This is gonna be good: von Adlercreutz and Taotao

[taotao]

Somehow that last post just felt too hopeful.
I have no further intel yet, but actually before playing my turn I managed to think of a scenario that would fit better with all doom & gloom fantasts over here.
Theory: CH spotted a Serdoa stack, but it's aimed at me rather than CH.
I already stated that any stack can be wiped in this era. CH might've (correctly) felt that he could take Mondatta. If that comes at the expense of a freshly rested Serdoa swooping in to kill off whatever units are left on both sides, then that's a trade not worth doing though. Much better to let Serdoa take the first hit from my remaining units.

In support:
- CH has better vision than me into a couple of areas south of Overspark where it'd make sense for Serdoa to stage a stack heading for Sevastopol.
- Overall it'd make better sense for Serdoa not hiding his units to CH if they're headed for me instead.
- Sevastopol is my most weakly defended border city with Serdoa.
- Serdoa has two workers on a tile that would benefit greatly from a road if he was to attack (but unlike the workers that triggered my CH conflict, these workers have a very plausible pretext in them building a watermill...)
- Fits very well with CH not wanting to risk his units, but nor wanting a peace treaty at this point.

In response I did send CH a peace treaty. And I did stay my hand from generating that great general (if I do get peace I might come to regret this). I also moved some units in range (if I had Engineering) of the tile he'd enter if he attacked Sevastopol. This tile is in view for Serdoa, but it's meant as an acknowledgment that I see the danger of (and can prepare for) a Serdoa attack, not as high risk units in the fog that might be enough to put a dent in an attacking force...


Foreign news:
I've gotten a visual on a dtay galleon, so it is confirmed that he's started rapidly colonizing his own islands.
HAK declared on boak which should make Gav happy (and large). I'm almost considering trying to send a small force to try to raze the shrine city (actually had a loaded EI on my way to Gavs important cities, but I turned it around when things started to look bad on my CH front).
Barteq built Notre Dame a few turns ago and whipped/drafted(?) 15 times this turn. Attack incoming?

[taotao]

Foreign news:
Boak is getting dog-piled. I feel sorry for him.

Domestic(ish) news:
I'm getting dog-piled. I feel sorry for myself.

Further explanation. Serdoa hasn't declared war yet, but I can see his stack of 30 knights and 13 catapults (+ about 10cats and lots of ancient stuff in Overspark one tile away). I may be able to switch to slavery/nationhood next turn when Taj/gunpowder should finish, but it's not looking good and I don't really have a plan either.

On top of that CH has co-ordinated his last(?) main stack of 14 units (+some extras in other places) to also hit next turn.
On his own I could take out that stack, but now it looks pretty terrible.
I was almost starting to get my hopes up thinking that they might just give me enough time to scramble together enough deterrence, but alas, that was not to be...

Edit: What the... I just see that Serdoa has built a road on forested border tile. I have no clue how I didn't spot those workers last turn. Sure, my focus might've been on the water milling worker on another attack-route a tile away, but still, can't wrap my head around this (not that I expect it to matter)

[taotao]

Continuing on my journey from tiny bits of hope to despair and back to the clinging to remnants of hope...

My reasoning for believing that Serdoa's about to attack this turn is mainly based on him roading the border last turn.
However, since I must've missed the roading last turn, he actually could've attacked then, but didn't.
If he was to attack this turn it'd initially only be his knights that could enter my territory, the cats are out of position.
If he holds off the attack for one more turn, then I'd be able to do my switch to slavery/nationhood, inferring my position as a most costly conquest.
Finally, Serdoa's been building up troops at a quick pace, but he recently ended a GA and switched into emancipation which isn't the most war-friendly of civics. If a good opportunity arises I'm fairly confident that Serdoa will throw his stack into battle, but it just might be that he's still sitting on the fence of whether to launch an attack. For that reason I've tried to show him that I'm not completely spent (even moving good hitters out of position from CHs likely next move). I doubt it'll work, but I believe it might still be worth a shot.

(there's also a positive side in Serdoa hitting here down south that it'll take him a bit longer before he reaches my old core).




Edit: Yeah, I forgot to mention. Serdoa also had two score increases last tun which might mean he's started colonizing islands. Another point for him not launching an attack just now.

[taotao]

Was greeted this turn by this offer:




I was actually a bit surprised by the offer and had to think about it for a while. I knew (from civstats) that CH had planted a new city last turn. I could also see something called New Maersk in his city list, so I knew quite well what was afoot. In a vacuum I doubt I'd give CH peace at this point. I can already defend adequately against him and soon I expect I could be the one with superior numbers in the area. However, I still remember seeing all those Serdoa units nearby. If we go to war, the last thing i want is another guy piling on and making me lose those initial cities faster. More importantly, I don't want to go to war with Serdoa at the moment. My philosophy to war is that it's a necessary evil to get ahead, but a war between equally matched opponents normally just leads to both parties being dragged down compared to opponents. I'm feeling slightly more optimistic at the moment and think that there's a possibility of me deterring Serdoa from attacking, but that might require me to do some things I'm not too fond of. Like accepting a white peace offer when I'm the stronger party...
Peace accepted


All in all, I'd say this war went:
CH - me
1 - 0

CH got a new city in a good location, but it was far from free (unit losses + settler and no free infra/pop).
Myself I lost a decent city and some units, but gained a GG-healer. Most importantly it made me weak compared to Serdoa though, keeping me on my back foot now.
I also took a severe economical hit. Before the war, I thought I might grab liberalism on t148. Now it might be something like t156, if I even dare go straight to that route instead of more militarily oriented techs.


