WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[AdrienIer]

If you force a race between Zak and non-Adrien, then (apart from being suspicious of your motives) I'll come down on Zak, but Adrien's the one I've suspicions of regardless of pair, while Zak I'm mostly suspicious of as a partner of Adrien.

7h before the lynch scores are 3 Zak, 2 Rowain, 1 Me and Matt is voting for me to bring it to 3/2/2. That's pretty much a race between Zak and Rowain. Why not vote Zak then ?

Rereading Zak and Mattimeo together I think they fit pretty well as a scum team. Matt attacks Bob when he attacks Zak, and Zak attacks me for attacking Matt. And Zak has never ever talked about Matt directly. Because Matt hasn't participated enough I can't find a lot of concrete evidence and tells going for that pair but I'm really feeling it. I'll jump on any wagon on one of these two.

[Gazglum]

Can you see either of them being paired with anybody else than each other?

[AdrienIer]

Matt with anyone I think. He hasn't contributed and no one except me has really gone after him. Zak I'd have to do a complete reread but I don't have the time right now. Shadeun has been pretty silent since Rowain's death. Also he originally said he'd go after Zak but comes after me. But honestly I'm going to have to bet on Zak+Matt because Shadeun did a good D2 overall and you wouldn't have cared which of Rowain and me would die if you had been scum. Or at least not to the point of asking me to stay focused on Rowain and move back my vote from Matt.

[Mattimeo]

Well the only one I trusted is gone. GG novice.

Mattimeo needs to start playing now that we can't afford another death.

Really? 'Start playing'? I was playing for the entire second half of D2, at a minimum. You keep saying "Matt's not engaging" and then not responding at all to my requests for something to actually engage with. You don't actually want me to start saying anything, you just want to paint me as not doing anything to get your last damn lynch.

If you force a race between Zak and non-Adrien, then (apart from being suspicious of your motives) I'll come down on Zak, but Adrien's the one I've suspicions of regardless of pair, while Zak I'm mostly suspicious of as a partner of Adrien.

7h before the lynch scores are 3 Zak, 2 Rowain, 1 Me and Matt is voting for me to bring it to 3/2/2. That's pretty much a race between Zak and Rowain. Why not vote Zak then ?

Because, as stated in the post you quoted, I mainly suspected you, and most of my evidence towards Zak was reliant on you being scum?
I knew I would be around at lynch. You saw I was around at lynch. There does exist such a concept as changing your vote shortly before lynch to assist the lynch of someone, if your preferred target is not gaining any traction. I'd've thought you'd know about it, given, you know, the fact that it's exactly what you've done both days so far.

Is there enough information for you to be involved now Matt?

Sorry, today (well, yesterday now) was full of people wanting to do fun things (mainly board games. So many board games) that didn't involve internet access.
And yes, there's plenty of information. Analysis coming up before sleep occurs, because you guys deserve it (and there's nothing that matters early tomorrow, so sleep-ins are acceptable). Will attempt to avoid tunneling Adrien. Not sure how successful I'll be there, though.

[AdrienIer]

Well the only one I trusted is gone. GG novice.

Mattimeo needs to start playing now that we can't afford another death.

Really? 'Start playing'? I was playing for the entire second half of D2, at a minimum. You keep saying "Matt's not engaging" and then not responding at all to my requests for something to actually engage with. You don't actually want me to start saying anything, you just want to paint me as not doing anything to get your last damn lynch.

Have you analyzed what others have said or done ? Have you made a case ? Have you questioned anyone ? You were present through the second part of D2 but apart from throwing a few attacks at me you didn't do much. I'm not here to tell you where to dig. I've dug through the thread to find interesting bits to mention and analyze several times now, trying to find patterns or general trends concerning some people. There have been long discussions where you have nor taken a side. You had thousands of opportunity to interact with the rest of us and you chose not to do so. If you're scum you've had a very easy days. If you're town you're not really helping us by only commenting on me and not trying to look into everyone. We need everyone's participation to win this (well participation from two of you anyway).

And yes, there's plenty of information. Analysis coming up before sleep occurs, because you guys deserve it (and there's nothing that matters early tomorrow, so sleep-ins are acceptable). Will attempt to avoid tunneling Adrien. Not sure how successful I'll be there, though.

Gazglum you are a god. I've been asking for this for days.

