WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Rowain]

FYI I understand Rowain's stance on Psilly, but I do disagree with him. If Psilly is scum and he gets modkilled it, we waste a lynch voting for him. If Psilly is town then that just increases the odds of us being right about scum right now, and lynching him would again be a waste.

Lets see:  
A) We lynch Psilly:

1)psilly scum: We go with 5 villagers vs 1 scum into 2nd day

2) Psilly town: we enter D2 with 4 villagers vs 2 scum

B) we don't lynch Psilly he gets modkilled and turns out to be scum:


3) we lynch scum : Hurray we already won
4) we lynch town: We enter D2 with 4 villagers vs 1 tscum

C) Psilly gets modkilled and is town:

5) We lynch scum:  we still enter D2 with 4 villagers vs 1 scum
6) We lynch town:  we have already lost because scum can force us to lynch a townie on day2 making it 2:2.


So by not lynching Psilly we run the risk that we instantly lose.  Why are you willing to run this risk?

[Lewwyn]

So by not lynching Psilly we run the risk that we instantly lose.  Why are you willing to run this risk?

2 reasons:

A) I honestly believe that DP and Jabbz are our scum.

B) I am me?

Also you didn't run that scenario out far enough.

D1 We lynch Psilly: Psilly is town
D2 Enter with 4 town 2 scum - Town is forced to lynch a townie when scum put up 3 townies
D3 Enter with 3 town 2 scum - we're at LyLo - We lynch scum
D4 Enter with 3 town 1 scum - Town is forced to lynch a townie when scum put up 3 townies
D5 Enter with 2 town 1 scum - We're at final LyLo

I don't want to voluntarily put myself in LyLo for the rest of the game just because its more "risky". I think its riskier to just go with the flow and let the game happen to me. Psilly doesn't show up so we lynch him, but not because he's the best candidate for lynch, but because we're forced to do it. I don't like it. What's the point in playing the game if you let the game play you. I have no interest in resigning myself to 5 (72hour) days of this. I'd rather take a shot, win or lose quickly and start the next game. But that's just me. I also confess I'm feeling very confident.

[Lewwyn]

But yes I understand your point about possibly losing the game on D1, but here's something else to think about:

If we lynch DP or Jabbz and they are a villager, Psilly is modkilled as a villager, then the game should be over. If it doesn't end at the end of Day 1 then we know we still have a chance because the scum are forced to put at least one of themselves up on the block.

[Dp101]

So by not lynching Psilly we run the risk that we instantly lose.  Why are you willing to run this risk?

2 reasons:

A) I honestly believe that DP and Jabbz are our scum.

B) I am me?

Also you didn't run that scenario out far enough.

D1 We lynch Psilly: Psilly is town
D2 Enter with 4 town 2 scum - Town is forced to lynch a townie when scum put up 3 townies
D3 Enter with 3 town 2 scum - we're at LyLo - We lynch scum
D4 Enter with 3 town 1 scum - Town is forced to lynch a townie when scum put up 3 townies
D5 Enter with 2 town 1 scum - We're at final LyLo

I don't want to voluntarily put myself in LyLo for the rest of the game just because its more "risky". I think its riskier to just go with the flow and let the game happen to me. Psilly doesn't show up so we lynch him, but not because he's the best candidate for lynch, but because we're forced to do it. I don't like it. What's the point in playing the game if you let the game play you. I have no interest in resigning myself to 5 (72hour) days of this. I'd rather take a shot, win or lose quickly and start the next game. But that's just me. I also confess I'm feeling very confident.

Your scenario is missing 1 important component. We win at lylo D5 because all remaining townies were put up for the lynch the previous day, and are clear if we go with your model of mafia always putting up 3 town. My position on the issue is that I hate lurker lynches, a lot, because they give no info and were never for anything alignment indicative. Given that we lose if we mislynch anyone but Psilly, I will move my vote there if I start losing confidence in my other options. For now though, I'm not changing.

[Lewwyn]

First:

Your scenario is missing 1 important component. We win at lylo D5 because all remaining townies were put up for the lynch the previous day, and are clear if we go with your model of mafia always putting up 3 town. My position on the issue is that I hate lurker lynches, a lot, because they give no info and were never for anything alignment indicative.

Obviously scum would argue that they were being framed or they would put themselves up.

Given that we lose if we mislynch anyone but Psilly, I will move my vote there if I start losing confidence in my other options. For now though, I'm not changing.

Losing confidence in other options? What options? Where does this confidence come from? How convenient that there's a fallback to go and park your vote on if things get too hot.

[Dp101]

First:

Your scenario is missing 1 important component. We win at lylo D5 because all remaining townies were put up for the lynch the previous day, and are clear if we go with your model of mafia always putting up 3 town. My position on the issue is that I hate lurker lynches, a lot, because they give no info and were never for anything alignment indicative.

Obviously scum would argue that they were being framed or they would put themselves up.

