WW37- For Whom the Bell Trolls

[novice]

Tally as of post 430:

4 votes: Fenn (Lewwyn, novice, zakalwe, Gazglum)
3 votes: Gazglum (Agnes The Orphan, dtay, Jabbz)
2 votes: Novice (Shadeun, Fenn)
1 votes: dtay (Mattimeo)
1 votes: Mattimeo (pindicator)
1 votes: Shadeun (Rowain)

Voting history:

Novice

Gazglum

Gazglum

Gazglum

Gazglum

Gazglum

dtay

dtay

Fenn

Novice

Fenn

Fenn

Mattimeo

novice

Shadeun

Fenn

[pindicator]

Matt, what's your take on Jabbz?

snip

Conclusion: Noise to signal ratio rather high. Seems to restrict usefulness to the approx. 2 hour period before lynches.
Doesn't feel particularly scummy, but can't really pick out anything that indicates he's particularly better than anyone else to keep around.

I asked because:

Were you told you were or were not able to self target Matt?

Why are you interested?

Trying to find out if it's safe to kill me tonight?

x-post:

There's a difference between being forced to reveal your town role in a role madness game, and potentially being forced to invent a fake claim. The former just risks putting town at a slightly higher information disadvantage (sort of; your fellow townies also gain information), while the latter may very well get you lynched on the spot. You've been leaning heavily on Agnes' premise that scum can just claim their own roles whatever they may be, but I really don't think that is the case for every bad guy. If there's a "Mad Cultist" role out there, for example, then he certainly can't do so.

It does get progressively easier to invent fake claims as more genuine roles are revealed, but given that we only had one flip and one claim so far, I think we're still in a position where it's going to be uncomfortable for scum to make the next claim. (And yes, more uncomfortable than it will be for the average townie.) But the window of opportunity will be closing soon enough.

hm, fair point.

Who did you target last night?

Myself. Lack of kill could be due to someone failing the 'can he self target?' WIFOM.

I don't buy how you use your power; it seems very selfish actually. The one explanation that did make sense was you thought Jabbz was scum trying to figure out if he could night kill you, which is what you insinuated yesterday, but if you really think Jabbz is town then why don't you protect someone who's a strong town player? And I'm going through your posts but I really can't find your town reads -- there's a bit about Shaedun but that's it.

Still, why not protect zak or Lewwyn? They lean towards townie in my book and they're both strong players. If you don't trust Gazglum you must think novice is worth protecting, right?

But protecting yourself? That seems selfish and anti-town play. That seems like the play of someone who thinks he's against most of the people here. If you think Jabbz is scum, then it could make sense from a paranoia angle, but since you don't then I think it is far more likely you didn't want to risk being scanned by a potential seer out there than to actually think you were going to be the target of a night 1 kill.

Catching up over the night, but I've been fighting with a TA about a prior program that he forgot to grade and then gave me late points on. And my first final is in a couple hours. So yeah, no promises I'll be able to help push the case, but I REALLY don't like Mattimeo's play.

[zakalwe]

Mattimeo has been bobbing a bit up and down on my scumdar but to say that a doctor is anti-town for self-protecting is a bit much. For all we know he may have prevented a night kill by doing so. It is perhaps slightly convenient, in this case, since it also blocks investigations. (It's probably a real ability, since it would be easy to catch him in a lie if he made it up.)

I was surprised to see him do an apparent full read through of Jabbz back there. (You know you're doing something wrong, when solid contributions are considered scum tells... )

I guess he bears watching, but I don't see him as a great lynch target for today.

[Agnes The Orphan]

Uhh I really should've tried to get a post out last night. Anyway, catching up, we'll see how much I can manage:

I think I view OMGUS differently from you, here. I don't think of it as attacking one's accusers, I think of it as attacking people for perceived bad play.

Well, I guess I can't argue the point if you say you didn't mean what I thought you said. But even then, why were the votes on Novice bad play? Or are you saying that we were attacking him for HIS perceived bad play, in which case, why is that unwarranted?

The latter.
It's not unwarrented. You're allowed to find someone's play sucky. The issue is in connecting that to them being scum, and/or justifying it enough that their play is sucky for other people. And I didn't think the novice case yesterday did that nearly enough, in either respect. Especially in thelight of a similar case being brought to bear on town-novice last game.

[Agnes The Orphan]

Also: your reason for voting for me seems equally weak. "He said some things" (one of which I think was a good point) and "he also questioned the level of information in the game at this point and what we learned from the cult text".

The problem is you have no other content in your posts. D1 you happily parked your vote on Mattimeo today you park it on novice and that's it. You babble happily, friendly with several players making funny comments but hunting scum you do not.

