WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[Jabbz]

Deadline.

[Jabbz]

The screams that shattered the night haunted the dreams of the remaining five men. While death had been present before, this was different, it wasn’t quick, and it wasn’t clean. Worse, the village was convinced the men were cursed, and they were being forced out. Combined with a looming deadline for the next inspection of the vault, what was left of the crew knew the Congolese government would be hounding after them as well.

A new sense of focus seemed to permeate the group. While some were silent for long periods, they still paid keen attention to every argument made. Early in the day the discussion seemed to center mostly on the actions of AdrienIer and Zakalwe. As evening drew close however, more and more people began to look to Zakalwe. The argument lasted for hours, with Zakalwe throwing out reason after reason for why it wasn’t him. It appeared however that the group wouldn’t be swayed.

Mattimeo, the brains behind the heist, was the last to switch over to Zakalwe. He appeared convinced by the arguments, but being methodical as always, he took it a step further, and while the group was going back and forth, he stealthily opened Zakalwe’s tool kit. The conversation stopped when he threw it down in front of the crew. The case was missing one screwdriver, and the rest of the set were a match for the one found in Quincy’s ear.

Zakalwe sputtered for a moment, then started claiming that someone else must have framed him. Before he got that halfway out of his mouth, Gazglum pointed out that he had just opened the kit yesterday, trying to fix the distributor cap on the truck. Knowing how meticulous he was about his tools, it was clear he would have noticed it missing. No sooner had this realization hit than he started to run.

He was not nearly quick enough however. AdrienIer tackled him before he made it a few feet, and he was tied down shortly after. The crew started asking him questions, trying to find out who he was working with, even promising to let him live, without his share of the gold of course, if he just ratted out whoever he was working with. It appeared he was going to comply, but before he could utter a name the village chief walked up to him and brutally slit his throat.

“Evil!” he cried. “You bring great evil to my village. Never have we known suffering like this.” The crew then noticed dozens of villagers, armed with knives, spears, and even an old French rifle left over from WWII that was as likely to explode as fire. They were heavily outnumbered, and with the chief screaming at them to leave, they left the rapidly cooling body of Zakalwe in the dust, and walked into the night. Before they got out of sight, the could see the villagers hacking Zakalwe into small pieces.

Zakalwe has been lynched on day three. He was a Greedy Bastard.

Night three begins.

[zakalwe]

GO GO GO get your kid.

Thanks for hosting, Jabbz.

Well played, everybody.

[AdrienIer]

FINALLY !

[Shadeun]

GG ZAK. Always lovely playing with you.

I DIDNT EVEN BELIEVE THIS WAS POSSIBLE.

50% CHANCE GUYS. I IMAGINE I'LL DIE TONIGHT BUT <3 YOU ALL

[Shadeun]

GG ZAK. Always lovely playing with you.

I DIDNT EVEN BELIEVE THIS WAS POSSIBLE.

50% CHANCE GUYS. I IMAGINE I'LL DIE TONIGHT BUT <3 YOU ALL

WELL ALL BUT ONE OF YOU

[Gazglum]

Huzzuh! That makes up for Bolton nastiness a little. Well played Zak, you had me not quite sure right to the end. Its always a pleasure sparring with you.

[Gazglum]

Gentlemen! Let us Wall of Text.

Since it's possible I may not be here tomorrow, I've been reading through the game and I'm compiling all the instances I can find of interactions between Zak and the rest of us. The ENcyclopedia Zakonica. Mostly it's him fighting with Adrien.

DAY 1

Adrien votes Mattimeo straight off, and Zak votes him immediately in retaliation. Zak protecting Matt, or the early distancing?

Mattimeo thou shall not lurk.

Doing this preemptively.

Rowain, that's bullshit, I'm not buddying up to anybody. You're just jealous that you didn't get any town points.

Amazing comeback on chess.com, Novice. And thanks for the avatar, it's awesome.

