Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[Molach]

Great reporting.

These new russian conquests...I guess they are under occupation penalty, because they are ex-Greek. If you destroy Archie, that means that they will be russian, and that you will never get much out of them while Russia lives. But can you avoid this by taking them before Archduke is eliminated?

Just asking hypothetically.... no pressure for multiple war on several fronts, here. No siree.

[oledavy]

Great reporting.

These new russian conquests...I guess they are under occupation penalty, because they are ex-Greek. If you destroy Archie, that means that they will be russian, and that you will never get much out of them while Russia lives. But can you avoid this by taking them before Archduke is eliminated?

Just asking hypothetically.... no pressure for multiple war on several fronts, here. No siree.

I was considering that strongly, and I'll have more to say about this in the t153 report when I talk about the international situation. For now though, I think it's more in my interest to wait and see what Woden and Alhambram do. Ideally, they go to war and I can take his coastal enclave at will while he's distracted. 

Since apparently making peace is enough to end the occupation penalty, and ceding is not necessary, it doesn't matter as much if I take them before killing off Archduke. 

Anyway, I played a very tired and quick t152 last night. 

Turn 152



Archduke pulled deeper into his territory. With my army almost all redeployed, I maneuvered everything to stage for an all out assault on his remaining two cities starting next turn. I will probably take casualties, but some were inevitable. 

Abroad, Woden took tithe. Maybe he's getting his GPT up now and is getting DotF next, closer to when he's most likely to actually invade Alhambram. 

Most worryingly, Alhambram researched Military Science. He hasn't faith bought or upgraded any cossacks yet. I looked at the stats on them yesterday, and they truly are terrifying units.

[oledavy]

Turn 153

Opened the turn to getting the Astronomy Eureka and the loss of my first field cannon. 



Losing the field cannon sucked, and I think I might have been able to maneuver things so that he would have been forced to kill a musket instead of a field cannon. Shame on me for not executing my moves with more finesse - and a good reason to not play the turn while tired. 

Still, the unfortunately reality is that in attacking Dorium, I'm probably going to take 1 unit loss per turn. It's a fortified city in a chokepoint with hills protecting the northern approaches to the city. I will likely lose 2-4 more units before this war is over, but the end has begun. 

Here are my forces after I finished arraying them for the final attack. 



And here are my forces after I fired some field cannon shots.



They key thing here is to blitz the cities as fast as possible, rather than chase units around the city should he choose to fire and retreat. Force him to come to me. With my muskets in position and a battering ram, I should be able to one-shot the walls of Dorium next turn and open the city up to cannon fire. The priority thing to kill here is the barding knight, and of course the crossbows. That mass of 4 ranged attacks will almost certainly get him another kill next turn. 

Now, let's talk international politics. 



Oh Alhambram....

Okay, the key thing here is not to freak out and overreact. 

There's one of two possibilities here: 

1. Alhambram is about to attack me and is massing cossacks to attack my army. 
2. Alhambram got ancy when my armies moved south last turn into position to attack Pylos and bought himself some insurance. 

Also note, he finished Civil Engineering between turns. 

No though, this is the security dilemma in a nutshell. I don't know his intent, I only see the possibility. So, by buying these units, he has left me with three options: 

1. Continue as though nothing has happened (which I did). The risk here is that he slams my army from the rear and scuppers my attack on Archduke. The reason I chose to do so anyway is because he could only attack me with one cossack this turn, and I would have time to redeploy to fight him. Moreover, it doesn't make sense for him to interrupt my conquest of Archduke as his cities will come out of occupation to, unless he thinks he can't take my entire military (which is silly because he now has cossacks and Civil Engineering city defenses).
2. Withdraw my army from the danger zone and go about my conquest of Archduke in a much slower and more deliberate manner. This would've hurt me more than Alhambram, and if his intent was merely to shore up my position, it would simply create a similar scenario down the road where he can read aggressive intent into my movements - only then he would have more cossacks. 
3. Attack him immedietly and remove the possibility that he gets the jump on me. Only then Archduke could attack me from the rear, I don't have anything that can beat cossacks 1v1 (especially if they're fighting on their home turf), and with Civil Engineering it would be a struggle to take his cities. 

