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(March 8th, 2015, 12:52)Jabbz Wrote: Finish the whole post, then well talk about sunrise.
You mean finish reading your post ? Or something else ?
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Mine, I get the impression you're still parsing it out.
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No it's done, I agree with you on pretty much everything except the Sunrise stuff. I guess I should just write my goddamn post and be done with it. Give me a minute
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Why Sunrise could be scum (and yet I'm still voting for dtay, this is the case that dtay could/should have done or at least considered)
This 4 person end game situation is favorable to scum. In such a case town could decide not to lynch to force scum to act. But in this specific situation Sunrise's claim forces us to play the decisive day as a 3vs1. Most likely is that he's telling the truth, and his story fits rather well, but the fact is that we're forced into a suboptimal situation based only on his word. One could say he deliberately waited until the last day, faking a mysterious "passive ability" until he had to try a fake claim. Thanks to his policy of lynching the vets there's a high chance that such a plan will work.
Now why go through this day instead of lynching me yesterday ?
Yesterday when the dawn came upon us he had 3 choices. Go on me, go on BRick or wait. Simplest thing is to side with BRick on me and hope for someone to go on me as well. In that case that person would be dtay. But dtay said something (I've been trying to find the specific quote but I can't, sorry) about only being 60/40 on the matter and that he could be swayed by good arguments. So it's risky. Sunrise could decide to vote BRick and then change at the last minute, but dtay makes that impossible. So he decides to bus BRick then use the towncred to win. Less risk is involved really, no dtay last minute doubts, and with a 4 people end game where he's the only vet he's pretty sure he can win.
All this to say that Sunrise's credit in the past 2 days isn't all that big. But I'll repeat myself : he's not my prime suspect (although I'd like him to vote because he's lurked too much this game and he shouldn't hold back from the discussion when we're almost 24h in the last day).
Town dtay wouldn't be so blind as to not think of this. Town dtay wouldn't be so blinded by his case (even though he used to be only 60/40 against me yesterday) to not see the other possibilities.
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My problem with that, is that the only thing sunrise has to do is be "persuaded" by dtay in that last 10 minute window, and he wins. Done. No risk, no fuss no muss.
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No dtay would have found that too scummy and changed I think. His goal (if he's town) was to stop scum from changing in the last ten minutes, a post about finally seeing the light and being certain I'm scum 10mn before deadline isn't much better than a simple "Adrien" in red.
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(March 6th, 2015, 13:47)dtay Wrote: (March 6th, 2015, 13:39)BRickAstley Wrote: Ahhhhhhh I'm going crazy, all the votes are either on me or pledged to be switched over on me and there's not a damn thing I can do about it. 
I still want Jabbz and/or sunrise to come over to me, me switching to you is a formality.
It's consistent with how you've played all game, but sunrise is there anything to yoru reasoning besides "Lynch all liars" and the name? The name seems totally in lien with the rest of the names. Which wouldn't be hard to fake, but that just makes it a null tell. And while Brick's confidence in novice lynch is a plausible sum tell I guess, I wouldn't phrase it as lynch all liars, I think it's pretty clear from the context it's not like Brick had more independent information than the rest of us with regards to the novice/adrien dyad, and he didn't try to misrepresent it as such.
He posts a series of what he considers to be persuasive posts, then points out a "flaw" in sunrise's argument for the vote. Then he is going to be suspicious when sunrise agrees with him? Somehow I doubt that.
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In the last 10mn it would have. I admit that it's not a clear situation but Sunrise could have thought it safer to stay where he was. Anyway, as I said I'm sticking to dtay, this is just a theoretical case that I don't want to put too much time into.
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It didn't even have to be int he last ten minutes. Sunrise parked his vote on Brick fairly early, and had plenty of time to be changed. I just don't think the argument is persuasive, as I addressed in my earlier post.
It seems like you and I are largely on the same page, so at this point, we are waiting for input from sunrise and dtay.
Ball is in your court gents.
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Note that even if Sunrise wants to lynch me dtay dies.
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