So I think I have completely screwed myself over. I had been miscounting when the enforced peace would be over, thinking that I had 1 more turn of peace. Thinking about it now, it was such a stupid mistake, I should have thought about it more. Nevertheless, war can be declared next turn, and I have 2 workers in a very vulnerable position (flat ground, not even a river to hide behind), and covering them with units may well cost me those units (and the workers), scuppering any attack on Ecbatana.
Gawdzak whipped twice this turn, and I'm going to assume that both went into immortals. However, he did not whip his capital, and even if he had, the immortal would not be able to attack the tile next turn. So the only way he could have an immortal ready to strike is if he timed a chop into it, and a forest by his cap has recently vanished, but I'm not sure when exactly. However, rival best in soldiers did not go up from last turn, but rival average has been going up.
He has 1 worker on the horses ready to road, and I have to assume he has another in the fog, allowing him to finish the road next turn.
I decided to roll the dice and put my axe there to cover the workers. If he has an immortal waiting in the fog to strike, I'm in trouble. I think I'll be able to hold MoT, but I'll lose 2 workers and some units. I may be able to strike back and take out some if his units, and maybe even Ecbatana, but I'm not hopeful.
Assuming the worse, I'll lose any chance of burning Ecbatana, lose a bunch of units, and 2 workers. How would I feel about my position then? Not good, but not hopeless. My demos are still strong, and as much as I would like to burn Ecbatana, I can live with it surviving. Holding MoT is more important. It would be a pretty big setback, and I'll need to whip a few cities, putting my expansion on hold for the time being, to be able to stabilize and defend, and since Gawdzak got his fifth city out already, I'd be behind him. I would have to put on hold any further plans to attack Gawdzak, and wait for another opportunity, or focus on the islands instead.
Edit: could any of the lurkers tell me if there is a delay on power graphs? And if there is, how long that delay is? I tried to look around online to find out but there was nothing on a delay, but I seem to remember that there is one from reading other pitbosses.
(April 14th, 2016, 06:17)GermanJoey Wrote: Yes, there's a 1-2 turn delay on the power graphs, depending on when your respective turns get processed in the pitboss order.
Is there a similar delay on soldier count in the demos screen?
No disaster. He ran away with the worker, and moved the Immortal (that I knew he had) into Ecbatana, instead of killing those units and my workers. There are three possibilities that I can think of that led to this.
1) Gawdzak wants to avoid war if he can, and so doesn't want to start one when he cannot be sure that I am going to start one, especially since I have the lead on the power graph.
2) He thought that it was a trap and I had other units in position to capitalize on any move out of the defenders of Ecbatana.
3) He didn't have another worker that could have finished that road on the horses this turn. If this is the case, I have to wonder why he moved the worker there in the first place.
If I had to guess, I'd assume that he was not expecting me to stay after the chop and build the road, and seeing that I did convinced him that I was about to attack, and that he should stay and defend, instead of going for an opportunistic first strike. Seeing that I have not attacked, he may well be kicking himself now.
Thinking about it with a calmer head, messing up that one worker action and delaying the second chop by a turn already delayed the attack, and this time, I'll have plenty more for the attack in two turns: 3 chariots, 2 axes, and 2 spears; with 2 archers in MoT to defend.
The main reason I want to destroy Ecbatana is that it will put too much cultural pressure on MoT, taking a first ring tile until I get culture of my own in MoT. I could give up on the attack and put that chop+whip into a barracks instead of the spear, and build on my GDP and MFG lead on Gawdzak. But, if I can have my cake and eat it too, I will. A quick strike to burn Ecbatana, then pulling back to REX could also work. It would have the added benefit of getting rid of his source of horses.
I'm still fairly committed to the attack, but if I see too many units in Ecbatana next turn, or he whips a whole bunch more, then I'll rethink it.
(April 14th, 2016, 06:17)GermanJoey Wrote: Yes, there's a 1-2 turn delay on the power graphs, depending on when your respective turns get processed in the pitboss order.
Is there a similar delay on soldier count in the demos screen?
No disaster. He ran away with the worker, and moved the Immortal (that I knew he had) into Ecbatana, instead of killing those units and my workers. There are three possibilities that I can think of that led to this.
1) Gawdzak wants to avoid war if he can, and so doesn't want to start one when he cannot be sure that I am going to start one, especially since I have the lead on the power graph.
2) He thought that it was a trap and I had other units in position to capitalize on any move out of the defenders of Ecbatana.