This is absolutely true. Do you really think he's scum, though? To my mind, sure he's not playing very well, but he's also not playing like noob scum, and you can see his progression in the thread - and I would be surprised if such a change was so obvious if he's in a scumteam, because surely some sort of coaching would have gone on.


I really don't like the way the Gazglum wagon has sputtered and died. I think he's easily the strongest suspect, and I don't think his play today has been much of an improvement. I feel like the reason he's lost votes is largely because it was formed so early in the day, and because people were scared as to how easily it took off. I disagree. I don't think it took off because he's village, I think it took off because scum saw the size of early support and thought it would be best to jump on (bandwagoning early if lynch, or, more likely, watching it collapse under its own weight). I need to read up on who exactly goes on that list, though.

But for those people who jumped off, why did you do so? Did Gazglum become any less suspicious, did he really address the points on him? I'm going to get to his replies in a moment, but I really do think that most of the move was prompted by simple inertia.

[Rowain]

This is absolutely true. Do you really think he's scum, though?

He is not playing for town. And please stop this there is progress so he isn't coached or what not. Do you know who plays on his team? There are several who might not be able to do much coaching. Not everyone is a battlehardened scummie like your alter ego .

I need to read up on who exactly goes on that list, though.

Lewwyn and zak moved from Gazglum onto Fenn.

[Agnes The Orphan]

Well this is fun! I accept your pressure, as it shall turn my faults to diamonds. Nobody else want to pile on? Fenn, you are talking the talk but not walking the walk, where is the red vote?

Would anybody on me like to explain for the class what, exactly, the case is? That I didn’t vote Goreripper, a player I didn’t want to vote? I was on through deadline, I would have jumped to Gore to save myself. I didn’t want to vote him, Agnes, because I was making a point that I thought it was a bad lynch. I think I made it clear I didn’t want to vote Mattimeo either.

At this time it looks like we'll have a no lynch, but it could still very easily have swung either way, or even onto you. With last-minute lynches being what they are, it was by no means guaranteed that you'd be able to vote Gore in time.

I only ever had three votes, and was always 2 votes behind the swing. I was hitting refresh, I assure you. If I had got another vote I would have defensive voted Goreripper.

Why didn't you want to get your hands dirty, though? Novice was an unbelievable lynch, even with Fenns vote. Why were you holding back? Why didn't you want to take a stand?

What were my other options? I was already taking heat from Pindicator for my vote jumps, I didn’t really want to add fuel to that fire by jumping onto another lynch that I didn’t believe in. If I voted Matt I would be spending today answering why I wanted to lynch our protection role. Voting Goreripper would be more obviously defensive, but I thought it was a crappy policy lynch and didn’t want to be part of it if I didn’t have to be.

Up till here, it all works. Its not fine, and there are aspects I'd disagree with, but in the limited time I have, I'm glossing pas that. Here is where it goes to custard:

Related, general question, would you have preferred no-lynch over Matt or Commodore being lynched?

In a perfect world, probably no-lynch, but the only way I could have tried for a no-lynch would by voting Matt and putting him in danger of anybody else switching. And the Mattwagon was stinky cheese.

Gazglum is presented with two scenarios - one in which there is a no lynch, one in which goreripper is lynched. And he has no idea which one he wants most! In neither setup does he make a choice. When it's on no lynch, he has no qualms about how easily matt could swing. When it's proposed that he could be hung, he says he's refreshing and paying enough attention that it wont happen - but he doesn't think he could jump off matt? These three statements don't work together. And that's because they can't. Somewhere, in weaving his web of lies, Gazglum stumbled.

He's made a statement bow about which he preferred, and, predictably, it doesn't fit with hos actions. There's a reason for that - nothing he's stated as town can fit with his actions.

Gazglum dithered at the lynch. Why did he either? Because he didn't want to get himself dirty. But he still wanted gorerupper dead. Why? Because he's scum.

Sorry for the absolutely inexcusable formatting, I have no time.

Good post on novice, though...doesn't this at all remind you of last game? Or if you have long enough memories for it, WW27, when Zak/I used a non-engaging town novice to win?

I voted Novice twice last game too. But point taken, if Novice shows me towniness I would be willing to move off him. He hasn’t yet. Still no thoughts on –anybody- being scum, Novice?

I agree, the size of the train on Gazglum is quite disconcerting. Does no one have any other suspicions to bring forth? Any thoughts on his content - on the novice case, for example?

Sooo....disconcerting, but you'll hang around me anyway. And what are YOUR thoughts on the Novice case?
[/quote]

[Fenn]

Time to sort through the rubbish that's piled up

Quickly, before work:

Much as it tempts me to go for Lewwyn, novice looks worse - his defence against Gazglum's case is unconvincing and I don't like the way he voted for me - using the exact same argument as last time, except now there's a handy train to leap on.

