Turn 34
Really interesting turn.
So, I checked the civic screen and noticed something intriguing.
Archduke researched a tier 3 civic. I immediately checked his borders to see if they had solidified. Seeing that they hadn't I was about to chalk is up as State Workforce when I had another thought:
Someone is very determined to avoid a repeat of PBEM1. I bet he's been anxiously checking the GP screen/the civics screen every turn to see if I was pursuing Sun Tzu. This also makes the barb camp that he likely sniped from Singaboy all the more critical, as it enabled this.
So, this is Archduke's plan. He's going to leverage Plato's Republic into a practically guranteed first GG. He may be doing it purely for denial, but it seems more logical to assume he intends to attack someone with it.
The countdown now begins, he should get it on t63 or a little sooner if he gets into Classical Republic or builds an encampment in the interim.
So, I now have a checklist to meet by t65-t70. I assume he's going to go after Singaboy, but that's not something I can count on. I will need to be ready to defend Schuyler. So, that checklist.
By t65-70, I need
- That iron mined and in my borders
- Iron Working researched
- Schuyler's encampment completed
- Enough gold to upgrade at least 1 warrior
If I have met all these conditions, which I anticipate being able to do, I should be rush proof.
On the plus side, this reduces the chance that I will need to face an ancient era rush from him against Schuyler, as even if he makes the decision that he needs the city, he will likely defer until he has the GG for a higher chance of success. With this in mind, it's more likely I can take Buenos Aires.
I will say, however, Archduke really needs to make this move pay off or he's going to be slightly crippled going into the mid-game. My side quest to Mysticism was completely funded by my Civ ability, and I'm still likely to be 1st or 2nd to political philosophy due to the combination of continued use of Thermopylae on Hong Kong and my early monument.
However, even with that coffee, he has had significantly less disposable culture than me or Woden. This detour will probably cost him about 10 turns on getting to Political Philosophy - that's a lot of benefits missed. That being said, the payoff is potentially enormous. We'll see how it pays off for him. I'm tickled we both developed similar opening plans and went for the great people on opposite sides of the tree though.
The end of the turn and moving of my trader revealed a Greek scout east of Hamilton between the city and Seoul. My second slinger is coming out next turn, so he won't be unharried if he attempts to pillage my resource tiles, but he will likely be able to pillage the trade route if he so desires. I was honestly really surprised that his scout appeared over to see it there - it means he likely looped this scout all the way around Singaboy in a counterclockwise oval. I will be pretty annoyed if he does, but at least it would help me establish what our relationship is going to be this game. I still don't think he knows where Schuyler is. I'm hoping, however, that he makes the choice to rush Singaboy, why might he be more inclined to do that?
Kudos to Singaboy, he snuck this one up on me. He must have produced the settler the same turn he grew. I would have settled the city 1 west to not waste the stone and get the iron in the first ring, saving him the trouble of purchasing the tile, but I imagine there were other resources out in the fog/other considerations.
Archduke is now effectively boxed in. There is no room for a city between Athens and Schuyler, and only room for a dry city between Athens and Frankfurt. He can push to get the wines location, but it will be wedged between me and Singaboy and pretty indefensible.
Now, it does seem we're all closer to each other than we are to the edges of the continent. I have a backline to the north, Singaboy probably to the east and south, and Archduke probably to the west and south (all this based on my limited map knowledge). So, he likely won't be screwed on land. On the other hand, Athens is now effectively his front line city. He can never slack on military, or Athens will fall first in any invasion from me or Singaboy and he'll be in big trouble.
Archduke will be last to a second city, but he definitely has a settler out, so I imagine we'll see one soon. The other four of us got out second cities in a 4 turn period from 30-34. I wonder if his settler was heading east...
Frankfurt is building a monument first.
It's notable that none of us have met Alhmabram or Woden yet. My notion that this Pangaea is roughly divided into two subcontinents with difficult access between them is looking more and more likely. This may be a trouble if it comes down between me and Woden, and I need to attack him to prevent a Chinese win. However, that's a long way in the future, and at present, I have two close neighbors who are significantly more credible threats.
Archduke probably finished Bronze Working as well. If he has iron nearby, he can guarantee access to it with his second city.
Finally, domestic news.
Still continuing the mobilization and moving units towards Hong Kong. There is a barb scout just north of the city. I took a quick detour to explore the end of the river with my northern warrior. Not that awesome city location I marked. There's a wheat and two flood plains in a triangle for a great feudalism farm, made that much better if I get OLORAM. I may move this city up the settling order in front of the cities of lower Hamiltonia. It appears I've just about found the end of the peninsula, so maybe no tundra to farm barbs on. There is at least one camp though
Speaking of farming though, I now know the size of Hong Kong's military: 2 warriors and an archer, AKA, 27 culture
Joking aside, that is a respectable military, and it guarantees my campaign won't be a simple cakewalk. Nevertheless, with 6 units to 3 and a city, I'm still anticipating victory.