WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Rowain]

Thoughts about Day1
Where are the scum:

case 1 DP is scum:


With DP as scum I highly doubt Adrien is his partner . His switch put DP in grave danger.


But similar Psilly who switched from Jabbz to DP did put him under a lot of pressure. For sure he could not stay on Lewwyn so DP + Psilly don't seem likely.

 Lewwy OTOH is possible. He first voted Jabbz then switched to DP at a time it looked save top do so. With DP on Lewwyn even if either of them is lynched the other does look good . Not to mention that Lewwyn loves to vote for his scumbuddy . So Lewwyn and DP look possible.

Gazglum is of course a sure possibility but his posts and his tone all sound very townglum to me.

Case2 DP is town:

 With DP as town it is clear that scum had an easy day on D1.
But under the assumption that Glum is townglum (see above) it makes itclear that 2 scum are to be found in

 Adrien,Lewwyn,Psilly.

 Now Adriens switch as scum makes sense in the way of lets lynch DP today, one of 3 townies on D2 and lynch Jabbz on D3 for the win. This works no matter if Psilly or Lewwyn are his partner

 Psilly as scum makes a lot of sense if he is partnered with Adrien. His vote made it 3:2:2 so a scumpair Adrien+Psilly could deside who would swing.

 Lewwyn as scum still works.


So from that I look at DP+Lewwyn, Lewwyn+Adrien, Lewwyn + Psilly, Adrien +Psilly

I had Adrien as sure villager but this I did on Meta-reasons because of the discussion about scum-nightkills at the beginning.
But now I think it might work with Adrien as sum especially if Psilly is his partner and Adrien was all alone in his scum-thread.

On Psilly: We do assume he was really not there till he made his entry. But this could be wrong. He made such a lot of posts in a very short time that I'm not sure they were not prefabricated to make him look better.

What does work against Lewwyn as scum is his comment when he learned that Jabbz does the night resolution.

[Lewwyn]

Thoughts about Day1
Where are the scum:

case 1 DP is scum:


With DP as scum I highly doubt Adrien is his partner . His switch put DP in grave danger.


But similar Psilly who switched from Jabbz to DP did put him under a lot of pressure. For sure he could not stay on Lewwyn so DP + Psilly don't seem likely.

 Lewwy OTOH is possible. He first voted Jabbz then switched to DP at a time it looked save top do so. With DP on Lewwyn even if either of them is lynched the other does look good . Not to mention that Lewwyn loves to vote for his scumbuddy . So Lewwyn and DP look possible.

Gazglum is of course a sure possibility but his posts and his tone all sound very townglum to me.

Follow it all the way out Rowain. If DP is scum, Adrien is unlikely, Psilly is unlikely, when I die I'll be innocent, who's left? Gazglum.

[Rowain]

I'm now up to date - the previous post were comments I wanted to post as soon as D2 started but I got distracted till now.

I agree with Gazglum that I'm not a fan of locked-in votes but I do see where you are coming from.

I'm not very happy that you are entrusting me with the town-leading as I'm usual not a good leader.
It is seldom I get the people to follow me while you have proven time and again that people will follow your lead.   

I had the impression that Rowain was going almost exclusively at Jabbz.

No I was not going after Jabbz at all. I was trying to get him to reconsider . The same what Gazglum, Adriewn and Lewwyn tried.
There was reason why I did not vote for him till the end. But IMO Jabbz never had interest into playing this game as town. His own game was far too important for him.

Lewwyn are you sure you are acting on towns best interest and not yours?

[Gazglum]

I re-read Rowain, but I'm straining to find obvious scumtells there. Jabbz said that Rowain's tone was wrong, and he acted like he wasn't fairly reading Jabbz' posts. I think that Rowain's tone sounds like he is angry at what he sees as JAbbz' unfair representation. The problem with ScumRowain is that Jabbz gave him a good target to dispute with, so even if he was scum he would have been able to play that day well.

