Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[Esteon]

Thanks for the detailed analysis! Really helps reading the game.

[oledavy]

Turns 126-127

Quiet couple of turns for the most part. Getting ready for the civic swap into Colonization, positioning builders for chops. 



First off, unintended benefit of allying with Woden. I have plenty of heads up on how far away the Russian apostles are. 

On the one hand, it's great to see everything he's up to. On the other hand, he has now met Hattusa. Still, totally worth it for the Diplomatic Service Inspiration. I can't wait until I get out of all my current DoFs though - Woden most of all. 

The other thing I did on t126, I finally have the Entertainment District for Hong Kong down!



Then the big news came on t127. 



Glad I can still call some of them. Although, it was Singaboy who declared war on Archduke!

Anyway, good. In order for me to have a serious chance to win this game, I need a number of specific dominoes to fall. 

This is the first one. Singaboy being in an existential war with Archduke means Hattusa and my science rate is safe. My checklist is roughly as follows. 

1. Archduke and Singaboy need to go to war
 - Sub-Objective: I need it to be a costly stalemate of a war, and for Archduke to not roll over Singaboy. I'm honestly not too optimistic on that front, not now that he will have tons of crossbows. 

However, I'll do what I can. I offered Singaboy a 1 gold gift. I intend it to signal that I don't intend to come for Seoul when our DoF runs out on t130. I want him to shove everything Archduke's way.  I don't intend to resign a DoF with him though, I want the option to stop him from taking Hattusa if it comes to that. 

As for the other dominoes. 

2. Successfully mobilize while balancing economy. I need as many troops as I can to level Archduke, but I also need to make sure I'm staying decently even with Woden in tech. No matter how many hammers his civ produces, as long as my tech is comparable, I can do things and have a shot at this. I can't let him get a significant military advantage. 

3. Alhambram attacks Woden with Cossacks on t154. I have all but given up on counting on Alhambram to do anything, but hopefully his UU will finally prompt him to act. In the interim, the best way to convince Alhambram of this path is to make it as difficult for him to score a religious victory as possible and leave him with no other option. This is a big one though, if Woden never has to fight anyone, I don't see how I can possibly be a serious competitor. 

4. Successfully attack and integrate Greek lands. I think I should be able to manage it this time, but I'm going to hold off on any optimistic pronouncements. Still, Gustavus and Field Cannons should put me over the top, in theory at least. 

If all these things happen, I think I can make a serious pitch to win. The big unknowns are whether or not Singaboy bleeds Archduke, and whether or not Alhambram attacks Woden on t154. My fate is in the hands of others, but I will do what I can to incentivize them towards these moves. 

Alright, so on the Alhambram front, I'm trying to position my units to make it as hard as possible for him to maneuver his apostles when they arrive. I have a defensive line stretching from Lafayette to Schuyler that should make it very difficult for him to cross the river, and hopefully force him to go around. 

In the northeast, I killed another sword. 



18 more culture, and a barb camp I can clear next turn for 50 gold. Almost half a field cannon upgrade. 

Here's the bad news though: 



Archduke is making a push for Gustavus, and while I think I have him on lock, I came really close last time, lost, and it changed the course of the game. I really don't want to lose this time. 

I'm not going to be breathing easy again opening this game until I have him.

[Zero_1627]

That's a lot of international events You need... Still, that seems like _something_ to plan/hope for!

[oledavy]

Turn 128

Finished Guilds and got the Banking eureka.



One reason I'm taking all these pictures is to help me remember which Eurekas/Inspirations I got this game, and which I didn't. I think it may serve as a good benchmark for future games for how many you can reasonably hit on your way down the trees. 

Coming up on the tech side, I need two banks and two universities. Getting those Eurekas is taking a firm back seat at the moment though. 

Anyway, time for a new government. 



Settlers queued up everywhere. They'll be chopped into a couple acropolises in the north and military everywhere else. 

The next GA is only 240. I may try to compete with Alhambram for GWs and GAs in the future, but that's low on my priority list at present as well. I think I'll be fine on culture for the rest of the game courtesy of Acroplises, behind Alhambram but ahead of Woden. The challenge is keeping pace in tech. 

Singaboy must have taken my gold as the positive sign I intended it to be. 



He doesn't know or hasn't put together that I'm getting coffee from Carthage though, so I refused. 

I debated for a second whether having one less field cannon was worth offering him a loan, but I sorta doubt it. We'll see if he comes back with anything on this next turn. I hope he's not getting his ass kicked, but if he is, I somehow doubt 1 unit upgrade will make a critical difference. 

Speaking of gold, in the northeast, I cleared that barb encampment that has been there for ages. 



50 more gold for me 

My loan to Alhambram ends in a few turns. Field cannon upgrades are 115 each with professional army. My GPT took a hit this turn swapping out of Conscription, but will be going up again soon. 8 upgrades will cost  920 gold. I think I can hit that in 17 turns. I can almost certainly do 7. 

