WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[Gazglum]

A new day, a whole new set of lies. May I say first that you all should go out and see Mad Max Fury Road if get any enjoyment from action movies. Wow. Now I have the guzzoline pumping through my veins I’m ready to dive back in.

Matt, I left my vote on you last night because I wanted to get more out of you, which we did. Thanks for your thoughts, and I can see the logic in an Adrien-Zak pair.

The other reason I left my vote on you was because I wanted to see if Rowain moved to you when you were in the lead. I was interested because the last time you played such a ‘minimalist’ game in WW36, it sparked this conversation from Rowain:

@Matt I have my doubts you would have acted exactly the same had you been town.

eh, that's your prerogative.


While I'll freely admit that my contributions this game were fairly poor, even by my normal standard, ...

Looks to me like you concede my point

And if you really plan to do the same next time around I can hope you to be scum again or me to be scum and you village for the mislynch or scum for the bus

So Rowain suggested that he would happily lynch you again for lurking, but today he’s resisted that. I was wondering about a partnership between you two, but Rowain’s defense to Shadeun (that he doesn’t see you in as many pairs) is logical.

On Rowain you said Day 1:

Rowain sits on Zak, commenting about not wanting to vote Lewwyn (yes) due to existing bias against him. Not much else contributed. No real lean.

And today haven’t mentioned him at all. I think that Rowain’s play has been off, that he's being far too laid back. Do you have any feelings one way or the other?

[Gazglum]

MATT
Matt is grouchy and doesn’t like not being able to meta. I don’t think he’s done anything out of the ordinary exactly, except disappear for a day, so I’m neutral on him now.

SHADEUN
I think Shadeun has sound like his last town game, his posts have been logical, he seems relaxed. I’m leaning town on him.

NOVICE
Novice we have all discounted today, but he’s not really taking advantage of the break. Novice, you said you can’t put this together in a way that makes sense, whereas I feel the problem for the rest of us is that we can put it together in half a dozen contradictory ways that ALL make sense.

You also said you have town leans on everybody except Matt. Does that mean you have a scum feel for Matt, or its just a process of elimination?

ADRIEN
I have been trying to hold onto a world view where Adrien is town, but his tapering down his contributions is making me uncertain. Adrien, you’ve had very little pressure the last 24 hours but I feel like you’re still insisting on playing defense. Now you say that you think Shadeun is acting towny. So I’ve been waiting since that post for you to discuss your reads in light of that opinion, but you haven’t. You're STILL defending.

Now that Matt is responding, is he still your Tier 1 suspect?

The three people I think are being most objectively scummy in themselves are Rowain, Zakalwe and Adrien. As far as pairs go there,

Zak-Rowain makes a lot of sense to me
Zak-Adrien makes sense to me.
Rowain-Adrien does NOT make sense.

Other possible pairings I can see are Novice-Adrien (Novice saves Adrien), Matt-Zak (Matt pretends to suspect Zak but wants to kill his scumbuddy first, when Adrien flips town Matt will ‘clear’ Zak), Matt-Rowain (minimise interaction tells, both be unhelpful). There are other possibilities I guess, but tehre is so much potential scumminess in the above groups that I can't believe they are all innocent.

Still chewing this over for now.

[Gazglum]

Rowain is still my top suspect. I’m a bit surprised, and slightly suspicious, that I got such absolute zero traction on the case. No other scum eager to help throw dirt on a strong town player?

If it's not a slipup then what did you mean?

That was from my post saying why i believe Rowain to be scum. He is the 'other' scum. If there were two other scum out there, I would expect one of them to have at least commented something like, 'mmm, yes, Rowain is maybe a bit off' without risking themselves too much. You know, like Zak did.

No Rowain is not the other scum in that sentence, Rowain is the strong town player.

That's a new sentence Novice. Originally, I wrote about Rowain being scum, and mentioned an 'other scum' relative to him. In the one you quoted there I was saying that IF Rowain was town, I would expect scum to have weighed in. I am not going to accidentally call myself a wolf in the main thread, and if you think I did then I don't really know what to respond.

[Gazglum]

Though that kind of leads me to my point on Rowain - he IS supposed to be a strong town player, but I just haven't got that from him this game. It's been weak. Similar to Adrien, he's spent a lot of time on defense. He talks about scum pairs but prefers to pick probabalistically than try to fight his way to the truth, a strategy which I believe Matt called 'fucking atrocious'. I disagree, but I think it helps to put in a bit more effort alongside it than he seems to have done.

More than anyone else, Rowain just feels like a wolf to me.

But if he is a wolf, I'd think him teamed with Matt or Zak, and now he's voting Zakalwe. Zak also fits in other pairs.

Zak, I know you're bored of my questions, but here you mention scum pairs you suspect:

Since everybody has switched to discussing scum pairs I guess I will do the same. I think AdrienIer + Novice makes a lot of sense holistically speaking, closely followed by AdrienIer + Gazglum. Maybe AdrienIer + Shadeun works too, but I'm not getting scum vibes from Shadeun today.

You don't mention Rowain here. Does this mean you don't see him in a scum pair?

But then you say,

If AdrienIer flips innocent then I would likely turn back to Rowain and Shadeun. Gazglum and Novice could still be scum, but I mainly suspect them as AdrienIer's buddy.

So with Adrien innocent, what is the Rowain scenario?

