WW #43 - The Asha'man

[Jkaen]

Assuming he doesn't BS us I would also like Jkaen to post what he and Adrien talked about in Masonthread and how Adrien tread the game.

He didnt voice any suspicions after he reaffirmed in the QT he still fancied Psi, so no last words to tell unfortunately

Other than that just have stuff from very early day 1

Yeah I'm leaning towards thinking that Gaz is a cop and that scum are hiding behind the weak discards (1-shot vig as well as vanilla). Fenn is also a maybe.

FWIW I like Zak's first post. It needs to be verified with good later posts of course.

What do you think Rowain chose ? Tourist ?

Later on I said i thought his Psi case wasnt strong

It's not. But I still hadn't put down a vote and I have a "reacting like a normal player would react" feel from Psi. Attacking Gazglum for doctor, claiming a vanilla discard then saying it's pointless is a little bland.

I realize that was unclear. I mean I get a "trying to react like a normal player would react" feel.

Other than that its generic chatting really

[Gazglum]

Ok, I've re-read, and my top suspects are Prometheus and Rowain. DP101 said he would need more info before he could start scum-hunting in earnest. I think that's fine, especially for Day 1 on your first game, but I would like to see more earnestness as of now.

I'll get to Rowain, but first:

PROMETHEUS
His first post:

Hi everyone. Sorry I didn't post earlier, I was caught up preparing for the coming semester.

So just to make sure I'm following what has happened so far, almost half of us have claimed their second discard at the time I'm writing this post, and no serious accusations have been made.

Taking anonymous and revealed discards together, Hider has shown up three times. For a role that has a one in 54 chance of being drawn, that seems mildly suspicious to me. Not enough to cast a vote over it, though.

I do, however, find Gaz and Fenn discarding Doctor and Backup Doctor INCREDIBLY suspicious. Both are highly beneficial to Town. Backup Doctor, I feel, is an even more significant discard than Doctor, because it had half the probability of being drawn than a regular Doctor, according to the list in the original post.

Thus, from a strategic standpoint, a backup doctor is more valuable to town than any other role except doctor. So, Fenn has my vote.

This isn't exactly scummy, but it is a bit all over the place. The Hider maths is pointless, we know they were discarded, so it is meaningless to say it 'looks suspicious'. His whole line about backup doctors I still never fully understood. The hider thing grates a bit, because later on he does more maths and probability talk, which suggests he likes thinking about it, which makes it seem odder he would get it wrong here.

Then we have what is Prometheus' ONLY real call of the whole day:

Psilly reads as somewhat anti-town to my limited experience, and most of the other players appear to agree. So, Psillycyber .

We'll have to disagree on Doctor's importance Prometheus. And if somebody given Doctor could discard it in good conscience, thinking that somebody else would pick Doctor, why couldn't I do the same? I'm not convinced there's an advantage to Town in having a Doctor + Backup Doc as opposed to a Doctor and any moderately good role that is active from the start.

Yeah, I get what you're saying Fenn. I was probably basing my suspicions on personal preference.

That is a weak vote, hiding behind other people's opinions. He is also jumping straight onto the first big train of the day, without adding any explanation as to why.

On being asked, he says:

On Psilly, I think he's tunneling on Lewwyn, which, while not inherently scummy, is definitely not in our best interest to root out scum. By tunneling on anyone, he's unable to see evidence on anyone except the person he's focused on. Take a look at how WW35 ended. Jabbz tunneled on Zak, and cost town the win. Granted, that was on the last day. But Psilly could cause some real damage to our chances of winning if he is given the chance.

There is also the very real possibility that Psilly is one of the Dread Lords, and is focusing on Lewwyn to try and make town mislynch.

As everyone said, it was a reach to say Psilly was 'tunnelling' at this stage. But then his logic gets worse. He seems to be saying that:

- Psilly may or may not be scum, but he is anti-town
- Psilyl is tunnelling
- when you get to LYLO, tunnelling can lose you the game
- Therefore, we have to get rid of Psilly NOW, because he is tunnelling on Lewwyn NOW, therefore he will be do it in the endgame.

This is so scummy. 'Psilly could cause real damage'. This looks like setting it up so that once Psilly flips town, Prometheus can say, 'oh it's sad, but it was still the right thing to do for the good of the town'.

On pushback he says:

I don't see Psilly as tunneling on Lewwyn, just making a weak case on him. It would have to be made with more conviction to qualify as tunneling. -1 town point to Prometheus for lack of synchronicity.

Tunneling may have been the wrong word to use. He's very focused on Lewwyn, to the point where he seems unable to see other possibilities. Though, as I said in my earlier post, it could also be that he is trying to force a mislynch.

I do agree, though, that it is a very weak case.

Then, unfortunately, he has to leave. So he doesn't have to update his weak case. Still, this is a very poor Day 1. His only lean is that Psilly is a bit anti-town.

