WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[AdrienIer]

Last line is a response to Gaz and Lewwyn discussing me as a potential partner to Dp

[Psillycyber]

On reread Rowain + Dp works. Rowain put his vote on Jabbz as the Dp wagon was rising. But Rowain doesn't look scummy...

I've noticed this sort of sentiment coming from Gaz and Lewwyn too: this idea that, Rowain has been scummy but, c'mon guys, we all know it's just Rowain being Rowain...

I wish I could get a free pass like that!

I don't necessarily impute scum motives to all of you for this way of interpreting Rowain's play because, after all, you all can't be scum. But it seems like a very convenient excuse for scum to have to hedge on Rowain.

Rowain and DP were always going to vote for me today, Rowain because he's stubborn

Really? I guess I missed the part where Rowain was tunneled in on you on Day 1. I had the impression that Rowain was going almost exclusively at Jabbz. If you had quoted a line or two to demonstrate your point, I wouldn't have to be doing the hard work of re-reading the thread myself

This is something I notice about this morning's posts: Gaz is bringing logic to the table (interesting theory!) whereas Lewwyn is bringing mainly flippant-emotion-even-though-he-says-it's-not-flippant-emotion-or-anything-personal-but-is-actually-some-sort-of-brilliant-strategic-play-claiming-to-lock-in-his-vote-on-himself. Like, we're supposed to instantly understand why Rowain would obviously come after Lewwyn today even before Rowain has had a chance to speak on Day 2 yet. Lewwyn, you have my ears, but you are going to have to make a better case than that. Gaz seems more towny here.

This post (why would Psilly not count in there ?) plus Lewwyn's insistence on not lurker lynching Psilly makes a Lewwyn/Psilly scum duo plausible.

AdrienIer, would our willingness to get off the Jabbz lynch make sense if we are both scum? Only if you think Dp101 is town, thus giving us two riskless townies to switch between. Too bad you also thought Dp101 was scum and voted for him. Get your theory straight.

[AdrienIer]

Rowain is usually both assertive (even when he shouldn't have any certainty) and even aggressive when pushing people as town. That's his style.

He attacked Lewwyn strongly yesterday, even making Lewwyn his first real vote. So no Rowain wasn't tunnelling on Jabbz.

I'm saying that either Dp is scum (probably with Gaz or even maybe Rowain) or it's a Lewwyn/you pair. My theory is straight. Today I can't vote for Dp so I do what I can with the options I'm given. For example my vote on Lewwyn wasn't locked in at first. If Lewwyn had had doubts on Rowain and started pushing a possible Rowain/Dp pair I'd have listened. But if Lewwyn agrees with me that Rowain is probably not our guy then I also listen.

[Psillycyber]

In crossposting, I see that Gaz and I have had a bit of a mind-meld on Lewwyn's irrational discounting of whether a towny Rowain can be swayed with logic. I mean, he's a human being, right? To just completely write him off like that as a hopelessly confused townie at the start of Day 2 before he has even gotten a chance to speak is an insult to his intellect as a person, no?

This opening from Lewwyn this morning is so bizarre the more I think about it that almost feels like it could be some sort of prepared gambit between Rowain + Lewwyn for the start of Day 2. Lewwyn's play just doesn't feel natural here. It feels forced. The plan would be:
1. Nominate both Rowain and Lewwyn (town would never suspect!)
2. Have Lewwyn flagrantly act out in a way that is out of all logic even for Lewwyn and (with the help of his own scummy locked-in drama-queen suicide vote at the start of Day 2) get himself lynched.
3. Count on the "Rowain being Rowain" + "scum would never pit themselves against each other like that" cards to carry Rowain the rest of the game.

The one flaw in this theory: people would start to suspect some crazy scum gambit like this once Lewwyn did get lynched and turn up as scum. So, on second thought, this theory is probably bogus. But I'll include it, instead of deleting it, only to highlight the lengths I am reaching to in order to try to explain to myself why Lewwyn's play feels so contrived this morning.

[Psillycyber]

You are suggesting that I simply get Rowain lynched because he's a villager in my way to saving the town. I appreciate the compliment, but one of the reasons I'm pretty good at this game is that I read people fairly well and one of things I avoid in every game is getting into it head to head with Rowain.

