WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[AdrienIer]

Who do you think had a stronger motive for killing Novice? If nobody did, then it's a null tell.

Anyone but me. He's the only one (with Gazglum to some extent) who defended me consistently throughout the game, while to others he's just someone with a town lean.

Your attack on Mattimeo is conditioned on Bob flipping as town, so that needs to happen first before it brings any heat to your buddy.

Yes I didn't actually expect Bob to die for this post. I just felt Mattimeo's post was bad, and was the one that gave strength to the wagon.

Meanwhile you're saying "this must be the kind of thing Zak was looking for" as a way to encourage me to push back on Bob. Trying to set up a Zak/Bob confrontation.

Not at all. This is more an acknowledgment that your post did make something happen. I'm not sure how I could have set up a confrontation by defending Bob ? The only thing I mean is that you set things up so we could have things to talk about and that Bob's post didn't seem so bad to me.

And actually, you were moving your vote OFF Mattimeo in that post. You started the day pressuring him for lurking. When he eventually did post, it was a post that you strongly disagreed with, and yet you moved your vote.

Matt had finally started being active, I disliked his post (if Bob was town) but it wasn't so bad that I would start tunneling on him. I try to avoid tunneling, except when tunneled (like with Matt now). So I decided to move on you instead because I disagreed with you on an other matter. I really don't see how not tunneling and giving people the benefit of the doubt at times is bad.

[AdrienIer]

I'll try a Matt+Zak reread to see how well they fit. I'm supposed to work, dammit.

[Gazglum]

I went through this whole game feeling like Rowain was probably scum, and that has coloured my assumptions about Adrien a lot because I couldn't see them as a scum pair after Rowain's vote for Adrien Day 1. Rereading with Rowain as innocent, and Adrien looks a lot worse.

Shadeun is currently my strongest town lean, so I think we're dealing with Adrien-Zak, Adrien-Matt, or possibly Zak-Matt. If Shadeun was scum, I guess I would see him most likely paired with Zak, given he's pushed hard for Matt and Adrien lynches.

Day 1 I don't think Adrien was standout scummy, even on re-read. He is defensive, but as he says, he was under a lot of pressure and a lot of it without much specific he could respond against. His switch to Bob makes sense as a survival vote.

I would say that he overexplains his survival vote. Everyone understands that you gotta do what you gotta do when the chips are down and deadline looms. Adrien got a bit Shakespearean with it, "Must I slay the man I love!?" etc. etc.

More importantly is that Adrien specifically says that he suspects all his voters, plus Mattimeo. So he has a scum list of Shadeun, Zakalwe, Lewwyn, Rowain and Mattimeo.

ADrien voted Mattime > Zak > Bob this day.

DAY 2
Adrien says he suspects Shadeun most, but will join me on Matt. Of his four surviving suspects, Matt is by far the easiest to target because it is a policy lurk lynch. There is nothing to engage with. Adrien just quotes Matt's feeble contributions, and that is the justification for his vote.

He says that he had Rowain as a town lean, but my attacks were making him doubt it. But wasn't he also suspecting Rowain for voting him?

He said he has more of a town lean on Zakalwe, because why would Scum Zak risk switching frmo innocent to innocent? But then he changes his mind and thinks that maybe Zak is a wolf after all. To be fair, I did exactly the same thing.

First big warning sign of Day 2 for me is that Adrien says to Shadeun:

Pointing the finger everywhere ? I've said I suspected you and Matt. That's hardly everywhere. Buddying up to whom ? Are you sure you're not mixing me up with Zak who started giving away town points 5 seconds after the game began ?

This is just a lie really. By this point Adrien had said he suspected Shadeun, Matt, Zak, Rowain and Lewwyn, or half the players in the game.

Adrien says Shadeun is his top suspect but at no point does he go back to Day 1 to put together any kind of real case. He just spars with Shadeun, acts defensive, casts aspersions. Nobody joins him, and that's not surprising. Anyway, he keeps his vote on Matt.

Matt finally comes back, and whatever I think about his game he has a fair point when he says that he has nothing specifically he can defend against. He is being voted for not particiapting and for making sense in scum pairs, there is nothing to refute.

But its like Adrien doesn't even register this. He says "Matt is responding but not really defending." As Mattimeo said, what is he supposed to defend against? If Mattimeo is a top suspect for Adrien, why won't Adrien push him here? Why not engage with him? It's a lazy vote.

But the scummiest part of Adrien's Day 2 comes here:

- Not overly compelling push against Shadeun today.

You have a right to your opinion. My push felt good before Shadeun started acting townie, now not so much I guess.

He's called out on a weak attack on Shadeun, and Adrien admits that he now thinks Shadeun is leaning town. Which is fine! But he then offers NO opinion on how this changes his view of the game. If Shadeun isn't the scum, then who is? Presumably we are back to Mattimeo by default?