All these options are bad, so I took one as the least bad option. It also doesn't make sense for Alhambram to pick a fight with me right now, given his long border with Woden and their soon to be expired DoF. His force deployments also don't suggest someone who is looking to attack me. 

So, I took a chance this turn. If he was simply jumpy, he should see on this next turn I moved into Pylos and Dorium, and that will be the end of it. He'll be free to move his cossacks across the water. If he does want to attack me, hopefully he'll project it super hard, or otherwise kick things off with only a single cossack giving me plenty of time to redeploy. 

This incident does highlight the inherently unstable nature of our border though. I don't think it can hold like this long term. 

Which brings us to the international situation. 


PBEM2 International Politics

Alright. So, my path forward to win is obvious at this point. I need to build infrastructure and bring my tech rate more in line with Woden's over the next ~30 turns. Then, I need to attack Singaboy and overrun him with a mass of corps. In the interim, if there is an opportunity to snatch Alhambram's Greek holdings away I need to do that. Otherwise, consolidating power in the east, giving me only one flank to defend, and forcing the westerners to come to me is the way to go. 

Only me, Alhambram, or Woden can win at this point. It's also notable that the moment I go to war with Singaboy, they're going to have every motivation to put aside whatever differences they have and attack me, so the moment has to be carefully chosen. I also have to make sure I actually have enough troops to take down Singaboy when the war comes. I have a feeling attacking him will be significantly harder than attacking Archduke has been - although corps should give me the advantage I need even if I don't have infantry on the field yet. 

I may wait to attack him until 40-50 turns from now. It depends if growing my economy or attacking him looks more profitable. But at any rate, taking him out is almost certainly the next step I need to take to win. 

So, Woden and Alhambram. 

I honestly don't know which one of them is winning, I can only say I'm in 3rd at the moment (but with a lot of potential to emerge as game leader depending on how things in the coming turns break). Woden has a stronger economy, a better tech rate, and whatever benefits his wonders can provide him. Terracotta Army, for example, is going to be a pretty big one. On the other hand, Alhambram has a more profitable (at this point at least) religion, more cities, more CPT, and a killer UU that's coming online right now. 

I desperately need them to fight each other and take each other down a peg, but I need it to be a stalemate of a war. Actually, Alhambram overruning Woden would essentially be GG for all of us, as Alhambram would convert his cities. That, combined with the cities I want to take from Alhambram and the continued difficulty Woden and I have in attacking each other puts me firmly in Woden's camp I think. I just need to convey that to Woden. 

The nightmare scenario is that they have found some way to communicate positive intent to each other and are planning to 2v1 me. However, I think the natural 2v1 here is me and Woden vs. Alhambram. Hopefully Woden distracts Alhambram as the more existential threat, and I'm able to take Alhambram's coastal enclave and secure myself a very defensible border with him while relatively few cities change hands in the west. 

Of course, if Woden wishes to just turtle and tech, I might be screwed. However, it's unlikely Alhambram knows that if that is indeed Alhambram's intent. Alhambram may want to take his cossack army east to attack me, but doing so would be a gigantic risk. 

So, in sum, I'm going to try to proactively stay on the right side of the 2v1. My border with Singaboy is secure for the moment, Hattusa isolated by scouts, so I only have the west to worry about. The moment Woden's DoF with Alhambram comes up, I'm going to start offering him Joint War Agreements vs. Alhambram. Hopefully he won't accept right away and will take the hint that I have his back. Once I finish off Archduke, I will redeploy my army to face Alhambram's coastal encalve, and denounce him, beginning the countdown to a formal war. If Alhambram is able to dedicate his entire economy to facing me, he'll probably win. But, if I have Woden on my side, I should be able to come out smelling like a rose. 

