Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[CML]

[oledavy]

What am I looking at here CML?

[oledavy]

Turns 173-174

I unfortunately had to play the last couple turns in a bit of a rush, one late last night the other this morning, so I haven't really gotten time to mull over the international situation and how I want to shape it. 

At present, Alhambram and I are still at war, and Singaboy and I seem to be hurtling towards conflict. I'll begin to work out what is the best path forward in a moment, but first, the last two turns. 



Soaring has fallen. Woden is down to 6 cities. I'm growing slightly concerned that Woden will die before I found a religion, but I'm fairly sure that will not happen. I'm 9 turns out from my Great Prophet at present. Surely Alhambram can't take 6 cities in that short of a time. I will be reconsidering what I need to do to keep Woden alive. However, without any ability to sign OB with him, my options are limited. 

I would like to keep him alive for as long as possible to deny Alhambram productivity, but I'm not sure if I actually need to do anything to make that happen. Even with his rapidly diminishing cultural production, he'll surely finish Civil Engineering at some point in the next 10 turns. At that point, all he really needs is a couple infantry and he should be able to successfully hole up in Thunder Mountain. It's not like Alhambram has aircraft or any way to effectively besiege the city. 

At any rate, for now, I'm continuing to monitor the situation, but the majority of my military is elsewhere: 



I don't think I can stop Singaboy from attacking and razing Hattusa before I can defend it. We shall see. The lead elements of my army arrived on the border this turn. It's worth noting, that since they're allied, Alhambram will see that I am deploying significant elements on the Korean Plain. 

However, at present, his army is still in northern China. Even with a GG, it will take a few turns to get to Theodosia. Moreover, I made an important discovery this last turn. Corps count towards city strength. So, Theodosia with an Infantry corps in it is an 82 strength city with 200 fortification. Even if I didn't have other units around the city, it would be an extremely difficult nut to crack for 67 strength Cossacks (72 if the GG is in tow). Moreover, this would seem to indicate that a ranged corps increases the ranged attack of your cities in a similar manner, so I can still make my cities even stronger if I'm willing to shove a couple of my field cannons into a corps somewhere. This also makes it all but impossible that Singaboy can take any of my cities. The biggest threat he poses is pillaging and to my science production by capturing or razing Hattusa. 

Otherwise, I'm beginning to wind down holy site production, getting the 3/7 done on t174. The majority of my cities are swapping over to producing infantry. I'm about to hurt for gold in a big way, so I am racing towards the civic that saves you 2 GPT per unit and in the interim, and running all my available TRs to Singaboy and Preslav before he declares war and I'm forced to swap to Carthage for sub par gold generating foreign trade routes.  

With a couple crab harvests left to come in though, I'll be set to finish upgrading. I only have 1 musket corps and 1 musket left to upgrade at this point. I may even be able to rush buy a couple more faith buildings, depending on how willing I am to dip into my gold reserve. 

In tech, I'm speeding towards industrialization and then flight. 

Mendeleev will be mine in about 13 turns. Additionally, I finally started my "Steal Technology" mission in Space Mountain. 



63% chance of success, here's hoping the odds are in my favor.

[oledavy]

Turn 175

Well, I was writing a foreign policy round-up and trying to work out what I want to do in the coming turns. Then turn 175 got here, and Singaboy made my decision for me. 



He declared war and started whittling down the city. 

War it is then. Come t180, I will declare war on him, and while I almost certainly can't save Hattusa, I can attack his military while it's exposed with my GG and superior units. 

I will initially seek to protect my cities, limit his opportunities to pillage, and destroy as much of his military as possible. As I begin to deploy large numbers of infantry, however, I will seek to press forward and attack his cities. Ideally this ends with his elimination from the game. It will be a slog though. In the west: 



Welp, there goes an espionage mission 18 turns in the making   I was hoping it would hold out longer. 

Notably, this is the first city since Jungle Cruise that hasn't fallen in a single turn, so Woden will be able to land some return fire here. Still, it doesn't bode well for him remaining in the game. 

I'm not seeking peace with Alhambram for the time being. As long as he's still conquering Woden, he doesn't have enough to overcome my defenses at Theodosia. By the time he does finish off Woden, I'll have enough infantry to defend my front with him at ease. Staying at war with him does cost me -2 in war weariness, amenities I might get from Alhambram, leaves open the risk of invasion, and Monticello under occupation. However, the first 3 cut both ways. Alhambram probably needs amenities more than I do at this point, and our war is likely tying down a few troops that would otherwise be going after Woden. Monticello is an iceball of a city with 2 pop, so lost yield from it are no big deal. I want Woden to feel like he has moral support as well even if I'm not actually fighting the Russians at the moment.

