WW #43 - The Asha'man

[Dp101]

Tally as of post 460:

Lynch votes
3 votes: novice (Meiz, Lewwyn, Fenn)
2 votes: Prometheus (Gazglum, zakalwe)
1 votes: Rowain (Jkaen)
1 votes: Fenn (novice)

Voting history:

Rowain

novice

Fenn

novice

Fenn

Prometheus

Prometheus

Prometheus

Dp101

Fenn

Fenn

novice

Green votes
No votes.

[Lewwyn]

I didn't vote Prometheus earlier because I wanted to see his response to Gazglum, but there hasn't been any response. I don't like novice's vote on Fenn, but I really don't like Prometheus's silence.

[Prometheus1998_]

I didn't vote Prometheus earlier because I wanted to see his response to Gazglum, but there hasn't been any response. I don't like novice's vote on Fenn, but I really don't like Prometheus's silence.

Ok, I've re-read, and my top suspects are Prometheus and Rowain. DP101 said he would need more info before he could start scum-hunting in earnest. I think that's fine, especially for Day 1 on your first game, but I would like to see more earnestness as of now.

I'll get to Rowain, but first:

PROMETHEUS
His first post:

Hi everyone. Sorry I didn't post earlier, I was caught up preparing for the coming semester.

So just to make sure I'm following what has happened so far, almost half of us have claimed their second discard at the time I'm writing this post, and no serious accusations have been made.

Taking anonymous and revealed discards together, Hider has shown up three times. For a role that has a one in 54 chance of being drawn, that seems mildly suspicious to me. Not enough to cast a vote over it, though.

I do, however, find Gaz and Fenn discarding Doctor and Backup Doctor INCREDIBLY suspicious. Both are highly beneficial to Town. Backup Doctor, I feel, is an even more significant discard than Doctor, because it had half the probability of being drawn than a regular Doctor, according to the list in the original post.

Thus, from a strategic standpoint, a backup doctor is more valuable to town than any other role except doctor. So, Fenn has my vote.

This isn't exactly scummy, but it is a bit all over the place. The Hider maths is pointless, we know they were discarded, so it is meaningless to say it 'looks suspicious'. His whole line about backup doctors I still never fully understood. The hider thing grates a bit, because later on he does more maths and probability talk, which suggests he likes thinking about it, which makes it seem odder he would get it wrong here.

Actually, what I found suspicious is that, for a role with a 5% chance of coming up in anyone's role PM, Dp would say his anonymous discard is that role, when two people are already CONFIRMED to have discarded it. The odds of Dp telling the truth are NOT in his favor.

Then we have what is Prometheus' ONLY real call of the whole day:

Psilly reads as somewhat anti-town to my limited experience, and most of the other players appear to agree. So, Psillycyber .

We'll have to disagree on Doctor's importance Prometheus. And if somebody given Doctor could discard it in good conscience, thinking that somebody else would pick Doctor, why couldn't I do the same? I'm not convinced there's an advantage to Town in having a Doctor + Backup Doc as opposed to a Doctor and any moderately good role that is active from the start.

Yeah, I get what you're saying Fenn. I was probably basing my suspicions on personal preference.

That is a weak vote, hiding behind other people's opinions. He is also jumping straight onto the first big train of the day, without adding any explanation as to why.

On being asked, he says:

On Psilly, I think he's tunneling on Lewwyn, which, while not inherently scummy, is definitely not in our best interest to root out scum. By tunneling on anyone, he's unable to see evidence on anyone except the person he's focused on. Take a look at how WW35 ended. Jabbz tunneled on Zak, and cost town the win. Granted, that was on the last day. But Psilly could cause some real damage to our chances of winning if he is given the chance.

There is also the very real possibility that Psilly is one of the Dread Lords, and is focusing on Lewwyn to try and make town mislynch.

As everyone said, it was a reach to say Psilly was 'tunnelling' at this stage. But then his logic gets worse. He seems to be saying that:

- Psilly may or may not be scum, but he is anti-town
- Psilyl is tunnelling
- when you get to LYLO, tunnelling can lose you the game
- Therefore, we have to get rid of Psilly NOW, because he is tunnelling on Lewwyn NOW, therefore he will be do it in the endgame.

This is so scummy. 'Psilly could cause real damage'. This looks like setting it up so that once Psilly flips town, Prometheus can say, 'oh it's sad, but it was still the right thing to do for the good of the town'.