AdrienIer, thou shalt not lurk whilst commanding people to not lurk.

Zak handing out town points sounded odd to me too Rowain.

Almost 24h in, 3 people missing (Gazglum said he'd be away today), only events are Zak's town lean stuff and novice's activity and comments about role PMs and stuff, being pretty enthusiastic about everything. About the former, baiting in your first posts is not a bad way to start the day for town and I'd be willing to give Zak a tiny town lean on that. About the latter Zak says novice wouldn't be enjoying himself so much if he was scum, do the other vets agree ?

I'm heading to bed. AdrienIer commends me for baiting, which does smell a bit like buddying, but it's consistent with his own play a couple of games back. So maybe Gazglum is a better guess, for supporting me indirectly with his Rowain vote.

At this point Lewwyn makes a nice early case on Zak, and Zak would be feeling some actual pressure for the first time.

When he moves off of Adrien to Gaz, he gives reasoning for moving off of him, this implies that the vote on Adrien was actually a serious vote, which again was a bit strange at that point.

I think Zak is suspicious because of all this, but honestly we're still missing two people and I've read Zak wrong before so I'm willing to wait a little bit.

Zak is now moved into the lead of the tally with 3 votes. This is the point that Mattimeo finally steps in, commenitng on everyone (cut down to Zak-related by me).

Zak is engaging nicely, but then he generally does that. And switching votes excessively, but, again, he generally does that.
Lewwyn's main contribution is that large zak-analysis while not considering it worth switching to him. Slight town for actual analysis happening.
Rowain sits on Zak, commenting about not wanting to vote Lewwyn (yes) due to existing bias against him. Not much else contributed. No real lean.
Bob votes zak for "for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction"". And yet, the only person who's read anything off that is Bob. Seems to me, wanting to kill off a reasonably strong player and scrabbling for an actual justification to do so. Also, jumping on an established wagon - his vote brought zak up to 3, clear leader. Not liking that play at all.

Bobchillingworth

So at this point Matt steps in to defend and protect Zak, attacking Bob for 'trying to kill off a strong player'. This reads bad to me in hindishgt - Mattimeo trying to put the brakes on teh Zakwagon and turn it around onto Bob.

Back to Zadrien:

AdrienIer just wanted more opinions, which is noncommittal, appeals to authority, and could be construed as scummy:

I tried to give real reasons for all my votes so far. Of course they are weak reasons, at this early stage, but that's how the BS methodology works. Even my first vote for Rowain was motivated by following you.

If you look at AdrienIer's opening post, it smacked a little of the over-justification that he also did last game. And he also followed the same pattern of mindlessly pressuring lurkers without adding any content.

Mattimeo thou shall not lurk.

Doing this preemptively.

So that made me want to vote for him.

Before going to bed, I moved my vote to Gazglum, since that seemed like a slightly more promising lead, for the reasons stated.

ADRIEN FIGHTS BACK!

Rereading the thread there's one thing I really disagree on :

Zak follows me onto Rowain>Rowain votes for him>Zak Votes for Adrien>Novice votes for him> Zak votes for Gaz>Bob votes for him.

It's funny that every time someone votes for Zak he switches his vote.

I'm not sure why you think this pattern is significant. In any case, the actual pattern, from my point of view, is that every time I move my vote, somebody new votes for me. Maybe you have the causality backwards.

I don't think Lewwyn has the causality backwards. Rowain notices the bait and votes, then Novice decides to join, then Bob comes back from his conference and joins. It's pretty linear. What's not linear is Zak trying to start a wagon against anyone at all for any reason he can find. Because they're pretty weak reasons all the time. Especially the Gazglum vote which is a pretty desperate move to try and throw dirt at someone. Maybe Zak is our guy then after all.

I had totally forgotten this section, and at this point I am becoming more open to Zak/Matt and less to Adrien/Zak. By voting Zak here, Adrien puts him back into the lead on 3 votes. The runners up are Bob and Rowain, both on 2.

