Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

Assumptions: 
(...)
A 36 str. swordsman attacking a 20 health city center 

His city is str41 on screenshot (and district 31) - which points to Str41 unit.

36 base, +5 GG, +some Oligarchy - bonuses You should expect?

also: why Str8 for Archer?...

also: where is  Lafayette?

I also suspect that multiplied hammers of overflow don't get reduced if the subsequent build does not have the same production boost, but that's something to explore another day.

consider it confirmed, overflow is not affected in any way by next build. (PBEM 1 Sulla)

it would bring Schuyler up to 28 strength (18 base + 5 + 5)

Wrong assumption. Unit in city does not give any 'bonus' - just replaces the base if unit str is higher.
So str10 city with 15 Str archer in it is Str 15. Str 18 city with archer is still str 18.  (PBEM 1 Sulla)

EDIT: bonus question: when unit defends in city, is damage dealt split between unit and city?

He doesn't have a str. 41 unit. His capital gets +3 strength for the palace and +2 strength for having completed a district. That's where the extra numbers are coming from. 

I didn't factor in a potential general oligarchy bonus because I was simming an attack that happens ASAP and doesn't wait for the general. 

Lafayette will be founded on the river to the west, between HK and BA. 

No, if a unit defends a city, all damage goes to the city. 

Thanks for the heads up on city-strength, I didn't realize it was only up to a cap - I thought all units would give a flat bonus (10 for melee, 5 for ranged). That's very helpful to know.

[oledavy]

Turn 53 - Turn 54

Every turn now, my camera is flying to the jungle between Archduke and I to check for an invasion force. 

I played turn 53 in a couple minutes last night, so I only have one shot from it. 



No units, but Archduke definitely upgraded. If he was rushing me, the units would move in on his t53 and be visible to me for the first time on t54. I took a deep breath. 





Okay, we're good to go now. His attack can't beat the completion of walls and a horseman. Even with Oligarchy and a general, I'm not too scared of him at this point.

Meanwhile, Singaboy saw the way the winds were blowing, and upgraded his military as well. 



Archduke may yet attack him, but it would probably be a bad idea from a metagaming perspective. Singaboy's stuff, however, is more vulnerable, and taking Frankfurt turns off the tap for more swordsmen. Hell, if he can just pillage the tile Singaboy is in a lot of trouble. I would keep a unit fortified on that tile 24/7 were I him. 

Speaking of. 



He finished Frankfurt's monument!

Still no contact with Woden/Alhambram.



A camp spawned northwest of Hong Kong. I detailed one of my now healed warriors to kill it. It's a little too close for comfort, the gold and culture will be welcome, and the warrior can't make it to Schuyler in a quick time frame, so this will be the best use of it's time. A horseman will be coming out in a couple turns so I have a third melee unit for attacking BA. 

Next turn, 4th city!

[oledavy]

Turn 55

You ever have a turn where everything comes together beautifully? This was one of those. 

First of all, let's check out things internationally. 



Archduke finally surpassed me in power. 162 to 158. Singaboy's power also continued to rise. I estimate Archduke has 2 archers and 3 swords at present, but I really should find the power formula to confirm that supposition. 



I can't see Archduke's iron? Is that a bug, or am I missing something fundamental here? In any event, all his gold is gone, and he's now breaking even or losing gold due to unit upkeep. I'm guessing he does not have Conscription in place. He's going to have to do something with that military soon to make it pay for itself. 



Singaboy got a 1/2/0 trade route going from Ulm to A-A-Chen. Also note his archer in the top right of the frame. I don't know where it's going. 

No though, so, let's get to the good part now: 

Step 1: Settle Lafayette. 



Step 2: Buy horse tile and pasture horse:



Step 3: Queue up horseman, and chop. 



48 hammer chop, multiplied by 50%, and we have 72/80 hammers into that horse, as indicated in the top right. It'll complete next turn, the walls after that, and I'll be relatively secure from attack.   We've almost made it through the scary period, and are close to being able to feel safe again. In the next few turns, I can begin an assault on BA if I so choose, although that may bring Archduke in like a vulture. We'll give it a few turns and see where things stand. 

The other fun thing I got to do this turn:



My empire is looking less like a couple cities and increasingly like a respectable polity these days. 



Next up! Finishing districts, surviving a potential invasion, starting Petra, and seeking to conquer Buenos Aires.

[Zero_1627]

power calculation: if I understand correcly, it's just sum of Str of all units, no arcane equations involved. Just keep in mind it's current Str, with damage taken into account.

[oledavy]

power calculation: if I understand correcly, it's just sum of Str of all units, no arcane equations involved. Just keep in mind it's current Str, with damage taken into account.

With ranged units its their ranged strength, right?

[Zero_1627]

power calculation: if I understand correcly, it's just sum of Str of all units, no arcane equations involved. Just keep in mind it's current Str, with damage taken into account.

With ranged units its their ranged strength, right?