Even in my Rowain-bloodlust, I felt uncomfortable abotu that at the time and said,

Adrien, you’ve had very little pressure the last 24 hours but I feel like you’re still insisting on playing defense. Now you say that you think Shadeun is acting towny. So I’ve been waiting since that post for you to discuss your reads in light of that opinion, but you haven’t. You're STILL defending.

Now that Matt is responding, is he still your Tier 1 suspect?

So kind of trying to give Adrien a hand, get him to participate more. But again Adrien seems to misunderstand. He responds with Post #216, which patiently explains why Shadeun now gets a town lean.

I don't care if Shadeun has a town lean, Adrien! I wanted to know who the scum were, if not him. And apparently you had no idea, so you get burbling about Shadeun before scurrying back to your old friend Mattimeo by default.

Zak and Rowain started taking off here, and Adrien jumped on board the lead Zakwagon, suddenly sure enough to write 'ZAKS MISTAKE', but he bases it on a misunderstanding in the context of Zak’s question to Novice. When this is pointed out, Adrien instantly backs down with “IDK, maybe I’m overreacting?”

SO a feint, quickly withdrawn, and he’s back to suspecting nobody.

All this time Adrien has a fair few votes, so he needs to make sure a rival candidate hangs. When Rowain becomes the new, and last, lead bandwagon Adrien jumps on there too, saying that I have convinced him (and he had suspected Rowain earlier).

Then he gets cold feet and wants off at the end. I just don't knwo what to make of that. I would have thought scum would want to stay the course, but so would town. I don't think Rowain changed his behaviour in anyway that would make you think he was a bad vote then if you thought he was a good vote two hours earlier. If ADrien is scum, then I guess maybe he just wanted to not be on another mislynch after the heat he was already getting? And since he says that he beleived (correctly) that Novice, Shadeun and I were locked in on Rowain, then there wasn't much danger to him in leaving at that point. If Rowain swtiched to him, he was still safe.

Anyway. There's no smoking gun, which is why I haven't been on Adrien up till now. But the main point is that Day 2 Adrien was NOT under that much pressure, but he kept responding defensively anyway, and did no real scumhunting. The entire game he has justified voting Mattimeo for lurking, which would be an easy strategy if Mattimeo has suggested it to him in the scum QT.

Adrien, if you are town, you need to STOP complaining baout people voting for you and help us find the scum team. There are now only 6 possible combinations from each townie's perspective. So you, and Matt, should have a lot to work with.

[Gazglum]

I try to avoid tunneling, except when tunneled

Hah! Well said, I know what you mean.

[AdrienIer]

He says that he had Rowain as a town lean, but my attacks were making him doubt it. But wasn't he also suspecting Rowain for voting him?

I wasn't suspecting Rowain and Lewwyn too much. Their voting for me made them go up the list but I never went after them. Which means this :

By this point Adrien had said he suspected Shadeun, Matt, Zak, Rowain and Lewwyn, or half the players in the game.

is a lie. Or you're confusing pointing fingers and suspecting.

Adrien says Shadeun is his top suspect but at no point does he go back to Day 1 to put together any kind of real case. He just spars with Shadeun, acts defensive, casts aspersions. Nobody joins him, and that's not surprising. Anyway, he keeps his vote on Matt.

Have you read post 143 ? I did go back on Shadeun's D1.

Matt finally comes back, and whatever I think about his game he has a fair point when he says that he has nothing specifically he can defend against. He is being voted for not particiapting and for making sense in scum pairs, there is nothing to refute.

At some point I told him that the main point against him was that he wasn't engaging at all, and that to make those suspicions go away he should start making cases etc... He didn't do that and proceeded to lurk. Therefore I didn't let him off completely.

But the scummiest part of Adrien's Day 2 comes here:

- Not overly compelling push against Shadeun today.

You have a right to your opinion. My push felt good before Shadeun started acting townie, now not so much I guess.

He's called out on a weak attack on Shadeun, and Adrien admits that he now thinks Shadeun is leaning town. Which is fine! But he then offers NO opinion on how this changes his view of the game. If Shadeun isn't the scum, then who is? Presumably we are back to Mattimeo by default?

Everyone (except novice and you probably) seemed slightly scummy. I did explain my suspect list here :

Also, maybe AdrienIer just relaxed after playing defence for many many hours.

This. I've been following with interest but without Matt this day is not very useful. What's annoying me right now is that you sound more and more like last game when you were town. Which might make you come down to Zak's level on my scum list (he's currently around Rowain in tier two behind Matt and you in tier one)

So you're again either misremembering or lying.

Zak and Rowain started taking off here, and Adrien jumped on board the lead Zakwagon, suddenly sure enough to write 'ZAKS MISTAKE', but he bases it on a misunderstanding in the context of Zak’s question to Novice. When this is pointed out, Adrien instantly backs down with “IDK, maybe I’m overreacting?”

SO a feint, quickly withdrawn, and he’s back to suspecting nobody.

