Posts: 13,563
Threads: 49
Joined: Oct 2009
Hi everyone, I've had a busy day and half forgot that this game had started. I kept remembering and then forgetting again. 
Briefly:
- Prometheus, why is backup doctor so powerful? If there's no doctor it's just a vanilla town, right?
- I put Godfather second because it was my second preference, and because I didn't mind some meta town cred. I would have put it first if I had realized we were drawing roles with replacements. As it were I considered putting it third.
- My third pick was vanilla town.
More later.
I have to run.
Posts: 7,902
Threads: 13
Joined: Aug 2006
(July 6th, 2016, 04:21)AdrienIer Wrote: 13h into the game and I've already reread the tread a couple times 
Got a bad feeling on Psi for the moment
I can relate to this. I was thinking about that as I went to bed last night, that Psi's opening posts were in line with what I would expect from scum-him. This makes me feel better about AdrienIer, that he came to the same conclusion.
(July 6th, 2016, 03:53)Jkaen Wrote: Current discard claims:
1. Prometheus - Vanilla Townie; ??????
2. AdrienIer - Hider; 1 shot vig
3. Jkaen - Hider; Vanilla Townie
4. Lewwyn - Vanilla Townie; Mafia Goon
5. Meiz - One-shot Vigilante; Mafia Goon
6. Psillycyber - One-shot Vigilante; Vanilla Townie
7. Dp101 - Mafia Lover; ??????
8. Zakalwe - One-shot Governor; Mafia Doctor
9. Gazglum - Doctor; One-shot Vigilante
10. Rowain - Vanilla Townie; One-shot Governor
11. Fenn - Backup Doctor; Enabler
12. Novice - Mafia Godfather; ???????
So that means of the 12 people playing 5 are claiming that they didnt want to play as mafia.
A few people not wanting the role I would get, especially those who have played it a lot lately (hence my earlier question to Lewwyn), but 5/12 seems a high proportion to me
I'm not sure if the proportion of claimed mafia discards is significant, but thinking about how you'd play this if you were angling to pick a scum role, you wouldn't want your displayed discard to be a strong power role. So by that token, Gazglum is less suspicious, and Lewwyn is more suspicious. He would have ranked his choices so that VT ends up as his displayed discard, so he doesn't have any pressure to claim a strong power role. And mafia goon seems like the perfect claim to intuitively "balance the odds", without being such an attractive scum role that people would ask him why he didn't pick it.
Not really getting scum vibes from Lewwyn so far, but that doesn't invalidate the above.
Prometheus and Rowain also stand out with VT as their displayed discards, which is pretty optimal if you want to play as scum. (Of course, there could also be players who wanted to be scum but didn't have VT as one of their options.  )
If you know what I mean.
Posts: 7,902
Threads: 13
Joined: Aug 2006
(July 6th, 2016, 07:52)Psillycyber Wrote: On novice: Zak asked a good question early on that nobody has followed up on yet: why take mafia godfather as 2nd choice? How do we know that it was novice's 2nd choice? Let's imagine that it was novice's 3rd choice (the only other way that it would show up as novice's public discard). If we assume that novice's 2nd choice (which he would have gotten in this scenario) was town, then why would novice's 1st choice have gotten thrown out if it was also town, only to give him a different town role? Can anyone think why Jabbz would throw out a town role for someone, only to give someone a different town role? I guess a bigger question here (which I don't expect Jabbz to be allowed to tell us) would be: was Jabbz throwing out 1st picks based solely on alignment #s, or also on balancing role strengths? If we assume that Jabbz was mainly balancing for alignment #s, then mafia*-mafia!-town or town-mafia*-mafia! make more sense as novice's order of picks, where mafia* = whatever novice really got, and mafia! = the mafia godfather that novice threw out. Although, now that I think about it, if we are assuming that novice was unlucky enough to get 2 mafia roles when he really wanted to play town, then town*-mafia!-mafia would make sense, where town* = what novice ended up getting. In that case, novice would have had no choice but to have a mafia role show up as his 2nd option. Actually, oddly enough, novice has not posted at all yet, so perhaps he will clear it all up when he gets in.
You seem to be reading an awful lot into my question here. For the record, I basically just assumed that it was Novice's second choice. Maybe I had some sort of logical reasoning for it, but if so, it must have been flawed. I was mainly trying to ask him a question that didn't have a clearly right answer. (Because if it did, he would just feed me that answer.)
If you know what I mean.
Posts: 1,418
Threads: 4
Joined: Nov 2014
Didn't mean to be away for so long, sorry folks.
Gazglum: I've played, I think four games here before; I was scum once, but that was in the game with three scum factions and a cult, so make of that what you will. I made a mess of things that game and got lynched D2. Not my finest hour by any means. FWIW if I had drawn a scum role I'd have ranked it last, I don't have the time or temperament to play scum.
It was my understanding that Backup Doctor only gets doctor powers after a real doctor dies, i.e. if there are no Doctors, Backup Doctors is useless. I admit I was thinking selfishly when I made my ordering choice; I would only have any powers on the night after a Doctor died, and only if I hadn't died first - admittedly not particularly likely, but possible, and apart from my first game I haven't lived very long on average. Let's just say that I figured my 1st choice was more useful to me and to town than Backup Doctor.
Going back to Gaz's Doctor discard - you say that if your first pick was scum you wouldn't put Doctor second. Well, to me it's entirely possible that you could, precisely so you could make that argument. Think about Q's great success despite his incriminating discard and first post in WW35. I don't consider the Doctor discard anything better than a null tell.