Given that we lose if we mislynch anyone but Psilly, I will move my vote there if I start losing confidence in my other options. For now though, I'm not changing.

Losing confidence in other options? What options? Where does this confidence come from? How convenient that there's a fallback to go and park your vote on if things get too hot.

Other opinions? My opinion that you are mafia, which hasn't shifted since I voted you. Every time I post, you read things into it that aren't there and seemingly parody my intentions. Your posts keep painting me as mafia, yet you keep not voting me. Why? Worried about getting innocent blood on your hands? Doing anything other than voting Psilly if I don't think I'm going to find mafia is basically throwing the game, why are you trying to drive me away from it? Is it because you are mafia and want to win asap by getting a modkill on your side? Seems likely to me.

[Jabbz]

I appreciate the good humour Jabbz, but I am a little less content with the idea of you being mislynched if you are town. But you're not making it easy. Since we started you have been apparently misunderstanding other people's points, and your defense seems to miss the point as well.

Nice thing about small games, easy to catch up. 

So if I understand this right, I'm scummy because:

A: I have a problem with what I view as rowain's overreaction to me talking meta, which everyone was doing.
B: I somehow have some semblance of a mind meld (with both Dp and Llewyn)
C: I voted for Dp101 first (in an obvious joke post referring back to last game) and Llewyn often votes his scumbuddy first in small games.
D: Because you guys are still miffed about last game :P

Does that pretty much cover it?

That more than covers it to my mind, and plays down the actual issue by making the details seem absurd.

The point isn't to make it appear absurd. The point is I wasn't sure I entirely understood where all the scum concern came from. My intent was to respond this morning after clarifications. Any attempts at humor simply seek to keep things mellow.

Point B and C seem purely rebuttals against Lewwyn, and I agree that they are weak attacks. Point D is padding your post with a joke. Point A is the issue.

Rowain specifically had a problem with you second-guessing wolf tactics in public, which only DP also did, and he has also come under suspicion from Rowain adn Lewwyn. You claim to disagree with him and say that Rowain is scummy for attacking you over it, but your post clearly misinterpreted the point Rowain was making.

Point D is actually not a joke. I legitimately feel a good portion of this push on me is in direct response to last game. I'm taking it humorously simply because I feel I can't complain all that much, I kinda deserve it.

As to point A:, I don't feel I misunderstood Rowain, and I don't agree that my portion of the Meta discussion was somehow all that egregious or helpful to scum.

Odd setup is odd.

So my understanding would be that scum get to put 3 townies up for lynch on day 2, and we as town have to decide which one we can most afford to lose? Is there any possibility of killing a scum on day 2? There almost has to be at least 1 scum in the trio put forth, otherwise with our limited number it outs the scum as one of the 3 people not in that pile.  My head hurts.

Clinging to tradition. Dp101.

I'm seeking clarification of how the setup is designed, it's that simple. My statement there doesn't encourage any discussion that would cause people to start laying out a framework that would help scum in any way. At worst, it helps us as town to understand what we are facing. Given that I felt fairly confident I was I was a solid mislynch target I wanted to cover things I felt were important early before the got lost in the morass of me defending myself. Also, as I've stated numerous times in the past, there is little else to discuss day one from my perspective other than meta. My problem with Rowain's response is that he seems to come about the attack by deliberately misframing my argument as something it is not. He also attempts to discourage any further discussion on the point, which I feel there is good odds I won't be around for, basically silences me on the issue permanently.

I understand the point that scum have to make their decisions tonight, but I disagree that my statement in any way makes their choice any clearer. I guarantee that scum is already thinking along those lines, as they likely got a message at the beginning that made things clear, while we are playing catchup. I'm simply attempting to bring us to the level scum is likely already at. That should have been obvious when I posted

Uhm, if I was scum I could talk about this in the scum thread. This isn't making you look good. I'm off to class. Cya.

This isn't me trying to misunderstand him. I'm saying scum's already on that line of thought, and we need to be cognizant of it as well. That simply put, is about as towny as you get.

I then agreed with Rowain, and explained why I agreed with him.

Your response is to double down that you 'did find him scummy' and stay your vote on him:

I still find Rowain's post to be questionable. I think he recognizes I'm an easy place to shift suspicion based on last game, and is looking to start an easy lynch. The fact that he doesn't vote for me is quite frankly irrelevant. If he doesn't need the vote to start the train, so much the better, as he can keep his hands clean of the D1 lynch, like Llewyn and I did last game. That shit's a straight up gift lol.  I think Rowain's attacks, whether scum or town, are simply going after low hanging fruit, and don't seem all that interested in finding scum. Until something better comes along, that moderate scum point I gave him keeps my vote on him.

You say that Rowain attacking you is going after low-hanging fruit, but Rowain attacked you for a specific reason which I agreed with. Why does that make him scummy and not me? Moreover, why are you ignoring Lewwyn, who is the one who added the reasons of mind-meld and things that riled you up? 

