[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

So last night in the quick SIM I did I figured out a way to get the Settler #2 out yet again another turn earlier. This turn I'm putting a turn into Warrior, using the Pig & GHM. When we switch eventually switch back to Warrior before the Settler#2, the Warrior finishes a turn earlier than it would have in the other SIMs. Which in turn gets that Settler out on T41, to be settled on T43. I didn't follow through on that SIM all the way to the T50 for end comparisons (since I started getting tired), but maybe I'll try another one later. But since we are only 5 turns from finding out where our Copper is, it's probably not really worth trying another SIM at this point. The decision I've made this turn won't change anything at all between now and when we finish BW. Since that piece of info could change everything.

Oh, and this has us tied for 1st in Production (at 5) for the moment. And we're tied for Average in CY. Most of the others seem to be ahead of us in GNP, so I'm guessing most of them have decent river/water/oasis tiles they are already working.

[MindyMcCready]

So last night in the quick SIM I did I figured out a way to get the Settler #2 out yet again another turn earlier. This turn I'm putting a turn into Warrior, using the Pig & GHM. When we switch eventually switch back to Warrior before the Settler#2, the Warrior finishes a turn earlier than it would have in the other SIMs. Which in turn gets that Settler out on T41, to be settled on T43. I didn't follow through on that SIM all the way to the T50 for end comparisons (since I started getting tired), but maybe I'll try another one later. But since we are only 5 turns from finding out where our Copper is, it's probably not really worth trying another SIM at this point. The decision I've made this turn won't change anything at all between now and when we finish BW. Since that piece of info could change everything.

Oh, and this has us tied for 1st in Production (at 5) for the moment. And we're tied for Average in CY. Most of the others seem to be ahead of us in GNP, so I'm guessing most of them have decent river/water/oasis tiles they are already working.

Expansive is a nice trait, especially on a tight map like this.

Regarding putting hammers into a barracks (not sure if you did it), we need warriors badly for animal taming, scouting, and settler/worker escorting. They're also the cheapest MP happiness, so they're a good investment.

The rate of return on a barracks is pretty low if you don't need the culture.

Discovering BW will create the need for new sims, but also new discussions on strategy. Not sure if you've decided on tech choice post BW? My agriculture scenario completed the settler on T39 although I don't think that it was better but it might find new support with that new corn discovery and/or whatever else we might uncover.

[HitAnyKey]

Regarding putting hammers into a barracks (not sure if you did it), we need warriors badly for animal taming, scouting, and settler/worker escorting. They're also the cheapest MP happiness, so they're a good investment.

The rate of return on a barracks is pretty low if you don't need the culture.

I did switch it to Warrior, as per my other post. With the city working the Pig & GH Mine for this turn, while it grows to Size 3. Doing this is what my SIM showed being able to get the Settler#2 on T41.
Next turn is when we start the Settler#1 which will finish on T28. If the timing and location of the Bear in the north works out, we'll be able to settle the city on T30.

I have the tech path currently planned as Fishing-Wheel-Pottery-Agri for the order after BW. Will see what happens when we know where our Copper is. But regardless, Fishing is next, I think.

[MindyMcCready]

I'll have to doublecheck again next turn, but I believe Grimace is probably splitting his EPs 1/2 and 1/2 between me and Commodore.

Has Grimace met Retep? Asked another way, was this 1/2 - 1/2 a decision point or an AI choice? In Grimace getting our graphs it may not be a relevant question, but it may be a relevant question on whether he's taking this game seriously and/or whether he considers you a viable threat.

Are we still on track to see Grimace's graphs in short order?

The 3 points on Grimace - 1 point on CommodTay doesn't make sense so me. If I were Grimace I could easily conclude that you've met only one other Civ (CommodTay) are are choosing to put 3/4 into me while CommodTay are the bigger threat, so you're attacking. Alternatively, with 4 points on him he might just think that you assigned because you met him first and just forgot. It's actually less of an indicator in a way.

[HitAnyKey]

Hmm, didn't think of it like that. But a little too late to change what my hand looks like. I can switch it to 2/2 split now...we'd still get his graphs long before any attack would happen from either side. I know for a fact he met Commodore (his scout was right behind mine as we hit his borders). Doubt he met retap, since his scout was heading westwards towards me when all three of our scouts met up (north of Grimace) a long time ago. No idea where retap's scout could be now.
Just like I don't know where Grimace's scout went. He was headed N/NW from his capital, and I expected him to reach my northern lake by now (and as such know where I'm located). Maybe he sent it more directly north or NW, and as such completely missed me. Since my scout came from his north, maybe he guessed that I'm north of him, along with Commodore. Both of our scouts popped up on his border from the exact same northern spot on basically the same turn.

With him also putting 2EPs per turn into me, the amount I need to get his graphs keep increasing. I just logged in to doublecheck.
Right now I need 35 EPs to see Grimace's graphs. I have 26 right now. So that's at least 3 turns (probably 4) if I keep doing the 3/1 split. If I switch to 4/0 now, he'll definitely know I changed from putting some into another player to then put it all into him. If I switch it to 2/2, it'll take 5-7 turns to get his graphs. Again, long before we actually need the graphs. But I was also trying to keep a big enough lead on him to keep him from getting our graphs too early. That's where my thinking was. If you really think I should go 2/2 at this point, that works for me too. It's probably what I might have done to begin with, but chose the 3/1 for some unknown reason. Though I probably would have actually gone 4/0 on him, which is why you're saying I should have done that originally...but too late on that.

