WW 44: Battlestar Galactica

[novice]

Back at a keyboard so I guess I should spout some prose, too.

If you don't mind novice, I'd prefer to lynch Dp first. No offense, but I know for a fact that Gaz and I are town, and Dp is scum. I'm pretty damn sure on you and Lewwyn, but hard facts outweigh in my view.

Fair enough. Dp101, but not locked in yet. Dp and Lewwyn as scum makes perfect sense, but Jabbz + Gaz is also possible, so it would be reckless to not give the accused parties a last chance to defend themselves. Come to think of it, Lewwyn + Jabbz is also possible, but I really do believe it's Lewwyn + Dp.*

I find Jabbz' claim much more believable than Dp's, and I'm leaning very heavily town on Gaz because of posts like this

Well that's helpful

It almost seems too cruel, i suspect this would be gg, partly because of bad luck on scum kills. But i am happy with that order.

Lol

...which just genuinely seem like a townie confident that he's worked things out.

Dp also sort of fell through today IMO. Dp, if you were trapping Jabbz tonight with your "only lean town on Winston" thing, why did you scan him?

One thing that confuses me is Gaz suddenly having me as lock town today, it was making me wonder if he had scanned me as town. Have I just been that convincing, Gaz?

*And if we're right about that I'm perfectly okay with them conceding at this point.

[Gazglum]

It's just process of elimination again, Novice. After their posts today, I am supremely confident that DP and Lewwyn are scum. So while you haven't convinced me totally of townishness in your posting (though I think they have been towny today), there is no room for you on my scumwagon.

Also, given how totally destructive a roleclaim was going to be for scum, I do not believe you would have called for it if you were not town.

[Dp101]

Oh damn, and my non-tinfoil was correct. The scumteam is almost certainly Jabbz/Gaz, but I really don't know how I'm going to convince the town of this given that one of them is AFK for the foreseeable future and the other is damn near convinced of my guilt. Novice, what is your role? Also, I scanned Jabbz because he seemed to me to be the least likely nightkill if town, which was my priority in terms of who I should scan. Jabbz. With regards to the question as to why I would scan the person I laid a trap for, it was a backup plan in case my intuition failed. Hats off to Jabbz though, that was a damn fine scum performance in terms of putting together a wall of reason. Time to do my best Ronald Reegan impression and tear it down*


*that was a joke and the first thing that came to mind in terms of votes, I know that the actual situation was more complicated.

[Dp101]

Dammit, forum ate my post, so my analysis of Jabbz's wallpost will take a while longer to arrive. I'm also no longer trying to guess his teammates, as I am undecided and if I am wrong (as is usual) I need the vote of whichever of them is town. I am slightly annoyed though that you all have agreed that my scumbuddy is the guy who isn't here to defend himself, but whatever.

[Dp101]

The game was lost when I got roleblocked.

[Jabbz]

Fair enough. Dp101, but not locked in yet. Dp and Lewwyn as scum makes perfect sense, but Jabbz + Gaz is also possible, so it would be reckless to not give the accused parties a last chance to defend themselves. Come to think of it, Lewwyn + Jabbz is also possible, but I really do believe it's Lewwyn + Dp.*

I won't fight to the bitter end against lynching Lewwyn first, if you're scum you've played a damn fine game and I wouldn't be too upset with myself for losing to you. I'd still rather just end today with Dp101, because I have no questions there, but I think the risk is small. I'm totally down with letting them defend themselves too, Dp put himself in a corner with this one so it should be interesting to see what he does to try to explain things away. Lewwyn seems to have given up or sucked into The Grading Zone...

[Jabbz]

I'm assuming Dp's response to my post is incoming, so I'll go make some food and wait for it. BBIAB.

[Dp101]

YAY!!!

So onto the important stuff. First and foremost, yes, I am claiming Cop. Last night I scanned Gazglum. It took me a while to figure who I was going to work with, but I gravitated to Gaz and Lewwyn. Lewwyn of course just looked bad, he has been very aggressive, and I didn't get a lot of town hunting vibe out of him. What I did get was a lot of chaos sowing. Gaz, as I noted before end of day 1, I have a huge weak spot for. You'll notice my concern about him however, when I talk about being stabbed in the chest.

Going into the night, I was confident that novice was town. His scum hunting felt legit, and I liked the way he pursued me, it felt like genuine searching, not someone looking to pin something on someone. Winston I was somewhat ambivalent to. He had a low post count, and wasn't really shining either way. What he did have going for him however, was that he was voting against Lewwyn, who I felt pretty sure was dirty. More importantly than that, he didnt have a finger on the rope that swung AdrienIer. I found it unlikely that scum wouldn't have at least one person on the mislynch, and the only places he had been was me and Lewwyn. That left either Dp101, or Gazglum.

Now, given the constant bickering between Gaz and Lewwyn, I was positive at least one, if not both, were scum. Either Lewwyn was scum and Gaz was hot on his trail, Gaz was scum and was hounding Lewwyn to distraction (unlikely), or they both were and were shooting for some distancing. I felt pretty good going into the night that if either were town, neither one of them would be a ripe scum kill target, because there was just too much to exploit the following day in making things look ugly due to their survival.

So, if I scan Lewwyn, and he pops town, something I felt very unlikely, then I would know Gaz was scum. The interactions they had just didn't make sense between two townies. If I scanned Lewwyn and he was scum.... I would know nothing about Gaz. Still could be town, and could be scum. At that point it's a crap shoot between him and Dp101, and I don't trust my judgement in that situation. So I take the course of action that gives me the best of both worlds. Scan Gaz, clear or convict him, and move on.

