WW38: The Story of the Stories

[Ichabod]

Wow, and I asked for it, right? Those quiet types are really something, sometimes.

Anyway, I need to sleep now, will comment more later. My head is kinda heavy right now.

[Goreripper]

In the hellish darkness of Grignr's cryptic airplane tomb, the energetic Ecordian records his thoughts on the crafty villains and penumdulous fools on his list:
-Jowy buttered Grignr up? A vile rite that means the terrible poet must be a cannibal. His poems may be forced and may be not; Grignr reasons that without the veracity of confirmation no one knows. He probably tells the truth about his poems but that is still no sure proof to innocence!
-Mattimeo is the only wench among the party and makes love well for one without a nose of opacity! She is also active and never lurks within the darkness and shadows like the schemers, instead showing her arguments like flowers lustfully enhanced by the moonlight. Schemers and their patsies are trying to mislynch her fair neck but cannot produce clear cases within their pudging fists.
-AdrienIer, a lifeless abominable golem says much but his words are just dry wind without passion or bite. He wishes to be seen but not heard like a child! If Molach is innocent then some more of his voters were scheming and this lifeless blatherskite seems most likely to Grignr!
-Shadeun tried to save his scheming friend but was thrown into the vile hell-pits of Airline. Grignr's heart is with his fellow sufferer, though he brought it upon himself for taking the appearance of a Pitt.
-Zakalwe charms Grignr's simple barbaric heart as only a disabled behatted squirrel can but he has found no nuts on this day. The townsmen tell stories of the tiny rodent on their side, leading them to glory and slaying wolves but here the little one seems glad to scheme in the dank bowels of obtusity. His sadistic request for the trickster to make him a poet seems suspicious to Grignr as well!
-Novice schemes in plain sight, as he tried to rescue his clever friend in the end with cautious and cowardly insinuations. His sinister promise his power to be unleashed in three days time should send a chill into the churning guts of any honest man!
[i]Here the list seems more hasty as if the barbarian had to put away his carvings for reasons of turbulence.[/b]
Bobchilingsworth, Pindicator, and Krill are all unworthy of trusting but each may have reasons, like style, busyness, or fear, of seeming that way.
[i]The scrawl broke off then, but charged by some mysterious benefactor with the holy power of two votes Grignr could not be silenced for long![i]

[pindicator]

Day 1 read is done. Those novice and Shadeun votes look really bad, which is captain obvious territory with how it's been hashed, but even on the re-read when you're expecting them, they still look bad.

Someone that hit my radar on the re-read (again) was AdrienIer. He was one of the first people on Gazglum, said he was just voting for him for pressure. He made a comment about Rowain that I don't agree with at all:

Rowain is playing a solid D1, town points for driving the day.

Meiz I was talking about not voting. No obvious vote (except Krill but I'm tired of voting on meta grounds), I'm going to take some time to think and reread

The thing is, I don't agree with the statement that Rowain is driving the day. He's doing his normal Rowain thing, standing back, asking questions, letting the first day happen. Right before this post he was explaining the difference between what Krill is used to in WW and what RB does; and also he was talking about the deadline time question. (Unless this is some pun on "driving the day" relating to Rowain talking about the time of the deadline? If so that one is over my head.)

Another thing is when Molach makes his joke claim, AdrienIer is the one mentioning how it would make a drawn game with no way for scum to win. Although I could get a little WIFOM with this one and say a wolf would ask Brick privately instead of posting it in the main thread.

Coming back to Rowain, he makes an interesting pick up:

AdrienIer votes in a way Meiz

Well Gazglum is back, I suppose [vote]Meiz[vote] is the next most suspiscious on meta grounds.

He answered a tally with

Wait didn't my vote register on post 196 ? Not that I really care, I'll move it soon.

but has not done so at all.

He votes later to Molach and then gives a broader explanation:

Ichabod I did revenge votes last game. Two or three times actually.

I find Meiz and Gazglum my second and third scummiest. Meiz hasn't really defended himself and his wagon dissolved itself even so. And I can't find the good'ol Gazglum in this game, his posts are slightly less spontaneous. But it's just a hunch so I'll just keep it in mind and vote for Molach or Meiz.

This right as the Gazglum wagon is starting. This whole pattern of 'vote Gazglum', find reason to move off, find reason to suspect but not vote back on to me is scummy. I don't think it's as bad as novice and Shadeun's votes, but it's definitely not something I caught on my first read through.

So yeah, lots of little things with Adrienner. I think Shadeun and novice look worse though for their end-of-day voting. Shadeun had been making bad posts and novice hadn't been making any posts.

