WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[novice]

Gaz votes novice for the reasons I'm leaning town on him, then goes back to being afk. Disagree, but need more to actually get a lean on him.

Could you clarify, Gaz voted Rowain and not me. So Gaz voted Rowain for the reasons you're leaning town on Rowain, or Gaz voted Rowain for the resons you're leaning town on me, or what?

[novice]

Didn't see that Zak already asked about that.

In any case, Jabbz, you should install the latest version of Mafia Helper.
Mattimeo, I agree with your take on Bob.

That Zak missed the meaning of my first post was what I figured, and he wouldn't have assigned town points to me even as scum if he'd understood. So I don't see how that is a scum tell in isolation, but I did want to see how people (Zak included) reacted to my vote.

What happened was that Lewwyn and Bob jumped out with reasons to vote Zak.

I'd try to analyze closer but I'll be busy at work today (attending a course) and after work I'll be driving west for 6 hours. I'll check in during pauses if I get a chance.

Bob

[AdrienIer]

Ok defense before offense (a lesson Munich should learn apparently).

If you look at AdrienIer's opening post, it smacked a little of the over-justification that he also did last game. And he also followed the same pattern of mindlessly pressuring lurkers without adding any content.

Mattimeo thou shall not lurk.

Doing this preemptively.

So that made me want to vote for him.

Well I was SK last game so still scumhunting. The over-justification is just my style and pressuring lurkers made a lot of sense last time with so many people. This time it was just my attempt at not making my vote completely useless. I'm not going to vote for Shadeun because he's not playing yet, everyone's noticed that and he probably just doesn't know we've started so there's no point.

Now this is the Bob post everyone's talking about.

Sorry for being AWOL most of the day, was busy at a conference. Zak, for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction". Surely he doesn't think he would have actually earned votes for that reason with this (small) crowd, and hence his post was a meaningless belch of hot air masquerading as particularly meager analysis, even by D1 standards.

This is probably the kind of thing Zak wanted to see when he baited (unless he's a bastard of course). I'm somehow not convinced this makes Bob a greedy bastard. When you're catching up on the thread you can have a very different view on some posts and the end of his message is very true (if you don't take into account that Zak's message was a bait). This post isn't in Bob's favor but not enough to vote on at the moment.

Let's look instead at the response it got him.

[...]
Bob votes zak for "for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction"". And yet, the only person who's read anything off that is Bob. Seems to me, wanting to kill off a reasonably strong player and scrabbling for an actual justification to do so. Also, jumping on an established wagon - his vote brought zak up to 3, clear leader. Not liking that play at all.
[...]
Bobchillingworth

If Bob does die for his earlier message and ends up town I'll remember this. Yes Bob is jumping on a wagon but it's a weak wagon, where the other voters don't seem very determined. Honestly while Bob isn't the worst lynch I can see where he's coming from.

Rereading the thread there's one thing I really disagree on :

Zak follows me onto Rowain>Rowain votes for him>Zak Votes for Adrien>Novice votes for him> Zak votes for Gaz>Bob votes for him.

It's funny that every time someone votes for Zak he switches his vote.

I'm not sure why you think this pattern is significant. In any case, the actual pattern, from my point of view, is that every time I move my vote, somebody new votes for me. Maybe you have the causality backwards.

I don't think Lewwyn has the causality backwards. Rowain notices the bait and votes, then Novice decides to join, then Bob comes back from his conference and joins. It's pretty linear. What's not linear is Zak trying to start a wagon against anyone at all for any reason he can find. Because they're pretty weak reasons all the time. Especially the Gazglum vote which is a pretty desperate move to try and throw dirt at someone. Maybe Zak is our guy then after all.

How much time is left in Day 1?

14h left I think.

[Mattimeo]

You mean that Gaz votes for Rowain and not Novice, I take it? So you have a town lean on Rowain for not wanting to hand out town points?

Could you clarify, Gaz voted Rowain and not me. So Gaz voted Rowain for the reasons you're leaning town on Rowain, or Gaz voted Rowain for the resons you're leaning town on me, or what?

I misread, actually - thought Gaz was voting novice, rather than Rowain. The lack of capitalisation in the vote got me.

Which means Gaz is firmly in the 'not enough activity to judge' category along with Shadeun.

[Lewwyn]

Gaz said he'd be spotty for the first day at least.

[Rowain]

It would be nice if a lurker or a GM could contact Shadeun and get confirmation he knows the game has started.

With Gazglum out for today too my current preferred target is AdrienIer.

[Gazglum]

Im here for a bit, and ive messaged shadeun to let him know. Why do you want to vote for me Rowain?

[AdrienIer]

Same question about me

[Gazglum]

Ok, I didnt notice that zak had attacked roeain when I voted him. I think riowains posts avbout lewwyn (partly in response to adrien, I know) ,seemed a lot of guff and more constructed feeling than usual. Why is lewwyn's initial random vote worth analysis and whats the point of saying 'I would vote lewwyn but I won't'?

[Rowain]

Why do you want to vote for me Rowain?

For not being the usual townglum. Which is explained with you having no time. Which is why I'm not voting for you today.


But my comment was more on the line that with you and Shadeun practically out there are only 6 people left which I find useful to vote for.
And from those 6 I find AdrienIer has earned the most scumpoints so far. It isn't a huge lead but for me at the current state the best target.