That could be distancing. But at the same time Adrien goes out of his way to argue that there isn't a good case on Bob. He is also joining Rowain with the Zak vote, which will make it harder to naturally switch his vote to Rowain.

So in this scenario Scum Adrien reapplies pressure to his scumbuddy, and at the same time chokes off possible escape routes for himself. And Adrien himself is not under that much pressure yet. This would be a strange tactical move if Adrien and Zak are paired. But then, Adrien is a strange guy.

At this point Rowain switches to Adrien, Zak switches back to Adrien, so now Adrien is on 2 and Zak on 2. This is bad position for scum to have got themselves into, but Zak may have felt he had no choice after his initial attack on Adrien.

Well I was SK last game so still scumhunting.

It's an age-old debate, but I'm not of the opinion that SKs can generally blend in perfectly with townies. As far as I'm concerned, you were scum in the last game. Over-justifying your early votes is a stylistic thing. If it is a tell for anything it's likely a scum tell, not a scumhunting tell.

If Bob does die for his earlier message and ends up town I'll remember this. Yes Bob is jumping on a wagon but it's a weak wagon, where the other voters don't seem very determined. Honestly while Bob isn't the worst lynch I can see where he's coming from.

Two things. First: it's a weak wagon? According to whom? I was certainly not confident that it would dissipate in a flash. Second: so what? Why is it a point in Bob's favor that he jumps on a weak wagon?

Rereading the thread there's one thing I really disagree on :

Zak follows me onto Rowain>Rowain votes for him>Zak Votes for Adrien>Novice votes for him> Zak votes for Gaz>Bob votes for him.

It's funny that every time someone votes for Zak he switches his vote.

I'm not sure why you think this pattern is significant. In any case, the actual pattern, from my point of view, is that every time I move my vote, somebody new votes for me. Maybe you have the causality backwards.

I don't think Lewwyn has the causality backwards. Rowain notices the bait and votes, then Novice decides to join, then Bob comes back from his conference and joins. It's pretty linear. What's not linear is Zak trying to start a wagon against anyone at all for any reason he can find. Because they're pretty weak reasons all the time. Especially the Gazglum vote which is a pretty desperate move to try and throw dirt at someone. Maybe Zak is our guy then after all.

So you reread the thread and saw that thing about causality stand out as something you really disagreed with? I don't even see the connection between that quote and your case that I'm desperately trying to start wagons. It's pretty linear? What are you even talking about. This seems like a completely arbitrary quote in relation to the case that you are making.

AdrienIer

Lewwyn votes Adrien. Shadeun steps in, joins the Adrien bandwagon to make it seem unstoppable:

Zak seems to be gunning for people already which is good. Too good a player for me to have a read early. This is perhaps the thing I learned from last game most, where i am weak.

AdrienIer because seems best option now.

Zak keeps pushing Adrien to the end, then dances off him at deadline. What a scumbo Zak is!

So, Zak votes me early but doesn't follow up. He doesn't mention Matt or Shadeun once, but votes Adrien for voting Matt.

Based purely on Day 1 voting, Mattimeo actually looks like a better fit for Zak than Adrien does. Interesting.

[Gazglum]

Encyclopedia Zakonica

NIGHT 1

ADrien says that he finds Matt scummy as hell for the bob kill. Zak defends Mattimeo:

AdrienIer, even after knowing that Bob was innocent I don't see how that was such a bad attack by Mattimeo.

Shadeun pressures Zak on the dodginess of his deadline vote change:

Adrien + somebody would be the obvious wolf combo here for my money. Way too defensive and then jumped on bob.

Zak: switched last minute, has been pretty engaged but not sure here. Needs to be pressed more on the switch given surely logic dictated Adrien was a better vote?

Shadeun thinks Zak 'off', but innocent. Going for town points without actually putting pressure on?

