WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[zakalwe]

Mattimeo, it should be easy enough to make me the common denominator of all "feasible" pairs if you just arbitrarily exclude some pairs. Why is Shadeun + AdrienIer not feasible based on D1? Seems eminently feasible to me, and he wasn't very townish on D1. My town lean on him stems from his tone on D2. I don't have any very concrete reasons for thinking him innocent, which is why I said I should reassess. In any case, how can you exclude AdrienIer/Shadeun as a feasible pair while simultaneously questioning my town read on Shadeun?

Your strong town lean on Gazglum also seems out of place to me. If you suspect me of blatantly saving AdrienIer (btw., why didn't I just go after Bob right away?), then why not also suspect Gazglum of trying to save him more indirectly? (On both days, no less?)

[Gazglum]

Dearest Zak, without you changing to Bob at the last minute, Adrien would have hung on Day 1, and he would have hung with Shadeun as the last nail in the coffin. How does that make Shadeun/Adrien eminently feasible?

[zakalwe]

Shadeun put in the fourth vote here:

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid541803

5 hours before the deadline. Because "AdrienIer is off, but maybe it is just his style".

After that, AdrienIer went completely passive. The first three votes were Rowain, me, and Lewwyn. Once Lewwyn voted and went to bed, AdrienIer was as good as dead from the scum point of view.

[Gazglum]

5 hours to go, Shadeun could have put either you or Bob equal to Adrien. If he chose Bob, then Adrien switches to Bob as well if needed and survives. Much like what actually happened. Instead, on Shadeun's first real scum game he decides to give up on his only partner at that point in Day 1?

I don't believe it. I don't believe you believe it.

[zakalwe]

I'm not pushing AdrienIer and Shadeun as a pair, and never did. The point is, I don't believe that Mattimeo would completely exclude that possibility while accusing me of, like you say, doing much the same thing.

Time to vote, I guess.

Mattimeo

[zakalwe]

BTW, AdrienIer, why would I kill Novice? As far as I'm aware, he was the only one with a strong town lean on me.

[AdrienIer]

Cos you wanted to get me lynched and he was an obstacle to that ? He said he had a town lean on you and Shadeun and has been on my side for the whole game so he was a big threat to Matt. So I guess it could also have been Matt's decision to kill him.

[Gazglum]

I'm not pushing AdrienIer and Shadeun as a pair, and never did. The point is, I don't believe that Mattimeo would completely exclude that possibility while accusing me of, like you say, doing much the same thing.

Time to vote, I guess.

Mattimeo

It seems to me that the point is you described it as 'eminently feasible', when in fact it is deeply unlikely. Which makes it seem like you are just throwing conjectures out without applying analysis to them.

Why Matt over Adrien now?

[Shadeun]

I'm having a pretty shit day personally so I'm not going to post till tomorrow morning again. Apologies all for the lack of content.

The combinations that work (I think) are AdrienIer + Zak (70%) and Gazglum + Mattimeo (20%). AdrienIer + Gaz is interesting but I dont think Gaz risks keeping vote on today early to switch later.

The D1 play by Zak+AdrienIer looks like a good idea that then led to a last minute switch -> then covered by splitting up and 'doing their own thing' on D2.

Maybe its my bias, and maybe because I know Gaz so well personally that it all 'just feels like him' but I really felt like the push on Rowain was a good one. Rowain changed up their game style and (I think) really did try to inject 'less rowain' into the game. I suppose, sadly, because we butted heads in other games I was less likely to be forgiving of this idea. Lesson Learned I suppose.

Additionally @matt, as to my few original contributions:
- Hard to add much original in a game where we are quickly down to so few people and everyone pretty canvassed by D2.
- I think I stayed strong on Novice town and said that at the beginning based on him unlikely to say Bob+Lewwyn and then kill Lewwyn in the night.
- I think I also started putting my thoughts on pairs out early?

@AdrienIer: can you make a case for Matt with anyone? This is the final play for town so (if you are amongst us, which i doubt) we need to hit the highest probability target or we lose. We also lose tomorrow if we miss. The only (best) strategy is to get pairs now and proceed on that basis (I think)

VOTING STRATEGY FOR END OF DAY: you all know this I assume, but there are 3 true town votes left so, if you are slightly unsure, align your vote with your best guess of non-scum at the last minute -> even if you don't 100% agree. We cant have 3 people thinking that different odds of the same pair (say) and then being right in aggregate but lose the game for us on a 12 hour scum switch. Understand that this all sounds a bit self serving because a few people have said 'shadeun lean town/strong town' but I dont think anything I say wont make sense.

So, really, we need an honest commitment for everyone to be awake OR (if life intervenes) confirmation that you won't be (would be really poor form as scum to use this to make their vote seem more real during the debate phase). I can confirm I will be online for the deadline.

[zakalwe]

I'm not pushing AdrienIer and Shadeun as a pair, and never did. The point is, I don't believe that Mattimeo would completely exclude that possibility while accusing me of, like you say, doing much the same thing.

Time to vote, I guess.

Mattimeo

It seems to me that the point is you described it as 'eminently feasible', when in fact it is deeply unlikely. Which makes it seem like you are just throwing conjectures out without applying analysis to them.

Why Matt over Adrien now?

I see you're back in "reaching for contradictions" mode. Eminently feasible as in equally feasible as the other scenarios that he was describing. He was making bogus assumptions to fake a case by elimination.