Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[kjn]

So You did buy appropriate tile? I see that Schuyler's encampment was planned outside Your current borders...

I believe that's the encampment for the city by the Wishbone mountains. Schuyler's encampment is on the hill west-southwest of Schuyler, if I read the screenshot right.

[Zero_1627]

So You did buy appropriate tile? I see that Schuyler's encampment was planned outside Your current borders...

I believe that's the encampment for the city by the Wishbone mountains. Schuyler's encampment is on the hill west-southwest of Schuyler, if I read the screenshot right.

I missed that, thanks!

[oledavy]

After a momentous turn 49, it was a placid turn 50 

Turn 50



You know, I talked myself into thinking this was too convoluted of a possibility. I knew Archduke had a warrior healing in his capital, but I thought it was significantly more likely he had moved it out and finished a horseman than left it there for two more turns and moved a warrior into the encampment. Occam's Razor did not hold true here. While we're at it, let's do our regular Archduke power check-in.



You know, his GG is being born just a few turns from now. It seems I've been continually worrying about an attack that still has yet to materialize. I'm not sure that he's built a single unit since t43. 

I'm beginning to doubt any aggressive designs at all. Still, better safe than sorry. 



I couldn't kill the scout with the archer in Schuyler, so I finished it off with the archer around Hamilton. However, yet another scout from an as yet unmet camp appeared in the north. 



I don't think I can afford to go clear the camp in Death Valley right now. I definitely can't spare the military to find the camp that spawned that scout at present. 

So yeah, what else... My military is healing up around Hong Kong or moving south. The captured builder repaired the pillaged farm, then will be heading to pasture the horses, arriving there one turn after the city is settled. Hamilton started on a trader. Instead of finishing HBR, I queued up the wheel. I've decided I'm going to chop out a Watermill in Hamilton after the trader. The WM will give me the Eureka for Construction, finishing the research of which will give me the Inspiration for Games and Recreation. I will almost certainly be completing Drama and Poetry before finishing Petra, however, so no free culture there. I've been beginning to look at what a beeline to Machinery would look like. Crossbows would be huge. 

Switched to Walls in Schuyler, finished the quarry. The big question is what other civic to I want to swap for Colonization next turn. I was all but set on the +2 gpt from trade routes one, but I'm vaguely considering Charismatic Leader. There might be something to be said for putting my first envoy in Hattusa, then putting my second in Carthage to become its suzerain. I'll make up my mind next turn when I finish military tradition. I'm nearing the point in the game where I can't hit every Eureka and Inspiration, but with proper planning, I can still land many of them. 

Internationally, I think Alhambram has a third city. 

The question now is, do I think I can be greedy to nab Buenos Aires with Archduke next door 

[Zero_1627]

The question now is, do I think I can be greedy to nab Buenos Aires with Archduke next door 

Go for it!

If Archduke has a military spike, You may abandon attack until the last moment. If not, You should be able to take Bueanos Aires before meaningful reaction from Archduke - and Your army will be close just in case, unlike with Hong Kong . Worst case, You abandon attack and redirect at Archduke - AI-led BA forces shouldn't be able to meaningfully pursue, I think, so You may more or less safely leave them to the side.
Possibly worst problem I foresee would be if BA manages to put up walls in time.

So risk isn't all that high... And possible rewards are fresh, developed city (without paying for settler), experience for troops and some extra culture (it's always highly cultural to knock somebody flat, isn't it? ).

EDIT: second choice would be to redirect military to farming XP and Culture on barb camps which seem to be plentiful nearby (and protection for new city in Wishbones, which You could found in this case), but it seems somehow wasteful - Your military is locally dominant at this moment, but not enough to strike at another player. Taking BA seems to be the best use for such advantage.

