Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[srgtb]

I believe so but haven't tested the numbers myself.

In Sulla's screenshots his gpt went from 45ish to 57ish then back to 46 when he ran the commercial project which is 30% of the production cost. It cost him about 135 production over 4 turns. 30% of 135 is 40.5 so 10 gpt. His gpt was fluctuating at the time as units were lost. So I think the math checks out.

[oledavy]

I have two turns to report upon, and quite a bit here to reply to, but I wanted to briefly talk about the biggest international event of the last few turns. 

Archduke burned Frankfurt 

That was just painful to see happen. I understand why Archduke did it, and I think it was the logical move. I would be pretty depressed and angry if I was Singaboy right now. Player to player, I feel very bad for him at the moment - especially because he's played a generally very strong game. 

I'm just so surprised this actually happened. I wonder why he didn't dedicate more to protecting it. Perhaps he was caught completely off guard. I don't understand why he's put such an emphasis on defending Seoul. Since the start of the war, I've encountered: 

3 Archers
2 Swordsmen
2 Horsemen
1 Heavy Chariot

For a whopping 247 of the approximate 350 combat strength he had at the start of the war. I know he's been building the entire time, but that still represents at least half and probably more of the entire military he's possessed over the course of the conflict. Maybe I've been slated as the player to be dragged down and he's not fighting as hard against Archduke? Maybe he didn't understand the power of GGs. I won't know for sure for awhile

Either way, whenever you read this Singaboy 

Rough break, and I'm sorry for my part in it. I don't like seeing players put out of the game, and I never imagined that this conflict would be the one to bring you down.

[oledavy]

Turns 84-85

Very little domestic news of note these last couple turns. It's been the grindhouse of war. Singaboy is making me fight for every tile around Seoul. 



I was surprised he could kill that heavy chariot. If I had done the math, I might have realized the danger posed by 2 horsemen + 1 City attack + 2 flanking bonuses. 

This doubly hurts because that unit was to be upgraded into a knight for the next war. 

What's more, there are now two more archers inbound and as moving will later reveal, another chariot to their west. The Priority here was dispatching the archers and protecting my archers and the battering ram. 



I was pretty happy with that outcome. Coursers is very strong in this situation. I expected him to attack out and kill my sword or horse. He chose the horse. 



I collapsed my forces back to kill his horse in turn, viewable in this screenshot.



I don't think he can kill anything on t85, although he can probably critically wound something. My horse and sword west of the city are under the most threat. My hoplite will eat a ton of damage from his sword if it attacks (48 to 39). It's made worse when you realize he can attack with the city first, and the Hoplite is one of the more favorable targets in that regard. Still, it would involve him sallying forth and trading units again. I expect right now his objective is reaching a promotion on both units. 

This is a nail-biter, and it's looking increasingly like I may not have enough units to take the city. Losing a couple units was expected, but I thought two things: 

1. I would have been able to begin my assault on the city two turns sooner
2. There would not be this many units rallying to its defense

As things stand, the pillaging of the Korean Highway delayed me by two turns, and he's brought 7 units to defend the city as opposed to the 4-5 I expected. All this is adding up to potentially critically tip the scales against me. It's on a knife's edge right now, and I long for one more melee unit or archer. In hindsight, if I had noticed the pillaging of the road, I may have brought another unit to the fight. My mistake for not looking at the map more closely. 

Kudos to Singaboy for fighting so well. I am a bit annoyed because this defense apparently came at the expense of Frankfurt, but maybe that city was indefensible and he could hold me off by comparison. That would make his decision to invest so much into the city's defense more logical. It's just frustrating for me since I was hoping to capture the city and swing my science back into being more competitive with Woden. I thought I was in the 'Signaboy' position in this dogpile, but it seems that perhaps Archduke delayed just long enough for Singaboy to get engrossed fighting me and then hit him while he was distracted. Frustrating, but that was impossible to predict, and I got into this war knowing I might be going at it alone. 

Still, for a war fought with units that were about to become useless, I'm not unhappy. I've gotten 57 culture from it so far, almost 4 turns worth. I'm finally getting 50 science next turn from pillaging the mine, barring anything completely unexpected. Finally, I contributed to putting my local rival out of the running. Seoul is not as much of a threat to my defensive perimeter if Singaboy doesn't have enough military to pose a threat. 

