WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Lewwyn]

Just lynch DP after I'm dead and you can figure out the details afterwards.

Though I must say the circle jerk is in full swing here. Time often works against the village and it seems like it is already starting to do that to you guys. Reevaluation is necessary, but so often you go so far left you come out the other side.

[Rowain]

@Psilly Assume Lewwyn turns out to be town: Who are your 2 scums and why.

[Psillycyber]

  The only thing I can think of is that this is a scum gambit only slightly less audacious than the Gaz + Lewwyn scum theatre gambit I discussed earlier, where scum Lewwyn is fine with flipping as scum so long as he appears to have been trying to make a gambit to incriminate Gaz + Dp101 to get one or both of them mislynched as townies...meaning that he was setting things up to imply (after Lewwyn flips) that Dp101 is town, thus bringing his scumbuddy back from the brink. 

The big problem with that theory is that if Lewwyn is scum wee have 3 more days to find the missing scum (well 2 as on D4 scum forces us again to choose between 3 people ). So chances that we  don't hit Dp who was topsuspect yesterday, who would be lynched today if there were a chance (no one has even suggested he is town so far) are rather slim. So slim that I really doubt that scum Lewwyn would take such a shot no matter how time-constraint he might be.

Rowain, do you think that DP is scum?

Here is the problem: His play so far has been scummy. He tries to get forgotten, his logic for why Lewwyn is scum and a pair with Gazglum seems far fetched. But if DP is scum then I find it hard to find anybody else to be his scumbuddy besides you Mr Glum. And while Lewwyn is sure he found scum in you I still fail to see it. So I'm bound to look elsewhere.

I just find it hard that Gaz would label his top two scum as Jabbz + Dp101 on Day 1 if Gaz were paired with Dp.  I suppose, if Gaz was willing to entertain the idea that Dp101 was scum only after the Jabbz lynch seemed like a sure thing, then that makes a Dp101 + Gaz pair possible.  After all, that's how I have Lewwyn pegged.  The difference is, Lewwyn has done a lot of other scummy things too to seal the deal, whereas that's the only thing I can think to pin on Gaz.  

Just lynch DP after I'm dead and you can figure out the details afterwards.

Though I must say the circle jerk is in full swing here. Time often works against the village and it seems like it is already starting to do that to you guys. Reevaluation is necessary, but so often you go so far left you come out the other side.

Lewwyn strikes at a grain of truth here.  Time often just allows town to confuse and incriminate each other, especially in a setup where we might just be voting on 3 townies. 

Here's another thing I've noticed about time, though:  very rarely does a lynch vote end up how it starts out at the beginning of a round.  It is possible that scum Lewwyn could have been counting on this.  A bold move right off the bat on Day 2 to try to plant the seed that Gaz needs to be lynched... 

(by the way, Lewwyn:  why single out Gaz this morning, when now you sound like the Dp101 pairing could be Dp101 plus anyone else, including possibly Adrien or Rowain whom we could lynch today?  Are you not interested in exploring that possibility?  Or do you just have to be the martyr?)...

...which then, if the bold move backfires, count on enough townies to lose their nerve and switch to someone else before the end.  Townies often start second-guessing right about now, with things like, "Scum seem pretty content to sit on this lynch.  This one can't be our guy..."  It could be a game of chicken that scum Lewwyn was counting on town to lose.  

@Psilly Assume Lewwyn turns out to be town: Who are your 2 scums and why.

Dp101 + a toss-up between Gaz, Adrien, and you.  Dp101 I've explained.  As for the other three possibilities, none of you has done anything that really jumps out at me, so it's tough.  I'm left with this overall vibe of you three.

[Dp101]

Rowain, to answer your question of "what if Lew is innocent" from earlier, I…really don't know. Only thing I am sure of is that it makes Gaz more likely to be mafia, because the exchange from earlier wouldn't have been faked. I'm losing confidence there, though. It really can't be Psilly at this stage, probably can't be you because of an emotional outburst earlier that I wouldn't expect from scum!you, so that just leaves AdrienIer as his partner. I'm uneasy about that though because the lynch would be purely via POE rather than any actual scumminess by him. Might reread actually to see how well a Gaz/AdrienIer team would work.

[Rowain]

...which then, if the bold move backfires, count on enough townies to lose their nerve and switch to someone else before the end.  Townies often start second-guessing right about now, with things like, "Scum seem pretty content to sit on this lynch.  This one can't be our guy..."  It could be a game of chicken that scum Lewwyn was counting on town to lose.  