What I fear here is that Zak and Rowain have moved into the mutual accusation spiral, but will miraculously both back off at the last. They've both left their options open to do that, they've both put a preliminary bid in on Shadeun which can be cashed in if his big mouth gets him in trouble.

[novice]

That's a new sentence Novice. Originally, I wrote about Rowain being scum, and mentioned an 'other scum' relative to him. In the one you quoted there I was saying that IF Rowain was town, I would expect scum to have weighed in. I am not going to accidentally call myself a wolf in the main thread, and if you think I did then I don't really know what to respond.

Ok I still don't see it, but I'm not a native speaker. At any rate I don't think you're going to accidentally call yourself a wolf, but I figured there was no harm in hearing your response.

Zak, I don't exactly see how my "assess the consequences" proposal wrt. Adrien works, I was trying to think outside the box a bit. But yeah, if I can assess the consequences I can just act on those directly.

I don't have a scum lean on Mattimeo, I just had an absence of town leans on him.

This is a tough one. I think there is one other player though that objectively deserves no town points, and that is Rowain. When it comes down to it he's handing out very few specific reads.

[AdrienIer]

ADRIEN
I have been trying to hold onto a world view where Adrien is town, but his tapering down his contributions is making me uncertain. Adrien, you’ve had very little pressure the last 24 hours but I feel like you’re still insisting on playing defense. Now you say that you think Shadeun is acting towny. So I’ve been waiting since that post for you to discuss your reads in light of that opinion, but you haven’t. You're STILL defending.

I've made two contributions yesterday morning, and now I'm doubting my original Shadeun lean. When he was attacked he sounded a lot like last game. If he's faking it it's very well done. From his D2 only this post is bad :

ASSUME ADRIEN GUILTY
....
So if Adrien is scum, I think he is partnered with Zak, Matt or Novice. I would understand if other people thought he was partnered with me as well.

Or you, Gazglum, could be with AdrienIer. Which fits better than any of your proposed people given your defense of him and your playstyle feeling similar to WW38 when I stupidly voted to save you.

On Novice: I think novice is not so stupid to post this:

Bob or Lewwyn for me.

Then follow through with the Lewwyn night kill after bob proved innocent by hanging. Agree Novice has been acting differently, but this will save me from voting for him today I think.

So my belief at the moment:
Gaz + Adrien = Scumbuddies
I think gaz goes out of his way to protect Adrien because of the small game.

So AdrienIer because:
-play seems remarkably similar to last game,
-the last minute switch to save him (whoever his scumbuddy might be, even if im wrong on gazglum)
-lewwyn was voting for him and then died in the night. Everyone casting around for others to blame but think Gaz/Adrien are best case here.
- easiest two man coalition (despite gazglums casting around otherwise)

The last minute switch to save me is myself (for obvious reasons) and Zak. Either it's suspicious and he should be all over Zak or it's not and why the hell . And you and I as scumbuddies is wrong (you know it as well as I), so while I can see where he's coming from it's not in his favor.

The rest of his posts, for example the one where he's annoyed at Matt for not giving any defense, are pretty good :

Matt,
As Rowain said
Zak works with more buddies in my mind. You're a pretty statistically minded guy - how is Zak not the better vote in this case?

I dunno Matt. At the end of the day you have said nothing and now 'defence wise I dont have to answer much". You need to engage, so theres more to hold you against in future days.

Now that Matt is responding, is he still your Tier 1 suspect?

Matt is responding but not really defending. Not really making cases either. I think he's still n°1 followed by the pack, ie Rowain Zak and Shadeun.

[Rowain]

Current count:

2 votes: Mattimeo ( AdrienIer, Shadeun)
2 votes: AdrienIer (zakalwe, Mattimeo)
2 votes: zakalwe (Rowain, Gazglum)
1 votes: Rowain ( novice )

[Rowain]

Last day

2 votes: Zakalwe ( Bobchillingworth, AdrienIer)
2 votes: Rowain (Lewwyn, Gazglum)
2 votes: Bob (Mattimeo, novice)
2 votes: AdrienIer (Rowain, zakalwe)


no votes: Shadeun

[AdrienIer]

Who are your runner-ups?

In case Adrien is lynched and turns out village I would revisit the case on you.
In case he turns out scum it becomes harder. I wouldn't think Bob as his partner.

Bear in mind that I have excluded Gaz and Shadeun for today.

Ok Rowain, I'll give you a short cease-fire. Who are the bad guys then?

If Adrien is scum I would give Shadeun a pass and look at novice, Matt, Gazglum and zak

If Adrien is town I rather think Shadeun, Matt, Gazglum

I do think we would have been better served by killing Adrien yesterday (no matter what his role is).

Rowain you moved Zak from your "scum lean if Adrien is town" to "scum lean if Adrien is scum". How come ?

The Rowain-Zak interactions are weird indeed. Rowain attacks Zak during the night but doesn't vote for him at dawn. He actually said something weird here :

So I'm currently inclined to vote zak but I also fear a mattimeo + Shadeun combination. Especially Shadeun is a hot candidate IMO.

Followed by a Shadeun vote. Now he's changed to Zak in an complete, sudden turnabout :

@Matt
Why not going after zakalwe then?

So yeah not great... Zak next to see if Zak+Rowain does fit.

[AdrienIer]

What I mean at the end is that after a night of attacking Zak you change to not voting for him then suddenly you change your mind for seemingly no reason.