I finished upgrading this turn, and redeployed one of my Infantry Corps to Thunder Mountain. If it looks like Woden may die before t184, when I get my religion out (t187 if I want to wait for Elizabeth's Holy Site), I will declare war on Woden and move into his territory to forestall the fall of the city.

Woden is taking steps to make sure his death isn't the end of the game: 



He's already converted Angelica, and he only needs to convert one more of my cities to make Weedy Movement no longer dominant. I'm not sure he can convert Uptown, but if so that would be nice since I'm not building a holy site there. 

I hope he has a settler en route to a location on my west coast or west of Carthage to prolong his war with Alhambram. 

My army is now facing Singaboy's on the northern Korean plain, and I combined 2 field cannons into another corps to make all my cities as tough as possible: 



To forestall Singaboy jacking Carthage from me at last moment and denying me my best source of gold trade routes, I sank another couple envoys in. 



No way he beats that. 

Alhambram got a very helpful GM in the form of Spillsbury to help with his amenities issue. However, the next one is pretty sucky: 



Finally, in the far south, a barb camp spawned which I am moving to clear before the war starts. 



As far as force allocations: 

Facing Alhambram: 

1 Infantry Corps
2 Field Cannons

Not enough to stop a determined attack, but enough to slow one down significantly and turn back anything with less than about 6 units. Since it seems unlikely Woden will make peace with him, I likely don't have to worry about an attack until he finishes off the Chinese.

En Route to Thunder Mountain: 

1 Infantry Corps

Defending My Southern Border with Singaboy: 

2 Field Cannons

Deployed to the Korean Plain

4 Infantry
1 Field Cannon Corps
1 Field Cannon
2 Bombards
1 Great General
1 Battering Ram
1 Knight

We shall see how this plays out. I'll definitely feel a lot better when I have my own religion founded.

[CML]

24:30 — "Nice glass of Dutch wine?"

(Wrt ice resources)

[oledavy]

Turn 176

Well, after the delay in taking Space Mountain last turn, Alhambram took it and Magic Carpets of Aladdin this turn. 



He's seemingly unstoppable and I don't know how much longer Woden has at this point. I doubt he'll ever finish Civil Engineering. 

On the plus side, he did me a solid this turn. 



Nice going there! The only problem is that Alhambram can waltz a missionary up to Theodosia out of the fog and convert it. Now, regardless of what he chooses to cover it with, I can kill it and cause all the cities in the are to immedietly suffered the 'killed religious unit' penalty. I just don't think it will be enough to unconvert the city. 

And so, things continue to hang for by a thread. I had thought I would get my religion well before Woden fell. Now, I'm not so sure. I finished my first district project this turn: 



The project actually produced more than I thought, about ~50 versus the ~40 I guesstimated it would be. No chance of falling short when the second project comes in then. 

So, apparently I'm still getting sugar and mercury from Woden even though all his sources have been taken?



I may be missing something, but I would not be surprised if this was something the game designers screwed up on. 

With my spy mission scuppered by the fall of Space Mountain, a mere 6 turns before it would have finished, I moved my spy to Astrakhan. 



Going to start trying to steal great works from Alhambram. In the east, Singaboy continues to bombard Hattusa and is moving up a settler. 



He's going to burn the city, and refound on the location. For no other reason than just to deny me the ability to liberate the city to get my SPT back. Smart, but I hate him for it. I'm aware Alhambram can see everything I'm doing, and there perhaps is an argument to be made for pulling a couple units back into the fog.

[MJW (ya that one)]

The game makers cheated and allowed "resources from thin air" in order to prevent you from cancelling deals by allowing your stuff to get pillaged. For example, taking out a huge loan and then attaching a resource deal to it and then getting off having to pay the loan back by getting rid of the resource.

Civ4 stopped you from taking out loans while Civ3 stopped the AI from signing a loan agreement again after you breaking one by having a resource pillaged (a tangent--you breaking one at the end of the game doesn't matter so you could get "free" stuff but AI not seeing the end of the game is one of your greatest advantages against them so that is an extension of that an not an exploit). So, this is yet another case of Trip dropping the ball. Didn't matter for Civ1&2 because the AI was so bad.

[oledavy]

The game makers cheated and allowed "resources from thin air" in order to prevent you from cancelling deals by allowing your stuff to get pillaged. For example, taking out a huge loan and then attaching a resource deal to it and then getting off having to pay the loan back by getting rid of the resource.