I misread Zak, and was lucid enough to back down when novice (who obviously knows Zak better than anyone) told me I was wrong. I was back at my former list of Matt first, Shadeun Zak and Rowain second which is NOT suspecting nobody.

The main point is that Day 2 Adrien was NOT under that much pressure, but he kept responding defensively anyway, and did no real scumhunting.

I needed a cooldown after being attacked relentlessly. I didn't feel safe when there wasn't a moment in the day when I wasn't at least in second place in the tallies.

Adrien, if you are town, you need to STOP complaining about people voting for you and help us find the scum team. There are now only 6 possible combinations from each townie's perspective. So you, and Matt, should have a lot to work with.

As I said earlier I'm going to look into Zak+Matt soon (probably after lunch). Why you aren't all over Matt right now is a mystery to me. I put together a case against Shadeun Matt and (through a misunderstanding) against Zak, so I have tried. I don't mind trying harder because I want to win as much as the other townies but with your tunneling against Rowain I'm not sure you can say you've been much more successful than me. Also please remember that we're looking at two scum here. It's one of the reasons why I'm not attacking you today while I would have very good reasons to do so. If Matt dies and is scum (which I believe) we have a 2vs1 LyLo tomorrow, and if both of us haven't been killed in the night I'll consider your case very seriously.

[Gazglum]

He says that he had Rowain as a town lean, but my attacks were making him doubt it. But wasn't he also suspecting Rowain for voting him?

I wasn't suspecting Rowain and Lewwyn too much. Their voting for me made them go up the list but I never went after them. Which means this :

By this point Adrien had said he suspected Shadeun, Matt, Zak, Rowain and Lewwyn, or half the players in the game.

is a lie. Or you're confusing pointing fingers and suspecting.

Thanks for trying to make things happen Gazglum. But if people decide that they'd rather do a lazy day one you won't be able to do much. All four voters on me are suspicious in my mind, you summed up what's to be said about Rowain, I said what I had to say about Zak, Lewwyn basically threw his vote without much reasoning while knowing he wouldn't be able to change it and Shadeun's contribution was to sum up stuff about people and seemingly arbitrarily choosing me as the best lynch of the lot. Really ?

[Gazglum]

I don't understand what you mean by the difference between pointing fingers and suspecting.

As I said earlier I'm going to look into Zak+Matt soon (probably after lunch). Why you aren't all over Matt right now is a mystery to me. I put together a case against Shadeun Matt and (through a misunderstanding) against Zak, so I have tried. I don't mind trying harder because I want to win as much as the other townies but with your tunneling against Rowain I'm not sure you can say you've been much more successful than me. Also please remember that we're looking at two scum here. It's one of the reasons why I'm not attacking you today while I would have very good reasons to do so. If Matt dies and is scum (which I believe) we have a 2vs1 LyLo tomorrow, and if both of us haven't been killed in the night I'll consider your case very seriously.

I certainly have not been more successful than you, I assure that the Glum feels the shame.

I'm not all over Matt yet because I want to give him a chance to finally contribute, now that we have all the voting and interaction tells he likes to sift through. Also I think the most likely remaining scum pairs are Adrien/Matt or Adrien/Zak. I admit Zak/Matt is possible, so would be interested to hear your take on it. My impression is that they have been pretty much ignoring each other up till now.

[AdrienIer]

Well ok, I had forgotten that post made in the depressed moments when I thought I had no chance. Lewwyn's vote annoyed me but I didn't have any more reasons to suspect him. And my suspicions on Rowain were because one of the only people not voting for me (you) was attacking him. I also disliked his beginning of day. I can say now that I was more vocal against them than I really felt, and I entered N1 not really thinking about those two.

[AdrienIer]

I don't understand what you mean by the difference between pointing fingers and suspecting.

As I said earlier I'm going to look into Zak+Matt soon (probably after lunch). Why you aren't all over Matt right now is a mystery to me. I put together a case against Shadeun Matt and (through a misunderstanding) against Zak, so I have tried. I don't mind trying harder because I want to win as much as the other townies but with your tunneling against Rowain I'm not sure you can say you've been much more successful than me. Also please remember that we're looking at two scum here. It's one of the reasons why I'm not attacking you today while I would have very good reasons to do so. If Matt dies and is scum (which I believe) we have a 2vs1 LyLo tomorrow, and if both of us haven't been killed in the night I'll consider your case very seriously.

I'm not all over Matt yet because I want to give him a chance to finally contribute, now that we have all the voting and interaction tells he likes to sift through.

As someone who has been trying to do exactly that for 2 days I wish you luck.

[AdrienIer]

I wanted to cut off the first sentence out of that message but oh well.

Pointing fingers and suspecting : I suspected a lot of people during this game. I even had a crazy 30mn in which I felt maybe novice was scum. Pointing fingers would be being more active in pursuing those people I suspect, and for example I don't feel like mentioning Lewwyn once means I pointed fingers at him.