Rowain attacked yoo for encouraging debate on tactics, but you never responded to that specific charge, you've just attacked him right back. Your posts don't make sense to me as a townie. You have three people attacking you and you seem to have arbitrarily decided that 1 of them is scum while ignoring the other 2.

As to why I felt his response was scummy as yours wasn't, I just can't see you not being extra leery of me this game. When I'm fooled by a wolf in one game, I'm extra careful the next, I think that is pretty much human nature.

As to Lewwyn, what he said hardly riled me up. I would urge you to go back to the post and try to find where I'm even remotely agitated. I think you might be conflating me with someone else on this issue.

As to the three people attacking me. A: I hardly view Lewwyns arguments as an attack, I'm his first vote on his second post, that's usually a joke vote, and I felt his responses supported that, especially when he's posting things like

Because I read his posts and I wanted to vote for him.  

It's funny I read the thread and I was like, jabbz is scum again? And DP? Gaz looks town, too bad I wanted to lynch him, Rowain looks pretty Rowain-y.

And now Adrien, piggy backed off my comments, Shades of WW44, looks like he's a villager too.

Psilly is the only one left.

GAME SOLVED!

Hard to take that and the "mindmeld" argument overly seriously.

I responded already to why I didn't find you questionable, or at the very least did find you excusable.

That left Rowain, who I feel is trying to stifle helpful meta analysis by framing it as somehow giving scum information that I'm simply not giving nor encouraging. There is no legitimate reason to look at what I post, and extrapolate that somehow the next part of the conversation is going to be helping scum understand our reactions to who is chosen. At best its blatant misunderstanding, at worse its projection.

[Jabbz]

Now that the above is out of the way, I propose you consider the following. Please humor me as this is how I wish to spend the remainder of my time in this game.

Assuming I'm mislynched in 16ish hours, and I pop town, where do people stand on those making arguments against me. While I'm not positive Rowain is scummy, I feel his attacks are at best misguided but are most likely a wolf seeking a mislynch. Where does that leave Gaz in supporting those rather weak arguments (though I do understand that I appear to be in the minority for believing they were weak.) Where does that leave Dp101, who appears to have his guilt predicated on my own? What about Lewwyn and his joke vote on me that appears to still be there? You don't have to ignore everything else, but I would appreciate some conversation along these lines so that I can add a (tomorrow) town confirmed voice to that discussion.

[Gazglum]

Now that the above is out of the way, I propose you consider the following. Please humor me as this is how I wish to spend the remainder of my time in this game.

Lol, I cannot turn down a dying man’s request.

Day 1 Glumcount (accurate?):

Jabbz (3) - Lewwyn, Gazglum, Adrien
Lewwyn (1) - DP
Rowain (1) - Jabbz,
AdrienIer (1) - Rowain,

Not Voting: Psillycyber

So, Jabbz, here are my thoughts. I’ve been burned enough recently to not give anybody gold-star town status (wrap them in a ‘Murican flag?), but based on their posts I would not vote Adrien and Rowain today.

I still disagree with you on Rowain. I get where you’re coming from in wanting to talk about meta to start discussion, but I think Rowain’s response to you was NOT scummy, and was in line with his town game. You went away to think about it, and doubled down that he was scum trying to mislynch you. I just don’t see it, which is why I am finding it hard to trust you. It feels to me like you got called-out for a weak insinuation against him, and then couldn’t find an angle on anybody else so you stuck to Rowain.


Also, Rowain isn’t actually voting you, he looks like he is going to try to push us for Psillycyber. Wouldn’t Scum-Row want to seal the deal on you? Rowain could be clever scum, but if so he hasn’t slipped up for me yet.

Your stance on Lewwyn I find odd (I accept you are not riled up, my mistake). You say that you can’t take Lewwyn ‘overly seriously’, but we’re near the end of the day and as you say he hasn’t moved his vote. His joke vote is going to send you to the gallows. I would be starting to feel a little serious.

The weird thing for me is that if I were in your shoes and innocent, I feel like I would be very suspicious of Lewwyn, much more than of Rowain. Lewwyn has come in hard with some strong calls on people’s guilt or innocence, based on very minimal cues. By talking about DP and Jabbz equally he has set up a situation where he is avoiding the tough defender Rowain, and can plausibly swing to either you or DP at deadline as he wishes, depending on which or both of you are innocent.

DP I discount based on ‘partner’ signs or whatever, but I think he is just playing very low-profile, and exactly as you might if you were scum who had caught a bit of heat, but now the votes were going someone else’s way. I don’t like his reasons for focusing on Lewwyn, or his lack of engagement with the rest of the players.


So in my view, you and DP are both possible wolves, and possible together. I mean, everything is possible, but you guys have felt the least townish to me in your individual posts. Psilly could be partnered with one of you too. But my other most likely scenario is Lewwyn partnered with you or DP, or (possibly) Psilly.

[AdrienIer]

Huh, Rowain is still stuck on me ?