Jkaen's been talking mostly about meta, although it is Day 1 so it is forgivable. Still, I'm not enthused with his backing off from Lewwyn.
Tentative town vibe from zakalwe. His posts feel earnest to me, like how he as town posted in WW35 (edit: and here's two more from him).
Mostly I'm not liking Psillycyber's posting so far. His post against Adrien's inconsistent risk preferences reads like splitting hairs; it's not unreasonable to me for somebody to like a town/mafia lover pair but not be enthused about Hider. As well, the reasoning behind his vote on Gazglum is suspect; discarding Doctor would of course put Gaz under suspicion, but supposing he was town and had two power roles, putting Doctor first and discarding the second would lead to much the same situation. It's like Psilly isn't fully thinking through the implications of his logic. And I don't think anybody was 'hyping up' anonymous discard claims, IIRC Rowain said we might as well since it's Day 1 and Lewwyn and others agreed that it at least got people talking.
No strong leans on anybody else atm.
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
(July 6th, 2016, 07:52)Psillycyber Wrote: On novice: Zak asked a good question early on that nobody has followed up on yet: why take mafia godfather as 2nd choice? How do we know that it was novice's 2nd choice? Let's imagine that it was novice's 3rd choice (the only other way that it would show up as novice's public discard). If we assume that novice's 2nd choice (which he would have gotten in this scenario) was town, then why would novice's 1st choice have gotten thrown out if it was also town, only to give him a different town role? Can anyone think why Jabbz would throw out a town role for someone, only to give someone a different town role? I guess a bigger question here (which I don't expect Jabbz to be allowed to tell us) would be: was Jabbz throwing out 1st picks based solely on alignment #s, or also on balancing role strengths? If we assume that Jabbz was mainly balancing for alignment #s, then mafia*-mafia!-town or town-mafia*-mafia! make more sense as novice's order of picks, where mafia* = whatever novice really got, and mafia! = the mafia godfather that novice threw out. Although, now that I think about it, if we are assuming that novice was unlucky enough to get 2 mafia roles when he really wanted to play town, then town*-mafia!-mafia would make sense, where town* = what novice ended up getting. In that case, novice would have had no choice but to have a mafia role show up as his 2nd option. Actually, oddly enough, novice has not posted at all yet, so perhaps he will clear it all up when he gets in.
He is claiming its his 2nd choice and he got his first, but to answer your question, it could have been
Lover - town - mafia godfather
Since there wasn't another lover to match him up with his choice would void i assume and he would have got his 2nd
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
On and zak can you delete the giant footer on your posts please?
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
(July 6th, 2016, 10:41)Fenn Wrote: Jkaen's been talking mostly about meta, although it is Day 1 so it is forgivable. Still, I'm not enthused with his backing off from Lewwyn.
Based on his posts I have backed off attacking what I saw as his revenge vote, as he explained reasonably why he would put it on me (even if he is wrong). My vote hasn't shifted though and right now I think its the strongest tell (of a very weak field)
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
(July 6th, 2016, 06:28)Rowain Wrote: You OTOH do like playing scum and your ranking that you would prefer VT over Goon is harder to believe. Doesn't make a scum-tell but I can understand Jkaens reasoning.
I like playing werewolf, whether I'm scum or not. There's a bit of a difference. Playing scum is always difficult and stressful. Given the choice, this time I chose something less stressful. And really it wasn't a choice between VT and Goon since both of those roles were discarded.
I can understand Jkaen's reasoning, and I am slightly swayed by his clarifying on the order of thought versus how it appeared to me. I'm going to bed, I'm betting I'll wake up to double the posts to read and have new opinions about.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Posts: 8,244
Threads: 30
Joined: Jun 2004
Current discard claims:
1. Prometheus - Vanilla Townie; ??????
2. AdrienIer - Hider; 1 shot vig
3. Jkaen - Hider; Vanilla Townie
4. Lewwyn - Vanilla Townie; Mafia Goon
5. Meiz - One-shot Vigilante; Mafia Goon
6. Psillycyber - One-shot Vigilante; Vanilla Townie
7. Dp101 - Mafia Lover; Hider
8. Zakalwe - One-shot Governor; Mafia Doctor
9. Gazglum - Doctor; One-shot Vigilante
10. Rowain - Vanilla Townie; One-shot Governor
11. Fenn - Backup Doctor; Enabler
12. Novice - Mafia Godfather; Vanilla Townie
Posts: 13,563
Threads: 49
Joined: Oct 2009
(July 5th, 2016, 14:57)Psillycyber Wrote: Mafia Godfather is a pretty nice role to pass up What do you mean by this, Psilly?
(July 5th, 2016, 15:16)Dp101 Wrote: I also don't plan to post much on the first day unless some decent posts/cases appear. Day 1 generally devolves into pure meta pretty fast unless someone embarrasses themselves and gets lyched, which seems pointless to engage in. This particular variant is all about day 1 meta, and you are by your own account excited to see this game start, so why this attitude?
(July 6th, 2016, 03:59)Jkaen Wrote: I would say that not having played scum for a while I would have chosen mafia goon over a plain vanilla townie, and I am surprised Lewwyn didnt too Ambush or not, I think this is a valid observation. Not saying this to point the finger at Lewwyn, just saying that Jkaen is making valid points.
(July 6th, 2016, 06:06)AdrienIer Wrote: Oh yeah I missed that one I did too on first read, +1 town point to Adrien for synchronicity.*
*And minus -100 points to compensate for bias.
Rowain, my thoughts on the perfect role for you: Innocent Child.
I have to run.
|
