[LURKERS] Mr. Gradgrind's Review

[Fluffball]

I think Pindicator is basically a DZ at this point. Enough threat to probably hold a city or 3 and make the area a pain, but he's basically out of the game. BGN I seriously doubt will make a move until he sees some indication it's not a death warrant. Probably if Scooter loses a city and Dreylin declares on REM that will be the notification for BGN to attack via land. I wonder if he has power graphs on everyone, some big dips could also spur him into action.

It's looks like Sulla is reading REMs plans perfectly. Just hold that inner sea for a few turns and things are going to start looking better! Until the industrialism units arrive.

[Mardoc]

It's looks like Sulla is reading REMs plans perfectly. Just hold that inner sea for a few turns and things are going to start looking better! Until the industrialism units arrive.

Ok, yeah, I owe Sullla an apology. I still think it was a mistake for REM to press Scooter this way, but Sullla predicted it, which means that'll be at least a tactical victory for them. Possibly a strategic victory as well.

[Mardoc]

How bad is the trade between undamaged destroyer and 20% damaged battleship? I haven't calculated, but my rule of thumb suggests it's roughly even, but getting worse for the destroyer the more promotions each side has. Let's hope it doesn't come to that anyway.

Well just doing the basic math, a max-damaged Battleship will be at 32h vs a 30h Destroyer. Of course, if the Destroyer has coastal defense, it should come out ahead if neither are promoted. But yes, it gets worse quickly if the Battleship has promotions or defense bonus, not to mention the fact that you can't stack your Destroyers or else you'll get collateral'd.

Pretty sure this depends mostly on numbers + initiative, like most civ4 combat. If I have 9 destroyers to your 6 battleships, my first six attacks should be ~3-3, and my last three attacks should be able to clean up redlined units, giving a trade of 3 destroyers for 6 battleships. On the other hand, if I have nine battleships attacking six destroyers, it'll be 3 battleships lost to 6 destroyers, maybe better due to the collateral. Of course, that snowballs - the larger side has 6 remaining ships to tilt the next battle.

All numbers approximate - but I don't expect the error due to inaccurate numbers to matter nearly as much as logistics and tactics. A destroyer navy can totally defeat a battleship navy, if the destroyer side has more hammers/better tactics. All else equal, I think I would rather have battleships - but really, all else is never equal.

[The Black Sword]

I don't agree with REM switching to attacking Scooter now, I think that path leads to a drawn out dogpile. Either he attacks Scooter or Pindicator, don't chase two rabbits.

Now he was in a pseudo-war with Scooter anyway, and he knew that, hence his initial declaration. So if he was going to attack Pindicator the plan should have been to hold off Scooter and quickly murder Pindicator. Hence he's quite happy if he scares Scooter into sitting back and defending his own cities. If he didn't have the forces to do that, it was a mistake to go in originally IMO. Obviously the players have more information than me, but that's the only situation where I see attacking Scooter now as a good idea, trying to make up for poor judgement in attacking Pin.

[Commodore]

I'd default to trusting REM's judgement; he's been pretty consistent from game one here making smart strategic choices.

[Fluffball]

I don't agree with REM switching to attacking Scooter now, I think that path leads to a drawn out dogpile. Either he attacks Scooter or Pindicator, don't chase two rabbits.

Pindicator's not going anywhere, and Scooter is never going to end the war with REM unless REM suffers game changing losses. It's at least worth the shot on REMs part to force Scooter into a 10-turn ceasefire to regroup, if say REM took the inner sea and burned Haber.

Basically, he has no choice but to fight the world because the world doesn't want to concede yet.

Also the units for each theater aren't really conflicting, in this case it's navy vs. land forces.

[The Black Sword]

He had no choice in fighting scooter but Pindicator would have stayed peaceful, probably BGN too. I guess the question is when will his Pindicator invasion turn a profit? A nice overview shot of Pin's territory would help. My impression is that he's only really up 2 cities so far, 1 decent one with 10t of revolt to go and one minor one on the island. The rest either being undefendable or razed.

I don't think it really matters that he's using navy against one and land against the other, he still needs to decide where he wants to commit his hammers.

[Mardoc]

Scooter is never going to end the war with REM unless REM suffers game changing losses. It's at least worth the shot on REMs part to force Scooter into a 10-turn ceasefire to regroup, if say REM took the inner sea and burned Haber.

Yes, but Scooter being at war can mean all sorts of things. I feel like REM could have tempted Scooter to try to catch up in tech instead of in soldier-count, and intimidated him into keeping his military home. Or mostly home - couldn't have prevented things like scooter garrisoning Pin's exposed cities - but playing a minor role instead of a major one.

Also the units for each theater aren't really conflicting, in this case it's navy vs. land forces.

True. The reinforcements, on the other hand? Pressing Scooter will lead to casualties. Maybe some razed German cities in addition to lost REM units, but REM will lose units. He's got to maintain a navy, or else Scooter will return the favor. If he loses his current navy, then he's got to build a new one instead of building tanks for Pindicator.

[Fluffball]

All good points, which is why this is interesting.

I think this conflict even more than the Dreylin 2v1 is going to be the deciding factor of the game. It has the potential to be much larger than the Dreylin conflict because the entire world is the battlefield. REM has played this game close to perfect, it will be interesting to see if he can Blitzkrieg out a win here in about 10 turns or if a 4v1 starts to wear him down.

[MJW (ya that one)]

If Scooter signs peace with REM before someone else DoWs him I think REM wins.