my perspective, these are really the only ways this thing could have gone down last night. Either Sunrise was targeted, or he was not. If he was targeted, then those are the best reasons I can come up with why he was the one who should die last night. As I said, I’ve been thinking about this for almost 24 hours now, reading the messages on my phone as I go, so I’m pretty convinced this is the case. I am of course, after last games debacle, open to persuasion, but it’s going to take a lot of work.

dtay

Best of luck to us.