I agree with Lewwyn here, though. Gaz's advice to lynch an innocent Rowain if Lewwyn thinks Rowain is a confused townie who can't be swayed by logic...and then somehow lead the town to victory isn't very well thought out. If Rowain did flip town thanks to Lewwyn, that would hardly give Lewwyn town cred or put Lewwyn in a position to lead town to victory from then on. Then we would probably just mislynch Lewwyn next, and game over. Not sure what you were thinking there, Gaz.

[Gazglum]

I'm thinking that any course of action, however contrived, is better than a Townie encouraging people to vote for him.

This has been a moderately tough game so far. Other than DP, there is no clear consensus candidate for the second scum. It is far too early to announce that you have solved the scum pair without even interrogating all the suspects.

And if Lewwyn is town, I will be happy to take questions and accusations from him adn respond to them. Perhaps we have been forced into a guaranteed mislynch, (though I suspect we haven't), but we can still use the day to analyse the game.

[Psillycyber]

I feel like, for the sake of town's scumhunting, both Gaz and Lewwyn should take a break from commenting on each other and look elsewhere, and Lewwyn should be a little more open-minded. I feel like it is going to be an unproductive day if all we get is Gaz vs. Lewwyn. I have the distinct feeling that Gaz is a confused townie and Lewwyn is a confused and frustrated townie who is still a bit sore about Jabbz's throwing the Day 1 vote and not quite thinking straight right now.

[Gazglum]

I agree with that, and I will look elsewhere too. But I would still like Lewwyn to lay out the gist of his case against me more clearly, since he seems to think it is a smoking gun.

[Psillycyber]

This has been a moderately tough game so far. Other than DP, there is no clear consensus candidate for the second scum. It is far too early to announce that you have solved the scum pair without even interrogating all the suspects.

I agree. But I feel like this is a mistake that a frustrated town Lewwyn would make, the more I think about it. I know town Lewwyn likes to make big dramatic declarations of whodunit, even with his opening posts on Day 1 sometimes. So do you, Gaz.

Actually, Lewwyn's Day 2 posts so far would sit better with me if they had happened at the start of Day 1 instead as part of an obviously half-joke vote, like, "I'll vote for Rowain because he's so stubborn." Those are the sort of votes you see and expect at the start of Day 1. Not usually on Day 2. But, it's quite possible that Jabbz's throwing the Day 1 vote has put a town Lewwyn in an unusually fatalistic mood here at the start of Day 2. I hope to see Lewwyn's play improve and become more logical, and for him to back off his "locked in" suicide vote, or else I will definitely support a Lewwyn lynch.

[AdrienIer]

In crossposting, I see that Gaz and I have had a bit of a mind-meld on Lewwyn's irrational discounting of whether a towny Rowain can be swayed with logic.  I mean, he's a human being, right?  To just completely write him off like that as a hopelessly confused townie at the start of Day 2 before he has even gotten a chance to speak is an insult to his intellect as a person, no?  

This opening from Lewwyn this morning is so bizarre the more I think about it that almost feels like it could be some sort of prepared gambit between Rowain + Lewwyn for the start of Day 2.  Lewwyn's play just doesn't feel natural here.  It feels forced.  The plan would be:
1.  Nominate both Rowain and Lewwyn (town would never suspect!)
2.  Have Lewwyn flagrantly act out in a way that is out of all logic even for Lewwyn and (with the help of his own scummy locked-in drama-queen suicide vote at the start of Day 2) get himself lynched.  
3.  Count on the "Rowain being Rowain" + "scum would never pit themselves against each other like that" cards to carry Rowain the rest of the game.  

The one flaw in this theory:  people would start to suspect some crazy scum gambit like this once Lewwyn did get lynched and turn up as scum.  So, on second thought, this theory is probably bogus.  But I'll include it, instead of deleting it, only to highlight the lengths I am reaching to in order to try to explain to myself why Lewwyn's play feels so contrived this morning.

No. If Rowain and Lewwyn are a scum pair well, first of all I don't understand why Rowain attacked Lewwyn so much yesterday, and secondly they would have chosen someone they didn't both call 100% town yesterday. The third nominated would have been Gazglum or you. Most likely Gazglum. And they'd have been attacking him together. The scum duo nominating them both that would make sense here is Rowain and myself, or maybe Lewwyn and myself.

I'm leaving home right now, and won't be on a computer until monday morning. I'll take a look on my phone whenever I can.