I do think that Rowain's indignation at Jabbz is honest. But Rowain has a careful distinction in his head between fair and unfair, and I think he could feel righteously angry at being called scummy for the 'wrong' reasons, even if he was, in fact, scum.

In favour of the Scum Rowain's theory:

> He is quick to say Adiren and I are towny and encourage my own attacks, which is a good way to keep us onside
> He doesnt' engage with DP much. After the initial scumpoint he focuses on Jabbz, talks about the lurker lynch, then lists his suspects as Jabbz, DP and Lewwyn. Says of DP:

Bad news because while he first happily engaged how scum should play he has dropped his contribution. Lying low while jabbz gets the heat.

But then as DP is starting to pick up some actual heat, Rowain puts his 'real vote' on Lewwyn without mentioning DP at all.

He then comes back before deadline to find it a naer tie between Jabbz and DP, but he doesn't mention DP at all, he just goes to Jabbz. No further mention on his opinion of DPs case.

So...I don't know. I read Rowain's tone as townish, his play could go either way.

I read Rowain with a feeling that DP was scum. I'm fairly sold on the DP scum theory, largely because I have felt town vibes from Adrien, Psilly, Rowain and sometimes Lewwyn. Obviously I'm wrong on one of those, but I hope to not be wrong on two.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn are you sure you are acting on towns best interest and not yours?

Damn Rowain. Hitting me right in the feels.

I'll sleep on it.

[AdrienIer]

Rowain what's your plan ? One of us has to die today.

[Dp101]

Well, crap. Scum appears to have put the consensus towniest people in to lynch, so no matter what we lose a townie. However, I think it is highly unlikely that there are no mafia in the selection, so there is probably 1 in the nominees and 1 in me, Gaz, and Psilly. If I go off of this theory, then I think the scumteam is most likely Lew/ Gaz. Lew gets some minor townpoints from the fact that his reaction to the selfvote was genuine, but I still don't like his D1. Gaz might just be trying to hold back a little after his last 2 games, but I'm just not feeling the townie fire I would expect from him.

[Rowain]

One of us has to die today.

I know but we have sometime left. And instead of thinking who of us 3 should die I'm more concerned about the proceedings afterwards. Or more precisely whom to trust.

Rowain what's your plan ?

I'ms still thinking about that.
case A:
I did announce you as town yesterday for Meta-reasons. I'm no longer sure this holds water.
I still trust gazglum for his tone and way so far.
I do think Lewwyn was honest in his reaction towards Jabbz . At least I do hope he did not steep so low as to utter this for pure calculating reasons.

But if I believe in Lewwyn and Glum being town than I'm left with a scum-team Adrien + Psilly. So lynching you today seems best.

case B:
Lets just assume I believe Lewwyn but not Glum. Then DP is most likely scum and Glum would be his natural partner. Then lynching Lewwyn is still a bad idea as Lewwyn is strong enough to get the glum lynched which neither you nor I are. That again leaves me the only sensible choice to lynch you today. AS there is still a chance that Lewwyn is wrong and you are scum.

case C:
Lewwyn is a manipulating devil who used his comment to trick us into believing him innocent and his "Oh lynch me today" is just a clever ruse. If he survives then of course he wins the game but if he dies
he just loses it because I would say we have enough days left to find the final scum. (DP does become a huge possibility then). So in this case lynching Lewwyn is the clear best choice.

Sadly I consider case A ( you being scum) rather unlikely because I don't see why you would nominate yourself.

[Rowain]

To explain the last sentence: Lewwyn is fond of ballsy play. Adrien I do judge differently.

[AdrienIer]

Is there something in particular that you find scummy about me ? Or is it just a general feeling ? Just in case you want me to explain something.

For case B I'm all for lynching Lewwyn-> Dp to cover our bases. Then if indeed Lewwyn is town and Dp is not we'll look at Gaz and you. From my perspective it's the least risky play