[Shadeun]

Hi Guys, just landed late last night and got all the wedding stuff together for my brother this morning Aussie time.

Apologies for the wall to text.

First, final comments on my D1 switch: I don't have any more to add to my defense about the voting last minute to save Gaz. Obviously its a bit strange/scummy but I played this originally to be with my mate and (that day) tried to save because I felt he wasn't that good of a choice. I was obviously wrong. I think it is best to make up your own mind on this, as I dont think there is any way to prove otherwise/reasons until the game is over or I am dead.

Second: you guys did a lot of weird stuff while I was away! My reading is there have been a lot of role claims but only the Krill jail -> Lewwyn has been claimed (proved?) a lie? Then Krill claimed immune to scans after someone else scanned him. This seems pretty unlikely.

Lewwyn: read your chat thread with Mattimeo and think that comes off exactly how Matt has always come off to me? Seems 50:50 there, though Matt was very slow to participate day 1, felt like perhaps sticking to your neighbour QT and avoiding main thread until more info? The mishit on Zak is pretty bad also (though thats a pretty rich comment coming from me). If the neighbour pairs are at least a fair chance of 1 scum:1 town its a fairly good bet (assuming 1s:1t) that you (Lewwyn) are the town side of that pair.

I think Ichibod (despite his misread on me :P) is coming across as the best player from a roleplaying perspective and second from a scumhunting perspective. As he would say not 'phony' at all. Would note an aversion (but not always) to actually quoting/proving his points. But I tend to go that way also. After Lewwyn my best town read.

Somewhere (someone) mentioned that Rowain (I think Lewwyn in his dump of neighbour QT) is coming across as scum hunting. I've played but 1 game with Rowain and seems completely the same, and last game Rowain (like all of us but Goreripper) was scum. And Rowain stuck to the scum hunting long after it was obvious that we were all scum. The fact Rowain is aggressive scum hunting is just excellent pressure playing (as always I assume) and doesn't help on the read (mine at least).

Pindicators entire game has been short posts (all hilarious and on the mark as Eeyore) but agreeably light on content.

I don't quite fully get whats happed with Krill but seems like the upshot is pretty dubious on whether the claims around Jailing and then immune to seeing are real?? i read the key bits twice but couldn't get more from this.

I am not a serial killer (though role reads a lot like it) I win ONLY with Innocents and have a night kill ability with a one night cooldown (which reasons that I need time to gain control of my alternate persona). Not sure how to prove it but I'm happy to use it (though I suppose i can never fully prove that I did it this way?) as directed by the handful most towny people tonight (say Lewwyn, Ichibod... not sure who else). I think its safe for me to claim now because I'm probably the easiest lynch and therefore the wolves leave me alive and try to get me during the day.

Krill/Jowy/Molach/Fenn are the lowest post count at this time and I'm pretty sure one of the scum will be laying low until voted on to prove something. Molach is likely most innocent as it seems unlikely the scum would be NOT on Gaz and NOT on Molach and all in other places. Additionally: We know some of the NON G OR Z votes were innocent in the case of Zak who was on Fenn (as was I before Gazglum save vote). So unless pretty much all the non-G/Z votes minus Zak were scum then we know that there were likely some scum on Molach.

A lot of people making Novice seem pretty clear cut case (Gringr, Lewwyn) but I dont quite see how thats better than Mattimeo (odds-wise, is there any other way to vote though?) at this point. Novice did make some votes with very little reasoning that went against the grain however.

Vote: Mattimeo for now with Krill in second place. This seems the highest probabilistically as I think near 80% chance that matt would be scum in that neighbour pair and maybe 50% chance that scum/town pair exists. Therefore, 40% chance versus 25% random lynch seems worth it at this point.

Additional note: You guys set the bar pretty high (only my second game) for what is seen as good play and the terminology. I think experienced players (at least near the start of the game) should be more descriptive of how they think a person usually is and how they are deviating. Otherwise your votes "PLAYER X doesnt feel like usual TOWNY/SCUM way PLAYER X plays" gives you a huge benefit in terms of being able to claim shit and progress through the game. Mainly because other (experienced) players will understand and nod their heads behind the screen if they agree / realise. An effort here would be appreciated by me (and others I'm sure) in the second game.

Best example was the person who voted Novice saying "anyone feeling deja vous" as their reason (after some good reasons had been made however).