On pushback he says:

I don't see Psilly as tunneling on Lewwyn, just making a weak case on him. It would have to be made with more conviction to qualify as tunneling. -1 town point to Prometheus for lack of synchronicity.

Tunneling may have been the wrong word to use. He's very focused on Lewwyn, to the point where he seems unable to see other possibilities. Though, as I said in my earlier post, it could also be that he is trying to force a mislynch.

I do agree, though, that it is a very weak case.

Then, unfortunately, he has to leave. So he doesn't have to update his weak case. Still, this is a very poor Day 1. His only lean is that Psilly is a bit anti-town.

Upon reading Psilly's responses when I got back, I saw that my suspicions for him were unfounded. However, by then, it was too late.

Since then, he has come back and been able to re-read and play. So you would think he would NOW have some feelings about the state of play. But no - everything he has spoken about since the lynch has been better. Prometheus has still not made any call on anybody';s guilt or innocence.

The onyl caveat is that Prometheus is on his first game, and that is a bloody hard place to be. So I am willing to have a lot of sympathy, and would be keen to see you bounce back today Prometheus. But right now,

Prometheus.

I hesitate to make any calls right now, after my suspicions proved so totally wrong last time. But, since you insist on me making my thoughts known:

I think that scum has a strongarm, meaning the arguments about why scum didn't kill last night are invalidated. The only role in the list Jabbz posted at the start of the game that is GUARANTEED to be able to survive a strongarm attack is the mafia-immune serial killer. Thus, either Fenn is lying about his role (if scum targeted him/her) or there exists the possibility for three kills in one night (Vig!Fenn, the Unknown SK, and the Dread Lords). Unfortunately, this is impossible to prove at this time, because last night, there was only one kill.

In addition to my thoughts about Adrien's weird death, I get the strong feeling that Jkaen is town, because Adrien left enough hints while still alive that it is the only possibility that makes sense. I am unsure about Fenn and Meiz. I am slightly suspicious of Fenn because I don't like his reasoning for shooting Adrien if Fenn truly is town-aligned. Assuming Fenn is telling the truth, surely he knew that, if Adrien WAS scum, killing the ONLY DECENT LEAD TOWN HAD during the night, instead of attempting to eliminate another potential suspect, would hurt town more than help, in terms of rooting out scum. Fenn's stated reason for shooting AdrienIer reads to me like an SK trying to justify their kill to the town.

Meiz, I suspect is a serial killer because if Meiz is an SK, Adrien's death WAS NOT IN ANY WAY RANDOM, and in fact makes a lot of sense.

Staying on Meiz for now, he looks more SK-y than scummy, but a non-town lynch on D1 is always welcome

If Meiz is the SK, Adrien had the potential to be a real threat, as he already suspected Meiz. Please note that, within a few hours of Adrien's post, Meiz had changed his/her vote to AdrienIer, and stayed there until the end of the day. At the end of that night phase, after the attempt to get Adrien lynched failed, the threat to Meiz died anyway.

[Lewwyn]

I think that scum has a strongarm, meaning the arguments about why scum didn't kill last night are invalidated. The only role in the list Jabbz posted at the start of the game that is GUARANTEED to be able to survive a strongarm attack is the mafia-immune serial killer. Thus, either Fenn is lying about his role (if scum targeted him/her) or there exists the possibility for three kills in one night (Vig!Fenn, the Unknown SK, and the Dread Lords). Unfortunately, this is impossible to prove at this time, because last night, there was only one kill.

In addition to my thoughts about Adrien's weird death, I get the strong feeling that Jkaen is town, because Adrien left enough hints while still alive that it is the only possibility that makes sense. I am unsure about Fenn and Meiz. I am slightly suspicious of Fenn because I don't like his reasoning for shooting Adrien if Fenn truly is town-aligned. Assuming Fenn is telling the truth, surely he knew that, if Adrien WAS scum, killing the ONLY DECENT LEAD TOWN HAD during the night, instead of attempting to eliminate another potential suspect, would hurt town more than help, in terms of rooting out scum. Fenn's stated reason for shooting AdrienIer reads to me like an SK trying to justify their kill to the town.

Meiz, I suspect is a serial killer because if Meiz is an SK, Adrien's death WAS NOT IN ANY WAY RANDOM, and in fact makes a lot of sense.

