And he covered Diplo. Thought that was likely...just also thought 10% odds of razing was worth the gamble. Still means that the chariots have gone 2 dead in exchange for 2 vultures, a worker, and a distraction, so that sideshow was worthwhile.
This is the turn of reckoning at home. 17 Vultures, 4 Spears, with a mix of promotions, vs. 10 axes, 1 spear, 1 archer, 1 chariot. It'll be close, and probably depend a lot on how much damage our axes sustain in the first round of vultures. If we survive the turn, we we be able to add three axes to the garrison (1 built, 2 from the periphery)...so a little bit of luck right now might lead to complete Sumerian failure.
Or...a little bit of luck his way, and he'll wipe us with modest casualties - just needs enough of those 20-30% softening battles to actually become victories. Just got to cross our fingers, wait, and see.
So, I logged in.
Looked around.
Nervously.
We held!
More than that, actually. We still have an army.
And Jowy...nearly does not! At least not visible.
I think we can counterattack and kill his stack entirely, then maybe-perhaps proceed to Triceratops again. If I spend the GG on a bunch more Shock promos...just need to pause and plot this out carefully. Want to boost the maximum number of units while still getting enough for Shock everywhere - and of course we need the help healing. Currently we cannot get odds on his 4.9 health Shock axe, but I haven't spent XP yet.
And, of course, Jowy follows up with this!
Still no offer of any cities, not even Triceratops which he cannot hold. He's...really lacking in empathy. Dude...short of a misclick, why would I ever accept an offer like this, at this point in the game? What's in it for me? If you don't want to give me anything, if you think you can hold all the conquests...fine. Make it a matter of tactics. But don't insult me by offering white peace.
Combat log, if you're interested in seeing a whole bunch of green text with a smidge of red
We lost...archer, four axes, and a spear. To kill 13 vultures and a spear. That's almost a 3:1 hammer exchange!
Note the typical pattern: once he's begun the attack, he really can't stop without using the whole stack - he won four of the last six battles, after all. Stopping early would have been even more pointless for him. And I think that my chariot diversion may have been the main reason we held - if he had four more Vultures, they would certainly all have gotten kills - may have given some of his later units better odds, for that matter. For all that the situation is delightful - our units are generally at half health, after healing. They must have been all redlined, ready for the slightest breeze to kill them.
So here's the situation. I'm going to wait a little bit before I proceed, in case one of us sees a reason not to attempt to kill Jowy's units. And to make sure I've got my arithmetic right - would be bad to accidentally end up just short of Shock. My biggest hesitation is that I don't want to risk turning victory into defeat by throwing away our stack when he's on the defense. If he weren't so wounded, there'd be no point - it's those juicy half-health units that tempt me.
Now, all that said...we're still in Gadfly status, at most. If anything, it's prolonged the time in game, since I'm sure Jowy won't attempt us again until he's either got a new army, bigger, or cats, or we make some sort of obvious blunder.
So if I'm counting right...there's no great way to run the GG. We have five axes who could have shock with 1 or 2 more XP, and two who need 4 XP, plus the one who already has shock but could heal more with 4 XP. That adds up to...we could either run the GG on five axes, to get 4 XP each, which will mostly be overkill, taking axes to 7XP rather than any useful number. Or we can give everyone XP, 3's and 2's, which doesn't overkill the 2XP-needers, but doesn't get the other three to their next promotion. Either way, five units get a promo.
I think, maybe, we could use it on six units. That would be 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3. That would require us to move out the 13 XP unit and one of the 1 XP'ers (plus the chariot), and move in the newbie from the north to ensure all the rest got shock. I hate splitting the stack, though - it makes us vulnerable if we can't get a complete wipe, or means some units spend their whole movement going out and back in rather than fighting. I'm not really sure how to force the 4 XP to go where I want it, also.
We could be safe and just give everyone 2 XP. That would leave us a couple units at 3, which isn't enough for Shock, but would be if they win a fight. Which can probably be arranged, when it's time for the spearmen or that 1.9 health Vulture (or cleaning up from lost fights). Going to get myself some dinner and keep mulling, but this is the direction I'm leaning.
I'm 95% sure it makes sense to use the GG no matter what we do next - Jowy might be tempted to hit us again with those healthy units if we don't heal. I am, however, debating whether attacking out *really* makes sense. We just got an object lesson in the value of defense modifiers . And wounded unit vs. wounded unit...is even more RNG dependent than usual. It would be really really sad to follow up a 14 v 6 slaughter with giving Jowy the cap.
But then, would it be better to let Jowy promote these units (remember, they all won fights), retreat and heal? It would basically kill any hope of taking Triceratops, and make it much easier for him to come back for round two.
Also. Ahem. We were just talking about the Fenn/Jowy peace treaty running out. Last I looked, Fenn had finally started rebuilding an army in earnest. If he sees a 20-unit slaughter on Jowy's graph, he's that much more likely to hit him again than if he sees a 14-unit kill, right?
So probably I'm going to roll the dice once I get back from dinner. And my gut (non-simmed) says that probably we'll win when I do that. Lose a couple fights, cause the RNG is never perfectly on your side (especially when the odds are close to 50%, which at least the first couple will likely be), but 2 or 3 to six is another victory.
Am I being greedy/stupid/overoptimistic? Or is that a correct reading of the situation, and paranoid failure to attack would just throw away a golden opportunity?
You're probably asleep. But you'll be glad to know it worked out.
Did the 10 unit boost. The first unit had odds of 51.4%, but we won. After that, our worst odds were 74%, and we only lost one unit - one of the 3 XP'er who I was attempting to get Shock. Better than I dared hope .
Which makes this whole campaign 23 dead Sumerians to 9 dead HRE (counting the chariot engagements). I'm...pretty sure Jowy won't be trying again the same way. . I look forward to seeing the shark fin in a couple turns. Of course we're still doomed in the long run, but today is not that day.
I considered continuing the focused axe building campaign, but honestly I don't expect we can do much better attacking him, except maybe in Triceratops - hill and culture and fortify bonuses are pretty significant, after all. So instead we have two settlers and a barracks in queues. Will grab the wheat spot, the copper spot, and heal our army, and see what happens next. Still researching Construction at a trickle - I may be able to put down some more cottages and speed that a smidge now.
Should be able to snipe Triceratops at least, maybe Velociraptor as well after it's cut off from his empire. I thought about demanding them from Jowy for peace...but, well, that white peace offer on login makes me think he's too confident to have any chance of agreeing, not unless it's his idea. Maybe we'll manage with cats - or maybe Fenn will do something to give us an opportunity.
I guess I won't be out of this game next week. Strangely, though, it's not quite the same degree of suffering it was
And, of course, Jowy follows up with this! 