As for breadcrumbs, I didn't want to leave something obvious. I was pretty sure I was riding the middle ground of too scummy to kill to towny to lynch, but if I gave a hint I was a cop, I'd die. So the best I could do was let Adrien know I would make his death work for us.

Gg Adrien. We have quite a field to work with now mano. We will make your sacrifice worth something. So say we all.

The other thing you might have noticed, especially novice, is that I never got worried when I was being attacked as being scummy this game. The reason for that was simple, I had a badge up my sleeve. If I got anywhere near the lynch, I would just claim. Day one wasn't lylo, so town could afford to leave me one extra night. I might get blocked, but I would be unlikely to die as the doc would cover me, and if nothing else we would go into day 2 with a somewhat confirmed town, and no chance of the doc being blocked.

This is why I was so happy to do the massclaim. Gaz and Lewwyn I felt I had locked in pretty good. With the claims, someone was going to either claim what I had, or what Gaz had, and that person(s) were scum. I would have preferred to make Lewwyn claim first, but with Dp outing himself as scum, it's all good.

Sorry  Dp101 but the gig is up.

Today we lynch Dp101, tonight I scan Lewwyn, and doc protects me. In the morning, I'll know for sure if it's Lewwyn or novice, and we win with a 2 to 1 vote.

GG.

Ok then, from the top. Firstly, I admit that I too also have a weak spot for Gaz, but the thing is, do you have proof that his scum game can replicate his town game very well? I understand feeling like you always townread them, but IIRC Gaz is in fact almost always town, so I'm left wondering where your proof of Gaz being a dangerous wolf you need to scan comes from. Also, if Gaz was in fact town, I'm pretty sure that they would have been a candidate for the night kill (or at least I thought they were), and in a setup this small every cleared town, no matter who they are, is very valuable, so why wouldn't you scan someone you thought would live to ensure that your role was good?
The answer to this question is either you decided to fake a scan on town to get their vote, or you faked a peak on your wolfbuddy to ensure that me + Novice wouldn't vote them to get to the magic 3 number (in case Lew didn't change his vote), but I'm undecided as to which scenario is more likely.


I can understand reading Novice as town at this stage, I was pretty damn close to that too, it was only paranoia holding me back. But, why so uncertain on Winston? Your only comment on them is their low posting, which they have displayed in at least half of the games I have played with them, so it is a null tell at best. You now throw weak suspicion at them in order to deliberately not look like you were 100% right, to make you look more believably kinda-scummy as many town end up being. Also, your analysis of votes in regards to them is very coloured by hindsight, you should have realised that it could have been a W/W mudthrowing exercise with Winston voting a buddy that wasn't going to swing, but instead you decide that that rescued his position from being scummy? What did he need to be brought up from? This entire read is bizarre. Then, you decide that there must have been scum on the AdrienIer wagon, but why exactly 1? The mislynch didn't have much opposition, and the alternative is probably town at this stage, so they could have had zero on there. Why is it that scanning Gaz means that I must have been scum, over Novice potentially being mafia?

The paragraph about a potential W/W interaction between Lew and Gaz is good, healthy thoughts for a townie, and match mine perfectly, so I have nothing there I can call you on. Literally the only part that seems odd is your utter certainty that there is at least 1 mafia in there, I have seen some incredibly long feuds between 2 town players, and your refusal to acknowledge this situation smacks of campaigning for Novice's vote rather than examining them, you know, like a town player would be doing to find my teammate. Remember who defended me from you pretty much constantly? Novice, that's who. If you were in the business of finding a buddy for me, as you were in this post, why wouldn't you assume them? You are just lazy mafia setting up a mislynch (well, not sure if lazy can apply to someone who would type up so many words, but whatever).


The following paragraph is basically just an extension of the previous one, still about Gaz/Lew, so I don't have much new to say other than why not scan Lew, the guy who is basically never NK'd between the two of them. You can still gain information if they are scum, even more if they are town, and yet you just throw away that idea.

Calling that post breadcrumbing is stretching pretty hard, it is just what you said, telling him that his death would work for us, which isn't role indicative at all. At this point I should also state that I did not breadcrumb at all, I felt I would probably screw it up and make it be obvious, and it's not like I could actually be protected if any town realised early, so all it would lead to is my untimely death.

Refusing to acknowledge the possibility of counterclaims is highly amusing to me when you and me both know that my claim is legit here, even if you can't say in-thread. I am surprised however that you thought it would be a clear path out of the line of a lynch, given that I know the thought of exactly this, the inevitable counterclaim showdown between me and someone else, dominated my thoughts all N1. Did you forget the fact that you are meant to be claiming a Macho Cop who CANNOT BE DOCTORED? Or is the fact that you don't actually have the PM affecting your ability to remember the setup as it was given to us? The actual cop would never make such a mistake.

Not adressing the final paragraph and the vote, because I have nothing more to say.

Hats off to you Jabbz though, this is an impressive performance.

[Dp101]

I'm assuming Dp's response to my post is incoming, so I'll go make some food and wait for it. BBIAB.

I have it for you, enjoy!

[Dp101]

Oh, and in case it isn't obvious, each paragraph I wrote is a response to the paragraph it lines up with in Jabbz's post, at a 1-1 ratio, because I don't know how to split up big quotes.