No though, fascinating international political situation. But, just like our three way structure in the east, the key thing is to constantly stay on the right side of the 2v1. My alliance with Woden, and removal of Singaboy from the equation currently gives me the inside track on that front, but I need to be very careful. I also need to hope my estimation is correct, and that Woden won't simply overrun Alhambram and be in a position to win off of this war. Hopefully he wins, but not by enough that I am no longer a powerful threat to sew this thing up. 

Only one more major domino to fall. Let's see if we can't make it happen. 

[oledavy]

Turn 154

Quite a bit to talk about this turn. First off: 



Opened the save, astronomy in (giving me the eureka for colonialism). Strangely, however, completing an entertainment district in Hong Kong gave me the inspiration for Civil Engineering? 

Count as I might, I could only find 6 districts (Industrial, Commercial, Campus, Acropolis, Encampment, Entertainment). Maybe a bug connected to the Acropolis district, or something I took from Archduke being double-counted? In any event, I would have finished a harbor in 3 turns anyway, so I'll take it. Still, weird. 

Archduke killed one of my muskets, the one west of Dorium (which was the one I expected him to go for). Gustavus was under it, and he was teleported all the way back....to Yorktown 

Alrighty, I've lost 3 units getting into position around these infernal last couple of cities, time to strike back. 



I cleaned up a crossbow, knight, sword, and Hoplite this turn, getting about a full turn's worth of culture. I could have nailed that final sword, but the priority here needs to be the cities, and his classical units don't do much to me these days. 

I think he's going to kill one more musket, but after that, my losses will be at an end. This turn, I walked a musket and battering ram up to the walls of Dorium to knock them down. Next turn, barring a miracle, I should take Dorium. The only think I can think of that might prevent it is the completion of medieval walls.  



Pylos should fall 3-4 turns after that. Between the initial capture of Mykenes/Yorktown and the probable date of the fall of Pylos, the war will have lasted 12 turns. Talk about a blitzkrieg. 

I would like to thank Singaboy for withstanding the siege of Aachen and doing a number of Archduke's military, and Alhambram for coming in from the west, as the primary reasons this conquest has gone as smoothly and quickly as it has. 

However, speaking of Alhambram....



Yikes.

He is going full bore on cossacks. The only bright spot here is that he didn't buy on in Helicegrad, indicating he's probably not seeking to attack me. While the cossacks in the two coastal cities are still in place, it seems that they were a defensive measure. 

Now for the depressing part. 

Cossacks are 67 base strength, 5 more than cavalry. They already beat muskets and field cannons by +12 and +17 respectively. I can hold them off when I'm defending with good terrain and can get the first shot in - especially when I get Civil Engineering completed in two turns. I can't attack into those. Moreover, when they're fighting on or next to Russian territory, they get an additional +5 strength. Finally, their ability to move after attacking means unbeatable uncatchable cossacks would harass me all the way into Alhambram's territory without me being able to strike back. 

But wait, there's more: 



He completed a GG project. He's gunning for the next GG, and he has the Encampments to make all the GG projects he needs happen. 

That's +5 more strength, or a worst case scenario of a 77 strength cossack while in Russian terrain.   

The next melee unit, infantry (which are probably about ~18 turns away for me), is 70 strength by comparison. 

Woden started upgrading this last turn. 



That's 6 more muskets than he had last turn. The long-awaited end of the DoF with Alhambram has come. 

So, I need to keep the alliance with Woden, and if possible, I need to provoke a war between the two of them. I absolutely need to keep Alhambram's gaze northward until I finish my conquest of Archduke and can move to our border. 

Corps may allow me to more effectively defend against Cossacks, or may compound the problem. I don't know how strong a corps of two units actually is compared to one of the base units. Is it twice as strong? If so, that makes Alhambram scarier with the prospect of Cossack Corps. 