Still, not taking the city will be a major blow to me, no matter how you slice it. We'll see what happens though, the war is not over yet 

For those keeping score, total losses to date: 

Me:
1 Horseman
1 Heavy Chariot

Singaboy: 
3 Archers
1 Swordsman
1 Horseman

If I have a critique of Singaboy as a warrior, it's that he keeps throwing his ranged away. He's allowed me to kill all three archers at a premium. The fact that I still have a chance to win this war is a testament to him continually allowing me to defeat him in detail. Still, I'm about out of units. I only need to lose 1-2 more melee units to become combat ineffective, and I fear that day will be here sooner rather than later. 

Regardless of the outcome, our war of maneuver, thrust, and parry around Seoul has been my favorite mental exercise of this game, even if I was making some of my moves at 4am   Well-played Singaboy. 

Elsewhere, before and after the fall of Frankfurt: 





Now the question is if Aachen is under threat. Instinct tells me that Singaboy can defend it, but I was wrong before...

I'll be pretty miffed, however, if Archduke rolls up and takes Aachen while Singaboy is still stonewalling me in Seoul. 

I imagine Archduke is going to resettle the Frankfurt location himself, and burned it because he believed he was never going to get Singaboy to cede it, and is not willing to fight this war to elimination. Unfortunately for him, since Singaboy can now no longer win the game, he just might keep fighting Archduke, run up war weariness, and force him to build military. 

Or he might do the same to me....I hope not. 

In the north, I found the scout again: 



I need to find him and kill him before he threatens my trade routes/settlers. 



Archduke finished a commercial hub. 

Finally, 



Woden continues to be terrifying. He's growing by leaps and bounds, and I'm worrying about my ability to keep pace with him by domestic development alone at this rate. 


Still no war between him and Alhamram.....really beginning to wonder what's going on over there.

[oledavy]

One final note, Alhambram and Singaboy are now in Oligarchy, and Archduke is in Autocracy.

[oledavy]

It gives you gold each turn it is worked but the GPP all are given when it completes.

From Sulla's pbem1 write up:

Cost = 25 * (1 + 14a)
GPP = 10 * (1 + 7a) [or 5 * for theater/carnival]
where a = max(techs/67, civics/50)

I believe so but haven't tested the numbers myself.

In Sulla's screenshots his gpt went from 45ish to 57ish then back to 46 when he ran the commercial project which is 30% of the production cost. It cost him about 135 production over 4 turns. 30% of 135 is 40.5 so 10 gpt. His gpt was fluctuating at the time as units were lost. So I think the math checks out.

Yep, that's my simplified version of the formula Sulla found. I ripped out the various places where it rounds the number, so round down whatever you get out.

Thank you to everyone who responded to my inquiry about the formula. I appreciate the assistance. 

I estimated that running the project right now would cost 112 hammers, give 28.2 GG points, and give me 17 gold. I went in game, and saw that it cost 116 hammers, so I think this is roughly correct. 

I did some quick back of envelope math on Operation El Cid that I may be posting later today. 

The simple reality now is even if I didn't want to go to war around turn 105, I need to deny El Cid to Archduke. With Singaboy effectively out of the running, Archduke will almost certainly get the next GG. He's already signalled his intent to do so by running Strategos. I shudder to think of Knights and Crossbows buffed by both Sun Tzu and El Cid. It would be extremely difficult to hold off, so it's critical for me to get El Cid to forestall that threat if nothing else. 

To that end, I will be building a barracks, armory, and running an encampment project in the coming turns. More on that later though.

Final aside: 

Thermopylae Update: 198 Culture  

[oledavy]

Turn 86

.....



Alhambram signed another DoF with Woden.

[tilt]

Sometimes multiplayer games are just headbangingly frustrating, and I forget how much of who wins and loses these things comes down purely to who your neighbor is. When I started running away with the game, my neighbors both immedietly dogpiled me and set me back. When Woden starts running away with things, his neighbor upgrades to having the most powerful military in the game, and then signs another DoF with him  



Now Woden just gets to build and tech in peace for another 30 turns, as if he needed any more time to do that. To round things out, Singaboy continues to fight me tooth and nail for a dry border city that was my suzerain to begin with when he just lost his second best city to Archduke. I'm having a lot of fun with this game, but I'm going to be extremely irritated if I lose because of my opponent's bad metagame decisions. I just don't understand what Alhambram is thinking. Does he think Woden is going to be less scary in 30 turns? 