[MindyMcCready]

Hmm, didn't think of it like that. But a little too late to change what my hand looks like. I can switch it to 2/2 split now...we'd still get his graphs long before any attack would happen from either side. I know for a fact he met Commodore (his scout was right behind mine as we hit his borders). Doubt he met retap, since his scout was heading westwards towards me when all three of our scouts met up (north of Grimace) a long time ago. No idea where retap's scout could be now.
Just like I don't know where Grimace's scout went. He was headed N/NW from his capital, and I expected him to reach my northern lake by now (and as such know where I'm located). Maybe he sent it more directly north or NW, and as such completely missed me. Since my scout came from his north, maybe he guessed that I'm north of him, along with Commodore. Both of our scouts popped up on his border from the exact same northern spot on basically the same turn.

With him also putting 2EPs per turn into me, the amount I need to get his graphs keep increasing. I just logged in to doublecheck.
Right now I need 35 EPs to see Grimace's graphs. I have 26 right now. So that's at least 3 turns (probably 4) if I keep doing the 3/1 split. If I switch to 4/0 now, he'll definitely know I changed from putting some into another player to then put it all into him. If I switch it to 2/2, it'll take 5-7 turns to get his graphs. Again, long before we actually need the graphs. But I was also trying to keep a big enough lead on him to keep him from getting our graphs too early. That's where my thinking was. If you really think I should go 2/2 at this point, that works for me too. It's probably what I might have done to begin with, but chose the 3/1 for some unknown reason. Though I probably would have actually gone 4/0 on him, which is why you're saying I should have done that originally...but too late on that.

If his 2-2 was an AI thing, he probably hasn't noticed anything so no harm in switching to all points.

If instead he HAS noticed, then he's suspicious anyway and 3-1 or 4-0 doesn't change anything.

The benefit of going earlier is that we may have a better idea of what tech choices he's making. If CivStats shows the entire history I guess that we can figure it out retroactively. I didn't see a filter for entire history on the website which suggests that getting graphs on him as soon as possible is a priority.

So unless you can get the history of CivStats, I'd vote for all EPs on Grimace starting now.

Last point, if he changes his EPs that will be information. That will tell us that he has noticed.

[HitAnyKey]

I have logged back in to put full EP on Grimace. Once I get his graphs, then I'll start putting some into the others. With any luck (if he even notices), he'll just think I decided to get his graphs first before moving on to someone else.
As a aside, you can view the entire history (for now) on Civstats. Just click on his name. You'll be able to see just his activity dating back to the beginning of the game. At some point in time civstats starts to lose that history, but for now you can see it all.
EOT8 (3640BC) his score increased from 32 to 38
EOT16 (3320BC) his score increased to 44
EOT17 (3280BC) his score increased to 49

The first would be his getting Meditation. The next would another tech increase I think. Then the most recent one would be growth, since that matches the 5pts I got for my growth.

In comparison, we got Mining EOT8 (our increase from 32 to 38) and grew EOT15 (our increase from 38 to 43). That kind of tracking is not something I ever really do.

[HitAnyKey]

If his 2-2 was an AI thing, he probably hasn't noticed anything so no harm in switching to all points.

On this point, unless I'm mistaken the system would not automatically split him to do a 2/2 EP distribution. The turn we all met, it went like this. I moved my scout next to his border (meeting him). He then logged in to play his turn, and the AI would have automatically assigned 4 EP/turn on me. It was after Grimace played that turn, that Commodore logged in to play his turn, at which point he would have moved his scout in range to meet Grimace. I'm almost positive the game would not change the 4 to me to be 2 to each of us.
The following turn when Grimace logged in to discover that Commodore met him on the previous turn, that's when he would have manually had to set the 2/2 split.

[HitAnyKey]

So there's a chance we'll lose our scout next turn to a Lion.



We grew to size 3 this turn, as did Donovan/Adrien. That puts us as the only 2 at size 3 for this turn. The others will likely follow suit within a turn or two.






Now we just work on our Settler and hope the Bear in the north is in that NW grass tile when we are ready to move onto our hill. Right now it's not looking good for me returning the scout as the second unit there. So if the Bear is not where we need him to be, it could delay settling by a couple turns.

Also confirmed that we are in the deep south on this Toriod map, so that means that area down there is safe. There might be another civ to the SW area, but at least directly south of us is land just for us with almost no competition. This reminds me why Toroid maps can be kinda annoying. If I plant a city on that hill on the water north of the Whales to be able to build a Lighthouse and get those Whales & Clam, that means there are tiles in the BFC that would not be available. Though if I just think of it as if there are Peaks there, that's the same thing. But yeah, just means 3 tiles that would not be available to the city. Or we settle inland and have some other coastal city make the work boats for those water resources, and just don't get the lighthouse benefit for the water tiles. But that's a decision for much later.

[HitAnyKey]

Btw, Borsche is still Size 1. Did he start out building a Settler? Or go Worker-Settler or something like that? Pretty crazy that at T19 he is still Size 1.