I'm going to want to save unit completitions and upgrades until the last possible moment, because muskets and field cannons each cost 4 GPT to maintain, a truly straggering sum when you consider I want to field an army of 15-20 of these things. Let's just say I'm glad I have 7 trade routes. Speaking of: 



Running about half and half domestic and foreign at the moment, and running two civics that enhance trade routes. 

If you asked me before this game, I would have told you domestic trade routes are hands down better. I'm not so sure anymore. Human players generally prioritize CHs, IZs, and Encampments instead of the AI's preference for Campuses and Holy Sites. This means that there is often a foreign city around that can give similar hammers to a domestic trade route. 

Food isn't terribly useful for any of my existing cities at the moment, with the exception of the Georgetown -> Hamilton one. 

There is the matter of roads. However, at this point, for a brief moment, I have all the domestic roads I want and am free to make new trade routes without regard to road-building. 

Anyway, Aachen is a great city to send trade routes to. Even if Singaboy were to declare war on me, I would just get all my traders returned to me (something I didn't find out until recently, unlike Civ5), and could reroute them somewhere else. In the meantime, I'm just going to enjoy the gold. I really hope Archduke doesn't take Aachen, if nothing else because I want to be able to send TRs to it to prop up my economy when I upgrade my army. If it falls to Archduke, I would have to swap to a less ideal German city (if any are left), Carthage, or a Chinese city, all of which don't have commercial hubs. 

Anyway, settlers being built, and a last minute library being crammed out of Hamilton: 

[Mardoc]

I have an unrelated question: continent boundaries. I'm curious if the designers managed to find an algorithm that fits my definition of logical .  Is there a boundary on the mountain range that practically blocks you from Woden?  That's the most logical place for a boundary from my perspective.

[oledavy]

Turn 129

Well....it seems Singaboy is getting beaten pretty bad so far. 



Frankfurt 2 has fallen, Archduke renamed it Troy. 



I have to say, I expected coming into this game for Singaboy to be formidable in war. However, he has not fared well at all in his conflicts with Archduke thus far. 

Then again, Frankfurt 2 was an unwalled city in a largely indefensible location, so I don't know what I truly expected. I bet Singaboy is pretty livid at Woden these days for stealing that GE, it was probably slotted to go to that city. 

All eyes now turn to Aachen. Power esimates indicate Archduke's military is still largely intact, while Singaboy has been taking casualties. I don't think he understood the power of double-GG enhanced crossbows. Although, in fairness, I was well aware of the potential they had and still underestimated damage output from them during the First Pelepponesian War because I didn't count on promotions  

However, Singaboy now has Gunpowder and has upgraded at least one musket. This will give Archduke his biggest test yet. 

I'm not going to worry about the encampment right now, which also gets buffed and makes Aachen even more defensible. Aachen has: 

45 base strength
3 Palace Strength 
2 Ancient Wall strength
2 CH strength
2 Encampment strength 
2 Hansa Strength

With no unit, or a crossbow in the city, Aachen has 56 strength. With a full health musket, it has 66. 

By comparison, Archduke's crossbows, supported by 2 GG's, fire with 50 ranged strength. It's unlikely more than 1 or 2 has incendiaries, so I won't account for it. When they attack the city center, they receive -17 strength for 33 strength total

According to the combat formula, this means each crossbow will do about ~12 damage to the city once the walls are gone, and >6 (I believe intact walls modify incoming damage by .33 or .5 iirc) to the city while its defenses are intact. This is based on Singaboy not having a musket in the city. 

Moreover, it's unlikely that Archduke can get the city under siege, since his force is likely crossbow heavy and knights will be the first unit Singaboy prioritizes, so the city will likely always get back 20 health per turn. 

This means that in the best case scenario for Archduke, a successful attack will take 22-28 crossbow attacks (more if the city heals), all the while being shot at by Singaboy and having to contend with the remnants of his army. It will be interesting to see if Archduke attempts to go for a prolonged siege and pillage all the districts around the city before moving on the city center itself, as each one would drop the strength by 2. 

I estimate Archduke has 4-8 crossbows at this point, so assuming the median (and a couple knights), it will be at least t132 by the time the city falls. I'm hoping it doesn't, or takes a lot longer than that though. I really wish I could watch this upcoming battle, as it will be the first time this game we've seen a player attack a fully developed and well defended city with walls. If I have to place a bet, I think Singaboy is going to win. This presumes he's not tilted to hell right now. However, if he keeps calm, and still has some units leftover, he should be able to make Archduke pay for every inch of ground. GO SINGABOY! 

Abroad, Alhambram switched governments to Theocracy. 



This offers him an interesting option down the road. He could stop his attempt at a religious win, and start saving up faith to buy units..... Units that could finally go fight Woden. 

