DaveV talks like a pirate, me hearties!

[DaveV]

Ran Sareln's calc.  3 bronze warriors gives a ~90% chance to kill each Archer, 2 is ~60%, so that's probably 5 for the archers (one wins on the 2nd attack, the other on the 3rd).  Against the warrior, your second warrior has 81% odds.  So I'd want to bring seven warriors to the party, expecting to lose 4.  Maybe a couple more to be safe, particularly for insurance against the city building another warrior, although that also increases the odds of the city having *time* to build another warrior  

4*16 = 64 hammers for a city is still a darn good deal, of course.  Especially since apparently it comes with a worker too

Of course, those are odds for unpromoted warriors.  If you bring your vets, you shouldn't need as many.  May be able to kill the warrior outright with one of your Shock monsters.

Several things: Sareln's calculator doesn't handle defensive first strikes properly (nor the 20% odds free strike), so the odds against the archers are somewhat worse than that. On the other hand, all my warriors are being built with 2 XP now, thanks to Apprenticeship. I'll probably send along a couple of my highly experienced guys, if they heal in time. To paraphrase Macbeth, "If done, 'twere well it were done quickly."

The barb worker is indeed a nice bonus; I just hope he doesn't scamper off into the fog.

[DaveV]

Turn 71 opens with an unpleasant surprise:



Yes, that's a Hippus city five tiles from my capital as the crow flies! The question is, is Dreylin planning a rush? The answer: most likely. His score is terrible, he's still in the opening civics, and his civ is one of the best at rushing (although he has the non-rushy leader). Here's some of my intelligence:











His GNP is not good, his manufacturing is decent, and his power is spiking. Next question: am I the target? Last time he rushed me, I fought him off. Does that make him respect me, or hunger for revenge? I have better power and manufacturing (with three more warriors coming next turn), but make a very tasty target because of my pirate ports.

For now, I'm probably going to have to reroute the Ahepetr strike force to the Dreylin border, and settle that hill 5E1N of the capital. Sigh.

Just to twist the knife a little, the barbs decided to waive the fortify bonus on one of their archers:



Additional note on the first picture: the highlighted stack is SE of the eastern pig, and a settler is on the pig tile. I probably should have rerouted that settler to the blocking city mentioned above, but didn't think of it till now.

[Mardoc]

Yes, that's a Hippus city five tiles from my capital as the crow flies!

Fortunately, much further away by any route he can actually take, and non-coastal so he won't be building any ships.

The question is, is Dreylin planning a rush? The answer: most likely. His score is terrible, he's still in the opening civics, and his civ is one of the best at rushing (although he has the non-rushy leader).

I disagree.  If he were planning a rush he would have at least gotten into Apprenticeship.  He also would have made sure to find you with units, not with culture.

And he wouldn't have built six cities already. They'll pay back, but not in a 'rush' timeframe.

For now, I'm probably going to have to reroute the Ahepetr strike force to the Dreylin border,

What you need now is one warrior on his border to make sure you have 3-4 turns notice if he decides to come our way (and let him know you've got copper, which should probably avert that).  He's got less Power than you do, and that's not a 'spike' any more than your power growth is a spike.  I can't imagine invading anyone with his empire, except maybe Q.

Just keep an eye on him; copper warriors can absolutely stop anything he's going to have at this point.  I'm sure he can't have both Horseback Riding and Copper, and if he does have HBR, he doesn't have anything resembling numbers.  What you mostly need is to keep ahead of him in the demographics and watch his power, so that you can match anything he decides to build.

Look, Ahrpetr will take maybe five turns?  Even if he wants to invade you, he can't put together an invasion force and get it to you in five turns.

and settle that hill 5E1N of the capital. Sigh.

Not a bad idea in general - but I would still grab Ahrpetr first.  And honestly, your current chokepoint city is pretty good, especially if you get some culture into it.  Can always grab the rest of our capital lake later, using galleys for logistics; what's important now is out growing him.

[Brian Shanahan]

Yeah, what Mardoc says is probably the best advice at this stage. Get some sort of sentry net out, and don't panic.

[DaveV]

Quick report since I'm traveling. After seeing Ellimist's borders, I moved the new city 1E onto the plains hill.

[Mardoc]

Ellimist too? Next 30 turns are going to be crucial, as the land runs out and someone dies to a T2 invasion. Against Ellimist, we're going to want broadly spread culture soonish, he's got too much reach to handle without that advantage. Well, either that, or to kill him before he kills us, but 1st in score makes him seem like an unlikely first target.

[DaveV]

Played in a hurry, didn't have time to straighten out the image hosting snafu.

I gained a trade connection to Ellimist after discovering Sailing at EoT. He doesn't have copper connected, but he can see that I do. The only resource that he has connected and I don't is sheep.

[Mardoc]

I gained a trade connection to Ellimist after discovering Sailing at EoT. He doesn't have copper connected, but he can see that I do. The only resource that he has connected and I don't is sheep.

Very glad to see we're ahead of him to copper. If he has sheep, he has Animal Husbandry and therefore access to Subdue Animal. There's a chance the griffon in the area is his, he enjoys grabbing griffons.

How's he doing on GNP? Might be worthwhile offering open borders. Can't keep Loki out anyway except by declaring war, so it would probably be worth getting the extra cash and scouting opportunities.

[DaveV]

Since I'm last in turn order, I can distinguish between true barbarian units and those who are posing as such. The nearby griffon is definitely the former.

Ellimist's GNP is good, area under the curve is pretty comparable to mine. Yes, there's probably nothing to lose by offering open borders, but I'd be surprised if he gave me free trade routes.

[Mardoc]

Since I'm last in turn order, I can distinguish between true barbarian units and those who are posing as such. The nearby griffon is definitely the former.

Forgot about that. It's a nice bonus, almost worth losing all the wonder ties .

Ellimist's GNP is good, area under the curve is pretty comparable to mine. Yes, there's probably nothing to lose by offering open borders, but I'd be surprised if he gave me free trade routes.

Forgot that trade isn't symmetrical, too . I did check; Ellimist is Perpentach. Still Arc/Cre/Cha? Cre would have definitely inflated his apparent GNP if he kept it for a meaningful length of time.