WW #43 - The Asha'man

[Gazglum]

@Yep Gaz good thing you didn't even comment on my bigger post above

What should I say? It's crap. After three days of intensive discussion, the best you can do is probablistic theories about who might be scum. Not even an attempt to gauge the way they have actually played the game.

The one thing I will agree with is your frustrated tone about balance. I suspect this game has not been very well balanced for power roles, but we will have to wait and see.

[Gazglum]

Finally, even if DP was lying about his role, Fenn can shoot him dead tomorrow. The chances of scum having a way out of that are so small that I do not think it is worth lynching DP today.

How the hell do you come to that conclusion?

Sorry, meant tonight.

DP can't be bulletproof scum. They would need another scum-doctor or a second roleblocker. It's just highly unlikely, and it wouldn't PROVE DP's innocence if he survived, but it would be a huge town tell. What is the downside of it? Why waste the lynch?

[Rowain]

You have played it as if you are a cop or a doctor - avoiding strong reads, avoiding antagonising anybody, keeping yourself in the middle of the pack. That is the behaviour of someone who wants to avoid scum night-attention, not draw it.

Avoiding antagonizing???? I had to defend against idiotic attacks becasue I have VT before governor since the start. Attacks from someone who is so smart that he thinks not claiming Mason while one of them is near the gallows is good play. You too brought up this idiotic discard order everytime you tried to lynch me.
Then I got shit because I said Adrien was a goodNK-ttarget and again I had nothing else todo then defend. Zakalwe did agree with me and say I'm town. Does that bother you the least? Nope you are playing your way trying to antagonize me ignoring everything else.

Scum would never target me during the night because in such a small game they can't efford to exchance 1:1. Their only chance is to lynch me which you are happily organizing.

[Dp101]

I'm pretty sure the game is no solved Gaz, but that's a problem for another day. DP101 was quick to grasp what enabler is, even that it could disable mafia power (something I hadn't considered at all). Slight suspicion of Lewwyn & DP discussing the claim in quicktopic.

Actually, I have had the signup thread with the list of role PMs open the whole game so I can make sure I understand every role claimed. I fail to see how understanding how the role works automatically equals slight suspicion.

[Gazglum]

Avoiding antagonizing???? I had to defend against idiotic attacks becasue I have VT before governor since the start. Attacks from someone who is so smart that he thinks not claiming Mason while one of them is near the gallows is good play. You too brought up this idiotic discard order everytime you tried to lynch me.

I haven't mentioned your discard at all today. You are not scum for your discard, you are scum for your votes and your play.

The only defense you had to make was build a case on someone else that made more sense than my case on you. You haven't come close.

I am sorry if I have antagonised you.

[Gazglum]

Zakalwe did agree with me and say I'm town. Does that bother you the least? Nope you are playing your way trying to antagonize me ignoring everything else.

Zak is not infallible, and I believe he was wrong. If you want to drag people out of their graves, I can point to Jkaen who went to his death swearing you were scum.

[Rowain]

What is the downside of it?

You give scum the chance to dictate what happens. If you are alive would that clear Meiz? Or would you call him scum anyway because if you survive he is just scum that didn't want to kill you and if you die he is scum for not protecting you (completly neglecting the fact that there might be strongarm).

Why waste the lynch?

See that is exactly the reason why I have not changed my vote yet. All 3 are possible, all 3 have reasons to lynch them and against lynching them.

DP can't be bulletproof scum. They would need another scum-doctor or a second roleblocker

And what roles do you believe scum have? This game is promised to be balanced you think scum only had 1 roleblocker and 2 goons? Or what?

[Fenn]

Wow, a lot's happened since last night. If Gazglum is telling the truth about being a Cop, then I agree we are in a good position. But not an unassailable one. Assuming Gaz is town, my lynch preferences would be:
Meiz -> Dp101 -> Rowain
-Meiz's play has been pretty barebones throughout D1-D2, and seems to be picking up only now that he's on the block. Between him and Lewwyn I have more confidence in Lewwyn's towniness
-Dp101 was looking real scummy by the end of D2, but he has looked a little better today after getting some pressure.
-Rowain's behaviour at the start and end of D2 (weird attack against Jkaen, unvoting Prometheus), and putting Meiz last on the list of 'who to lynch today', plus how he's mostly avoided talking about Meiz all game.

There is something else I want to address:

Even if Rowain is innocent, which I am sure he is not, then play out the night as follows.

- I scan Lewwyn
- Fenn shoots DP101
- Meiz protects me

If DP survives, he is almost certainly town. If I survive, we will know what Lewwyn’s alignment is. If I don’t survive, Meiz is almost certainly scum and Novice and Fenn are confirmed beyond doubt. The only way I can see scum getting out of that is if they are lucky enough to have a doctor or another role-blocker.

I could still be a master plotter, lying about everything, but I’d ask you to give me the benefit of the doubt at this stage. If we get into a final day and I am still here, then I will happily go head-to-head against the scum, and the remaining townies can judge.

But I don’t think we will need to worry about contingincies, because Rowain and Meiz are scum.

Scum could also get out of that if they have a Dayvig or Governor and either Dp101 is right about his Bulletproof role or Mafia have some way of protecting scum!Dp. In that case, I'd have to successfully shoot scum in order for town to have a chance the following day, and I'm getting a feeling that if I shoot Dp101 next night, he wouldn't die and flip scum.

I could potentially see a Gaz + novice or Gaz + Lewwyn scum team. Gazglum already knows that I and (in the second scenario) novice are town, and so gives us town reads to get us on-side, allowing a lynch of PGO Rowain to go forward. The problem with that idea is that if Gazglum was Mafia, he'd be much better served by giving a Guilty result on me/novice or (better yet) giving an Innocent result on, like, Dp101 and letting me or novice get lynched. Much safer than giving Innocent results on two players who could be lynched and then gunning for the claimed PGO.

[Fenn]

And X-posted with the previous ten posts...I'll get back to that.

[Gazglum]

You give scum the chance to dictate what happens. If you are alive would that clear Meiz?

The point is if I am alive I get another scan, if I was not blocked. If I get no result and am alive, then it is a confusing situation and we have to consider.

And what roles do you believe scum have? This game is promised to be balanced you think scum only had 1 roleblocker and 2 goons? Or what?

Not a strong-man, or someone would be dead Night 1. Possibly a godfather, though obviously you don't have that or you wouldn't have claimed PGO. Possibly a doctor. A mafia doctor would be good balance against Fenn. A tracker seems like a crappy role for Mafia to have, but would make sense for Meiz since he claimed to visit two unhurt townies, which is something a tracker would do. A ninja is perfectly possible, if sadly pointless in this setup. Anything really.

I think Mafia have power roles, I just think they got unlucky so that those roles have not proved useful.