Turn 56
Strap on your seatbelts everyone because I have a doozy of a turn for you.
So, opened the turn and did my usual check of the jungle southwest of Schuyler.
Nothing. Got the Mercenaries Inspiration for having 8 units in my military.
That's when I noticed:
That's an attack force. It seems Seoul's time has come.
I puzzled over this for a long time.
On the one hand, I have bigger problems to my southwest. On the other, if Singaboy takes Seoul, the path is wide open to Hamilton and my campus. I'm not even positive this force isn't coming for Hamilton. Seoul simply can't be in his hands if my borders are to be secure. While I wouldn't mind him taking it and me retaking it, there's no guarantee I can do that before he throws walls up. Also, it would probably be better to fight alongside Korean forces rather than have them be consumed and then have to take on the Germans on my own.
In sum, I'm planning to intervene if necessary on behalf of my suzerain.
Then, the other shocker of the turn. I was just toodling along with my warrior moving it towards the far riverbank of the river northwest of BA when....
HI PONY.
So, first off, that's why I couldn't find Archduke's iron in the trade screen - because he doesn't have any....
I still imagine he bought at least one horseman for all that gold to disappear. No though, I assumed it had to be swordsmen because swordsmen are 36 strength and horsemen are 35 according to the online wiki (and his cities indicated it was a 36 str. unit). Turns out, the online wiki is wrong!
Let's mouseover this unit...
Yep, that's a support bonus. There's likely one horse behind it. He may be setting up to attack Buenos Aires, but I think it's far more likely he was trying to sneak these into my back line to attack Lafayette/Hong Kong. I can't know for sure. If he wanted to attack BA, I imagine he would have asked for peace. But, attacking the city makes a lot more sense for him and is more beneficial to his empire than taking Hong Kong/Schuyler - especially if he had locked me into a peace deal. Either way, he should show his hand this turn.
I will come back to this and the situation around Seoul in a moment. For now, I'm going to complete my round-up.
The camp spat out another scout. Two of my archers stayed behind to dispatch it. I'm actually worried that if I leave one archer here, another scout may appear and pillage the trade route before I can kill it. I would love to disperse the encampment, but obviously I have other things on my plate at the moment. The greatest thing about this scout, however, is that it took two hits to kill, one from each archer (which were both at 12 XP), and now both can promote next turn.
In the north, The barb camp was attacked again by Carthage down to a sliver. I don't think I can beat the CS to clearing the camp, but I moved my warrior up there closer to it anyway - a move I came to regret when I found Archduke's horses.
With double pop growths this turn, I passed Woden in culture for the first time:
Also, Singaboy finished currency and locked in a couple commercial districts.
This probably means he's not looking for a knock down drag out war right now, although his power is quite respectable.
Okay, so what does all this mean.
Known Player Forces:
Singaboy: 132 Power
Seoul Attack Force: 1 Swordsman, 2 Archers (86 Power)
Unaccounted For Singaboy Forces: 46 Power (1 Sword? +)
Archduke: 162 Power
Archduke Western Raiding Force: 2 Horsemen (72 Power)
Likely Force Around Mykenes: 1 Horseman, 2 Archers (86 Power)
My best guess is that Archduke is intending to use his initial two horsemen as a distraction force, and launch a frontal assault on Schuyler with his Great General when it pops next turn, with his horsemen, 2 archers, and a newly produced horseman or two.
Singaboy is likely just trying to take Seoul. However, I'm very concerned that once he takes the city, he will keep marching and attack Hamilton and King's College. If he sees Archduke is assaulting me, and he already has military in the area, he will undoubtedly take advantage of the situation and try to bring me down. At this point, since he's set on taking Seoul, it's less a question of 'if' and more a question of 'when.'
So, we're likely to be in war mode for the near future. Hamilton is going to complete it's watermill first, as that build is gating a bunch of free culture and science in Construction and Games and Recreation (Getting both of which will speed me to Defensive Tactics). Petra is on hold indefinitely until things stabilize. There is an excellent chance, depending on how his horseman moves, that I will need to start horsemen in Schuyler, Hamilton, and Hong Kong next turn to lock them in before I lose access to both resources. I'm also considering chopping out a horseman in Schuyler next turn instead of walls, as I could use the other unit. However, if he's attacking the city within ~6 turns, I just need to rush the walls. I almost certainly won't be finishing the encampment any time soon. I am going to hold onto my 1 charge builder around Lafayette for now, in case I need to repair the pasture.
Here's my current force allocation:
OleDavey: 196 Power
Seoul Covering Force: 1 Horseman
Lafayette Defensive Force: 2 Archers, 2 Warriors (Not organized, around the area).
Schuyler Defensive Force: 2 Archers
Northern Barb Clearing Force: 1
Here's what I'm doing on each front with each army:
Seoul Covering Force
I moved it to the critical tile where Singaboy can't see me, I'm out of range of his archers, and I can attack his swordsman next turn when it kills Seoul's archer. The sword is the most critical unit to his attack, and damaging it will at least delay his conquest. I don't think I can actually hold him off with one horseman, but tactical application of my unit might buy quite a bit of time for Seoul, time to heal and get in free archer shots from the city center. It does help that the city is on a hill and boosted 4 strength by my envoys. I don't know how much that matters when it's Germany we're talking about though. The sword is also ideal to hit because it already has one promotion, that means any health I take off it stays off, and neither tier one promotion helps against mounted units. The key thing will be to make sure I don't leave my horseman somewhere he can kill it next turn. If I can't, I will withdraw.
Lafayette Defensive Force
Assuming his assault lands around the city, I'm very confident in my ability to hold him off. He does have maneuver on me, so it's important I prevent him from reaching the deserts and plains west of the Mulligan River. I want to defend the horse tile if I can, but he will get a first strike on my westernmost warrior next turn, which means I will probably have to withdraw behind the river. My two archers should easily prevent the city from falling though.
Barb Clearing Force
Moving south to cover the southwestern approaches the Hong Kong. A little too far away to take part in the initial fight though.
Schuyler Defensive Force
I'm never going to leave the city without a "+10 for being in a district" promoted archer in it at all times. The second one....idk. I will leave it here, flex it toward Hamilton, or move it towards Lafayette depending on what the situation looks like.
Priority as far as continued military production is getting out more horsemen. Fortunately, I can produce them in 3 turns from Hamilton. So, as long as I maintain access to horse, I'm set. If not, things get a little dicier.
Bastions and Limes will be pretty big when I get them. I am also strongly leaning towards beelining machinery at this point to guarantee my borders.
No though, in sum, about to be on the receiving end of a GG reinforced attack from Archduke and Singaboy threatening me from the east. Let's get to work