WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Dp101]

Dp, what do you reckon about Psilly?

His play contains many reads that I disagree with or think are nonsensical, but I can't find an agenda behind any of it. The tone of them also appears really towny. I don't want to lynch him, he is 100% a misguided townie right now.

[Psillycyber]

I should add:  the fact that Rowain's fact-checking was not immediately paired with an attack on the person who originally made the wrong facts (Lewwyn) suggests even more strongly that Rowain is town.  I could see a scum maaaybe going through the effort of this fact-checking if it meant that they could naysay some else's claim on some technicality and use that as an angle of attack for vilification of the original claimant.  But just setting the record straight without spinning any attack out of it or imputing any necessarily malicious motives to the original oversight seems very very towny to me.  

Once again I disagree. If you don't always spin your verification into an attack as town then you want to avoid doing it as scum or it becomes a scum tell.

Great minds think alike Gazglum

Scum tells originate from posters doing things that they don't realize they are doing.  If all posters had perfect self-awareness of their own play, then they would never drop any scum tells because they would know how to perfectly emulate their town play as scum.  In other words, they would never do anything that they wouldn't do anyways as town.  

Good players always try to minimize their scum tells, but I don't think anyone is perfect.  Your post assumes that players have perfect self-awareness and control, and thus they would automatically realize that turning fact-checking into an attack angle would be a scum tell.  I don't know, maybe all of you are more veteran than me, but that's exactly what I would think to do as scum.  (I suppose all of you think that you are better scum players than that?)  

If you proceed from the assumption that scum will never make these sorts of mistakes, then you might as well stop playing because you can bet that it will be impossible to distinguish scum from town.

[AdrienIer]

If you proceed from the assumption that scum will never make these sorts of mistakes, then you might as well stop playing because you can bet that it will be impossible to distinguish scum from town.

I'm not sure why you don't understand my point. You're saying that Rowain doing a simple correction is a clear, obvious town tell. I say it's not. Rowain is experienced, and doesn't need to use fact checking to create cases. I'm not saying that everyone (or even experienced player) make no mistakes. I'm saying that an experienced player (or even a not-so-experienced one) will sometimes not make a mistake, and that we need to be aware of that.

[Gazglum]

I love how DP popped up for that little comment then slipped away again. Poor DP.

[Psillycyber]

OK, AdrienIer, fair enough. I guess I was giving Rowain a little bit too much credit there. I should still keep open the possibility that he is scum playing prudently with the fact-checking. Still, I consider it a minor town point, so put my town reading of Rowain at 80%.

Also, Gaz, you see how you can execute a "three-point turn" on me from solid town to suspect for solid reasons. Why cannot I do the same with Lewwyn if I had my own solid reasons?

[Dp101]

I love how DP popped up for that little comment then slipped away again. Poor DP.

I already said, everyone just looks too clear right now. I think lew is mafia, but I have no idea where to go in terms of cases after that. If I had a case to make that was decent, I would be posting about it, but everyone has cleared themselves pretty damn well.

[AdrienIer]

Rowain am I right in thinking that you're not voting currently ? Just a couple hours before lynch time ? For the second day in a row ?

[Psillycyber]

Wouldn't Rowain technically have to get modkilled if he doesn't vote at all this round? (Technically, though, don't we still have like 14 hours left?)

[AdrienIer]

I think that's the rule yes

[Gazglum]

@Gazglum your crimereconstruction has some errors. For one Psilly moved towards DP after Jabbz selfvote. At his move he made:

Jabbz (3 votes): Adrien,Gazglum,Jabbz
Lewwyn (2 votes): DP101, Rowain
DP101(2 votes): Lewwyn, Psilly

Then I moved onto Jabbz, (4-1-2)
Adrien moved towards DP (3-1-3)
and finally DP onto Jabbz.(4-0-3)

Now that I am home and checking your checking, I'm confused. I think we are in fact saying the same thing. I did say that Psilly moved to DP after the Jabbz self-vote, and I agree with your numbers. The chart I put up was what scum could calculate would happen AFTER an inevitable preservation vote frmo DP:

Jabbz (5) - Gazglum, Adrien, Psilly, Jabbz, DP
Lewwyn (1) - Rowain
DP (1) - Lewwyn

So faced with that likely possibiltiy, ScumPsilly could switch and still expect to see this at deadline:

Jabbz (4) - Gazglum, Adrien, Jabbz, DP
DP (2) - Lewwyn, Psilly
Lewwyn (1) - Rowain

For DP to hang, Jabbz would have to self-preserve, but that only brings it to a tie. And in that situation, you had indicated by your posts that you were likely to come down on JAbbz if you couldn't get Lewwyn traction. And Adrien and me had not said much to suggest that we would move off our target, and a Jabbz self-preservation vote after his noble stand would have probably just cemented us onto him.

It would be a gamble for ScumPsilly to move to DP, but I think a clever and calculated risk. The votes to kill DP did not look easy to get. Psilly mischaracterises the situation to say that he left Jabbz with the deciding vote, he needed two votes to move to guarantee DP's death.