Woden may want to attack Alhambram, but once he does the math, he'll realize it's fruitless and likely either try to sit and turtle it out, or sign a DoF with Alhambram and come after me. I need to make sure he thinks the former is the better option. Even if we can't jointly war and take territory from Alhambram, if we stay united, neither of us can be invaded. Moreover, Woden has to know if he double-teams me with Alhambram, Alhambram will get the lion's share of the spoils due to geography. Still, I can't count on him coming to the same conclusion. With this all in mind, I offered him a joint war this turn. 



Neither of us are in position, but this should signal my intent. I can see all his lands and thus will know if he's positioning to invade Alhambram or not. 

Ideally, he refuses, and offers the same deal back to me for me to refuse. I can hope. 

No though, it's always something. No sooner am I coming off the high of taking down Archduke than I find myself staring down the barrel of a Cossack's gun. We'll see if I can weather the coming storm in one piece. It may just be that the world will stand at an impasse for quite some time. 

I think when my alliance with Woden runs out, I will offer him another. I started out this alliance not wanting it at all, except for the Civil Service Inspiration. Now though, what began as an alliance of convenience and distrust may morph into one essential for the two of us to remain in this game in the face of Russia's UU. 

I'm finally pulling even with Woden in science, although it came partly as a result of him swapping out of Natural Philosophy this turn and into Meritocracy. 



Still, he just got Emile de Chatulet, and I expect he has quite a few techs sitting on 1t at the moment. With that in mind, I anticipate him remaining about 3-5 techs ahead of me for quite some time. That being said, I feel like our tech gap is stabizlized, and with Archduke's core about to come online and more campuses coming online, I can pull even by about halfway through the modern era. 

I hooked up a second cotton at Valley Forge, and offered Alhambram a deal



I could really use the gold for upgrading before long, plus it gets me closer to running a balance of trade with the Russians. 

My empire at the end of the turn. 



Two banks being built for the Eureka. The next priority at home is building a ton of builders in order to accelerate the development of my new cities and Archduke's former core.

[Kaiser]

To answer your question, a coprs brings unit base strength +10 (1.5 times damage against equal strength units) and an army brings unit base strength +17 (2 times damage against equal strength units)

[oledavy]

To answer your question, a coprs brings unit base strength +10 (1.5 times damage against equal strength units) and an army brings unit base strength +17 (2 times damage against equal strength units)

Thank you so much Kaiser! I have a couple related questions I can't find answers to, if you or anyone else knows them. 

1. Does a corps of melee units upgrade the melee strength of cities to its strength minus 10? 
2. Does a corps of ranged units upgrade the ranged strength of cities to its strength?
3. Do Corps have 200 HP and Armies 300? Or do they both just have 100?
4. What's upkeep for a corps? Double the units utilized? Does conscription apply once or twice?

I still can't find anywhere how Military Academies "help you produce corps and armies faster," is it a production modifer? If so, how much?

Anyway, the fact that corps aren't double the strength of the base units is great news for my cities and for fighting Cossacks. A musket corps can just about bring me up to parity with a single cossack. Producing 2 muskets with Feudal Contract is still 320 hammers though, as compared to the Cossack's cost of 237 hammers with the mounted policy in play. My sense is that the best general strategy is going to be to shove muskets into corps as fast as possible, and keep Field Cannons as individual units. Can you get units out of a corps/armies once you form one? It strikes me that putting units into corps may not always be the best strategy. Versus Cossacks, it's useful. Versus someone like Singaboy, it would likely be superfluous. 

Anyway, I'm sure we're all going to be learning together before too long. 

Turn 155



11 Turns. Okay. t165 it is. I signaled back my understanding. 



If he accepts, I'll consider it a countdown to the end. 

For my own reference: 

t158? - My alliance with Woden comes up
t165 - Woden wants to attack Alhambram
t180 - DoF with Singaboy ends and I can attack

My fear now is that Woden doesn't know what he's getting himself into. Then again, he will likely have about 30 field cannons and muskets by the time he attacks, a promotion on each of them for free healing, and likely Defender of the Faith in play working its magic. I wonder how big the radius for it is? I imagine 2-4 tiles. Alhambram will have quality, but Woden should have quantity. Both can purchase units with faith, and both have similar faith production. However, with both sides likely to have Civil Service, it's going to be extremely hard for either to make progress. Perfect 

Hopefully, Woden doesn't get himself killed, Alhambram doesn't simply fold, and I can scoop up a couple coastal cities while they're embroiled with each other. 