So novice is "not feeling it" and adrien gives a "bob its you or me, and I know I'm town" and you make change from adrien to bob (who IMO was playing pretty normally, see my first post which shows I'm consistent on this). Adrien seemed to be playing pretty strange (you voted for him originally yourself) so not sure.

So: the above just seems off Zak. And I hold you to a fairly high standard.

So either you are adriens scum buddy, voted for him early as cover and switched late (bold play.... doubt you'd follow this line) or you are innocent.

Still: I think adrien was the better lynch. But that doesnt help us now particularly. I also think you're probably town given your line of play.

But Zak's response to Shadeun ('yes, it was a bad call, i am sorry') sounds to me more like scum trying to shut down a townies enquiry as quickly as possible than something constructed.

[Gazglum]

Encyclopaedia Zakonica

DAY 2

Zak jumps on me, but he never takes it anywhere:

Lewwyn, did this mean you think the Glum is Scum?

I do think that's what he meant. I don't know what his reasoning was, but I had a minor point against you for trying to undermine my Novice townread yesterday. (And my other premature town read, Lewwyn, was indeed innocent.)

Also, this looks very suspicious to me, if AdrienIer is scum:

This is a weak end to the day. Riwain lying low so adrien hangs. His argument that he is intentionally playibg worse (I say passive is worse) is absurd.I hate to do this, but im going to have to order everyone to move thier votes to him.

So maybe he suspected you as AdrienIer's partner in crime. (If AdrienIer is town, then I see that post as pretty null, though.)

I don't particularly like this post:

So do you think scum switched to him to save adrien? Meaning its a team of adrien and a brother?

Reminds me of Pindicator's "So in other words, you think X is scum?" posts from last game. Feeling people out, without committing to a stance of your own, under the guise of asking for clarifications.

I vote Mattimeo
Adrien votes Mattimeo
Shadeun votes Adrien
Zak votes again for Adrien, and casts doubt on my Mattimeo vote:

I didn't want to move from AdrienIer to Bob and tie the two of them at 3 votes with myself at 2 votes. If AdrienIer was so determined to stay on me, I figured I would just let him hang.

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Well, I'm cross-posting a bit and see he's back on the offensive now. I'll keep an open mind.

I think you keep making some persuasive points against Rowain, Gazglum, but he also keeps defending quite well. It could just be town on town action. That's a very roundabout way to arrive at a Mattimeo vote, though.

Adrien begins the battle again:

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Could you tell me how, if I was scum and had died yesterday, such a move on Bob would frame him ?

Zak makes a big post on Adrien and me:

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Could you name some scenarios?

The passive play makes sense if he is scum and has given up, not wanting to leave any more clues. And some of us were pointing to him and Bob as potential scumbuddies. He wouldn't want to ruin that impression if he could not find a way out. So you or Gazglum could be his buddy, trying to create an opening. Or his buddy could be sitting on him, but I think that's less likely.

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Could you tell me how, if I was scum and had died yesterday, such a move on Bob would frame him ?

What I mean is it would look deliberately half-hearted. If you had instead "seen the light" when I pushed you on Bob a little earlier, you could have ended up putting Bob in a much better light and still dying.

I think you keep making some persuasive points against Rowain, Gazglum, but he also keeps defending quite well. It could just be town on town action. That's a very roundabout way to arrive at a Mattimeo vote, though.

If you didn't like your company on Adrien, and if you think that Rowain is not acting as towny as usual, why do you now say that you think me fighting him is town-on-town?

Who, specifically, made you uneasy about sticking on Adrien yesterday?

Yesterday I was uneasy about both Lewwyn, Rowain, and Shadeun. Today I'm thinking Rowain could well be town, and maybe you too.

I see your other post, too, but I have to run and don't have time to address it properly. My first impression is that you're asking me the same question in 5 different ways.

I was pressuring Zak here, and asked this:

What posts from Rowain today shifted your thoughts? How are you feeling about Shadeun now?

Notably Zak never responds to this, I think. No mention of Shadeun. He lurks for a while now.