I _think_ so   . You can sum up Your own units and check Your rating to make sure!

[oledavy]

power calculation: if I understand correcly, it's just sum of Str of all units, no arcane equations involved. Just keep in mind it's current Str, with damage taken into account.

With ranged units its their ranged strength, right?

I _think_ so   . You can sum up Your own units and check Your rating to make sure!

Confirmed. 

I'm going to guess he has 3 swords and 2 wounded archers at the moment, although that would still leave a little bit of power unaccounted for. Still, I'm comfortable ballparking it. 

It's been awhile since I posted this, I've updated it in the interim. 

[oledavy]

Turn 56

Strap on your seatbelts everyone because I have a doozy of a turn for you. 

So, opened the turn and did my usual check of the jungle southwest of Schuyler. 



Nothing. Got the Mercenaries Inspiration for having 8 units in my military. 

That's when I noticed: 



That's an attack force. It seems Seoul's time has come. 

I puzzled over this for a long time. 

On the one hand, I have bigger problems to my southwest. On the other, if Singaboy takes Seoul, the path is wide open to Hamilton and my campus. I'm not even positive this force isn't coming for Hamilton. Seoul simply can't be in his hands if my borders are to be secure. While I wouldn't mind him taking it and me retaking it, there's no guarantee I can do that before he throws walls up. Also, it would probably be better to fight alongside Korean forces rather than have them be consumed and then have to take on the Germans on my own. 

In sum, I'm planning to intervene if necessary on behalf of my suzerain. 

Then, the other shocker of the turn. I was just toodling along with my warrior moving it towards the far riverbank of the river northwest of BA when....



HI PONY. 

So, first off, that's why I couldn't find Archduke's iron in the trade screen - because he doesn't have any.... 

I still imagine he bought at least one horseman for all that gold to disappear. No though, I assumed it had to be swordsmen because swordsmen are 36 strength and horsemen are 35 according to the online wiki (and his cities indicated it was a 36 str. unit). Turns out, the online wiki is wrong!

Let's mouseover this unit...



Yep, that's a support bonus. There's likely one horse behind it. He may be setting up to attack Buenos Aires, but I think it's far more likely he was trying to sneak these into my back line to attack Lafayette/Hong Kong. I can't know for sure. If he wanted to attack BA, I imagine he would have asked for peace. But, attacking the city makes a lot more sense for him and is more beneficial to his empire than taking Hong Kong/Schuyler - especially if he had locked me into a peace deal. Either way, he should show his hand this turn.

I will come back to this and the situation around Seoul in a moment. For now, I'm going to complete my round-up. 

 

The camp spat out another scout. Two of my archers stayed behind to dispatch it. I'm actually worried that if I leave one archer here, another scout may appear and pillage the trade route before I can kill it. I would love to disperse the encampment, but obviously I have other things on my plate at the moment.  The greatest thing about this scout, however, is that it took two hits to kill, one from each archer (which were both at 12 XP), and now both can promote next turn. 

In the north, The barb camp was attacked again by Carthage down to a sliver. I don't think I can beat the CS to clearing the camp, but I moved my warrior up there closer to it anyway - a move I came to regret when I found Archduke's horses. 

With double pop growths this turn, I passed Woden in culture for the first time: 



Also, Singaboy finished currency and locked in a couple commercial districts. 



This probably means he's not looking for a knock down drag out war right now, although his power is quite respectable. 

Okay, so what does all this mean. 

Known Player Forces: 

Singaboy: 132 Power
Seoul Attack Force: 1 Swordsman, 2 Archers  (86 Power)
Unaccounted For Singaboy Forces: 46 Power (1 Sword? +)

Archduke: 162 Power
Archduke Western Raiding Force: 2 Horsemen (72 Power)
Likely Force Around Mykenes: 1 Horseman, 2 Archers (86 Power)


My best guess is that Archduke is intending to use his initial two horsemen as a distraction force, and launch a frontal assault on Schuyler with his Great General when it pops next turn, with his horsemen, 2 archers, and a newly produced horseman or two. 

Singaboy is likely just trying to take Seoul. However, I'm very concerned that once he takes the city, he will keep marching and attack Hamilton and King's College. If he sees Archduke is assaulting me, and he already has military in the area, he will undoubtedly take advantage of the situation and try to bring me down. At this point, since he's set on taking Seoul, it's less a question of 'if' and more a question of 'when.'

So, we're likely to be in war mode for the near future. Hamilton is going to complete it's watermill first, as that build is gating a bunch of free culture and science in Construction and Games and Recreation (Getting both of which will speed me to Defensive Tactics). Petra is on hold indefinitely until things stabilize. There is an excellent chance, depending on how his horseman moves, that I will need to start horsemen in Schuyler, Hamilton, and Hong Kong next turn to lock them in before I lose access to both resources. I'm also considering chopping out a horseman in Schuyler next turn instead of walls, as I could use the other unit. However, if he's attacking the city within ~6 turns, I just need to rush the walls. I almost certainly won't be finishing the encampment any time soon. I am going to hold onto my 1 charge builder around Lafayette for now, in case I need to repair the pasture. 