Anyway, 10 turns until the war to end all wars, the one that has been brewing all game long. Here's hoping I have maneuvered myself onto the right side of it, and that my suppositions are correct. I will be fighting a very limited war for small objectives, but hopefully I have enough soldiers and Alhambram will be sufficiently distracted that I can grab what I want while building my economy in the background. If I play my cards right, I should come out of this war smelling like a rose. If I have miscalculated, then I can kiss all my Greek conquests goodbye to a horde of Cossacks. 

I now face a number of fun questions. 

1. Do I Denounce Alhambram in ~4 turns to get a formal war dec and therefore the Inspiration?
2. Do I warn Alhambram that the attack is coming? Give him a countdown of gold so he moves his armies to face Woden instead of me? Choices, choices. 

My answer to both of these likely depends on how much I think Alhambram knows. I'll mull over it today. 

Anyway, back to my current war. 



I'm surprised Archduke gave Alhambram peace, but I guess he doesn't care anymore/hates me more. That's a couple extra turns of non-occupied production out of Alhambram's conquests. 

As an aside, just to convey how much the occupation is suppressing my newly enormous economy, in science alone it's costing me 13 SPT. That doesn't even account for the impact of war weariness. 

Oh yeah, I will definitely have to take Liberalism soon to make up for the 12 amenities I'm about to lose (or is it 16, I'll have to check). Anyway, Liberalism will get me 8 amenities per turn, and I can slip into retainers and finish pumping out scouts if need be. I'll look more into that next turn. 

Anyway, Archduke killed another musket - which I expected. I've lost 3 muskets and 1 field cannon in this war. I think a smarter tactician would have lost at least 1 unit less, but some losses were inevitable. It paints a rather brutal picture of the casualties I might have taken had Archduke not been attacked by Alhambram. I undoubtedly would have won, but it would have been much slower going. At least I don't think I'm going to lose any more. 

Anyway, it was time to take Dorium. 



That, combined with killing his knight, broke the back of his remaining military. One city left, which I should have in hand soon. I'll put you out of your misery as soon as I can Archduke. 

Btw, Singaboy finally grabbed the GE that was up (and Alhambram grabbed a GW last turn). 





I would have to patronize him to get him, but James Watt would be amazing. I could complete an industrial zone in Hamilton, and immedietly plop in a workshop and +5 cogs factor to get me 30 cogs per turn 

I may need to figure out a way to make it happen. I'm almost certainly going to target the next GS btw. That chemistry Eureka is worth quite a bit and can't be landed any other way. 

As soon as I finish a university in Lafayette and finish Scientific Method, I'm going to start building Oxford University there. It'll be very costly, but it would do a lot to close the gap between me and Woden - and Woden's likely about to be too sidetracked to get it. 

I will have to bend a lot to getting it though, including buying forest tiles and chopping them. Lafayette's production is not incredible. I'm also considering Alhambra and Big Ben. I don't think Ruhr is in the cards for me this game. 

I'm also going to likely look into signing research agreements with Woden. We can power each other over the power spike of Cossacks and onto units that can actually kill them. 

Finally, I've been eyeing this spot for a long time now: 



I have a number of crappy coastal cities I could settle in the north and far east, but I think this will likely be the last city I settle this game - what I think is the last freshwater spot on the map. I actually kept waiting for Archduke to settle it. Other than that, I think the only settlers I might build will be for vision.

[suboptimal]

I have a couple related questions I can't find answers to, if you or anyone else knows them. 