It may be that he was planning all along on using his military to take city-states and nothing more: 



He took Vilnius last turn, I can only assume one of the cultural CS's that catapulted Woden to such an early lead. 

No though, I'm frustrated to say the least. This game is started to feel reminiscent of Civ5 PBEMs 1 & 2 for me, games where I thought I played very well, but had to concede before turn 100 because an opponent on the other side of the map had gotten sufficiently huge eating other players that they couldn't be stopped. Here, Woden is just getting this game handed to him on a silver platter, and there's very little I can do about it. 

My one consolation is that Woden already had to upgrade and invest in a more contemporary military, but I expect he will use it to kill one of the city-states in the west, so he will likely get a decent return on his investment. 

Just maddening. 

[/tilt]



As expected, Singaboy redlined a horse. His chariot has also re-appeared to cause me problems. 

I pillaged the mine and moved west of the city, bombarding it with archers. 



As this point, I can definitely feel my victory here slipping away. There's just too much military of his. I don't have enough, although who knows, that Hattusan swordsman coming in from the north may be enough to swing things. 

He's also in Bastions, making this city that much tougher. I thought about leaving my horseman on the mine and beginning my assault on the city this turn, but decided that would simply be inviting him to kill it - all it would have taken was a good damage roll for him

Hong Kong is suffering from significant war weariness already: 



It finished it's settler this turn, and now both are heading north. The one irritating thing is that there's a second barb scout wander around. It will take some clever movement and zoning with my archer on my part to make sure the settlers don't get captured. I may have to delay settling.

No though, frustrating turn. Between barbs in the north, Singaboy's continued spirited defense, and Alhambram's complaisance, things are not looking good for the Spartan Greeks.

[oledavy]

Turn 87



Alright Singaboy, I know when I've been beaten.

He completed a chariot archer out of city between turns and finished off my horseman. That brings my losses to 2 horseman and 1 heavy chariot. The forces in the area are now my  2 horsemen, 1 sword, 2 archers, and 1 Hoplite against 1 sword, 1 horse, 2 heavy chariots, and the city itself. I can't win against that. 

I'm tempted to move the goalposts and still claim the Second Korean War as a win, but it most certainly wasn't. I couldn't accomplish my primary war aim, ultimately the result of erroneously thinking I would be able to reach the city two turns sooner with my battering ram, and Singaboy deploying a 9 unit army to defend it instead of the 4-5 units I was expecting. I hope Seoul was worth more to you than Frankfurt Singaboy...

I can at least console myself in two facts: 

1. This war was a low opportunity cost to me, it took my existing military, much of which was about to go obsolete, and put it to use. My opportunity costs were: 
 - The hammers to complete the battering ram out of Schuyler.
 - Not having as much military to escort my settlers up north, possibly leading to 1-2 turn delays in settling depending on how things shake out up there.
2. Singaboy is now out of the running. 

Although, the second fact that may be more concerning than it is reassuring. I don't think he's damaged sufficiently to be no threat, but he almost certainly can't win the game. My saving grace here may be that he's more likely to go after Archduke, the destroyer of Frankfurt. If there is any "justice" in these games, my war feels extremely justified by comparison (attempting to retake my suzerain after an uprovoked war dec and the burning of King's College). He may not see it that way though. 

So, it will likely smolder on for another couple turns, but here is the current scoreboard of the Second Korean War: 

Dave: 
3 Archers Killed
1 Sword Killed
1 Horse Killed
50 science gained
57 culture gained
Regional rival effectively out of the running

However, this notably falls short of my aim of taking Seoul. 

Singaboy: 
1 Heavy Chariot Killed
2 Horses Killed
Seoul Defended
1 Mine Pillaged

I thought I was in Singaboy's position in this war, but Archduke appears he'll come out best in the long-run. He burned one city, opening up land for him the settle, and he's probably not done yet. 

I swear though, if Singaboy defended Seoul at the expense of Frankfurt AND Aachen, I'm going to go to the organizing thread and call bullshit. It hasn't come to that yet though. 

In sum, a disappointing war. What makes it worse is I think I could have prevailed with about 2 more units. I just didn't quite have enough to carry the siege at the end of the day, and while I don't come out worse from this war, it represents a huge missed opportunity to open up a lead on this game. 