Just keep up in military technologies not to be caught flat without ability to upgrade, fortify Schuyler at first opportunity, and keep some money handy for an upgrade or two - and You should be fine. (also: see Famous Last Words )

[oledavy]

Turn 51

Continued moving forces south this turn, and moving them as if I might attack BA. My westermost warrior is moving in a westward loop to check out some of the land northwest of BA before approaching the city for the attack. 

Anyway, finished military tradition.  



This should make my units more efficient in combat around BA. Went ahead and changed governments. 



Decided on Charismatic Leader, as it will still a few turns yet before I get my trade route back out, and it won't be too long until I finish Games and Entertainment and can switch into it. So, I might as well take advantage of some extra influence points in the interim. I think I'm going to try and slot in diplomatic league, get 2 envoys with Hattusa, then sink my second generated envoy into Carthage - which should nicely coincide with about the time I finish Schuyler's encampment. 

I'm wondering if the barb camp is on this, the only fogged tile close by in the north: 



I may be able to detail a warrior over to check before I head south. 

I really want to get a couple scouts out and start exploring again. I'd ideally like to send one west and one northeast, and map out the rest of the continent. I have a little exploring to do on the peninsula to my north, but it looks like I've almost found the full extent of it with the discovery of Carthage. 

One thing of note: Woden met a city-state this turn. Considering it's the first one in an eon, it might be by a distant scouting unit (or a Carthage-esque hidden CS). In the former event, I'm going to be keeping watch around Hattusa and BA just in case we're about to make contact at long last.

[oledavy]

Turn 52

The end is near my friends. 



There can be no mistaking it, no jumping at shadows this time. That is a sword upgrade. And since both cities aren't 41 strength, that means he moved both warriors garrisoning them out, one last turn, one this turn. In all likelihood, they're located on the coffee tile and the tile northeast of Mykenes. 

If they're there and they both head my way immedietly, the initial assault will arrive on on t55. His GG is still 4/5 turns out, so he may wait a little longer though. 

Currently, two archers stand ready around Schuyler. An additional 2 will assume their defensive positions and be ready to fire on t55, just in time to get a first shot in at an army on the riverbanks. The walls will complete on t57, and the horseman should complete on t60 or so. 

Or maybe he's going after Singaboy 

Things are definitely about to get very interesting though. With four archers and the river though, I think I can hold off the initial assault. By t60, my position should be impregnable. 

No though, major international news this turn. 



We have contact! Since he met both about the same time, it was probably Singaboy's scout, which means Alhambram and Woden are almost certainly off to the east. Woden met another city-state at the end of the turn, which I thought meant he may have encountered the Seoul/Hattusa pair over the last couple turns. However, looking around Seoul revealed no Woden scout. No though, since he met both about the same time, they're probably close together too. 

Anyway, I look foward to meeting them, and having a more complete picture of the metagame. 




Alhambram finished a Lavra abroad, and I can now confirm took Divine Spark as his Pantheon. Looks like he wants to prioritize religion this game. His power continues to exceed mine. 

Exciting times ahead. 

[Zero_1627]

so it seems Buenos Aires will remain independent for now...

[oledavy]

so it seems Buenos Aires will remain independent for now...

So it probably will. Although, who knows, I've been jumping at shadows for quite a few turns now. I realize now much of my paranoia over the last 9 turns was largely unfounded, I continually could not do basic math in looking at the strengths of Archduke's cities. Now, however, it seems quite a bit more grounded. 

While it is still quite possible that there is not an attack coming. I thought it worth my time today to run some scenarios based on the t55 attack possibility. 

Assumptions: 

Attack Force: 2 Swordsmen, 2 Archers
Schuyler Strength: 20 (10 Base + 5 Archer + 5 River Defense). 

It's extremely unlikely Archduke can put the city under siege, so I will guaranteed 20 health regeneration each turn. The addition of the walls on t57 is the date I need the city to survive until. While walls don't guarantee the city's survival, they will make a continued assault extremely difficult. 

Two archers will be in place to assault his forces as they stage on t54. All four will be able to fire upon his army on t55. 