1. Does a corps of melee units upgrade the melee strength of cities to its strength minus 10? 
2. Does a corps of ranged units upgrade the ranged strength of cities to its strength?
3. Do Corps have 200 HP and Armies 300? Or do they both just have 100?
4. What's upkeep for a corps? Double the units utilized? Does conscription apply once or twice?

I still can't find anywhere how Military Academies "help you produce corps and armies faster," is it a production modifer? If so, how much?

I don't know the answers to (1) and (2).  However, I believe the answer to (3) is that they have 100hp but that their increased strength is supposed to have them suffer reduced damage against single units of their type.  As for (4), upkeep is the same as a single unit of that type.

For Military Academies the "bonus" is that direct-building a corps or army takes less cogs than building the units separately and then combining them.  According to civilization.wikia.com (on the Combat page) the cost of a corps/army is increased proportionally to the increase in combat strength over a normal unit of its type. Numerically I don't know what that means, though it implies that a corp of knights would be 58/48 more expensive than a single knight (as an example).

[oledavy]

Thanks for sharing what you know suboptimal!

I think either way, I'm going to want to cram out as many military academies as I can in the coming turns. 

Alright, I've got a lot to discuss this report, and the turns are flying even faster now with Archduke eliminated. 

Turns 156-157

Civil Engineering in. 



Alright, it's time to wrap up this conflict. I could have waited one turn longer to get an additional pillage in, but that was hardly worth all my new cities being occupied a turn longer. 

So, I mopped up his remaining crossbow and 2 swords for all the last minute culture I could grab, then began the final assault. 





It only took 9 turns to push the Third Pelepponesian War to a successful conclusion. I didn't as meticulously record the results of this war, so this is off the top of my head. 

Dave Kills/Gains: 

5 Cities
50 Science
176 Culture
3 Crossbows
2 Knights
2 Swordsmen
2 Hoplites

Archduke Kills: 

3 Muskets
1 Field Cannon

After the tactical draws or disasters that were my last 3 wars, it's a relief to finally win such a smashing victory. I think a better tactician actually could have lost 1 unit less. Of course, the ease and speed with which I took down Archduke's core was a factor of him being attacked on 3 sides at once. While I am confident I would have prevailed had it been just a 2v1, I imagine I would have taken significantly more casualties. The losses I took assaulting Dorium alone attest to that. 

And so, Archduke exits PBEM2. I will save any complete post-morten on his play until the end of this game, when I've actually read his thread. I have nothing but positive things to say about him this game. He had a game plan in mind, did his best to make it work, and when it ultimately failed, fought to the end. He was a fearsome opponent, and a major threat for a long time. It's not difficult to imagine things breaking a little differently and him being in the driver's seat of this game atop conquests from me or Singaboy. If I had to pin his elimination this game on anything, it would be these two factors: 

1. He didn't win the first Peloponnesian War. He came really close to pulling it off, but in the end I forced a draw. I did a fairly extensive post earlier in my thread documenting why I think he didn't come out on top there, and I think it ultimately all came back to that decision to pillage my trader and put me on high alert. His tactics in that war were fantastic on the whole, but a number of strategic factors broke against him, and the decision to broadcast his attack on me a bit too soon looms large among those. 

2. The burning of Frankfurt. I think Singaboy would have preferred to work closely with Archduke to bring me down this game - it feels pretty safe to say that even without having read Singaboy's thread. While I understand why Archduke attacked Singaboy at that moment, and I don't think it was an awful idea, in the long run he didn't gain enough from that war to make his position unassailable and earned himself a game-long enemy. The Greco-German war scuppered any chance he had of leading a second dogpile on me. This finally tipped the scales in the east in my favor and allowed me to mass against only one of my neighbors instead of having to play defensive.

Grabbing El Cid was a great move that effectively delayed the dogpile on him by about 40 turns. However, it eventually came, and Archduke was not ready for it. I think Singaboy and I alone could have finished off Archduke, but it would have taken a lot longer. Alhambram entering the war accelerated events already set in motion by the way diplomacy broke down in the east. 