"Last time" was day 1 when I was busy lynching Goreripper, remember?

Hmm, I thought you'd gone after me earlier today. Looks like your most recent post against me was during N1. My mistake then.

You spend your entire post engaging with Lewwyn and discussing his points against you. Then you drop off a vote on me in the final paragraph. Classic scum behaviour. If you find me scummy, why aren't you responding to the points I brought up against you?

What points? That I was throwing my vote around D1? To go over the same ground yet again, those votes were always intended to provoke a response to give me a better read on the target. You're attaching far too much importance to my D1 pressure votes to back up your vote for me.

Oh, and:

OK I reread day 1 and I'm sorry to say, Gazglum, that it didn't leave me much wiser.
Although worst case, if the setup is cult-based there may be just Goreripper and one other scum present on day 1.

Hellooo, cult leader. How convenient that your scenario for there being a cult is an obviously implausible one - good way to claim later that there isn't a cult after all.

Once you flip scum, you mean? Or what is it you're envisioning happening that will let me claim there is no cult? I'm mentioning a worst case scenario.

Also I thought you were the one who was arguing that there is no cult, and that the cult message is disinformation from a player?

Show me where I argued that the cult message was disinformation. I only ever said that it was probably message from a player, and didn't have much bearing on whether or not, and not at all that there was no cult. This is some bald-faced misquoting from somebody who's raised a hue and cry about being misquoted.

Shadeun reads town to me. Can't imagine a new scum player holding back from placing his vote, or announcing his intention to post little, etc. Perhaps weak play but not that of a scum player being coached.

Also town read for Agnes. Early D2 play smelled of grabbing at the most convenient cases and arguing about what OMGUS means, but I like their renewed push on Gazglum. Reads fairly towny on D1 too, making good reads after the mass claim rigmarole ended.

zakalwe's a null tell, he's made the effort to point out obvious flaws in people's arguments and say who he suspects or doesn't but he still doesn't make much of an impression. Could be attempting to give the appearance of activity without meaningful contribution, but it might just be his style.

[Fenn]

Well I've made a case on Novice, I feel pretty good about it. But if other people don't want to join me by the end of the day, I would be willing to move Fenn. Two or three posts today puts him in the scummy middle ground of being clearly engaged and aware of what is going on, but not actually taking any leads. And he's pushing candidates based on other people's arguments.

Also,

Seems to lack a bit of self-awareness - aren't you voting for Novice again, except now with train to leap on? At least a 2 person train (me and Shadeun), whereas when Novice voted you, you only had 1 vote.

What do you think about your reasons for your Day 1 vote on Novice? What's your opinion of his play overall, now?

As for Pindicator, I tihnk he has felt pretty towny.

On Day 1 I wasn't looking to lynch novice; I wanted to force a response out him to my point about his Goreripper survivor = scum reasoning. I am looking for his lynch now, and his Day 2 play doesn't make him look any townier than before.


Rowain, what do you think about the cases on me/Gazglum/novice? You've been focused on dtay/Shadeun/Mattimeo so far if I recall.

[novice]

You spend your entire post engaging with Lewwyn and discussing his points against you. Then you drop off a vote on me in the final paragraph. Classic scum behaviour. If you find me scummy, why aren't you responding to the points I brought up against you?

What points? That I was throwing my vote around D1? To go over the same ground yet again, those votes were always intended to provoke a response to give me a better read on the target. You're attaching far too much importance to my D1 pressure votes to back up your vote for me.

Your "pressure votes" were all immediately refuted, and you backed out of them immediately. Doesn't read like pressure, it reads like searching for a vote that sticks.

Oh, and:

OK I reread day 1 and I'm sorry to say, Gazglum, that it didn't leave me much wiser.
Although worst case, if the setup is cult-based there may be just Goreripper and one other scum present on day 1.

Hellooo, cult leader. How convenient that your scenario for there being a cult is an obviously implausible one - good way to claim later that there isn't a cult after all.

Once you flip scum, you mean? Or what is it you're envisioning happening that will let me claim there is no cult? I'm mentioning a worst case scenario.

Also I thought you were the one who was arguing that there is no cult, and that the cult message is disinformation from a player?

Show me where I argued that the cult message was disinformation. I only ever said that it was probably message from a player, and didn't have much bearing on whether or not, and not at all that there was no cult.

OK, so why am I scummy for leaving open the possibility of there being no cult (according to you)?

And I'd still like to know what it is you're envisioning happening that will let me claim there is no cult?