We'll see if he takes that option down the road. I'm hopeful, but not counting on it. Right now, I have to keep his apostles away. 



Note my units all arrayed west of Lafayette. I believe this is the city he's going to try and target for conversion first. If I understand movement rules correctly, it's going to be a pain in the ass for him to cross the Mulligan River. I can't stop him forever, but I should be able to delay him long enough so I can kill the unit before it uses all its charges. 

Also I have to comment on this: 



It's a 5 adjacency bonus campus   I love finding spots like that on the map. Also note, Woden is building a university for the astronomy Eureka in Space Mountain. 

It's worth noting the three of us are in the 3 different 2nd tier governments. Woden is a monarchy, I'm a Merchant Republic, and Alhambram is a Theocracy. I love how that worked out.

[oledavy]

I have an unrelated question: continent boundaries.  I'm curious if the designers managed to find an algorithm that fits my definition of logical .  Is there a boundary on the mountain range that practically blocks you from Woden?  That's the most logical place for a boundary from my perspective.

I'll try to remember to take a picture of the continental filter next turn. There is a divide to my west, right before the hills turn into the Cloudspine Mountains, iirc. 

Also, as an addendum to my last post, I didn't factor Bastions into my estimates of Aachen's strength. If Singaboy is on top of his game, it will be a very hard city to break. I wonder if he'll try to cram out Medieval Walls.

[oledavy]

Turn 130

Apparently Photobucket is now not allowing third party hosting without a subscription to their $40/month service? Screw that. Sorry for anyone who is reading along my thread though, I must say I'm pretty miffed to see all the photos go away. I don't have the time to find every photo, re-upload it, and re-link it in my thread. Perhaps just temporary....a bandwith thing. I can hope anyway 

Shame on me for using a free image hosting site I suppose. 

Mardoc, I forgot to take a picture with the continent filter on...I will try to remember next turn.

I caught a remarkable break this turn. 



Holy crap. The merchant behind Medici is another Renaissance one. That saves me the trouble of having to figure out how to generate 420 GM points. At 240, I can easily nab him with just one of my currently started GM projects before t145, in time for his gold to be used for upgrading field cannons. 

Those envoys are even decently useful for me, with Merchant Confederation and two high value city-states I'm trying to keep under my control. 

Others are starting to sink envoys into them. 



Anyway, I couldn't not comment on this: 




Woof, poor Woden. That barb camp just got a lot harder to deal with. Shame really 

My deal with Alhambram for truffles ran out, so I went ahead and re-offered it. 



We may be at odds right now, but I don't see why we can't continue to trade in the interim.

Speaking of, his faith catapulted into the stratosphere this turn 



I'm betting he took the civics that double faith from adjacency bonuses and from buildings. Here's a pic of his faith producing hinterland. 



First settler headed off this turn. Three more on the way. My soldiers continue to line the banks of the Mulligan River to oppose the now very close Russian apostles. I started a musket in Hamilton. 

More than anything right now, I just want to know what's going on down here: 

[Zero_1627]

what did Photobucket do to the images above (pg35 of this thread)?!

Ah, read above. Thank You for explanation - definitely not endearing me to Photobucket...

[oledavy]

I don't know what to say regarding Photobucket. I'm pretty upset about it. Years of my threads have now been ruined for any future readers, or if I ever want to reread them. 

They sprung a change where they no longer support 3rd party hosting for people who have free accounts without any sort of warning or notification, and put their 3rd party image hosting service behind a $40/month plan. What's more, according to the forums, people who are subscribing to that service are not getting their images restored either. 

Safe to say, while I dearly hope they rescind their decision and restore my images, I will not be using Photobucket anymore. This is completely ridiculous. It was already bad enough that their site is buggy, signed you out continually, and you have to use Adblocker to do anything at all on it. 

I feel really bad for the other players in the game, who will not get a shadow of the reading experience I created when they come to my thread after the game. 

Shame on me for using a free hosting site, and I didn't expect my threads on RB to last forever, but this is truly depressing 

Anyway, quick turn 131 before t132 gets to me. On a more positive note, we're currently maintaining a three turns/day turnaround with this game. While I'm still pretty peeved at Archduke and Alhambram for some of their in-game decisions, as players, this is the one of the best groups I have ever played with. I would gladly play again with any of these four 


Turn 131

Singaboy offered me a DoF. I can only imagine he wants to signal friendly intentions. 



I went ahead and accepted.

Alhambram converted the Greek capital to the south. 



I sure hope Woden is taking the possibility of a religious victory seriously, especially with Archduke making 3 times his faith now. 

On the plus side, as long as Woden is winning and realizes he's winning, the onus will be on him to stop Alhambram. 

Woden doesn't need to take my suzerainity of Hattusa away to pump up his science rate, it's worth noting. 



The price of the alliance. Helpful in a number of ways, but this is one of the costs.