Anyway, good game Archduke! I look forward to talking with you about our rivalry after the game. Our wars and the unit tactics involved were some of my favorite moments playing Civ6 to date. I look forward to playing against you again in PBEM 4 

Anyway, finishing off Archduke kicked my economy into high gear. My SPT is now even with Woden, even when I swapped out Rationalism. 



I thought about swapping out Aesthetics instead, but with an Acropolis finishing in Georgetown in a couple turns, I would be trading 12 CPT for 8 SPT. So, I think I'll keep it for now, and swap into Rationalism when I complete a second University and a third library. 

In the interim, I'm queuing up builders everywhere I can.

My culture passed 100 CPT on t157. I am in danger of outpacing my ability to generate some of the Inspirations I need due to lacking the technology. At least this means a culture win for Woden will be extremely hard. I briefly questioned the value of signing another alliance with him for that reason (the increased tourism from open borders), but I think it will be a long time before he remotely poses a threat in that department. 

Anyway, my DoF with Woden ran out on t156, and I offered him another one. 



However, he didn't accept. To be clear, he didn't refuse, he either let it expire or hit the "not right now" option. 

Two options: 

1. He's worked out something with Alhambram and is about to attack me, now that I finally can't see his movements. 
2. He's trying to mislead Alhambram as to who he might be attacking. 

This is a very delicate situation, and I need to tread very carefully. The brewing 2v1 could break any number of ways. 

1. Alhambram and I vs. Woden - Alhambram likely wins
2. Woden and Alhambram vs Me - I don't know who wins but I definitely don't 
3. Me and Woden vs. Alhambram - Me or Woden likely wins

I need to make sure it's the third option, while preparing for either of the other three. I could reach out to Alhambram for a DoF, but that would likely just end with Alhambram fighting Woden and me sidelined unable to conquer anything. If Alhambram wins said war, it would be game over. However, if I give Woden the benefit of the doubt, and he and Alhambram have reached an accord and sign a DoF before I can, then I'm screwed. 

GAHHH. 

One misstep here could cost me the game. 

So, I think I'm going to give Woden the benefit of the doubt here, for now at least. It simply makes a lot more sense that he would want to 2v1 Alhambram with me, rather than try to work something out with Alhambram. If he wasn't really sure he wanted to attack Alhambram, he wouldn't have offered me the joint war deal - or else I could have just accepted it and screwed him. It would have been a hell of a risk to take just to play me. However, if I'm wrong, and he's about to attack me, then I will be in a world of trouble. 

To insure me against any eventuality, I began moving troops north to protect Buenos Aires. We'll hope Woden is actually planning on going to war and not playing both sides. 

Which bring me to my attempt to play both sides. 

Do I denounce? 

If I do, it sets me up to get 460 culture for a formal war dec. Woden could read it two ways:

1. Yay, Davy is distracting Alhambram and luring his troops to his border. 2
2. Boo, Alhambram will know that Davy would never denounce him unless he was going to war, a war he can't possibly win unless he has an ally. 

The latter is more likely. 

Do I convey to Alhambram the countdown? A few ways that could play out. 

1. I do, he moves more troops to oppose Woden. (YAY)
2. I do, he doesn't understand, and keeps his garrisons versus me exactly the same or strengthens them. (BOO) 
3. I do, he conveys to Woden that he knows the countdown, then Woden backs out and declares on me instead. (F***)

I don't know which one here is the most likely, but I'm strongly leaning against alerting Alhambram at the moment. The question of denouncing him is still up in the air though. 

Damn though, I really hope my intuition is right on Woden. This situation is fraught with backstab potential, and all three of us are walking a diplomatic tightrope here to keep our chances of winning alive. One person will fall, but it's impossible to know for sure who that will be, and peoples' plans can change extremely fast in this situation. We'll see what the next turn brings. 

In more pedestrian news, Woden and I are negotiating a deal to get me his mercury. 