So, let's assume for a second, I don't attack with archers before he launches the initial assault, just to get a baseline (I can get in 6 attacks before he does this). 

A 36 str. swordsman attacking a 20 health city center will do approximately 60 damage and take 15 in return. 
A 8 ranged strength archer attacking a 20 strength city center, I don't know how to calculate, but using my attack on Hong Kong as a model, will do approximately 15 damage. 

So, this means over the period of t55/t56 Archduke can do around 300 damage against the 220 the city can sustain. This model doesn't account for the decreasing combat strengths of the swords and city-center, but realistically, I just need a ballpark figure. 

However, what's notable is that during this time, my archers can attack 10 times. The issue is I don't know how to calculate how much damage they can do to Swordsmen, so I'm going to guess the number is in the 10-20 ballpark. This means realistically, counting approximately 30 damage they would take from attacking the city center on t55, my damage output would be 130-230 over the same period. So, in sum, I think I am more than capable of fending of an attack with the forces I have in the area. 


However, if he has an additional sword or archer, things get a lot dicier, so I've been considering safer plans. 

For one, I can buy the forest tile my culture won't acquire until t57, and chop the walls to completion a turn sooner. This delays the completition of the horseman significantly however, and I would prefer not to do. 

This last turn, I had the option of chopping the forest at Hamilton for 47 hammers, which would have easily completed the trader. I decided to hold off, partially in case I need to chop out an emergency unit, partially because I was not sure chops applied properly to overflow or got their hammers modified. 

Ran a test game, and it turns out, overflow does apply properly, and they are modified by Civics like Agoge. I also suspect that multiplied hammers of overflow don't get reduced if the subsequent build does not have the same production boost, but that's something to explore another day. 

This means I played sub-optimally by not chopping out the settler, but it gives me options here. If I'm not worried about an attack, I should just chop out a watermill as originally planned and start a horseman after it. However, if I want to be extremely safe and guarantee Schuyler does not fall, I should chop out a heavy chariot next turn. 

It would insta-complete it (49 X 1.5 = 74/65), so I could even start moving it towards the front. Most importantly, however, it would bring Schuyler up to 28 strength (18 base + 5 + 5). A swordsman attacking that delivers 40 damage for 20 in return. That makes a  2 sword/2 archer attack laughably easy to fend off (210 Damage delivered and 70 damage sustained, without archers harassing them). 

The issue is, I should realistically make this decision next turn, to minimize potential yields lost by not chopping out the trader, but I won't know if the assault is coming until my turn 54. So, next turn, I get to make the choice, do I want to play it close to the chest and funnel overflow into a watermill, or play it safe and chop out a heavy chariot. I probably have a couple hours to mull it over.

[oledavy]

District Plan: Hamilton (5), Schuyler (3), Hong Kong (3), Lafayette (3). 



My industrial district in Hamilton will reach to 6 of my core cities with the factory bonus, pretty good in my book, while still retaining a +5 adjacency bonus.

[Zero_1627]

Assumptions: 
(...)
A 36 str. swordsman attacking a 20 health city center 

His city is str41 on screenshot (and district 31) - which points to Str41 unit.

36 base, +5 GG, +some Oligarchy - bonuses You should expect?

also: why Str8 for Archer?...

also: where is Lafayette?

I also suspect that multiplied hammers of overflow don't get reduced if the subsequent build does not have the same production boost, but that's something to explore another day.

consider it confirmed, overflow is not affected in any way by next build. (PBEM 1 Sulla)

it would bring Schuyler up to 28 strength (18 base + 5 + 5)

Wrong assumption. Unit in city does not give any 'bonus' - just replaces the base if unit str is higher.
So str10 city with 15 Str archer in it is Str 15. Str 18 city with archer is still str 18. (PBEM 1 Sulla)

EDIT: bonus question: when unit defends in city, is damage dealt split between unit and city?