WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Lewwyn]

4h10m Until end of phase. At Qg's request I'll be handling the nighttime resolution.

Oh joy, what are you going to do, nominate yourself?

[AdrienIer]

Savage

[Jabbz]

Night end, and the dawns early light shines upon ol glory. All y'all are ready to put an alien into the ground right about now. You spent the night watching some go old patriotic fox news, so you know darn tootin who you should be looking at.

Your lynch options for the day are.

Adrien
Rowain
Lewwyn

Day 2 begins.

[AdrienIer]

Well that's inconvenient...

As I won't be able to participate as much as I'd like to discussion from 3-4h from now until ~20h before deadline I'll try to be more present now, and first will summarize my thoughts from (and about) the night.

The aliens' possibilities tonight :

1) Put up 3 villagers. Downside : if too obvious you just confirmed 3 people as town.
1) A) Put up the 3 towniest villagers and try to have the least towny villager mislynched on D3. Possible if the scum team is Gazglum and Psilly (as Dp was in the most heated spot after yesterday, but Gaz and Psilly weren't). I don't think Gaz + Psilly is a likely combo, so I don't think this is what happened.
1) B) Put up the least towny guy with two other townies. I don't see the point here, and more importantly that's not what happened or Dp would be there.
1) C) Something else ?? I suppose for strategic reasons they could do something less clear.

2) Put up 2 scum and 1 villager. Downside : super dangerous. Upside : town doesn't expect that.
Rowain and Lewwyn don't work as a team IMO. So no.

3) Put up 1 scum and 2 villagers. Downside : if not played right you get lynched.
That's, I think, the most likely. Lewwyn + Dp doesn't really work as a team, but maybe Rowain + Dp works I'll have to check. Then Rowain would want Dp out of the way to recover, and would want to pursue his attack on Lewwyn from yesterday.

[AdrienIer]

On reread Rowain + Dp works. Rowain put his vote on Jabbz as the Dp wagon was rising. But Rowain doesn't look scummy...
I think I'll start with a Lewwyn vote, because of tone only.

[AdrienIer]

So no one's there...

I'll try to find who Lewwyn's teammate could be

[Lewwyn]

DP and Gaz are the scum team.

Lewwyn

[Gazglum]

I'm here, rereading.

Lewwyn's post does not surprise me, but it does make me laugh.

[Lewwyn]

For the record my vote is locked in and I will not be changing it. I am ready to end the day whenever anyone else is. Rowain and DP were always going to vote for me today, Rowain because he's stubborn and obviously a villager, DP because he's scum. Gaz probably was going to try and get someone else lynched based off of whatever I said to continue buddying, and then "slowly come around" to lynching me on Day 3 for the scum win.

I'm sure its not obvious to you guys, but from everything I've seen (I just needed to see the end of Day 1) I am 100% sure. Particularly the lack of Gaz during the last 24 hours and his appearance just at the end of the day to confirm Jabbz's death. It has nothing to do with heeding the call, it has to do with his reaction to Jabbz. Fairly blase, oh you want to die? That's fine. Jabbz was a pretty easy target through Day 1 due to the jump out against Rowain and the ensueing disagreements that had more to do with semantics and misunderstandings. Gaz did plagiarize my misunderstandings argument too.

I'm fairly sure if we were to lynch Rowain today and I pushed for it, that would be all the justification needed to put my lynch through the next day. I'm sure the same could be said about Adrien. They put the 3 most towny people up for nomination this is in essence a pick your poison faction kill designed to create a patsy.

So there you go Jabbz, I will self vote in your honor.
(To be clear, Jabbz and I have settled shit outside of thread and I'm not poking fun at him, I am tipping my hat at the irony of the situation that I find myself in.)

[Gazglum]

Ok, so now the game gets interesting. 

Re-reading, my first feeling is shame at watching myself but heads against a townie all day. But I still stand by it. I think that Rowain was being townie and not pushing Jabbz too hard, and that Jabbz tunnelled on him and was reading Rowain's posts in an unfair light. The fact that Jabbz turned out to be town obviously means that Rowain is not solid-town, but Rowain's actual play is still exactly what I would expect from town Rowain.

I started re-reading thinking that I had overlooked Adrien, but really, nothing bad stands out for me there either. And Psilly read so townie to me on his entry that it is hard for me to consider him a suspect at the moment.

SO given the general town-vibes I am getting, I am pretty certain that DP101 is scum. Yes, maybe I should have voted for him yesterday, but I was also confident on Jabbz and really didn't like his self-vote. 

Lewwyn makes good points against DP. To add to them, I noticed these two posts:

It makes more sense to me than someone giving me scum cred for making observations on mechanics, and doing so only by claiming somehow I'm trying to get people to talk about stuff so scum can set us up. So yeah, sure.

This post is towny, don't lynch this. Please come join me in Lewwyn everyone.

Then Rowain joins him on Lewwyn, and DP says:

For a real vote I'm now going to place it on Lewwyn.

I'm not complaining that you are voting the scummiest person in-thread, but why? All I see in terms of your actions toward them is some disagreements about how to handle the (now averted) potential modkill situation. Is that all that is causing the vote, or is there something more?

DP sent out the call, Rowain answered, and then DP instantly starts doubting? I mean, yes, Rowain's way of voting without reasons can be infuriating, but it is how he always plays. WHy didn't DP assume that Rowain agreed with his case (what case?) and try and encourage more people to join them? 

Probably because DP is paired with Lewwyn. DP and Rowain makes a lot of sense, yeah, but Rowain reads towny to me. Lewwyn is playing great and funny, but he makes a lot of sense to me as scum.

> Lewwyn comes in setting up two suspects so he can switch between them. 
> Lewwyn seems overconfident on his early reads, dividing the table into friends and enemies
> While voting Jabbz, Lewwyn is in favour of letting Psailly get modkilled (and presumably lynching Jabbz), which would have just lost us the game

Lewwyn gets some heat for voting Jabbz while building more of a case on DP, so he switches to DP and tells us to join. But when he did that, DP had NO votes on him, and Psilly hadn't arrived. So at that point I was assuming Psilly would be lynched, Jabbz seemed second most likely, and DP not really in much danger.

Then Psilly arrives and Lewwyn keeps going, but I would argue that at this point it would have been hard for him to change. Also, even losign DP, Lewwyn has a strong path to victory ahead of him.

> DAY 1: Lynch DP, unfortunate, but it makes Lewwyn look good and Jabbz look bad
> DAY 2: put up, say, Adrien, Gaz and Rowain to ensure the death of a townie
> DAY 3: lynch Jabbz as DPs partner
> DAY 4: 1 scum and 3 townies left, put up the three townies and win.

So i fact Jabbz was right (in that scenario), his staying alive would only cause problems later on.

And Lewwyn helped give himself a backup by calling me SCUUUUUM at deadline for not joining him on DP, even though I had ver consistently been onJabbz, who Lewwyn also had apparently believed to be scum. So I am not surprised at all to see him pick me for DPs partner now. 

But I probably do make a plausible partner, it is hard for me to gauge from within. I hope that my posting shall speak the truth for me.

Lewwyn.