Since then, he has come back and been able to re-read and play. So you would think he would NOW have some feelings about the state of play. But no - everything he has spoken about since the lynch has been better. Prometheus has still not made any call on anybody';s guilt or innocence.

The onyl caveat is that Prometheus is on his first game, and that is a bloody hard place to be. So I am willing to have a lot of sympathy, and would be keen to see you bounce back today Prometheus. But right now,

Prometheus.

[Gazglum]

On ROWAIN

I mentioned the Meiz/Adrien/serial killer bit before, that seems quite off. Other than that, I don't have a huge amount to go on, except his Night 1 posts, which I think are not good at all. I believe his annoyance against Jabbz, but, as Jkaen says, this is bad:

In short Barring any results from cops/trackers etc my final vote for D2 will be on Adrien or Jkaen.

I kind of did the same thing, so I guess I can't really give many scum points. BUt knowing that they are both town, that is certainly not a great mark for Rowain.

I think Jkaen's posts against Rowain were really good and on point:

Right my vote is Rowain

1. weird ordering of roles i always felt was off
2. claims convenient power that stops anybody checking him out
3. claims last night he will focus on just me or adrien (both village) unless a seer result says otherwise, not only is he wrong thats massively anti town

Especially this one, a good pickup:

Well into my theory on scum numbers he posted this

My town-leans so far: zakalwe and Jkaen: Both look like their town-selfs to me and I do believe that zak would rather play town instead of scum this game.

He then voted for DP to help my meta based theories

Dp101 to help Jkaen.

But suddenly those theories are so bad that he is going to lock his vote on me?

Isnt this basically using pure meta same as I am guilty of?

Reason for Adrien is his passing on Hider and 1-shot-vig while at the same time he criticized Dp101 for discarding Mafia Lover

Plus this seems odd?

DP101 is new As far as I remember so I hesitate to lynch him on D1.

Dp101 to help Jkaen.

Decided it was safe to place your vote there now since it wasnt getting traction?

Rowain then responds weirdly. A pro-player should knwo that Jkaen has a VERY strong claim to being town from the Mason thing. The only way he is not, is if someone else chimes up. But does Rowain ask 'is anyone willing to countercliam Mason?' No, he just doubledowns on Jkaen being scummy, because there might not be another mason.

That is literally true, but Rowain knows game theory, and so he knows that Jkaen would NOT have claimed that role as scum. So this whole post feels like a constructed attack, made because he is under high pressure from Jkaen, and he has lost both of his own 'targets'. A town Rowain should take a step back here adn reevaluate the board, now that he knows he was totally wrong. This reads like Scum Rowain panicking a bit and turning on the aggression to buy time:

so I don't really think I can trust their motivation.

Adrien was a mason, hence there must be another mason, unless anybody else comes forward I am a guaranteed villager

1) Why must there be another Mason just because Adrien was one? There is no proof of that. Going from the setup thread
the only thing that is stated there is:
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.

Given that he would have been lynched has Jabbz counted right either you lie or you 2 are full blown idiots.

2) Why wouldn't he got nightkilled? Scum has often nk-ed the second suspect to throw town into chaos and don't leave tracks.

Plus, he thinks it is likely for Adrien to have been a nightkill target? Bullshit. He also thinks Jkaen should have blown his cover to save Adrien, when it looked like Adrien was perfectly safe until I did a last second swtich.

Forget about the role discards, this is just good posting from Jkaen adn really bad posting from Rowain.

Rowain then wants to use his perceived Authority to get us all to tell him our roles. Could that be because scum had their kill blocked last night and want to know why?

[Gazglum]

Gah, mistake:

Since then, he has come back and been able to re-read and play. So you would think he would NOW have some feelings about the state of play. But no - everything he has spoken about since the lynch has been better. Prometheus has still not made any call on anybody';s guilt or innocence.

By which of course I mean 'Meta'

[Lewwyn]

I agree on Prometheus.

But I agree more about this:

Forget about the role discards, this is just good posting from Jkaen adn really bad posting from Rowain.

The thing that really bothers me is that Rowain is verging on the, "go on kill me, I dare you" tangent and I can't tell if its scummy or if its townie because Rowain has a history of getting frustrated as town and has even voted to lynch himself as town... and succeeded. So now I'm wondering if that's that or if scum Rowain is channeling that same energy.

[Meiz]

town-Rowain also has a habit of pointing out why a person is not a 100% villager, even if everything points to that direction.

[Gazglum]

town-Rowain also has a habit of pointing out why a person is not a 100% villager, even if everything points to that direction.

So give us the gut feeling Meiz, do you think Rowain is town or scum?

[Meiz]

I'd still say confident-town, reminds me a lot of his previous town games.

[Gazglum]

I'm glad you said that my friend. I'm glad we got it on paper .

Who would be your suggestions for the presumed 3 scum, in that case?

[Meiz]

I'd still go with the bottom of my list at #384. Big part is process of elimination. Novice, lewwyn, dp101, prometheus. Interesting to see how serious Lewwyn is with his novice vote.