[Mattimeo]

Reference:

DAY 1 LYNCH

4 votes: Bob (Mattimeo, novice, AdrienIer, zakalwe)
3 votes: AdrienIer (Rowain, Lewwyn, Shadeun)
1 votes: Rowain (Gazglum)
1 votes: Zakalwe (Bobchillingworth)

DAY 2 LYNCH

4 votes: Rowain (novice, Shadeun, Gazglum, AdrienIer)
2 votes: AdrienIer (zakalwe, Mattimeo)
1 votes: Novice (Rowain)

Gaz's push on Rowain feels strongly town. The conviction, even the phrasing in points, just doesn't sound like scum at all. And if I'm giving town-points for the tone and style of push of Rowain, I can't really criticise a Rowain-Rowain voting pattern, either.
If Adrien is scum, I don't see how his partner could be anyone but Zak, from how the D1 voting went. Everyone else alive was either voting for Adrien or not involved (which was functionally a vote for Adrien right up until 2mins before lynch).
Zak works with Adrien, as noted. D1, was on him 'til switching last minute to lynch Bob instead. D2, Rowain was a sure lynch so it was safe to sit on Adrien. And yet, today he has one long post where he casts suspicion but doesn't vote. Also implies Shadeun as his strongest town lead, despite not having mentioned him since halfway through D2.
Shadeun... the only actually *original* thoughts I can find are the early D2 accusations of a Gaz+Adrien pair. The rest is following - D1 on Adrien 'cause he had the most at the time, switches D2 to me following the "Matt's lurking" trend and to Rowain following Gaz and novice's reasoning. Could potentially be partners with Zak, there's been so little interaction between them.

So, given I'm discounting Gaz, and cannot credit an Adrien+Shadeun pair because of D1, the only pairs possible are Adrien+Zak and Zak+Shadeun. I'd be putting those at 80:20 probability respectively, by the way.
And yes, yesterday I had harsh things to say about people taking a probabilistic approach. Because it was a 'x works in more pairings'. 'X is in every single feasible pairing I've come up with' is a rather different matter.
Zakalwe

[Mattimeo]

Shadeun was a stronger town lean for me. Need to reassess that now, of course.

Would quite like to hear why that was the case, and what the results of your reassessment are.

[Mattimeo]

AdrienIer, what gave you the bad feeling about lynching Rowain?

Pure intuition. In past games (it happened 2 or 3 times before) I've felt very bad about the lynch that was about to happen and that I was pushing. Even worse than the usual uncertainty. Every time it ended up a mislynch. Last time was when I followed Brick in 36, lynching novice. So when I felt it again just before deadline here I felt I should listen to my subconscious mind. In the end Gazglum pushed me to reconsider and because I had a slight town lean on him I accepted.

To be honest AdrienIer your switching and switching back to Rowain was the scummiest bit of hedging I've ever seen. One thing Gazglum told me before I joined this community is that go on the feeling that if town wins, you win, no matter if you die. Rowain, who was not to be lying about 'the game needing a bit less Rowain', was playing a very different game to how I had previously seen him and that was the reason for the lynch. It was ultimately wrong but, no point crying over spilled milk.

I completely agree with Mattimeo's comment before the lynch. AdrienIer for the play of the first couple of days and the ridiculous hedging play of the end of D2.

We ideally want to find both scum today, because we know for a fact that we need all three town voting to lynch one of them to secure the lynch.

If Adrien is scum, who is his partner?

[Gazglum]

Adrien, can you explain any further why you said this yesterday:

Ok but I'm giving you the hell tomorrow if Rowain is town. Rowain

But today have been conciliatory, saying that you don't see me in a pair and you don't think Scumglum would have asked you to change your vote back to Rowain?

[AdrienIer]

Ok now that we've got Mattimeo back I don't mind voting Zak again, with Matt down to being number two.

Adrien, can you explain any further why you said this yesterday:

Ok but I'm giving you the hell tomorrow if Rowain is town. Rowain

But today have been conciliatory, saying that you don't see me in a pair and you don't think Scumglum would have asked you to change your vote back to Rowain?

Sure. I've had 24h to think about things. I wrote that post as you had told me to vote against my intuition. But I've had time to think it over and even if you pushed a town kill you did it in a town way. A wise man once said

you feel the rage build within you. How dare he pretend to be one of you? You're not quite sure when you made the decision that he had to die, but you're a townie. You don't think things through logically, you don't carefully examine lines and line of argumentation. You pick your murder victim with your all-too-human gut, and then you go with it. That's what being town means.

And my gut says you didn't do it. Or at least my gut is more inclined to go after Zak and Matt for now.