So quiet here.
So I've basically concluded that we are not MC's first choice target. If he had planned on hitting us he would have gone construction first built a bunch of cats and then whipped Knights. That can all change of course and will if we let it. I caught up on the power graphs since I'm still concerned about MC's direction. This could be a little inaccurate since I didn't have T115 demos, but it should be proportional at least. Power as of T115 based on T116 graphs:
Conclusion First:
-MC doesn't have the power to hit anyone quite yet.
-Retep should be a NO-GO for MC. I don't think that MC can be successful there.
-Grimace with 75% odds G3 - another difficult fight, but MC at least has the pop and production to push through with enough numbers. But he's going to take heavy losses.
-We're safeish,....choke should hold for now if barely.
---------------------------MC----------------------------------------
-I basically took my earlier army composition assmption and added Knights to fill the gap.
MC Hypothetical Army for power of 363K
Knights-6, Spears-5, HA-7, Archer-8, Axe-7, Chariot-2, Warrior-4
Assumptions:
City Sizes (12 cities): 15,13,11,9,9,7,7,5,5,3,3,1
Power Buildings: 7 barracks (3K), 7 forges (2K), 5 stables (2K). 1 wall (2K), MOAI (10K)
Power techs: exclude construction and alphabet.
When I look at this, I don't think that he's going to attack for more than 5T. So we could be sitting in nerve-wracking limbo for awhile.
-----------------------------RETEP-----------------------------------------------
I did a take on Retep's army (power=334K) as well:
Cats(?)-5, Spears-16, HA(?)-10, Archer-8, Axe-7, Chariot-2, warrior-3
Assumptions:
City Sizes (12 cities): 11,9,9,7,7,5,5,3,3,2,2,1
Power Buildings: 7 barracks, 5 walls, 3 stables, MOAI
Power techs: Has basic techs + alphabet (no MC, no Machinery). I included Construction and HBR,...his tech is roughly equal to our own, maybe a little better so he should have at least one of those.
At only 4K each, that 334K power translates into a lot of spears. If Retep doesn't have HBR for example, those 10 HA would translate into an additional 15 spears or 17.5 spears really due to tech power. So Retep should be able to repel MC through sheer volumne of pointy objects. I can't see MC heading in that direction since Retep should be able to shred him with a defender's advantage. MC could pick up a couple of cities through forking of course and maybe hold them with protective LBs,...but it's a high risk move for what is probably only going to amount to a couple of cities. He is Master Commodore however.
-------------------------------GRIMACE---------------------------------------------------------------
Grimace: Starting to really lag now. However, his army remains a reasonable deterrant.
Army: Gallic-13, Archer-8, Axe-5, Chariot-3, Warrior-4 (probably has more archers & axes so the G3s should be less but he should be building them exclusively now).
Assumptions:
City Sizes: 9,7,7,5,5,3,3,1,1,1
Power Buildings: 6 barracks, 5 dun, MOAI
Tech: His economy looks pretty bad for a long-time now so he'll be missing a bunch of tech. No alphabet, no MC(?-4K), no construction, Math I did include (6K).
C2 Knight vs G3 hilled city: 30.7% (25% with full fort)
C2 Knight vs G3 unhilled city: 78.2%/70.2% with full fort
C2 Knight vs C1 Spear: 70.7%/65.4%
G3 vs C2 Knight in hilled city: W/R/L 33.3%/33.3%/33.3%
G3 vs CG1 LB on hilled city: W/R/L 32.5%-33.7%-33.7%
This is MC's most likely path but he's going to take some losses. He can easily win cities with no hills to reduce Grimace in size. Skid Row and the gems city are not on hills so those will be easy conquests. The rest he'll have to really work for and could face serious counter-attack. If MC catches the G3's on flatland it'll be a very fast war.
We can consider razing MC's closest city to help Grimace out. I'm going to recommend again a DOW to give Grimace 10T of enforce peace with us so that he can concentrate everything towards MC. It's a little scary to do with what could as many as 13 G3s,...
--------------------------------HAK--------------------------------------------------------------------
My spreadsheet matched your power within +/- 2K. I will note that I didn't include galley's in MC/retep/Grimace but they're only worth 2K each.
Army: WE-2, Cat-4, Spear-8, Archer-11, Axe-10, Chariot-2, warrior-1.
Since archers don't count for too much anymore (21% chance of beating a C2 Knight with CG1, hill, full fort) and since we don't have enough cats&WEs to attack out yet we are probably at the bottom of the group deterrant-wise. Everything is resting on our chokepoint holding. Right now Master Commodore doesn't have the power necessary to beat our choke (and won't likely for the next 3 turns). However, if he gets cats that will change in his favour so we do need to keep pumping out our offensive military so that we can credibly threaten an incoming stack.
--------------------------------Gavagai---------------------------------------------------------
That top power is really impressive. It's not GJ or Master Commodore, not likely Donovan given peace with Elkad so,...Gavagai. I used Retep as a near-equivalent given the same 11 cities as of T105, and that power could translate into as many as 33 horse archers!!!!
So that would be terrifying and would necessitate an economy-wide whip down to deflect.
What's equally impressive is that he increased from 307K on T107 to 425K on T116. Assuming all HA, this would translate into 14HA to 33HA in the span of 9T - over 2 HA per turn. We need to be mindful that MC can accomplish the same or better but with Knights.
Borsche is either going to whip every city he has into the ground or he's going to die. Or both. :LOL: Another option is to make an exodus onto our lands. If he fights tooth-and-nail for his homeland our job should be pretty easy. If instead he evacuates we could be surprised by a whole lot of units. So we'll have to be a little careful with our attack.
Vacations over HAK. :LOL:
