(February 5th, 2017, 14:51)Gazglum Wrote: Here is the problem for me, too, Rowain. A mirror of yours. You and DP make a logical pair. You claim to have joined the 'DP is scum' consensus, but you didn't comment on him when it counted yesterday, and today you are just exploring every other possibility.
Yes I know.
(February 5th, 2017, 14:51)Gazglum Wrote: So you say that DP could only be matched with me. Fair enough. But then you entirely dismiss that because I am so Super Town. AM I really? I am flattered, but Lewwyn and DP think I'm scummy. Why do you dismiss a DP/Gazglum team, when I was the deciding factor in saving DP's bacon last game? Why aren't you pressing him on me, or me on him? Why not look into Adrien + DP for that matter?
Everytime I read your posts from day1 I think this is townglum playing. Adrien + DP has the problem that Adrien cast the 3rd vote on DP yesterday making 3:3 with Dp being on Lewwyn. A bit risky play especially when you, me and Jabbz could switch to DP anytime.
(February 5th, 2017, 14:51)Gazglum Wrote: What do you think we should do tomorrow if Lewwyn hangs and is guilty?
What if Lewwyn hangs and is innocent?
if Lewwyn is scum it shouldn't matter much we have enough days to find the final scum. If Lewwyn is town we have to think real hard about which duos make sense. But most likely we lynch DP and see what happens.
BTW Gazglum I get emotional when I'm attacked with untruth/wrong reasons.
I hate this because I really do think Adrien and Rowain are town. They would be the two I would put highest on my town list at the end of Day 1. They have done nothing today to make me think otherwise. Thus I am not going to proffer any argument against them. I will however talk a bit about the others (any of which I would have voted for today).
So I'll start with Psilly because I do think this is strange. The rapid switch from Lewwyn is a totally innocent to Lewwyn is totally scum is giving me whiplash, but also the absoluteness of the statements is not great. I also feel his initial attack on Adrien today was pre-planned. Possibly, lynch Adrien and then lynch me day 2 with the switch of ideas. In particular today some of the arguments about some of my posts on Day 1 are misconstrued. Granted I don't think I was explaining my thought process in the moment to the most clear degree, but Psilly had no issues with any of my posts back on Day 1 when he immediately said he agreed with me (Also sort of a red flag, who would 100% agree with me on that day one? I was fairly concerned but welcomed the aid to my crusade.)
The posts in question is his purple post:
(February 4th, 2017, 13:54)Psillycyber Wrote: Something I noticed after re-reading Day 1 is that both Lewwyn and Gaz felt pretty sure about the Jabbz + Dp101 combo at various points. With their Day 1 reads so similar, you'd think they'd be seeing more eye-to-eye today on Day 2.
In particular, Lewwyn, I'm not sure why you came out this morning assuming Gaz + Dp101 had to be the scum team. You criticized Gaz for not getting off the Jabbz lynch at the end of the day, but you don't really dispute his reads that Jabbz and Dp101 were both scummy on Day 1 and pretty much equally reasonable targets—because that was your read too, at least until the very end of Day 1 when you came down more firmly against Dp101 (but not vouching for Jabbz's innocence either, if I recall, (in fact, exact words: "I'm also pretty sure of Jabbz, but honestly DP is just higher on my list.") so not exactly disputing or changing your earlier read substantially).
So, in Gaz's shoes, why not stay on the Jabbz lynch? If not for wanting to humor you, I myself would have stayed on the Jabbz lynch. Surely you'd be able to see how Gaz's play at the end of Day 1 could be a reasonable town mistake rather than assume that it had to be chosen out of conscious scum play.
Let me address this first. I think that Gaz's lack of reaction to Jabbz self-vote and his general lack of commentary on the last few hours of the day before the end are what is suspicious. DP was throwing up red flags everywhere at the time, particularly in his reactions with me. I honestly felt that Gaz's Jabbz's vote was lazy at the end. And his acceptance of Jabbz vote (whereas today he's actually questioning or looking for something from me) stood in stark contrast to townglum's usual operating procedure.
I think today he's been pretty townglum actually, but I also think that when you're not on the block a lot of the pressure is off you so you can basically "scumhunt" without any repercussions. And I may have made it easier for them by announcing my intentions at the beginning of the day rather than towards the end. Mea culpa, dealing with family issues and I've been swinging emotionally back and forth, overreacting in a lot of ways.
But let's go back to Psilly's attack on m y Day 1 posts. He quotes:
(February 4th, 2017, 13:54)Psillycyber Wrote:
Lewwyn Wrote:So You think Jabbz is town, but you don't talk about it in thread. Instead you hide away and say nothing... because you don't want to stir the pot. Which is exactly why I'm voting for you. If I'm wrong about Jabbz, you would want him to go down. You wouldn't want to stir the pot.
Lewwyn Wrote:You hoped others would PICK UP ON THE FACT that you weren't defending Jabbz? So that they would REALIZE you were actually defending him and thought he was town? BECAUSE YOU ALWAYS DEFEND YOUR SCUMBUDDY?!
WHAT?!
Yes, it makes so much sense why haven't been talking much, because every time you do you incriminate yourself more.
I just want to point out that this criticism of Dp101 (among others Lewwyn had) rested entirely on the presumption that Jabbz + Dp101 were the scum duo. We know now with Jabbz's towniness that this is no longer admissable as scum-Dp101 evidence. But the real point I want to make is to compare it with this post by Lewwyn just a little later:
Lewwyn Wrote:I am saying its very possible that you are scum and Jabbz is town. If you are scum and jabbz is town. Obviously you wouldn't want to defend him. I am not so stupid as to cling to the idea that you and Jabbz are scumbuddies. That was a working theory, but you are trying to use that as a shield. I am saying that your actions are those of scum trying to get Jabbz lynched.
On re-read, this is the first place where I can find Lewwyn actually entertaining the idea that Jabbz could be town. Whereas, contra Lewwyn's statement here, it did very much seem like Lewwyn had been clinging to the "Jabbz + Dp101 scumbuddy" theory earlier, and I wouldn't fault Dp101 for getting that impression. Also, this idea that scum Dp101 was trying to get town Jabbz lynched directly conflicts with Lewwyn's earlier supposition that scum Dp101 was trying to defend scum Jabbz. Both theories couldn't be correct...and yet here we see Lewwyn make each argument in quick succession.
Okay so I read this and it actually reads more like a confirmation of my actions in keeping with my towniness. And yet it makes me scum?
Original exchange with DP:
(February 2nd, 2017, 22:14)Lewwyn Wrote: Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
(February 2nd, 2017, 22:08)Dp101 Wrote: Do you know why I keep not interacting with most of the discussion? Because most of it is about Jabbz, and I am reading him town, and seemingly everyone has decided that we must be scum together. Given that you apparently decided that we must be teamed even before I put forth my townread of him, I really didn't want to stir the pot any more by posting an additional defence, since I had hoped that others would pick up on the fact that I normally would, you know, actually defend a scumbuddy, rather than just quote one post and call them town. The plan was then for you lot to go find someone else to lynch, preferably you, instead of lynching town just because they were trying to figure out the setup. Does that make more sense as to why I haven't been talking that much?
I highlighted a couple things here...
So You think Jabbz is town, but you don't talk about it in thread. Instead you hide away and say nothing... because you don't want to stir the pot. Which is exactly why I'm voting for you. If I'm wrong about Jabbz, you would want him to go down. You wouldn't want to stir the pot.
You hoped others would PICK UP ON THE FACT that you weren't defending Jabbz? So that they would REALIZE you were actually defending him and thought he was town? BECAUSE YOU ALWAYS DEFEND YOUR SCUMBUDDY?!
WHAT?!
Yes, it makes so much sense why haven't been talking much, because every time you do you incriminate yourself more.
Look at what DP says. It's the scummiest thing I've ever seen. It was at this moment that I also realized that Jabbz was most likely not scum. Which I then reiterated later. DP's reasoning was one of scum who knew that Jabbz was innocent and was using that knowledge to create a world where he didn't have to defend Jabbz because by not defending him he was actually defending him.
I realized that Jabbz was probably the wrong choice and I got some deep pangs in my stomach. Then Jabbz self-voted (Which is inherently anti-town behavior), and I couldn't justify saying I now believe that Jabbz is town. So I did what I could to try and get everyone to join me on the obvious scum.
Psilly talks about this as though I was locked in on the two, but obviously I wasn't because I literally said that I was no longer sure. Psilly even quotes me, but somehow he takes my change in stance to be scummy? Even though he had a "decent town lean on me when he voted for Jabbz and then decided to follow me to DP. He didn't have any trouble before that.
Now of course my one issue is that he actually did vote for DP. BUT! He "went to bed" 20 minutes before the deadline and could easily jump back on to switch onto Jabbz with no issue if Jabbz swapped over to DP to save himself. "Too curious couldn't sleep. Jabbz was obviously gambitting with the selfvote and now he's switched off! Scum!"
Alternatively if DP was lynched he could claim credit and he might actually be able to ride that all the way to the end. DP was already heading towards his last legs.
I direct your attention to the DP vote, spoilered for convenience:
(February 2nd, 2017, 23:35)Psillycyber Wrote: I'd be tempted to switch off Jabbz and onto Dp101 if only Jabbz would entertain the idea that Dp101 is scum. That would give me some thought that maybe Jabbz is town. But Jabbz seems oddly reluctant to even entertain that idea. I mean, maybe you think Rowain and Lewwyn are scummier, that's your call, but doesn't it seem like Dp101 has been pretty scummy?
Right now, I'm happy with lynching either Jabbz or Dp101. Fuck it, I'll put my vote on Dp101. The tiebreaker here is, Lewwyn seems like the last townie that I need to convince of my innocence. Fair enough. By voting for Dp101, I hope I can convince Lewwyn that I'm not Dp101's scumbuddy and just bluffing with my criticism of Dp101 while counting on the easy Jabbz lynch to go forward. I'd hate to have that sort of suspicion dogging me on Day 2 and distracting town. So, let's get some more votes on Dp101.
Now, I'm about to go to bed, and ordinarily I'd be concerned about splitting the vote, but I feel like the solid townies are all pretty much on either Jabbz or Dp101, so here are the possibilities I see:
1. Enough votes stay on Jabbz to lynch him. Alright with me.
2. Enough new votes get onto Dp101 to lynch him. Alright with me.
3. Scum use the split vote at the last second to push a 3rd choice through. But this would be incredibly blatant and would pretty much out the scum voters anyways.
So that's why I feel okay switching my vote onto Dp101.
In retrospect this is a big justification to say "I'll convince Lewwyn of my towniness with this vote that may not even matter" because as Psilly says "Enough votes stay on Jabbz to lynch him." He literally says it looks like I've convinced everyone of my towniess except Lewwyn.
Continuing with the purple post"
(February 4th, 2017, 13:54)Psillycyber Wrote: Lewwyn starts to look more and more scummy upon re-read. The only problem I have with a Lewwyn vote right now is, it leaves me in the dark as to who the other scum would be. I really don't see how it could be Dp101. AdrienIer would mean scum put both of themselves on the block today—unlikely (although, if this meta consideration didn't exist, I would be inclined to consider an AdrienIer + Lewwyn combo based on AdrienIer's play as well). Ditto with Rowain being an unlikely partner due to 2 scum being on the block. I would be left with Gaz + Lewwyn. The only way that would make sense is if this morning's back and forth between Lewwyn and Gaz was all spectacular theatre.
This all seems like justification for voting for me, rathionalizing a vote that does not need that much rationalization. Very much like someone who is faking scumhunting, IMO.
(February 4th, 2017, 13:54)Psillycyber Wrote: Of course, we should always keep in mind the possibility that all 3 nominees are town and the scum pair is Dp101 + Gaz. But Gaz just feels towny to me...and thus, ergo, Lewwyn has to be town too, even though they haven't gotten along this morning. There's just no other pairs for Lewwyn that make sense. So, right now I'm going to stick with my working theory that scum is Dp101 + one of AdrienIer OR Rowain. But hey, Gaz buddy, if you can make a case for why a scum pair of you + Lewwyn makes sense, I could be persuaded to switch my vote to Lewwyn for today.
Strange to me, but makes more sense when followed with:
(February 4th, 2017, 14:23)Psillycyber Wrote: Okay, so let's say this is theatre between scum Gaz and scum Lew, and Gaz later today "convinces" Lew to unvote himself. That still leaves Gaz with his vote on Lew, AdrienIer with his vote on Lew, and any others who pick up on Lew's strange behavior this morning and decide to vote him as well (by the way, who you gonna vote for, Dp101?) I don't see how Gaz can easily switch off Lew just because Lew undoes his suicide vote. Gaz would need more of a public reason than that. Gaz would have to stay on his vote for Lew...and hope that others switch (and why would they? Just because Lew undid his suicide vote? What could Lewwyn do at this point to re-frame his morning's play in an entirely different light?) And Gaz would need to be counting on others changing their votes from Lew because I feel like this plan would badly backfire if Lewwyn were actually lynched, and town would be alerted to the probability of some crazy scum gambit like this. I feel like scum Gaz and Lewwyn, devious veterans that they are, would have come up with a better plan.
But I really can't shake the feeling that Lewwyn has been scummy this morning. That trumps whatever little I have against Rowain and my feeling that AdrienIer is being too cool.
I guess Lewwyn + Dp101 could work after all, if we assume (as some others have already suggested) that Lewwyn initially got onto Dp101's lynch as an alibi, not counting that it would actually have a chance of going through. Alright, Lewwyn then (but not because of the theory Dp101 came up with, which seemed to be quite implausible and reinforced the feeling in my mind that Dp101 is scum and is desperately reaching for things). And then, provisionally, Dp101 tomorrow.
This seems like Psilly's way of publicly talking himself into voting for me, and once again rationalizing a switch off of Adrien who was clearly his first target of the day. I think what really turned me into thinking that Psilly might be scum is that he's trying to connect DP and I as scum and by inverse possibly bringing DP towards innocence when I flip town.
I actually think Gaz might not be scum now and that it just might be DP and Psilly.
Whatever any of you do, vote DP first tomorrow, then figure it out. I lean DP then Psilly at this point. Also remember that Day 3 lynch of Scum DP leads into Day 4 which is another nomination. That may or may not give you more insight once again.
Actually...
Day 3 Lynch DP
Day 4 Lynch Psilly or Gaz (whichever is nominated)
Day 5 Lynch the other
Anyway mathematically, for the town, I should probably vote for Adrien since my 100% knowledge of my innocence is better odds than my 90% on Adrien's innocence. But I do think its in the town's interest to lynch me.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Very good post Lewwyn. The chance of you being scum is now very small, while the chance of it being Rowain + Dp is not (or not as much). I'd be willing to change my vote to Rowain
DPs disinterest in contributing to this game has further convinced me he is scum, but I am moving away from Lewwyn as a partner. Scum Lewwyn’s self-vote only makes sense if A: his partner uses the time to reingratiate themselves in the town group, or B: his partner was laying the groundwork for everyone to jump onto somebody else. But that doesn’t seem to be happening, the quiet suggests that scum are not in a panic right now.
So after Lewwyn’s post I can see the Psilly case better. I agree that Psilly is doing a lot of talk to move himself from Adrien to Lewwyn as a target.
If it is Psilly, then he is setting up Adrien for his next target, and then presumably hoping to turn Rowain and me against each other.
DAY 2: kill Lewwyn DAY 3: poor DP departs the stage DAY 4: nominate me, Adrien and him and we hang Adrien? DAY 5: convince me onto Rowain or vice versa?
DPs disinterest in contributing to this game has further convinced me he is scum, but I am moving away from Lewwyn as a partner. Scum Lewwyn’s self-vote only makes sense if A: his partner uses the time to reingratiate themselves in the town group, or B: his partner was laying the groundwork for everyone to jump onto somebody else. But that doesn’t seem to be happening, the quiet suggests that scum are not in a panic right now.
So after Lewwyn’s post I can see the Psilly case better. I agree that Psilly is doing a lot of talk to move himself from Adrien to Lewwyn as a target.
If it is Psilly, then he is setting up Adrien for his next target, and then presumably hoping to turn Rowain and me against each other.
DAY 2: kill Lewwyn
DAY 3: poor DP departs the stage
DAY 4: nominate me, Adrien and him and we hang Adrien?
DAY 5: convince me onto Rowain or vice versa?
Quote:Let me address this first. I think that Gaz's lack of reaction to Jabbz self-vote and his general lack of commentary on the last few hours of the day before the end are what is suspicious. DP was throwing up red flags everywhere at the time, particularly in his reactions with me. I honestly felt that Gaz's Jabbz's vote was lazy at the end. And his acceptance of Jabbz vote (whereas today he's actually questioning or looking for something from me) stood in stark contrast to townglum's usual operating procedure.
I think today he's been pretty townglum actually, but I also think that when you're not on the block a lot of the pressure is off you so you can basically "scumhunt" without any repercussions. And I may have made it easier for them by announcing my intentions at the beginning of the day rather than towards the end. Mea culpa, dealing with family issues and I've been swinging emotionally back and forth, overreacting in a lot of ways.
When I went to bed, I was pretty set on Jabbz and Lewwyn was pushing against DP. Jabbz was the case I had been focused on and most convinced by. Overnight DP played badly and people moved their votes to him, but I woke up 20 minutes to deadline to find that Jabbz had voted himself. I didn't have time to properly talk to either of the suspects, and I can't remember but I don't think I realised that Jabbz was actually the one hanging himself, I thought the vote was less close than that.
Basically, they both looked scummy to me, but I had been burned by Jabbz before and I wanted to take responsibility of the case I had been pushing, rather than jump off it and then A: look very bad if DP was town, and B: worry that I had let Jabbz slip through my fingers through last minute weakness.
You wanted to pressure Adrien, who hadn't been in the spotlight.
You thought Town should focus elsewhere than Gaz+Lewwyn.
But since then you applied no pressure to Adrien other than a very fleeting vote, you haven't asked him anything about any of his posts. And you then focused on Lewwyn, and are challenging the rest of us to do the work for you by saying 'you are open to other ideas'. Your play doesn't seem to be matching the plan you laid down.
Note DP can swing to JAbbz as well, so Jabbz is in a lot of trouble.
Rowain then votes Lewwyn, which feels like a serious push to me. Psilly has Lewwyn as strongest town read, so he can't join that wagon. Meanwhile Lewwyn is hammering away at DP.
Psilly specifically asks Adrien on DP, trying to guaghe if adrien going to swing off Jabbz. Adrein suggests not, saying he is just 'meh' on DP. This suggets that Adrien wont' change his vote. My own posts suggest I am firm against Jabbz.
Lewyyn says he is 100% sure DP is scum, and Psilly said he liekd lewwyn. DP then gives a terrible post response to Lewwyn. So Psilly has already said he doesn't like DP, and at this point he can't really change his mind because DP is not giving him much to work with, and his strongset town-read is telling him that DP is scum. SO Psilly says he is open to that idea.
BUt then! Jabbz self-votes, making the votes
Jabbz (4) - Gazglum, Adrien, Psilly, Jabbz
Lewwyn (2) - DP. Rowain
DP (1) - Lewwyn
Psilly watches and waits, almost 8 hours without posting. Lewwyn reiterates he is 100% set on DP. Psilly has to go to bed.
When DP moves to protect himself at this point, the board will look like
DP looks very safe, especially because I am offline and have been hitting Jabbz hardest, Rowain also has been focusing on Jabbz over DP, Adrien suggested he won't move. Psilly has to think of the long game, so he takes the gamble of switching his vote.
(February 2nd, 2017, 23:35)Psillycyber Wrote: I'd be tempted to switch off Jabbz and onto Dp101 if only Jabbz would entertain the idea that Dp101 is scum. That would give me some thought that maybe Jabbz is town. But Jabbz seems oddly reluctant to even entertain that idea. I mean, maybe you think Rowain and Lewwyn are scummier, that's your call, but doesn't it seem like Dp101 has been pretty scummy?
Right now, I'm happy with lynching either Jabbz or Dp101. Fuck it, I'll put my vote on Dp101. The tiebreaker here is, Lewwyn seems like the last townie that I need to convince of my innocence. Fair enough. By voting for Dp101, I hope I can convince Lewwyn that I'm not Dp101's scumbuddy and just bluffing with my criticism of Dp101 while counting on the easy Jabbz lynch to go forward. I'd hate to have that sort of suspicion dogging me on Day 2 and distracting town. So, let's get some more votes on Dp101.
Now, I'm about to go to bed, and ordinarily I'd be concerned about splitting the vote, but I feel like the solid townies are all pretty much on either Jabbz or Dp101, so here are the possibilities I see:
1. Enough votes stay on Jabbz to lynch him. Alright with me.
2. Enough new votes get onto Dp101 to lynch him. Alright with me.
3. Scum use the split vote at the last second to push a 3rd choice through. But this would be incredibly blatant and would pretty much out the scum voters anyways.
So that's why I feel okay switching my vote onto Dp101.
So as as he switches he is still saying he thinks Jabbz is scum (so encouraging us to stay on Jabbz), and he openly says he is switching for town points from Lewwyn. ANd it still looks quite likely that Jabbz will hang.
I can believe it. At least I don't think that this makes DP and Psilly impossible partners. If DP was floundering, PSilly was going to have to go after him at some point, and the nomiantion process gives DP a breather.
Also, I have been thinking about my own rule of thumb for playing wolves - don't try cute and complicated plays. Setting up three townies for Lynch today is certainly the safest decision.
(February 6th, 2017, 02:01)Lewwyn Wrote: Now of course my one issue is that he actually did vote for DP. BUT! He "went to bed" 20 minutes before the deadline and could easily jump back on to switch onto Jabbz with no issue if Jabbz swapped over to DP to save himself. "Too curious couldn't sleep. Jabbz was obviously gambitting with the selfvote and now he's switched off! Scum!"
Not to rain on your parade but Psilly went to bed 3.5 hours before bedtime (at least that's the time of his DP vote where he talked about going to bed)
(February 6th, 2017, 06:01)Gazglum Wrote: Also, I have been thinking about my own rule of thumb for playing wolves - don't try cute and complicated plays. Setting up three townies for Lynch today is certainly the safest decision.
It's what I would do. Villagers are going to talk themselves into circles and believe anything if given a choice.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