Still, we'll see what the coming turns hold. Opportunity may yet knock again. 



Archduke finished walls in BA. He's still locked into peace with me until t105, however, so I'm not worried about him for the time being. As long as he doesn't get El Cid anyway....



My 6th and 7th cities will be settled on t90, barring any delays. They both have 4 food tiles to work at the start for a rocking start. I finished my first commercial hub this turn, and have two traders on the way. Each of these new cities will get a 2/2/2 trade route to Hamilton before long to supercharge their early growth. 



My army has begun its slow retreat in the right side of the frame. If I want to take Seoul, it's going to need to be with better units. If he pursues me, I might be able to get a couple more kills for more culture on the back end of this conflict. For now though, my goal is to take my remaining military and defend the approaches to Hamilton and King's College.

[Mardoc]

I swear though, if Singaboy defended Seoul at the expense of Frankfurt AND Aachen, I'm going to go to the organizing thread and call bullshit. It hasn't come to that yet though. 

Don't do that.  You did declare war first, that naturally means he deployed to face you. It doesn't look like many units could redeploy quickly.

[oledavy]

Turn 88

Alright, I've had some time to cool off. Let's get back to the task at hand. 

Next turn I will be eligible to make peace with Singaboy. I would like white peace, but I'm concerned offering it will be understood as a sign of weakness. Then again, I'm sure he'd like one less front to worry about. I'm sure he'd also love to get Hattusa's science back. However, there is also an excellent chance he is past the point of caring about anything other than causing me and Archduke pain. 

My background concern to all this is the safety of Hattusa. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could take his four units from the Seoul area, and during our enforced peace, go take the city. I would actually love to secure a DoF with Singaboy after the war, but I again hesitate because of that possibility. 

It may be a moot point. I'll see what the next turn brings, and mull over it in the interim. 



Archduke renamed Buenos Aires. I did briefly consider doing the same to Hong Kong, but I recall there being some bugs associated with renaming city-states in Civ5. Moreover, I'd like to give other players the courtesy of knowing which of my cities is the captured city-state should they want to try and liberate it, and there is no other indicator of which city it might be that I'm aware of. 



Archduke additionally settled his 5th city. I forgot to check where, but I now notice looking at the minimap in my screenshots it is in the southern end of death valley, between him and Singaboy. I'll try and get a better look at it tomorrow, although I don't think I have eyes on the city center tile. 

No though, the most exciting thing that happened in Hamiltonia this turn was this dance: 



I crossed the river to avoid being captured by the scout. Hopefully the scout moves where I can nail it with my archer, then I can go to clear the encampment in the fog east of Carthage. Only 2 turns to go to my double expansion, and thus far no delays despite the lack of military escort. 



Woden threw down a Holy Site in his newest city. I'm guessing he's either going to start investing in his religion, or he wants to be able to build some of the religious wonders that require a holy site. 

Anyway, my empire at the end of the turn: 



In the east, my retreat continues. Singaboy fired a parting shot, but I expect that to be the last bolt fired in anger of this conflict. 

While settlers are moving, work continues apace on getting four trade routes out. Next up, my GS finishes, I start spamming workers to get my tiles improved, and I put my plan to get El Cid into motion and attempt to secure myself against a double GG invasion from Archduke once our DoF runs out. 

The big question I'm weighing right now is what gives me the best chance of keeping pace with Woden. Should I pursue a course of intensive domestic development, namely spamming out campuses and acropolises? Should I try and murder Archduke with El Cid and Musketmen? Or should I try to embark an expedition to the westerlands to slow Woden's progress directly? At the moment, domestic development is the order of the day, and I was leaning towards the second for the post t105 world, but I believe it may be worth re-evaluating. Above all, however, I do need to forestall or be prepared for a repeat of the previous dogpile on me, in case Archduke and Singaboy work out their differences.

[Zero_1627]

so far, Your beginnings in all wars were all right but eventually You were thwarted by superior economy of opponents (and GG in one case). I'd say this is strong suggestion that improving economy is order of the day...
Would it be enough to keep pace with Hansas and Woden? I don't know... But Singaboy lost a major city, so that brings him down as well. I'd say Woden is most threatening ATM - and You don't want to look like an easy conquest for someone trying to change _his_ balance vs China