Adrien:

I'm not completely sure about Zak because while I was leaning town on him voting for me today is consistent with wolf-Zak changing his vote at the last moment. He could have decided that I was more mislyncheable than Bob and is now trying to get the second mislynch done.

Now its Vote Matt day. Mattimeo gets up to 4 votes in a hurry, from all of us: Me, Adrien, Novice, Shadeun.
Zak is still voting for Adrien
Rowain suspects Zak/Shadeun, and specifically thinks that Matt and Zak don't work:

Shadeun responds to Rowain about Zak/Shade

As for your comment on Zak+Me: Zak can kinda work well with a couple people also: Rowain/Zak combo the switch Zak's makes huge sense and you guys keep easing on/off him as the 'easy' lynch (as you have just eased off).

I did explicitly talk about zak and you because that is one of the few scumpairs with zak where zaks actions do make sense and work. zak + Mattimeo doesn't work in that regard.

Matt+ zak or Matt + novice doesn't really work in that regard.

Zak reappears! He talks about all of us here, not really pinning himself down. 'Not getting scum vibes from Shadeun'. 'Matt could be a good poliyc lynch but it would be risky', 'Gaz could be scum with Adrien, etc.'

Matt is an easy vote lead at this point, and Shadeun has made a strong case for a policy lynch. Zak feels like he is trying to shut down that line of attack with this post:

Since everybody has switched to discussing scum pairs I guess I will do the same. I think AdrienIer + Novice makes a lot of sense holistically speaking, closely followed by AdrienIer + Gazglum. Maybe AdrienIer + Shadeun works too, but I'm not getting scum vibes from Shadeun today.

Gazglum, I suspected Bob yesterday so I lynched him. I'm suspecting AdrienIer today, so I'm voting to lynch him. You can try to construct a contradiction out of that by spamming me with nearly-identical questions, or focus on something more productive.

Rowain, by staying on AdrienIer, I did get to decide whether he or Bob should hang. Why would I switch to 3:3:2 to "ensure that one of them would hang"? That makes no sense.

I did not mean to say earlier that I was equally uneasy with all the AdrienIer voters. I was most uneasy with Lewwyn, and a little uneasy with Rowain and Shadeun. And before anyone asks, my opinions have evolved since then. Shadeun didn't really articulate a proper reason for voting for AdrienIer. But he was more eloquent during the night, pointing out (in a very towny way) why I made a bad call by switching to Bob.

If AdrienIer flips innocent then I would likely turn back to Rowain and Shadeun. Gazglum and Novice could still be scum, but I mainly suspect them as AdrienIer's buddy.

As people have been pointing out, Mattimeo is compatible with just about anyone, except probably not AdrienIer. Lynching him for purely strategic reasons feels risky to me, but maybe you can argue that it's necessary. We should still keep discussing who the scum are in the event that he is innocent, though. Ideally he feels better and makes a convincing comeback.

Rowain again not sold on Zak/Matt

Because I highly doubt scum zak would switch to lynch Bob making the deciding vote when his scumbuddy Matt has been sitting on Bob all day. novice+zak is different in that regard.

But Rowain does think Zak is scum, and votes him here.

Now Matt makes a big post arguing strongly for Adrien and Zak (I think the first strong outline of this pair?) He then joins Zak on Adrien. He points out Zak's capacity to flip off his 'target' at the last minte.

Now, can we just come back to:

It's true that I held you while they beat the hell out of you. Sorry Bob. On the other hand thanks to Zak's good refreshing skills I'm still alive. Now I'll just leave that here :

[...]
Bob votes zak for "for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction"". And yet, the only person who's read anything off that is Bob. Seems to me, wanting to kill off a reasonably strong player and scrabbling for an actual justification to do so. Also, jumping on an established wagon - his vote brought zak up to 3, clear leader. Not liking that play at all.
[...]
Bobchillingworth

If Bob does die for his earlier message and ends up town I'll remember this.