Staying on Meiz for now, he looks more SK-y than scummy, but a non-town lynch on D1 is always welcome

If Meiz is the SK, Adrien had the potential to be a real threat, as he already suspected Meiz. Please note that, within a few hours of Adrien's post, Meiz had changed his/her vote to AdrienIer, and stayed there until the end of the day. At the end of that night phase, after the attempt to get Adrien lynched failed, the threat to Meiz died anyway.

Wow. That is some straight up confusing paranoia.

Fenn claims the kill and the logic for Fenn to kill Adrien is that it would hurt the towns ability to scumhunt, which he would want as SK, but Meiz is actually the SK and also tried to kill Adrien at the same time? Are you sure you didn't mean to vote for Fenn?

[Meiz]

That sounds like a scum who is having really hard time finding reasons for voting people he knows are innocent.

As a side note, sorry Lewwyn but I'm currently reading you bussing your partners Prometheus & novice. But better not to get too ahead of myself here

[Prometheus1998_]

I think that scum has a strongarm, meaning the arguments about why scum didn't kill last night are invalidated. The only role in the list Jabbz posted at the start of the game that is GUARANTEED to be able to survive a strongarm attack is the mafia-immune serial killer. Thus, either Fenn is lying about his role (if scum targeted him/her) or there exists the possibility for three kills in one night (Vig!Fenn, the Unknown SK, and the Dread Lords). Unfortunately, this is impossible to prove at this time, because last night, there was only one kill.

In addition to my thoughts about Adrien's weird death, I get the strong feeling that Jkaen is town, because Adrien left enough hints while still alive that it is the only possibility that makes sense. I am unsure about Fenn and Meiz. I am slightly suspicious of Fenn because I don't like his reasoning for shooting Adrien if Fenn truly is town-aligned. Assuming Fenn is telling the truth, surely he knew that, if Adrien WAS scum, killing the ONLY DECENT LEAD TOWN HAD during the night, instead of attempting to eliminate another potential suspect, would hurt town more than help, in terms of rooting out scum. Fenn's stated reason for shooting AdrienIer reads to me like an SK trying to justify their kill to the town.

Meiz, I suspect is a serial killer because if Meiz is an SK, Adrien's death WAS NOT IN ANY WAY RANDOM, and in fact makes a lot of sense.

Staying on Meiz for now, he looks more SK-y than scummy, but a non-town lynch on D1 is always welcome

If Meiz is the SK, Adrien had the potential to be a real threat, as he already suspected Meiz. Please note that, within a few hours of Adrien's post, Meiz had changed his/her vote to AdrienIer, and stayed there until the end of the day. At the end of that night phase, after the attempt to get Adrien lynched failed, the threat to Meiz died anyway.

Wow. That is some straight up confusing paranoia.

Fenn claims the kill and the logic for Fenn to kill Adrien is that it would hurt the towns ability to scumhunt, which he would want as SK, but Meiz is actually the SK and also tried to kill Adrien at the same time? Are you sure you didn't mean to vote for Fenn?

I'm saying both are possibilities. Fenn doesn't have to be a serial killer to be attempting to muddy the waters. He could well be a member of the scum team. The end result would benefit Fenn just as much, regardless of whether Fenn is SK or scum. Meiz, however, I could easily see as an SK, because Adrien was a real threat to SK!Meiz.

[novice]

You aren't even trying to say that I'm an SK. You're claiming that, after a night in which only one person died, and after Rowain argued that Adrien could very well have been the mafia's target, the Mafia that I'm supposedly part of decided to claim Vigilante while under very little pressure because...?

How do you know the mafia was under very little pressure?

[Lewwyn]

As a side note, sorry Lewwyn but I'm currently reading you bussing your partners Prometheus & novice. But better not to get too ahead of myself here

If I start voting for you am I bussing you too?

The bias is strong.

[novice]

Lol novice. You think I'd claim Vigilante as scum? What possible motivation could there be? You can't possibly believe that. You even said the exact opposite earlier today:

There is no way in 9 hells that the mafia would pick the guy who was likely to hang the next day. That was a vig shot.

Agreed. Everybody was declaring their intention of voting Adrien on day two.

My apologies if the town cred you've been promised is not materializing.
The motivation for claiming vigilante as scum is clear, it's a very convenient safe claim.

[Prometheus1998_]

Wow. That is some straight up confusing paranoia.

It may well be that I'm just seeing the absolute WORST possible situations here. Regardless, that is what I get out of re-reading the thread at the moment.