He didn't want my cotton. He wanted 5GPT, I offered him 4. If I get this deal, it and Liberalism will completely make up for potentially losing luxuries from Alhambram. 

Irritatingly, the game is not giving me 2 Trade Routes from the captured encampments 



This is extremely frustrating. I have no idea why it won't register than I have 2 more encampments now. 

Anyway, here is the former Greek core. 



Operation Lysander is over, and we now stand on the cusp of the first truly continent spanning war of the game.

[oledavy]

Turn 158

My first spy finally completed this turn. Eventually I may use him to steal great works from Alhambram. However, for whatever reason, I could not send him to Russian or German cities. Maybe you can only send spies to people who have already built spies. In any event, what's more urgent right now is my tech standing, so I sent him to steal from Woden. 




It will be quite awhile before he bears fruit though. Right now, I'm leaning towards stealing the boost for siege tactics, but we'll see what's available at the time. 

This turn, I threw down a bunch of signs to show potential spots for wonders. 



At present, I'm definitely making a play for Oxford. I'm strongly considering The Forbidden Palace, Alhambra, and Big Ben. I'm also mulling over Potala Palace. Diplomatic slots are not great, but they're better for me than most because of Trade Confederation and my two suzerains (Raj would get me 4 science, 4 culture, 4 faith, and 4 gold per turn for example). Still, I don't really think it's worth the hammer investment. 

All the wonders are just so expensive, but free government slots could pay off in a big way. 

It may be too late to start Alhambra. The others I think I stand a decent chance at. Still, a hell of an investment to make. I have a few turns left before I need to firmly decide which I want to pursue or not. With my rivals about to be embroiled in war, I can probably build them in relative safety, and set myself up to have an extremely strong economy on the other side of the war. Still, if I'm wrong, that's a lot of wasted hammers - and I'm not convinced any of these wonders (with the exception of Oxford), are better than just spamming out more boilerplate district buildings. 

The other thing to mull over is thus: 

Do I denounce Woden? 

If we're trying to mislead Alhambram, I could just straight up denounce him. Make it look like relations between the two of us have broken down. I could even declare war. I don't think I want to go that far though, as that would end with me being cut off from both my sources of luxuries, when realistically I can only lose one. Next turn is realistically when I need to denounce Alhambram, but at the potential cost of losing Woden. I don't think Woden would abandon our war over that, but there is still a slight risk. I just really want that 460 free culture.... 

GAHHH...

Decisions decisions. 

Leaning towards denouncing him next turn (t159), plenty of time before the t165 DoW. But man, I need to get this right, and I am fumbling in the dark. 

In other news, Woden is now utilizing Hattusa in the same fashion as me. 



The world continues to hurtle towards an uncertain future.

[oledavy]

Turn 159

Welp, the die is cast. 



A refusal at this point doesn't necessarily telegraph without a doubt to Alhambram that Woden and I will team up against him, but it passes up my last chance to be guaranteed 2v1 proof - although it comes at the risk of throwing the game to Alhambram. 

I took a deep breath, then hit 'no' and threw myself into Woden's arms. Hopefully he'll catch me. 

I went ahead and denounced Alhambram...



...and asked Woden again for a DoF. 

I'll know next turn if I chose wisely or not. Woden could have been playing me this entire time. However, all things considered, I consider it more likely than not he does intend to follow through and attack Alhambram with me. I'm still moving some troops to Buenos Aires just in case though. A 2v1 against the two of them would be extremely difficult to survive, especially with Alhambram having a GG now. 



We'll cross that bridge when and if I get to it. At least I'd have easily defendable short fronts against both of them. 

No though, my entire game potentially comes down to this. It does feel good to finally have made a decision though. I think I have done about as well as I could have in navigating this fraught diplomatic moment. At a certain level though, all my machinations and attempting to read people's intent is for nought. Woden might have been in a bad mood today for all I know, and over the course of the last four turns, decided he's better off attacking me. I'm very subject to the whims of the other players at this moment. 

At any rate, I've done all I can, now it's time to see what happens.