TIMELINE FOR FURTHER CONTRIBUTION: Wedding for brother tomorrow (minimal posting during the night) and should be awake tonight but 100% sure I wont be able to stay awake till deadline. I think I'll be on in about 5 hours from his post however.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn: read your chat thread with Mattimeo and think that comes off exactly how Matt has always come off to me? Seems 50:50 there, though Matt was very slow to participate day 1, felt like perhaps sticking to your neighbour QT and avoiding main thread until more info? The mishit on Zak is pretty bad also (though thats a pretty rich comment coming from me). If the neighbour pairs are at least a fair chance of 1 scum:1 town its a fairly good bet (assuming 1s:1t) that you (Lewwyn) are the town side of that pair.

...

Vote: Mattimeo for now with Krill in second place. This seems the highest probabilistically as I think near 80% chance that matt would be scum in that neighbour pair and maybe 50% chance that scum/town pair exists. Therefore, 40% chance versus 25% random lynch seems worth it at this point.

This feels incongruous to me for a couple of reasons.

A) Gazglum was a neighborizor meaning every night he neighbors with someone new. That means there were 3 people with "neighbor ability". The odds that the Matt is scum based off of 1 town: 1 scum neighbor pair becomes lowered as it would meat that 50% (assuming 4 scum) of the scum team were neighbors or could create neighbors. I am not using this to clear him but to show your ratios need adjusting and its not a 40% chance that mattimeo is scum based off being part of a neighbor pair with a villager.

B) Throw all that meta out the window for a second and go back to your first statement, you think Matt reads pretty much normal so that is also 50/50? Personally I feel lynches shouldn't be made on meta evidence, but instead on the reads from in threads.

C) Given that it seems you've gone straight up logic lynch without even considering who he voted for or who has voted for him. And I don't even know where a 25% random lynch comes from. I don't consider any lynch to be random and to say so actually feels like an attempt to devalue any other lynch rather than to actually try and figure out who is actually scum.

D) Feels like scum trying to force a lynch based on logic and get everyone to ignore scumhunting.

[Meiz]

God dammit Matt & Lewwyn...

[Lewwyn]

God dammit Matt & Lewwyn...

lol

[Meiz]

We just need to unite and lynch novice/jowy today!

(No rush to get Ichabod yet )

[Lewwyn]

We just need to unite and lynch novice/jowy today!

(No rush to get Ichabod yet )

My top two as well.

[Shadeun]

This feels incongruous to me for a couple of reasons.

A) Gazglum was a neighborizor meaning every night he neighbors with someone new. That means there were 3 people with "neighbor ability". The odds that the Matt is scum based off of 1 town: 1 scum neighbor pair becomes lowered as it would meat that 50% (assuming 4 scum) of the scum team were neighbors or could create neighbors. I am not using this to clear him but to show your ratios need adjusting and its not a 40% chance that mattimeo is scum based off being part of a neighbor pair with a villager.

B) Throw all that meta out the window for a second and go back to your first statement, you think Matt reads pretty much normal so that is also 50/50? Personally I feel lynches shouldn't be made on meta evidence, but instead on the reads from in threads.

C) Given that it seems you've gone straight up logic lynch without even considering who he voted for or who has voted for him. And I don't even know where a 25% random lynch comes from. I don't consider any lynch to be random and to say so actually feels like an attempt to devalue any other lynch rather than to actually try and figure out who is actually scum.

D) Feels like scum trying to force a lynch based on logic and get everyone to ignore scumhunting.

well me saying Matt is 50:50 doesn't mean he comes off normally as about 1/5 left are scum here. I think matt is bigger chance of being scum, however, you might be correct in me weighing chance of town/scum pair to heavily? Weren't you guys paired together day 1 before Gaz could've linked you up? Am I going to be the 4th person to assume something about game mechanics that is in fact random?

re C: 25% is really shit math on my part (i thought 3/15 = 1/5 = 25%....) actually 20%, which serves my purpose more. I am trying to find the best person to lynch and just representing it statistically. Everything we do is probabilistic, thinking otherwise is just foolish.

I'm not trying to avoid scum hunting at all. I was just first making the point that I think matt is acting somewhat normally but think the weight of other evidence pushes him in as my best vote. My post does my level best at assessing people, less well than you do perhaps - but still OK I think.

Think about this: people had not discussed me in some posts and was somewhat clear I was going to get a pass today. Why would I weigh in and put so much time into it when the risks are all downside for me? Especially since experienced people seems to not like the way I write "Phony" reasoning "incongruous".

I care about scum hunting. Its just wrong that I'm trying to ignore the scum hunting here.

Maybe its best if I just do a list with 1 line reasons like everyone else in the future? not how I like to roll though