Civ4 stopped you from taking out loans while Civ3 stopped the AI from signing a loan agreement again after you breaking one by having a resource pillaged (a tangent--you breaking one at the end of the game doesn't matter so you could get "free" stuff but AI not seeing the end of the game is one of your greatest advantages against them so that is an extension of that an not an exploit). So, this is yet another case of Trip dropping the ball. Didn't matter for Civ1&2 because the AI was so bad.

That's....interesting

I'm grateful because it means I get to keep access to Woden's amenities that much longer though. 

Anyway, 

Turn 177

We're now in one of those stretches of turns where I just want to make it to the other side already - in this case t184. 




Big Thunder Mountain Railway is falling. I started moving towards it too late. It does look like Woden will likely be eliminated before t184 gets here. My only consolation is that Alhambram's power has been falling steadily. I think he's been pushing hard to do this as fast as possible, and in the process has been taking casualties. 

This means that in addition to my eastern neighbor, I will soon need to deal with a western neighbor with a full 2 civs worth of infrastructure and land at his behest - just great 

No though, I give the game coinflip odds of ending before t184. In that time, all Alhambram needs to do to win is take down Woden and convert 1 of my cities. I'm taking steps to make that less likely, including taking control of the tile west of Theodosia (although not before sneaking a quick peak into an empty Helicegrad). 



I'm re-allocating forces to the Buenoes Aires area, in the event Alhambram decides not to stop and just keeps pressing eastward with his cossacks. He probably should. With my tech pace running away and Singaboy about to go to war with me - he'll never get a better chance to eliminate me from contention. 

I think I can hold him off if he does come, but it's going to be a near run thing. Almost all my cities are building infantry and field cannons at this point, but he has a large army and many of my units are still a few turns from being completed. Of course, I may never have to fight that war if I lose via religion first. 



So yeah, we're stealing ourselves for Armgeddon here - one way or another. 

I started withdrawing forces from the Hattusa area this turn. If it looks like Alhambram is going to march on me immedietly, I'll pull all my units out and speed them back west. I would be giving up Hattusa and a golden opportunity to fight Singaboy in the open field, but I would only need a smattering of forces to stop Singaboy's armies from taking any of my cities. The Russian army poses a larger threat. Singaboy could potentially pillage a lot of my territory though, if he's willing to just sacrifice units and throw them into my lands. It's not like he lacks for them. 

Alternatively, I could make one last peace overture to Singaboy. See if we can broker a deal. I just can't see anything like that happening though. He knows this is likely the only chance he's going to get to take a bite out of me before I am completely unassailable and I can one shot anything he can field. 

Alhambram likely has some amenities problems, but with Toys, Alhambra, and the Luxuries he captured from Woden, not as bad as he did have them. Still, he might be looking to stop warring for awhile and focus on growing his new conquests instead. 

At any rate, t184 will likely get here Thursday afternoon at the current pace. It cannot get here soon enough so I know one way or another if my race to a religion saves the game or not.

[oledavy]

Turn 178



Christ, now I really do need to worry about Alhambram. 

How are things looking around Hattusa? 



God that's a lot of units. I do get initiative when our DoF comes up, but my scouts won't even delay him a turn since he can just kill one of them with ranged. Hattusa will fall on t180, razed by the Germans, and there is nothing I can do about it. 

This is depressing. 

And I have other priorities to worry about now. I can use a minimal amount of force, defend against Singaboy, and not lose any cities. I need a lot more to tackle Cossacks Corps. 

And so with a heavy heart, I started moving my units westward. There's no point staging here, I'll just wait for Singaboy to come to me and give up 12 SPT 

Maybe I'll think of something devilishly clever before the next save gets to me, maybe Singaboy and I can work out a deal, but I'm not counting on it. 

I'm weedy again. 



Maybe something to do with the Fall of Thunder Mountain? Maybe just random RNG. On the plus side, Woden has a missionary in the water there who can convert me back. He also has this: 



I don't know if the single charge on that missionary is enough to convert the city. Maybe, maybe not. The game may actually hinge on it. 

I'm currently guarding the approach to Theodosia - although if Valley Forge and Angelica remain Norse, it won't matter if he converts it or not. Still, it will be a near run thing. 

Only 6 turns to make it through, so close. I can't speed up my prophet or religion any more at this point. 

I'll do some brainstorming this afternoon and see if there is anything I can do that I missed.

[oledavy]

Turn 179

So, this song basically sums up my turn. 

More to come later