WW #43 - The Asha'man

[Lewwyn]

I know town lewwyn likes to build up his own cases or if he is following others lead, he makes sure to dig deeper in to the case and bury his target. Neither is happening here.

Well this is wrong. This is exactly what I did with my push on novice in post 375. I took your case, I went deeper, and then I pushed for more information from novice. It is patently NOT nonexistent.

I dislike novice's vote on Fenn because I think that Fenn's claim as a vig killing Adrien makes sense (I could also see SK), but doesn't make sense as part of a scum team. Didn't feel like I needed to say that.

It's probably a very good thing that Adrien was killed because I would have gone whole hog after him today if he was still alive.

Earlier you opened the door to BW on Prometheus, but found Rowain more interesting. However that subject is completely dropped when it doesn't gain traction. No effort whatsoever to dig evidence he'd be the scum. I don't think you believed in that push at all to begin with. I actually don't think you have conviction for any of your cases.

I opened the door to a BW on Prometheus? You mean when I said:

I agree on Prometheus.

in response to Gazglum? Yeah I said I agree with the idea that prometheus hasn't provided any solid cases. His suspicions mostly revolve around meta and he hasn't done anything to really dissuade me of that. I didn't vote for him at that moment because I was still voting for novice.

I also didn't vote for Rowain because other people were scummier. IE: my vote stayed on novice. Why aren't you voting for me Meiz? Maybe because you think novice is scummier? Tat's getting a bit hypocritical isn't it? You are allowed to suspect me but not vote for me, but I'm not allowed to suspect other people and vote for someone else?

This:

I'd still go with the bottom of my list at #384. Big part is process of elimination. Novice, lewwyn, dp101, prometheus. Interesting to see how serious Lewwyn is with his novice vote.

Seems like a threat. Basically you refuse to take any of my votes seriously and you are trying to get me to keep my vote on novice by implying I'm SCUMMIER if I don't keep voting for him.

I feel pretty spoiled for choice at the moment. Novice, Prometheus, at the top of the list, Rowain and you not far behind. I'm just watching what everyone is doing and yeah I don't have huge amounts of conviction in my cases. But I am exploring them. You attacking me for it is pretty weak sauce.

[Meiz]

I know town lewwyn likes to build up his own cases or if he is following others lead, he makes sure to dig deeper in to the case and bury his target. Neither is happening here.

Well this is wrong. This is exactly what I did with my push on novice in post 375. I took your case, I went deeper, and then I pushed for more information from novice. It is patently NOT nonexistent.

I dislike novice's vote on Fenn because I think that Fenn's claim as a vig killing Adrien makes sense (I could also see SK), but doesn't make sense as part of a scum team. Didn't feel like I needed to say that.

That's nitpicking. I did acknowledge your push, but it was very mild (also verified later by your move to Promethous). You see your suspect pushing a guy you think could be town, and decide to move your vote and not continue to push. "Didn't feel the need to comment" ? That's definitely not the town-Lewwyn I know.

Btw. I'm not trying to blackmail you to vote novice. But again like I said, there's no reason why you couldn't be pushing your other suspects besides the vote, like I think town-Lewwyn would do.

It's probably a very good thing that Adrien was killed because I would have gone whole hog after him today if he was still alive.

Earlier you opened the door to BW on Prometheus, but found Rowain more interesting. However that subject is completely dropped when it doesn't gain traction. No effort whatsoever to dig evidence he'd be the scum. I don't think you believed in that push at all to begin with. I actually don't think you have conviction for any of your cases.

I opened the door to a BW on Prometheus? You mean when I said:

I agree on Prometheus.

in response to Gazglum? Yeah I said I agree with the idea that prometheus hasn't provided any solid cases. His suspicions mostly revolve around meta and he hasn't done anything to really dissuade me of that. I didn't vote for him at that moment because I was still voting for novice.

I also didn't vote for Rowain because other people were scummier. IE: my vote stayed on novice. Why aren't you voting for me Meiz? Maybe because you think novice is scummier? Tat's getting a bit hypocritical isn't it? You are allowed to suspect me but not vote for me, but I'm not allowed to suspect other people and vote for someone else?

This:

I'd still go with the bottom of my list at #384. Big part is process of elimination. Novice, lewwyn, dp101, prometheus. Interesting to see how serious Lewwyn is with his novice vote.