3) He didn't have another worker that could have finished that road on the horses this turn. If this is the case, I have to wonder why he moved the worker there in the first place.
If I had to guess, I'd assume that he was not expecting me to stay after the chop and build the road, and seeing that I did convinced him that I was about to attack, and that he should stay and defend, instead of going for an opportunistic first strike. Seeing that I have not attacked, he may well be kicking himself now.
Thinking about it with a calmer head, messing up that one worker action and delaying the second chop by a turn already delayed the attack, and this time, I'll have plenty more for the attack in two turns: 3 chariots, 2 axes, and 2 spears; with 2 archers in MoT to defend.
The main reason I want to destroy Ecbatana is that it will put too much cultural pressure on MoT, taking a first ring tile until I get culture of my own in MoT. I could give up on the attack and put that chop+whip into a barracks instead of the spear, and build on my GDP and MFG lead on Gawdzak. But, if I can have my cake and eat it too, I will. A quick strike to burn Ecbatana, then pulling back to REX could also work. It would have the added benefit of getting rid of his source of horses.
I'm still fairly committed to the attack, but if I see too many units in Ecbatana next turn, or he whips a whole bunch more, then I'll rethink it.
Demos occur next turn. No delay. How much would you need to see to stop the attack?
(April 14th, 2016, 18:22)ReallyEvilMuffin Wrote: How much would you need to see to stop the attack?
I'm going to have to run some sims. To be honest, just thinking about it now, the fact that immortals receive defensive bonuses is a real pain, and while I probably could take/burn the city with what I'll have when I attack, it will be very costly, and the addition of almost any other defending unit would make it impossible.
I'm beginning to lean away from the attack completely. Better to leverage my hammer and GDP lead over Gawdzak into a less risky strategy, and just expand and grow, instead of potentially throwing away all my units to kill that one city, leaving myself vulnerable to a counter-attack against MoT.
I'm really starting to see why ancient-era wars are considered such a bad idea in multiplayer civ. Better to wait until I have HAs and cats at the earliest. However, I can go and pillage his horses then pull back without offering/accepting a peace treaty, only cease-fires. My composition would make attacking the stack difficult for Gawdzak, just as attacking Ecbatana is difficult for me.
In the mean time, after I get writing, I'm going to run up the religious branch. Not a single wonder has been built yet, and I've had research visibility on Gawdzak (the only IND player) since he researched Animal Husbandry, and he hasn't gone down for any of those techs. Hinduism and Buddhism have been founded, but there's the potential for Judaism still, which would be nice to combat Gawdzak's CRE-boosted borders. I'm also going to get marble and stone soon enough, making wonders a possibility.
Tentative plan as of right now: Attack Gawdzak and pillage his horses while threatening to attack Ecbatana, doing so if the opportunity presents. Meanwhile get back to REXing, try for Judaism, and start thinking about wonders.
Nothing much to report here, but I did micro my cities a bit, for more food and commerce, and this is the result:
I'm actually running 0% science for 1 more turn, which puts my GDP at 34, 6th place and 1 less than rival average.
One of the reasons that I've overtaken Gawdzak in food is because he's been whipping quite a lot lately, and most of those whips are going into units:
I'm also building units right now so I'm not going to be overtaken any time soon, but it's clear that Gawdzak is building up his military, probably to defend against me, but potentially to attack me as well. Then there's his other neighbor as well, to whom over half of Gawdzak's EP has been directed, who might also be threatening/a target for Gawdzak.
Next turn I'll have enough money to get Writing in 4 turns at 100% science, then going down the religion path (including masonry). I'll have to check to see if I want to build up cash for a run at 100% science again, or run at break-even for these cheaper techs.
Next turn, after 2 of my cities grow and the other 2 finish their production, I'll do a more detailed city report.
Begun turn and was greeted with a peace offer from Gawdzak. I ain't making that mistake again so I rejected and had a look around. He hadn't done anything that I could see, so I'm thinking he just wanted another 10 turn enforced peace, which I am not inclined to give him. I don't want him settling up on my borders again without me being able to do anything about it.
Next turn I'm moving onto the horses tile and pillaging it, I'll have 3 chariots, 2 spears, and 2 axes:
The best odds he can get is a coinflip on attacking with the axe out of Ecbatana, so I doubt he'd attack my stack. The turn after I'll see what he's got in the city, and do some sims.
What is the best way to simulate fortify bonus? I can't rely on the AI to leave those units in the city for exactly as long as I need to get the right bonus.
