WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Jabbz]

Unless he persuades me you're scum. I mean what I say, I am looking for good arguments from everyone.

[AdrienIer]

Yes, I meant if the situation stays like this and Sunrise votes for me dtay dies

[AdrienIer]

I think dtay will show up soon he just played his PB22 turn, he'll probably report in his thread and then come here. I'm expecting something like "Adrien your case against Sunrise is ridiculous" somewhere in his first messages, to avoid answering about my remark about him being too superficial.

[AdrienIer]

Apparently I was wrong about him turning up. Good night then (I think you're all US based so not really night for you though).

[dtay]

Apparently I was wrong about him turning up. Good night then (I think you're all US based so not really night for you though).

Probably more common pattern for me is do 1 RB thing then take a few hours break, do another, break, etc (presuming I'm equally free all day).

And Adrien your case against Sunrise is ridiculous.

[dtay]

More seriously, WW time is probably after dinner today.

[Jabbz]

I find it pretty telling that dtay has not responded to this point. I would assume that, at this point, he knows he is treed, and is trying desperately to come up with something that will change the outcome.

[AdrienIer]

I've been thinking about it again and in theoretical-scum-Sunrise's situation I'd have acted pretty much like he did. The risk was low but he made it as low as it can possibly get on a last day.

[dtay]

Played a long game of Twilight Struggle (heavily recommend) actually, but anyway. I'm somewhat annoyed at how the village is about to fall for a scum gambit and Cassandra isn't being listened to, but honestly find this fun regardless. Shrug. If you expect me to muster a large amount of emotional frustration, just not in the cards no matter town or scum or sk.

I'm struggling to figure out what to say to you Jabbz that I haven't already. You're looking at everything through the lens of "would this work for a wolf", and in my case the answer is mostly yes, as it is for every player left (until you/sunrise's yesterday). You're asking "does this series of events make sense for scum-dtay" and not "does this series make MORE sense for scum-dtay as opposed to scum-adrien".

If you applied the same skewed filter to my brick gambit arg you would ask "is there any reason this gambit is implausible", and failing to find any (if you have a reason tell me, but I don't see it), be incredibly convinced adrien was scum. You just decided to apply it to me from the get go, and we're losing cause of it.

Re: jabbz case on me

I don't really disagree with part of the logic of why I'd kill sunrise (or at least you or sunrise). Though not really sure why convincing sunrise onto jabbz would hypothetically be harder than convincing you, but at least the logic for why scum me has to kill one of you two is sound. Except it also makes perfect sense for Adrien to kill sunrise (or you), so I don;t know how you think this is a differentiating factor as opposed to just a null tell.

I don't think what you're saying about framing you makes any sense. I have no idea how i'd explain away your behavior on the prior day, you're obvi town. As far as I can parse, scum-me is mostly apathetic between you and sunrise (some wifom issues between you not liking me but then does it look more suspicious to kill you), and similarly scum-adrien is apathetic between killing you and sunrise (same wifom issues just reversed).

Re: Adrien's Sunrise case - "Town dtay" (me) would definatley discount that. It's possible, yes. But just overly complicated when scum had a reasonably unsuspicious, very very easy, way to win right there. Don't do anything weird in the last few minutes or w/e, just vote for you with like an hour to go. I've pretty much made it clear by that point I want to vote for Adrien, I'm actively trying to get people to switch, why wouldn't a scum Sunrise (or Jabbz), bite on that? Risk of me being insane and flipping back for no reason?

Basically, yes it is literally possible for sunrise to be scum. But similar (and actually more egregious) to how I think about the you/brick gambit, it requires the scum to run stupid, complicated plans that actively harm their chances of winning. Moreover, Jabbz is possibly scum in exactly the same way, so I have to cut in half my chance of guessing scum right. Balance of probabilities is easily lynch you, the guy who didn't have to do anything stupid to explain his actions as scum.

re - percentage citing, just to clarify
And I was 60-40 (or 70-30, please stop misquoting me) in the sense of relative probabilities you and brick are scum. In absolute terms both probabilities are higher because I was ignoring the (in my mind reasonably likely) chance you were both scum. And in any case the fact that sunrise and Jabbz didn't switch yesterday gives them massive

I don't know what weird twisted logic makes you think a scum-me is more likely to ignore a plausible case against a town player than a town me.

Questions to Jabbz -
1) What is convincing you (if it's not just that you're convinced i'm scum) that Adrien is towny?
2) I'm tired atm so can't remember if you stated this in full before (i know adrien has), but why do you think brick gambit'd?

To sunrise - curious what your answers are to Jabbz questions as well and general thoughts

[AdrienIer]

I don't know what weird twisted logic makes you think a scum-me is more likely to ignore a plausible case against a town player than a town me.

Because you don't care, you're not looking for scum you're trying to make someone look bad. You've found your target and therefore you're more superficial in your analysis of the other two.