"now that I've switched last minute to ensure Bob dies, let's everyone recall my previous statement that x other person should be implicated if Bob flips town".

And then, the night kill on Lewwyn. The one who, during the night, said

If Adrien is scum its more likely that Zak is scum, but if Adrien is village then Zak is most likely town. Scum Zak won't switch over at the end unless Adrien is scum. But don't think that Zak wouldn't switch to save his scumbuddy in an obvious move. In a game with such low numbers, scum have to risk it a bit because the loss of just one scum member is devastating.

That last sentence is really telling. Scum do have to risk it with such small numbers. They need to make obvious plays, and hope they play off. And it really looks like they are. Zak is setting up nicely to emulate Lewwyn (his scumbuddy at the time) in WW21 - sit on his buddy all day, every day, merely to switch off to the lynch target right at the end. Which won it for them then, so it's proven to work, if done right.


Defence-wise, there's not all that much for me to actually argue against.
Gaz's case appears to be "Matt is potential scum whether or not Adrien is guilty". Note, merely potential. One of three options, in both instances. So he goes for me. And yet, hasn't made any comment at all on my response to the question he directly asked me, even though he's been around.
Adrien, notably, just follows Gazglum, despite stating a preference for Shadeun. Not interested in setting up a competing wagon especially with previous tendencies (and following votes) making it look like whatever wagon on a town forms will be competing against the one on him.
Novice doesn't give much reasoning, other than the apparent "let's pick an existing wagon".
Shadeun flips back to me 'cause I'm lurking.

But yeah. AdrienIer and Zak are pretty much my suspects here. Only two scum, and a mountainous game. You have to play aggressive. And it really looks like they're just using a tactic that's been proven to work (while killing off the one who used it, no less).

Rowain immediately asks Matt, why not join him on Zak instead?
Shadeun also asks Matt that, saying he thinks Zak works in more pairs than Adrien does.

Matt responds:

@Matt
Why not going after zakalwe then?

The case on Zak is pretty much entirely dependent on Adrien bring scum. I mean, little hard for the "sit on scum buddy all day then switch last minute" theory to play out if the person he's been sitting on all day (Adrien) turns out to not actually be scum.

If you force a race between Zak and non-Adrien, then (apart from being suspicious of your motives) I'll come down on Zak, but Adrien's the one I've suspicions of regardless of pair, while Zak I'm mostly suspicious of as a partner of Adrien.

The votes at this point are probably swirling around both scum:

2 votes: Mattimeo ( AdrienIer, Shadeun)
2 votes: AdrienIer (zakalwe, Mattimeo)
2 votes: zakalwe (Rowain, Gazglum)
1 votes: Rowain ( novice )

At this point ADrien attacks Zak for Day 1, but backs off immediately when Novice questions him on it.

I move to Rowain, with a song in my heart and a smile on my lips.
Shadeun votes Rowain, but says Zak his 'close second' choice.

I think also that Zak + Adrien doesn't work that well either after Adrien's post. But I suppose this could be covering

I also think Matt has done enough here to remove my pressure/meta votes removal. I still think (perhaps) it is easiest for town to win if we lynch matt (simply because Matt seems least likely to be killed at night)

So Rowain because play has been different to usual and a lack of pressure placed on matt yesterday just seems completely out-of-the-usual.

Zakalwe was a close second and didn't vote because AdrienIer's post convinced me Zak+Adrien more unlikely. Therefore the argument for Zak working in 2 combinations (+adrien, +rowain) while rowain works in 1 (+zak) no longer stands. Also: I rate rowain+matt to be more likely than zak+matt (gut feel here, just because rowain more).

Adrien does a last minute scramble off Rowain, I order him back on.
We kill Rowain, oops. Shadeun immediately says he will need to reread but he is now considering Zak as top suspect, then Adrien/Matt.

I think we all come out of Day 2 looking a bit crap, frankly.