This might be true if we can choose whom to lynch freely. But here we only have those that scum have sorted out for us. So it is a good bet that scum are going to be pretty content no matter whom we lynch.

[Psillycyber]

If scum are content no matter whom we lynch today, then from my perspective the scum have to be Dp101 + Gaz. So, Rowain, by all means, try to convince me why Gaz makes sense as scum. (Same to you, Lewwyn. I didn't buy your argument from this morning. If you are town, try harder...or at least offer an explanation of how, if there's very little to catch Gaz on, how scum Gaz has managed to play such a sly game so far as to seem so towny).

But what I notice is that, so far, you (Rowain) haven't actually tried to do that to offer a constructive contribution and persuade me to change my vote if I am town...but instead, only search for holes in my theory to make me look bad. I also seem to be the only Lewwyn voter being given any pressure from you to justify my Lewwyn vote, like you have an agenda.

[Gazglum]

Rowain, to answer your question of "what if Lew is innocent" from earlier, I…really don't know. Only thing I am sure of is that it makes Gaz more likely to be mafia, because the exchange from earlier wouldn't have been faked. I'm losing confidence there, though. It really can't be Psilly at this stage, probably can't be you because of an emotional outburst earlier that I wouldn't expect from scum!you, so that just leaves AdrienIer as his partner. I'm uneasy about that though because the lynch would be purely via POE rather than any actual scumminess by him. Might reread actually to see how well a Gaz/AdrienIer team would work.

This reads terribly to me, Dp. The old, 'I can't see any scum here' routine? You said that you can't see the old townie fire in me, but when I started trying to put some fire on Lewwyn you say that you think it's staged.

So you are not confident I am scum, but i am?

It can't be Psilly (why not?)

Can't be Rowain because of emotion.

HAs to be Adrien? Does that mean you think the current pair is Lewwyn and Adrien? What has Adrien done to make you suspect him?

By the way, I don't think anybody should be saying that people can't be scum because !Emotion!. Rowain, for example, gets emotional when he is attacked. This is known about him. So if he is scum, he may feel that he has to fake a level of that to match his baseline. That might strike people as unsporting, but every wolf has to try and mimic their town game.

DP, I think you are scum. The only thing holding me back is that I was so humilaitingly wrong last game. But last game you were on fire at the end, bashing out posts, giving your tells, playing hard. This game you have barely played at all, and now I read you as scum who is just trying their best to hide their partner by leaving minimal tells before your inevitable lynch.

[Gazglum]

Rowain, do you think that DP is scum?

Here is the problem: His play so far has been scummy. He tries to get forgotten, his logic for why Lewwyn is scum and a pair with Gazglum seems far fetched. But if DP is scum then I find it hard to find anybody else to be his scumbuddy besides you Mr Glum. And while Lewwyn is sure he found scum in you I still fail to see it. So I'm bound to look elsewhere.

Here is the problem for me, too, Rowain. A mirror of yours. You and DP make a logical pair. You claim to have joined the 'DP is scum' consensus, but you didn't comment on him when it counted yesterday, and today you are just exploring every other possibility.

So you say that DP could only be matched with me. Fair enough. But then you entirely dismiss that because I am so Super Town. AM I really? I am flattered, but Lewwyn and DP think I'm scummy. Why do you dismiss a DP/Gazglum team, when I was the deciding factor in saving DP's bacon last game? Why aren't you pressing him on me, or me on him? Why not look into Adrien + DP for that matter?

Basically, why does my towniness outweigh DPs scumminess?

I would say to you that I think Psilly is innocent, and I think without further evidence we shouldn't worry too much about Psilly/Lewwyn today.

What do you think we should do tomorrow if Lewwyn hangs and is guilty?

What if Lewwyn hangs and is innocent?

[Gazglum]

Finally, @Lewwyn. You are high on my scum list btu I am not certain. So if its town Lewwyn I am talking to now, I say that I am town too, I agree with you on DP and I will lead the charge against him once his invincibility cloak wears off, and I want to solve this. If you suspect me, please give me reasons I can debate and rebut you on. If you are town and just want out to focus on the other game, I would ask you to reconsider.

If you were town, then I would be most suspicious of Rowain as DPs partner, but then if you were town then it would be TownLewwyn telling me that Rowain is town too, its a problem for me. So as a thought experiment, assume I am innocent and apply your big brain to the problem. WHo do you think would be partnered with DP?

[Gazglum]

Why do you dismiss a DP/Gazglum team, when I was the deciding factor in saving DP's bacon last game?

Not 'last game', I mean yesterday. I was in fact the deciding factor in cooking DPs bacon last game.