[NO PLAYERS] PB25 Lurker Thread - Then Happy I, That Lurk and am Belurked

[Tasunke]

Seems legit. To both plans ... actually they might almost make *too* much sense xD


"There is no greater instruction manual than in the mind" :zen:

[Grimace]

Yay! Now I can finally read and post.

I actually thought the map was pretty cool. I think were a top-tier player in my start things would have been very different. I did have one of the worse starts, but Commodore was about the same and he managed to turn it into a likely win. I made some bad decisions which were compounded by all of my neighbors expanding towards me (particularly HAK's really aggressive marble city).

I'm still really annoyed at myself for misreading Commodore's diplo note. I was just so sure he was going to come at me I assumed he was demanding tribute and didn't really LOOK at it.

But hey, I had fun, and that's why I play.

[spacetyrantxenu]

Quick question for you, Grimace. Were you playing a secret environmentalist variant? You left a lot of trees unchopped, even when you were down in your death spiral. Even if it would be too late to save you, chopped trees at least maybe could have given you some more units. Before the conquest more chops could have given you a bigger snowball to fight back with? Any insight? ... Or secret variant reveal?

[Grimace]

To be honest, it was partly a result of not having enough workers (I was focused more on resources and, towards the end, cottages, because my economy was crap), and partly some hairbrained idea about holding on to them for wonder purposes. Of course that didn't apply once I knew the pain was coming, but Commodore's invasion was so rapid I wouldn't have had time to chop much without handing him the workers.

[The Black Sword]

Any thoughts on HAK's decision to attack Gav?

Initially my thinking is that it was a mistake. Gav is going to be tougher vs you than Elkad or Retep will be vs Comm. Instead I thought they could raze and replace Comm's two southern border cities to reel Comm back in. Looking at the map that would be 21 cities for them, 19 for Comm, instead of the other way around.

But I think I've been won over by their arguments. Once they hit those 21 cities they're going to need to expand again and where do they go? Either through Comm, Krill's Battle Island or Gavagai. Comm actually has the better geopolitical position. It might be theoretically possible to outplay Comm peacefully from there, putting enough pressure on him that he can't expand himself. But that would be very difficult and I don't see HAK being able to do it to Comm/Dtay. So if they need to expand again, then their best opportunity is going to be right now through Gavagai, before he starts to catch up.

Still, despite the update with Gav's lack of defenses, I think they need Donovan or Krill to join a dogpile or their advance will peter out too quickly.

Anybody see things differently?

[Mardoc]

Strategically it makes sense to me. Not only hitting Gav - but the timing is pretty good too. They're an era ahead in miltech, he hasn't had any time for consolidation - low GNP still, low culture, probably equal MFG. Meanwhile, they have a lot of Rathauses, so won't crash their economy.

I do agree that they probably need to cause a dogpile - but I think that's more likely than not to actually happen if they get some modest to good success. Donovan needs to expand. Krill probably does too. If HAK can inflict enough pain and distraction, he'll make Gavagai the obviously best option for said expansion. Both of them should also be ahead of Gav in miltech by now as well, although I'd expect them to need some time to build and position their armies.

Also - as far as I can tell, Gavagai is the least likely of their options to hold a grudge if they only manage a partial success and want to peace out.

I'm worried about HAK/Mindy's tactics, though. It helps to catch him with his army on the other side of his empire, but basing their army composition around 1-movers is going to limit their options and their speed. Landsknechts are great against every unit in Gav's army...except the catapult. Which he ought to want to build en masse even before he sees their army comp. It doesn't matter what bonuses the HRE units get if they start out the fight at 25% health.

So mostly, I see this as a question of whether their strategic advantages can outweigh tactical missteps. It'll be fun to watch, though!

[Bobchillingworth]

I love how Mindy now has two other people referring to Commodore as "MC".

[Hesmyrr]

I love how Mindy now has two other people referring to Commodore as "MC".

Power of the abbreviations!

[GermanJoey]

Any thoughts on HAK's decision to attack Gav?

Initially my thinking is that it was a mistake. Gav is going to be tougher vs you than Elkad or Retep will be vs Comm. Instead I thought they could raze and replace Comm's two southern border cities to reel Comm back in. Looking at the map that would be 21 cities for them, 19 for Comm, instead of the other way around.

But I think I've been won over by their arguments. Once they hit those 21 cities they're going to need to expand again and where do they go? Either through Comm, Krill's Battle Island or Gavagai. Comm actually has the better geopolitical position. It might be theoretically possible to outplay Comm peacefully from there, putting enough pressure on him that he can't expand himself. But that would be very difficult and I don't see HAK being able to do it to Comm/Dtay. So if they need to expand again, then their best opportunity is going to be right now through Gavagai, before he starts to catch up.

Still, despite the update with Gav's lack of defenses, I think they need Donovan or Krill to join a dogpile or their advance will peter out too quickly.

Anybody see things differently?

Strategically, the idea of attacking Gav seems extremely risky to me. Assuming that they are successful in their initial invasion, which they should be:

1.) First, it drives Gav to look for an alliance with Commodore rather than allowing him to try to kick him off that landmass.

2.) If retep NAPs Commodore again (and Com is certainly strong enough to force it), Com could hit HAK's flank, and because HAK's entire military is 1-movers and galleys, there is zero chance he could bring it back in any reasonable timeframe.

3.) I agree that they need help from Donovan or Krill to dogpile Gavagai in order for this attack to be quick enough to prevent stallout, but Krill is tied up with Elkad and Com. That leaves Donovan, but Donovan is now close enough to Com that Com could prevent him from committing without needing to dedicate significant resources towards it.

4.) Gavagai is pretty close to Machinery, which is the tech he needs to stall out the HRE. Landschneckt are extremely susceptible to xbows and trebs... and he'll have no reason to allow them to lightly garrison their western front, even if the HRE are able to make significant gains early. Gav wrecked his game to get that land, he won't give it up lightly.

I dunno, it would be really good for them if they can indeed induce the dogpile and then get out nice and neatly, but that really relies on hoping that other people will do what they want with no way, that, at least, I can see to manipulate geopolitics to make that happen.

[Grimace]

Whoa, it's turning bloody out there!