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[Spoilers] Ceterum Peter censet Carthaginem fore triumphatrix - Adrien + Miguelito

We still have one turn's notice for Kiwi don't we ?
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He can road the tile with the CKN on it, then 1t the city from the tile 1W of Childhood's end. That's why a scout would help.
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The problem with losing Hulk is that he can then fork ToS & Emerald; looks like most of our force is in the East, so can we defend Emerald?

Do you have a rough estimate of how many Knights are in the fog?

It looks like we almost need to force him into a focused attack someplace so that we can bring our Catapults to bear on his stack. Although all-in-all things don't look rosy. frown
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I just had to know:


Great! So defending Kiwi is not completely illusionary.
Do we pull out everything from Hulk, or leave the spears there, to let some knights crash against 40% culture (not all the knights will be shock I suppose, though most C1)?
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I'd guess he has his unseen knights staged around that SW city, where they can move to either front if needed. Do we know if he has Engineering yet?

IMO, force him to use his Knights against Culture & Fortification bonuses (was that included in the 75% odds calculation?) then counter with the Cats and Numids. It'll be significantly harder for us to break his attack if he can scatter it and nullify our Cats.
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(April 6th, 2015, 09:21)Dreylin Wrote: The problem with losing Hulk is that he can then fork ToS & Emerald; looks like most of our force is in the East, so can we defend Emerald?

It's a problem, definitely. Emerald can be defended by 3 good cities whipping muskets (and we do have a little time, at least). We also can try to ship in reinforcements from Pfeffi. The city has 20% culture right now only, maybe a walls would be good some time.
What could really screw us there is if Al decides to move in though. But I don't think he'd have something to gain, as THH would take it away from him immediately. Could be wishful thinking. Maybe we can deter him with muskets from making a WC/axe/spear attack.

Quote:Do you have a rough estimate of how many Knights are in the fog?

My count of his total knights last turn was 18. The one at Childhood's end is new imo. Considering he has not brought a massive stack to the east, it's quite probable that more knights are waiting at The Hermitage to 1t Hulk next turn, with the road built. We can scout with that warrior, but he could also take a medic I promotion and be useful in the future.

Quote:It looks like we almost need to force him into a focused attack someplace so that we can bring our Catapults to bear on his stack.

We have 2 cats ready to hit Hulk next turn if he wants to mass forces there, 4 in 2turns (or six, if we don't move any towards Kiwi - I don't think it'd be wise) What's good btw is if THH takes Hulk , we shouldn't lose a single tile, because TOS has 4th ring. If he stacks there, those units will be very exposed. Of course he could burn the city as well.

Quote:Although all-in-all things don't look rosy. frown

Not at all frown.

Quote:I'd guess he has his unseen knights staged around that SW city, where they can move to either front if needed. Do we know if he has Engineering yet?


Can't tell of this turn, but 2 ago he was still moving 2tiles / turn on roads. I think I'm seeing half a bridge at Virgin Planet though, those don'T appear before construction, right? And he has no other motivation for contru than engineering, because CKNs.

Quote:IMO, force him to use his Knights against Culture & Fortification bonuses (was that included in the 75% odds calculation?) then counter with the Cats and Numids. It'll be significantly harder for us to break his attack if he can scatter it and nullify our Cats.

In fact, one of the spears has a 25% bonus, hadn't conisered that. Another one has 5%. We could defend with 5 spears + 2 meatshield axes. Enough to fight of the six knights we're seeing. It's just that more might be in the fog. Might be worth to sacrifice that warrior.
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Any more thoughts on how to organize our defense? If not I'll play soon. Also still thinking if to sacrifice that warrior to get vision onto The Hermitage and see if we can defend Hulk for 1 turn at least.
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I can't think of something else. I'll let you know that a c1 spear with 25% fortifications has a 50/50 chance against a shock knight.
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(April 6th, 2015, 13:57)AdrienIer Wrote: I can't think of something else. I'll let you know that a c1 spear with 25% fortifications has a 50/50 chance against a shock knight.
Is that right? 11 vs. 8.4 by my read. Civ4 odds are weird.
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(April 6th, 2015, 14:06)Commodore Wrote:
(April 6th, 2015, 13:57)AdrienIer Wrote: I can't think of something else. I'll let you know that a c1 spear with 25% fortifications has a 50/50 chance against a shock knight.
Is that right? 11 vs. 8.4 by my read. Civ4 odds are weird.

it's 25% forification + 40% cultural defense. But now I'm going to sim it.
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