Here's my current force allocation: 

OleDavey: 196 Power
Seoul Covering Force: 1 Horseman
Lafayette Defensive Force: 2 Archers, 2 Warriors (Not organized, around the area). 
Schuyler Defensive Force: 2 Archers
Northern Barb Clearing Force: 1

Here's what I'm doing on each front with each army: 

Seoul Covering Force

I moved it to the critical tile where Singaboy can't see me, I'm out of range of his archers, and I can attack his swordsman next turn when it kills Seoul's archer. The sword is the most critical unit to his attack, and damaging it will at least delay his conquest. I don't think I can actually hold him off with one horseman, but tactical application of my unit might buy quite a bit of time for Seoul, time to heal and get in free archer shots from the city center. It does help that the city is on a hill and boosted 4 strength by my envoys. I don't know how much that matters when it's Germany we're talking about though. The sword is also ideal to hit because it already has one promotion, that means any health I take off it stays off, and neither tier one promotion helps against mounted units. The key thing will be to make sure I don't leave my horseman somewhere he can kill it next turn. If I can't, I will withdraw. 

Lafayette Defensive Force

Assuming his assault lands around the city, I'm very confident in my ability to hold him off. He does have maneuver on me, so it's important I prevent him from reaching the deserts and plains west of the Mulligan River. I want to defend the horse tile if I can, but he will get a first strike on my westernmost warrior next turn, which means I will probably have to withdraw behind the river. My two archers should easily prevent the city from falling though. 

Barb Clearing Force

Moving south to cover the southwestern approaches the Hong Kong. A little too far away to take part in the initial fight though. 

Schuyler Defensive Force

I'm never going to leave the city without a "+10 for being in a district" promoted archer in it at all times. The second one....idk. I will leave it here, flex it toward Hamilton, or move it towards Lafayette depending on what the situation looks like. 

Priority as far as continued military production is getting out more horsemen. Fortunately, I can produce them in 3 turns from Hamilton. So, as long as I maintain access to horse, I'm set. If not, things get a little dicier. 

Bastions and Limes will be pretty big when I get them. I am also strongly leaning towards beelining machinery at this point to guarantee my borders. 

No though, in sum, about to be on the receiving end of a GG reinforced attack from Archduke and Singaboy threatening me from the east. Let's get to work 

[Zero_1627]

 I will need to start horsemen in Schuyler, Hamilton, and Hong Kong next turn to lock them in before I lose access to both resources.

Will You be able to complete them if You lose access? I'd expect they become unavailable...

I almost certainly won't be finishing the encampment any time soon. 

That will be additional Archer (immobile, but very durable) right on the front. I'd say completing the district+walls would give You strong asset in the critical region (as You initially planned).

EDIT: Without Encampment, losing one Horses (probable from Your description) disables Horsemen build - so having at least one Encampment seems to be very important as well!

EDIT2: Situation seems to deteriorate quickly... I'd even consider showing that Horseman near Seoul, if You can do that without inviting attack - perhaps a message You're ready to defend Your vassal right now would be enough for Singaboy to reconsider (...and perhaps not - especially as he knows You're engaged with Archduke... but You both had a military buildup for some time without taking serious losses, so he may not expect things are going to hit the fan right now).
Seriously damaging Swordsman from surprise attack and forcing a delay on him seems better course of action indeed! (perhaps Seoul Archers will finish off damaged Swordsman?... Wishful thinking, but possible...)

EDIT3: You seem to actually be in very good long-term economic position - IF You can hold both Lafayette and Schuyler (and Seoul with second priority). So mass-producing army (but with defensive goals primarily) seems to be the order of the day!

[Zero_1627]

Archduke: 162 Power
Archduke Western Raiding Force: 2 Horsemen (72 Power)
Likely Force Around Mykenes: 1 Horseman, 2 Archers (86 Power)

Assuming Western Raiding force is indeed 2 Horsemen (very probable I'd say), Power unaccounted for is exactly 90. 86 on Your match doesn't fit. As this number is very 'round', I think another Horseman is unlikely ('6' ending just doesn't fit). What about 2 Archers and 2 Warriors? Both fitting and, I think, probable - would explain what happened to Archduke's Warriors from earlier age .

EDIT: if Archduke thinks he has enough time, he may actually have sent most of his forces around BA hoping to surprise You - in which case You would be hit by 1-2 Horsemen supported by Archers there... But then he would have to forfeit GG support for his main force?...

He might also try to go _through_ BA (with entire army massed and GG support he should be able to do so before You react) and only then 'overflow' into Your territory - especially as he didn't know about Lafayette when setting this up and it's quite a distance towards Schuyler when going around BA.

Or he could just want to pillage while Your forces are tied at the front