I guess I haven't been paying that much attention but I was a little surprised to see that we're at T76 already. And wow, Master Commodore almost a full 100 points ahead of the field. That's looking a little game-overish if he wasn't constrained for land.
I posted in your spreadsheet our odds against Grimace's G3 Guerilla. They're not good. I don't think that I fully realized the synnergy of his UU + UB. For a measly 3XP we're going to be facing G3 Guerillas.
When Grimace concentrates his forces into a single attack force while we're more spreadout over our land it will be very difficult to defend those 2 hills. G3 gets the 50% retreat bonus plus 25% hills attack bonus so Grimace will be getting survival odds on any attack he makes. If he can 2:1 us, we won't have a chance,...and he's more likely to be able to 2:1 us if we spread our units trying to defend 2 hills and/or a city simultaneously.
It'll get worse if we have to fall back to the city since having defensive odds depends pretty heavily on the fortify bonus unfortunately. Right now Grimace has control of the furs. If he chops the forest or we gain control of that tile and chop the forest we can revisit but until then I think that we need to focus our defense strategy around putting everything inside the city (as you have already done).
You can see from the Gallic Warrior tab that 20% culture is not going to cut it. A G3 will have 59% win odds on a fully fortified archer and 20% retreat odds. It'll also have 23% win odds vs a fully fortified C1 axe and a 38% retreat odds. So,....sorry for disuading you from Masonary earlier. :LOL:
From your City times spreadsheet we look to be a little ahead of Grimace but not enough to have a convincing production advantage. When Grimace runs out of expansion room, which should happen pretty soon, he'll have to entertain other expansion options:
1. Settle on Gavagai's landmass,...not very appealing and likely a long-term failure if not a short-term one.
2. Settle on small island. That will be appealing for him. However, time is not on Grimace's side. Every turn is one turn closer to us having a land and city advantage and one turn closer to defensive catapults and LB/CBs which will shut him down. So if he chooses this, it's to his detriment and our benefit.
3. Fight Master Commodore and Dtay,...+100 score + reputation + lack of hostilities makes that a non-starter.
4. Fight Retep? Maybe, I haven't looked that closely on where their cities are landing. We should probably take a look at city locations to estimate when Grimace runs out of room.
5. Go screw the guy that screwed him. This is probably his logical best move (break one city and expose our whole underbelly) as well as his emotional response when seeing the map.
We need to buy ourselves some time for our land lock strategy to pay off. We also need to be acutely aware of when Grimace lands Iron Working. Reminder that he doesn't need Iron,...just Iron Working for his UU. If we're not sure of his tech situation we can view his land to see a tile with +1 hammer on it for no obvious reason. It's not fool proof since he might not have iron in his territory.
Our tech speed is not great. As soon as those 2 luxaries are hooked we need to be working those riverside cottages at the capital. I'm also getting concerned that we won't be able to finish off Math before Grimace lands IW. If that's the case, then he'll be more tempted to try to punch through our chokepoint.
I think that we need to have enough emergency cash on hand to 100% our way to Masonary or alternatively to start teching it. I dissuaded you earlier in the hopes that we could get to Currency/COL earlier but I didn't fully realize how incredibly effective his UU+UB would be.
Walls in our other choke point also wouldn't hurt in keeping Master Commodore from thinking about HA or his own swords.
I posted in your spreadsheet our odds against Grimace's G3 Guerilla. They're not good. I don't think that I fully realized the synnergy of his UU + UB. For a measly 3XP we're going to be facing G3 Guerillas.
When Grimace concentrates his forces into a single attack force while we're more spreadout over our land it will be very difficult to defend those 2 hills. G3 gets the 50% retreat bonus plus 25% hills attack bonus so Grimace will be getting survival odds on any attack he makes. If he can 2:1 us, we won't have a chance,...and he's more likely to be able to 2:1 us if we spread our units trying to defend 2 hills and/or a city simultaneously.
It'll get worse if we have to fall back to the city since having defensive odds depends pretty heavily on the fortify bonus unfortunately. Right now Grimace has control of the furs. If he chops the forest or we gain control of that tile and chop the forest we can revisit but until then I think that we need to focus our defense strategy around putting everything inside the city (as you have already done).
You can see from the Gallic Warrior tab that 20% culture is not going to cut it. A G3 will have 59% win odds on a fully fortified archer and 20% retreat odds. It'll also have 23% win odds vs a fully fortified C1 axe and a 38% retreat odds. So,....sorry for disuading you from Masonary earlier. :LOL:
From your City times spreadsheet we look to be a little ahead of Grimace but not enough to have a convincing production advantage. When Grimace runs out of expansion room, which should happen pretty soon, he'll have to entertain other expansion options:
1. Settle on Gavagai's landmass,...not very appealing and likely a long-term failure if not a short-term one.
2. Settle on small island. That will be appealing for him. However, time is not on Grimace's side. Every turn is one turn closer to us having a land and city advantage and one turn closer to defensive catapults and LB/CBs which will shut him down. So if he chooses this, it's to his detriment and our benefit.
3. Fight Master Commodore and Dtay,...+100 score + reputation + lack of hostilities makes that a non-starter.
4. Fight Retep? Maybe, I haven't looked that closely on where their cities are landing. We should probably take a look at city locations to estimate when Grimace runs out of room.
5. Go screw the guy that screwed him. This is probably his logical best move (break one city and expose our whole underbelly) as well as his emotional response when seeing the map.
We need to buy ourselves some time for our land lock strategy to pay off. We also need to be acutely aware of when Grimace lands Iron Working. Reminder that he doesn't need Iron,...just Iron Working for his UU. If we're not sure of his tech situation we can view his land to see a tile with +1 hammer on it for no obvious reason. It's not fool proof since he might not have iron in his territory.
Our tech speed is not great. As soon as those 2 luxaries are hooked we need to be working those riverside cottages at the capital. I'm also getting concerned that we won't be able to finish off Math before Grimace lands IW. If that's the case, then he'll be more tempted to try to punch through our chokepoint.
I think that we need to have enough emergency cash on hand to 100% our way to Masonary or alternatively to start teching it. I dissuaded you earlier in the hopes that we could get to Currency/COL earlier but I didn't fully realize how incredibly effective his UU+UB would be.
Walls in our other choke point also wouldn't hurt in keeping Master Commodore from thinking about HA or his own swords.