On to happier news:



I got Taj!
I didn't think anyone would beat me to it, but who knew for sure if there'd be a person with a GE [newly generated or a really old one (have 2/4 unaccounted for)] that might sneak past me?

Next question was what civics to adopt? A couple of turns ago I would've said nationhood and slavery for sure, but suddenly I wasn't as certain. I wanted to crank out units quickly, but both alternatives come at a somewhat hefty financial expense (not as bad as mass upgrading of ha's to knights is, but still painfully felt).
Slavery would have its uses. Actually, I had set up several island cities to start whipping infra this turn, so it wouldn't be purely military builds. Still, 1 pop for 25-30h when that pop in almost a worst case would be working a 2f2h tile, that didn't sound super amazing. Not when you're paying way over 100commerce/t for the privilege.
Nationhood would also cost me, but not as much as slavery (~40g/t in unit upkeep). The xp on units will be missed (especially since I'll be producing quite a lot of units in the next 5t), but I feel that with an earlier promotion advantage on Serdoa it is more important that I get numbers to similar levels rather than me having a few extra elite units.
Finally there was the psychological aspect. Not much says don't attack me like 15-20 whips/drafts per turn. With me peacing out with CH, I'm hoping that my status as a tasty conquest is starting to fade though. In the end I didn't dare be without both alternatives, but I did keep emancipation for 5t longer to see if I could get some more 'leading-the-field'-teching done.

[mackoti]

I realy wanted your report so crisis was stoped, with 12 turns of GA you should be fine on tech front.
Can i loggin just to luck around, and will be more than happy to sub, but you'll have to do a detalied plan.

[taotao]

I realy wanted your report so crisis was stoped, with 12 turns of GA you should be fine on tech front.
Can i loggin just to luck around, and will be more than happy to sub, but you'll have to do a detalied plan.

Sure, just log in whenever you want.
Happy to hear that you can sub for me!
I saw that you've at least read Serdoas and the lurker thread, so I'll try to provide as good instructions as possible.
Still haven't decided on tech targets etc just yet and things will of course change if Serdoa does decide to attack, so it might be another week before posting a plan.

[mackoti]

I just logged in to check if serdoa declared war as you didnt reported, and looks like someone else will get a hard hit...,No i dont know this from serdoa thread as he doesnt report at all, but from how serdoa did moved his ubber stack..., how many turns left from peace perhaps you can scavange something fro CH...

[mackoti]

was spoilerish with no spoilers in it.

[taotao]

I just logged in to check if serdoa declared war as you didnt reported, and looks like someone else will get a hard hit...,No i dont know this from serdoa thread as he doesnt report at all, but from how serdoa did moved his ubber stack..., how many turns left from peace perhaps you can scavange something fro CH...

Yeah, I actually saw that as well. It's quite a few turns until I'm allowed to hit CH (8 or so), so it might be hard to get a lot of cities, but opportunities may arise. (It's also possible that I could snipe something from Serdoa if CH puts up a good defense, but it might be wiser to stay at peace).
Serdoa is btw the first person to paper, but if no one has a GS or two on hold there's even a possibility of becoming first liberalism still out there...

DTay also has a 6-move galley close to my capital.
If he has any units on board he could raze an island city or two of ours, but I've held back on moving up units from the mainland so he shouldn't be able to raze the cap or anything like that (unless he gets lucky and has something like 3 amphibious knights or so).

[taotao]

So, time to start making up a plan I believe?

I won't have time to do it all at once, but I'll start nibbling at pieces here and there.

Tech situation:
When I entered the GA I took a bit of a calculated risk and stayed in emancipation. This was done mainly to be sure to keep the possibility of teching to either liberalism or economics during the golden age and switch to respective economic-civics on last(?) turn of GA.

This turn I got paper and a look at the trade screen reveals...

...that the other continent really is slightly backwards.

In fact, we still have a small shot at liberalism and I think we should try to take it.

- Serdoa was the first to paper 2t ago, but he's half way invested in printing press afterwards and should be beat by us.
- Yuri got paper a turn ago, but current funds plus his comparatively poor teching power means we should easily pass him unless he's got help by a bulb or two.
- REM is our real challenger. We're actually quite similar in current teching power and we both got paper this turn. We have more saved money, but really, this could go either way.
- other people are generally too far behind to be in with a shot, but of course there's always a small risk of several bulbs (particularly from one of Ichabod or plako)...

What would we be fighting for? Well, the economics merchant is up for grabs at least and if both REM and we go ->lib then I bet that's what he'd take. Personally though, if we do get liberalism first I'm pretty sure I'd take constitution. Switching into representation, (vassalage), serfdom, mercantilism and free religion at the end of the GA sounds pretty sweet in my ears.

One thing to remember is that REM has research visibility on us. I wonder what he'd do if he notices that we'd get lib on the same turn? Would he take the fifty-fifty or would he go straight for economics?

(While REM is being discussed I should probably mention that he's in police state at the moment. I don't think it's particularly worrisome though (yet). His power is still way below ours and his other civics are Bureau (no extra 2xp), emancipation (no slavery for quick units) and OR (builder mentality, no extra 2xp from theo).