Seems like a threat. Basically you refuse to take any of my votes seriously and you are trying to get me to keep my vote on novice by implying I'm SCUMMIER if I don't keep voting for him.

I feel pretty spoiled for choice at the moment. Novice, Prometheus, at the top of the list, Rowain and you not far behind. I'm just watching what everyone is doing and yeah I don't have huge amounts of conviction in my cases. But I am exploring them. You attacking me for it is pretty weak sauce.

For the record "opened the door for BW" was not an accusation against you, just an observation. The difference between us is that while there is only one guy we can vote for, it's not stopping me to comment the other suspects. Again you state Rowain as your suspect but are not doing anything to convince anyone on that. That is very uncharacteristic for town-Lewwyn.

[Rowain]

I am unwilling to claim my role, as it would make me an immediate target for the night phase.

Why do you believe that being a roleblocker makes you an immediate night-target?

[novice]

Actually, what I found suspicious is that, for a role with a 5% chance of coming up in anyone's role PM, Dp would say his anonymous discard is that role, when two people are already CONFIRMED to have discarded it. The odds of Dp telling the truth are NOT in his favor.

That's not how probability works.

I think that scum has a strongarm

Oddly specific assumption.

Before requests to know my night action comes in, I'll tell you now. Last night, I blocked AdrienIer, as per his request. I wanted to see what happened. In hindsight, it's obvious why he wanted to be blocked: he had no active powers.

Right, so Prometheus killed Adrien and Fenn is taking "credit".

I'm taking the kids to the swimming hall, will be offline for some hours.

[Gazglum]

MOrning!

So Gazglum if you area villager be so kind and tell us your real reasoning behind your actions/talks/reads else I will be forced to vote you which might lead to a meltdown between us, my death and a village loss.

Oh Rowain, this is bad stuff. I'm sorry if you are town, but this reads to me exactly like you are trying to prod me into a fight with you, or scare me off. Neither is going to happen. You are not the top of my list, but all I keep asking you is to scumhunt for some scum.

I mean: 'I will be forced to vote for you'. Meaning that you don't think I'm scum, but you would do so anyway? You're trying to manufacture a reason to vote for me, without actually pointing to anything scummy in my posts. If I'm scum, vote for me and tell me why. If I'm not, put a case on someone else.

'Tell us your real reasoning' is a slur too. I have been totally open and honest with my reasoning. I have no secrets to impart on Adrien's death. If you are town, then we are just genuinely disagreeing as to scum-tactics, and that is not a reason to vote someone.

The only additional insight into my psychology I can make is that Adrien made his 'give me a chance' post after I had already posted that I thought him scum. So I guess his final post made less impact on me than it otherwise might have.

[Gazglum]

I would like to quote one of my favourite movies here: The Usual Suspects

There's no mystery to the street, no arch criminal behind it all. If you got a dead body and you think his brother did it, you're gonna find out you're right.

I believe this applies to Werewolf as well (with the caveat that Brick is not playing). Scum play it safe, and they adapt to circumstances as best they can. Keep It Simple Stupid, and you will usually find you are right.

SO what is simple?

Could scum have nightkilled the leading prime suspect? Yes, but why would they? That would be complicated.

If a mason turned up dead, would a scum take a massive gamble and claim to be his brother, hoping that nobody would counterclaim and spell instant death to him? Yes he might, but why would he?

If scum DID kill Adrien, would one of them then pipe up out of nowhere that he HAD done it, but as a town aligned vigilante? Sure, that could happen. But why would it? Only if you were a serial killer looking for cover, and you're going to be found out that way eventually anyway.

By far, by FAR, the most likely explanation for today is this:

Fenn is a town aligned vigilante who took a shot at the scummiest-seeming player. The scum went for one of the towniest seeming strong players, as scum almost always do, and they were blocked.

Rowain, Prometheus and now Novice are the ones who don't want to believe this. They have been creating overcomplicated thought experiments for what went down. They have flushed Occam's razor down the toilet, because as Rowain says 'we don't want to make a mistake'. Overcomplicating your theories is exactly how town makes mistakes, and that is not how a good town player acts.

