Perpy's Puzzling Poets (Northstar1989 and Old Lion of the Balseraphs)

[Northstar1989]

Ears of gold, sheafs of green- lustrous yellow edible thing...



Corn, corn! They call it thus, and over its supply they often fuss!


Or people's glory grows today- as our city's housing, for clowns dark and fey!




Our people's numbers are a glorious thing- second only to the Vampire King!




Yet is seems we are very dark and sad clowns today- our people's happiness now has such a sway!



Why, how, I cannot say- but our clowns are more downcast than the vampires' prey!


Perhaps... They settled near the glorious remnants of olden days...


OOC: The only reasonable explanation for the vampire's happiness is that they settled near Remnants of Patria! Which is HUGE for the Calabim, as it means they can support a much large population- and thus acquire much more XP for their vampires...

Also, somehow, my rivals seem to be getting technologies on EVERY village-exploration... This bothers me, as it is quite unlikely from a statistical standpoint. I got 2 techs from 3 villages, and if the odds of getting a tech were 20% on each village that means I had about 1 in 3 odds of this... However for THREE of my rivals (the Calabim appear to have gotten 2 techs as well) to get 2 techs out of what could, at most, have only been 3 villages each (and was likely less), and another rival to get a tech as well, is quite disturbing... It makes me wonder if the mapmaker might have set up some kind of script to ensure techs from villages- but in that case why did I only get Gold from my first tribal village? (the one right at my starting-location)

[Molach]

You are 4th in happiness, vampires are 5th with 55%..?
Having pemnants near one civ's starting point and not others is seriously unbalancing therefore unlikely, natural map or no.

[Qgqqqqq]

It makes me wonder if the mapmaker might have set up some kind of script to ensure techs from villages- but in that case why did I only get Gold from my first tribal village?

There is no possible way this could be achieved. It is absolutely 100% not codable into a MP game.

[Northstar1989]

You are 4th in happiness, vampires are 5th with 55%..?
Having pemnants near one civ's starting point and not others is seriously unbalancing therefore unlikely, natural map or no.

Woops! I totally misread that in a hurry!


Regards,
Northstar

[GermanJoey]

I got 2 techs from 3 villages, and if the odds of getting a tech were 20% on each village that means I had about 1 in 3 odds of this...

what? assuming a 20% chance to get a tech from each village, you have only a 10.4% chance (20%*20%*80% + 20%*80%*20% + 80%*20%*20% + 20%*20%*20%) chance to get techs from at least two out of three, including the chance to get 3 out of 3. and yet you're complaining about your great luck because other people got lucky too?? why??!??

[Northstar1989]

I got 2 techs from 3 villages, and if the odds of getting a tech were 20% on each village that means I had about 1 in 3 odds of this...

what? assuming a 20% chance to get a tech from each village, you have only a 10.4% chance (20%*20%*80% + 20%*80%*20% + 80%*20%*20% + 20%*20%*20%) chance to get techs from at least two out of three, including the chance to get 3 out of 3. and yet you're complaining about your great luck because other people got lucky too?? why??!??

Eek, math-fail. I incorrectly adapted a method for calculating that I would get AT LEAST ONE tech, to calculating if I would get 2-3 techs...


That only makes THREE of four of my rivals getting 2 free techs, and the remaining rival getting one free tech even more disturbing... (if I am correctly deducing their numbers of free techs from score) The odds of that are ASTRONOMICALLY low...

My 20% probability was actually a very inaccurate approximation, though. Even for three of my rivals to get just one tech is extremely unlikely- considering that a free tech is just one of a number of "Big Good" rewards that can occur with 20% probability after exploring a village (Scouts never get the negative possible consequences, which roughly doubles the chance of a Big Good to 40% if exploring using a Scout instead of a Warrior- but it is still chosen out of something like at least 5 different possible Big Good rewards... So, at 8% odds, the chances of even TWO of my rivals getting ONE tech was incredibly low- my jaw had already hit the floor when I got two techs out of 3 villages at around 8% odds each village of a tech...)


I can tell you, I play fair in Multiplayer- but in Single Player I have no qualms about cheating the RNG (since it doesn't hurt anyone but the AI), and even then I could literally re-gen the RNG 40 or 50 times just to get two techs out of two villages out of 3... So, while I know I played fair, that so many of my rivals got so many free techs makes me wonder if there wasn't some scripting (by the mapmaker, which would be totally legit) or RNG-cheating going on by one of the players (though there's no saying who- it equally likely could have been any one of them, and probably wouldn't have been more than 1 of my 4 opponents...) Alternatively, and this is the theory I'm officially sticking with until proven otherwise, divine intervention or fate anyone?

Incredibly unlikely things happen- but when they happen to a particular person (i.e. me) over and over again, I start to wonder just what could be going on besides shear random forces at work... I still remember how I placed in the last two slots of my university housing-lottery (and then again twice in my dorm building lotteries- but those were not random, and based on subjective assessments of your "fit" for that particular community...) the two years I entered into it, for instance- at some insanely low probability... (more than 2,000 students in my class year entered in the lottery each year, and maybe 6-10 students got each time slot...) Or for that matter, how I still managed to find open rooms despite this when by all means no rooms should have been available. So, is it fate? Is it luck? Is it divine intervention? Who knows?


Regards,
Northstar

[Qgqqqqq]

Northstar, shit happens. Your obsession with odds and luck is annoying, and especially so when you have (by your own admission) got quite lucky in your own results. I think it would be a lot healthier if you didn't think or post about it, and avoided dwelling on it in general. It's not something that's going to change, so why think about it?

[Northstar1989]

Northstar, shit happens. Your obsession with odds and luck is annoying, and especially so when you have (by your own admission) got quite lucky in your own results. I think it would be a lot healthier if you didn't think or post about it, and avoided dwelling on it in general. It's not something that's going to change, so why think about it?

I wouldn't categorize any of this as "shit". Nobody has been *harmed* by these rare happenings (yet), since they've benefitted all players relatively equally (and myself even more than my rivals). It just gives me cause to wonder, and cause to keep an open and curious mind as to what might be going on...

Don't you want to understand the world around you (even when it might be virtual) Q?

Now anyways, stop ruining my clownish fun,
I will rhyme and reason, 'til this game be done!


Regards,
Northstar

[Northstar1989]

The turns are currently awry methinks:

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid530985


But our clowns will soon be back up to their usual mischievous hijinks!


Regards,
Northstar

[Bobchillingworth]

It just gives me cause to wonder, and cause to keep an open and curious mind as to what might be going on...

It apparently gave you cause to wonder if I used maphacks to give techs to your opponents, you delusional, dissembling moron. Do you understand that when you throw around wild accusations of cheating and subterfuge that you're impugning the reputations of actual people, who have invested dozens if not hundreds of hours in becoming part of the RB community? Do you realize that other human beings might resent being constantly condescended to by someone whose explanation for a 1/300 occurrence is "cheating, God or spontaneous machine intelligence"? Is it your intention to alienate yourself from the entirety of RB?


Get your fucking act together.