[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

So I have confirmed that getting a city across on that island will get us the extra trade routes, bumping every city to be +2 gpt from the base +1 gpt. The SIM I ran had us getting that Ivory/Fur city first, and doing so really helped with allowing a handful of whips that I found useful.
Current sim had us getting that island city (if founded right on that southern coast) on T77, with Mathematics also being done at the end of that turn. By that time I was no longer really tracking what my workers were doing and I had multiple Archers and Axemen completed. Knowing where our Horses are in 6 turns could change a lot of this, especially if we decide to try to capture a city from Grimace down by the Marble. Probably would have also been good to make another worker during that time period, but with so many variables come those later turns, I didn't want to go into that much depth...or deal with figuring out what to do with additional workers.

[MindyMcCready]

So I have confirmed that getting a city across on that island will get us the extra trade routes, bumping every city to be +2 gpt from the base +1 gpt. The SIM I ran had us getting that Ivory/Fur city first, and doing so really helped with allowing a handful of whips that I found useful.
Current sim had us getting that island city (if founded right on that southern coast) on T77, with Mathematics also being done at the end of that turn. By that time I was no longer really tracking what my workers were doing and I had multiple Archers and Axemen completed. Knowing where our Horses are in 6 turns could change a lot of this, especially if we decide to try to capture a city from Grimace down by the Marble. Probably would have also been good to make another worker during that time period, but with so many variables come those later turns, I didn't want to go into that much depth...or deal with figuring out what to do with additional workers.

ICTR,..that city will instantly pay for itself. So that seems like a slam-dunk to me,...your thoughts?

Our working assumption will have to be that that is someone else's land so we'll have to militarize it accordingly. This boosts Archery as a tech choice.

I was running through some combat and defending the marble city will get a bit dicey if Grimace pushes for swords. Against a C1 Sword, a C1 axe needs 25% fortify (or 20% culture + 5% fort) before it gets odds on defending against swords. We can defend with axes,...but we don't have that cost effective defenders advantage until we get catapults or unless we divert to Masonary for cheap walls.



Sword Attacking Odds:

Defending Marble city flatlands
C1 Sword vs Archer (no hills, no fort, no culture): 94.20%
C1 Sword vs Archer (25% fort, 20% culture): 68.9%
C1 Sword vs CG1 Archer (25% fort, 20% culture): 63.1%
C1 Sword vs CG2 Archer (25% fort, 20% culture): 43.2%

C1 Sword vs Axe (no fort, no culture): 77.8%
C1 Sword vs Axe (25% fort): 65.6%
C1 Sword vs Axe (25% fort, 20% culture): 32.1%
C1 Sword vs C1 Axe (no fort, no culture): 73%
C1 Sword vs C1 Axe (25% fort): 36.3%
C1 Sword vs C1 Axe (25% fort, 20% culture): 28.3%

For our C2 city (Hungry) on hills
C1 Sword vs Archer (hills, 25% fort, 20% culture): 30.4%
C1 Sword vs CG1 Archer (hills, 25% fort, 20% culture):26.2%
C2 HA vs Archer (hills, 25% fort, 20% culture): 34%
C2 HA vs CG1 Archer (hills, 25% fort, 20% culture): 29.7%
C2 HA vs C1 Spear (hills, 25% fort, 20% culture: 8.9%

So we're being pulled in several directions with this ICTR. The high value of the ICTR and the existing probability that Grimace goes ape over our aggression is reducing the value of that somewhat. Grimace may not respond aggressively since, for all he know, the Marble city is right next to our capital,...that possibility might temper his response.

I think that it's my preferece for aggression that's making me want to take the Marble city rather than a strictly better path:

Take Marble city
+strategically more land
+high productivity location
+weaken Grimace enough that we can kill him later

Don't take Marble City
+Economically better due to ICTR focus
+Skip archery to get Writing earlier
+May allow undisputed access to stone island
+May allow more resources for Western choke
+May allow more resources to keep Borshce off of our landmass
-May Lose access to southeastern island

I guess my thoughts would be to continue with what we're doing. City 4 and city 5,...those two powerful cities should be able to provide the necessary support to marble city. Next, City #7 (since marble is #6) is the ICTR depending on what the map reveals of the stone island and/or the westward spear.

Looks like we'll be crashing the economy pretty hard either way, so we'll really need to focus on those cottages.

Lastly, on the stone island we have 2 strategies:
1.Get that foothold for ICTR and then push hard for 4+ cities so that it can defend itself.
2.Get that foothold for ICTR and be satisfied. If it's someone else's mainland we accept being kicked off at some point in the future since OB is now teched and we're getting ICTR elsewhere.

[MindyMcCready]

Hey HAK,

Have you updated your sandbox? If so, can you post your latest?

I've got some time tonight and I'd like to run a sim to get a sense of how many cities we can support before we crash the econ. I'm not used to playing on Monarch and don't have a good sense of that.

[HitAnyKey]

Attached is the sandbox as of T49 (which is next turn in the actual game). I think I have everything correct. The only minor difference is I somehow got something slightly wrong with the total amount of beakers, since I think the actual game I have a few more beakers than I do in the sim. Don't know if there is any way to fix that without starting from scratch again, which I don't feel like doing.

[HitAnyKey]

On another note, GermanJoey is really flying on his REXing. He just got out his 4th city this turn(T48). Ours isn't due until T55.

[spacetyrantxenu]

So I have confirmed that getting a city across on that island will get us the extra trade routes

How were you able to determine this?

[HitAnyKey]

How were you able to determine this?

In my sandbox I built a city over on that landmass and it gave the better trade routes. I've been building that as a small island until we're able to see more details about it to know how big it is.

[spacetyrantxenu]

Confirming in the sandbox doesn't necessarily mean anything in the live game. The size of the island doesn't matter. Whether or not it is an island separate landmass/island is what counts for ICTRs.

Edit for clarity.

[HitAnyKey]

Confirming in the sandbox doesn't necessarily mean anything in the live game. The size of the island doesn't matter. Whether or not it is an island is what counts for ICTRs.

Don't know where my brain was/is. I suppose it's possible that bit of land wraps all the way around somewhere to still connect to us.
But I don't think that's going to change my plan. I still want Fur/Ivory City#5 and a city across the water near the Stone for City#6, even if it doesn't give ICTR. I simply want to start securing that land. And just hope it's at least as far away from someone else as Borsche's Stone is from me.

[HitAnyKey]

A handful of score increases again this turn. I'm able to understand and figure out a few of them, but I'm just about at my limits of tracking Score changes. So probably within the next couple I'm just going to stop. I think I got about as much useful information as I can from tracking them. With everyone having 3 cities and working towards 4 or more, it's just about at the point of being impossible to track the numbers.

Nothing else all that special this turn. Sleepy grew, and is now working on the Settler. Hungry finishes it's Worker next turn, to move onto an Axe.