[Gazglum]

Fenn knocks you on the head perfectly here Novice:

You aren't even trying to say that I'm an SK. You're claiming that, after a night in which only one person died, and after Rowain argued that Adrien could very well have been the mafia's target, the Mafia that I'm supposedly part of decided to claim Vigilante while under very little pressure because...?

I agree. Your push on Fenn has rocketed you up into the scum-leans for me Novice. And since I think Prometheus is scum, it feels like a hail mary ploy to try and shift the momentum.

[Gazglum]

I think that scum has a strongarm, meaning the arguments about why scum didn't kill last night are invalidated. The only role in the list Jabbz posted at the start of the game that is GUARANTEED to be able to survive a strongarm attack is the mafia-immune serial killer. Thus, either Fenn is lying about his role (if scum targeted him/her) or there exists the possibility for three kills in one night (Vig!Fenn, the Unknown SK, and the Dread Lords). Unfortunately, this is impossible to prove at this time, because last night, there was only one kill.

In addition to my thoughts about Adrien's weird death, I get the strong feeling that Jkaen is town, because Adrien left enough hints while still alive that it is the only possibility that makes sense. I am unsure about Fenn and Meiz. I am slightly suspicious of Fenn because I don't like his reasoning for shooting Adrien if Fenn truly is town-aligned. Assuming Fenn is telling the truth, surely he knew that, if Adrien WAS scum, killing the ONLY DECENT LEAD TOWN HAD during the night, instead of attempting to eliminate another potential suspect, would hurt town more than help, in terms of rooting out scum. Fenn's stated reason for shooting AdrienIer reads to me like an SK trying to justify their kill to the town.

Meiz, I suspect is a serial killer because if Meiz is an SK, Adrien's death WAS NOT IN ANY WAY RANDOM, and in fact makes a lot of sense.

Meiz being a serial killer and scum not doing anything does not make a lot of sense.

I admire the effort in this post Prometheus. I hope you are enjoying the game, and I hope whatever your alignment you are not feeling bad about how it is going. It is a pleasure to play with you, and if you are town, I really am terribly sorry and we can laugh about it in the thread after.

But to summarise your play so far:

Day 1, you keep your head very low and make only one opportunistic attack that you can't back up logically.

Night 1 you make no comment on suspects or your take on the game.

Day 2 I make a fairly sustained attack on you. Your response is to just drop off the radar completely. You read it - you make one very short, half hearted, response. But otherwise there is just radio silence. You don't even protest your innocence. That reads to me like a first-time mafia who feels like the game is up. I've been there, buddy.

After 24 hours of nothing, you come out with a big post, postulating a very complicated explanation that tries to draw attention away from all other leading suspects. You claim to not want to give your power because it would be Dangerous, then when you do give your power, it's really not that big a deal.

This seems to me like you didn't know how to respond to the attack, you went quiet, then your scum-buddies have coached you in the wolf thread to make a big post. SOmething like 'if you just show you're engaged, we might be able to shift the attention off you and onto Fenn/whoever". You vote Meiz, but you are opening yourself up to pivot onto Fenn, who other players (town or not) are currently pressuring. You make no comment on Rowain at all.

This post feels coached, out of character with your previous posts, and the logic in it doesn't hold up.

So I am still voting you.

[Gazglum]

Actually, what I found suspicious is that, for a role with a 5% chance of coming up in anyone's role PM, Dp would say his anonymous discard is that role, when two people are already CONFIRMED to have discarded it. The odds of Dp telling the truth are NOT in his favor.

And as others have said perhaps, the odds of anyone claiming any specific power role is unlikely. Other people having been confirmed to discard hider doesn't effect the odds that DP had it. In fact, I would think that a mafia would be psychologically less likely to make up another Hider for precisely this reason, it 'feels' wrong, even though it is actually as plausible as anything else.

[Rowain]

What do you make out of Prometheus claim and this part:

I am unwilling to claim my role, as it would make me an immediate target for the night phase.

Why do you believe that being a roleblocker makes you an immediate night-target?

Further:

The scum went for one of the towniest seeming strong players, as scum almost always do, and they were blocked.

If you are sure that scum did not attack Adrien then why are you against role-claiming?
Yes maybe scum got doctor-blocked then role and action claiming would hint us to 2 townies.
Maybe scum-killer or target were jailed then it would give us another lead.

But ok nobody claims anything except if under the gallow so be it.