If I can take the city without losing more than half of my stack I'll go for it, otherwise, I'll move back without offering peace, and I'll continue to reject any peace offers.
City overview:
Wild Child
Grow to size 7 and build a settler, I'll double whip to finish it, then grow back to the happy cap and build a worker while waiting for the whip penalty to wear off, grow back to size 7 building infrastructure/units. Rinse and repeat. At some point after I have a library in here I'll run 2 scientists to get an Academy.
Anywhere Is
Finishes the settler for Orinoco Flow in 3 turns; for the last turn I'll swap the deer for a mine so that I get more hammers overflowing into the next build, which will be an axe or spear, and get it done a turn earlier. Once at the happy cap of 6, AI can work the deer, horses, and 4 mines for a total of 18 hammers a turn, which is enough to 2-turn any ancient-era unit other than HAs and cats. The pigs will go to Orinoco Flow.
Aniron
Just whipped the galley and starts on a worker next turn, which will cottage those riverside grassland tiles. In retrospect I maybe should have waited another turn before whipping the galley, so that I get more overflow going into the worker, but I haven't done the math to know for sure, and it doesn't matter now anyway. The galley will take the following route:
Memory of Trees
Just whipped that spear, the overflow will finish an archer (which I started back when Gawdzak's spear first appeared) in 1 turn, then it will start on a barracks, mainly for the culture. Until it can get some hills into its border, MoT will be too hammer light for a front-line city in my view. The cottage that I started by mistake a few turns back is being finished, so until the borders do expand I'll focus mostly on food, and whip the barracks ASAP.
(April 16th, 2016, 04:54)Mr. Cairo Wrote: Begun turn and was greeted with a peace offer from Gawdzak. I ain't making that mistake again so I rejected and had a look around. He hadn't done anything that I could see, so I'm thinking he just wanted another 10 turn enforced peace, which I am not inclined to give him. I don't want him settling up on my borders again without me being able to do anything about it.
Next turn I'm moving onto the horses tile and pillaging it, I'll have 3 chariots, 2 spears, and 2 axes:
The best odds he can get is a coinflip on attacking with the axe out of Ecbatana, so I doubt he'd attack my stack. The turn after I'll see what he's got in the city, and do some sims.
What is the best way to simulate fortify bonus? I can't rely on the AI to leave those units in the city for exactly as long as I need to get the right bonus.
If I can take the city without losing more than half of my stack I'll go for it, otherwise, I'll move back without offering peace, and I'll continue to reject any peace offers.
City overview:
Wild Child
Grow to size 7 and build a settler, I'll double whip to finish it, then grow back to the happy cap and build a worker while waiting for the whip penalty to wear off, grow back to size 7 building infrastructure/units. Rinse and repeat. At some point after I have a library in here I'll run 2 scientists to get an Academy.
Anywhere Is
Finishes the settler for Orinoco Flow in 3 turns; for the last turn I'll swap the deer for a mine so that I get more hammers overflowing into the next build, which will be an axe or spear, and get it done a turn earlier. Once at the happy cap of 6, AI can work the deer, horses, and 4 mines for a total of 18 hammers a turn, which is enough to 2-turn any ancient-era unit other than HAs and cats. The pigs will go to Orinoco Flow.
Aniron
Just whipped the galley and starts on a worker next turn, which will cottage those riverside grassland tiles. In retrospect I maybe should have waited another turn before whipping the galley, so that I get more overflow going into the worker, but I haven't done the math to know for sure, and it doesn't matter now anyway. The galley will take the following route:
Memory of Trees
Just whipped that spear, the overflow will finish an archer (which I started back when Gawdzak's spear first appeared) in 1 turn, then it will start on a barracks, mainly for the culture. Until it can get some hills into its border, MoT will be too hammer light for a front-line city in my view. The cottage that I started by mistake a few turns back is being finished, so until the borders do expand I'll focus mostly on food, and whip the barracks ASAP.
Demos:
You can edit the unit AI and use city defend, or just place yourself a few cavalry in range as the more power you have outside the city the more in will keep in units. Make sure they don't fork another AI city though as they like to even out their defence
(April 16th, 2016, 04:54)Mr. Cairo Wrote: What is the best way to simulate fortify bonus? I can't rely on the AI to leave those units in the city for exactly as long as I need to get the right bonus.
The most simple is to give city defense promotions or stars for not full fortify, but if you want everything precise then put units with the most fortify in the city, surround it with rocks, skip turns, then put units with lower fortify. After all remove rocks and simulate your group.
