Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

The turn in pictures, presented without comment. The brainstorming session was productive, and while I may have screwed myself here in a minor way that I only realized afterward (I'll discuss that if and when it comes to pass), this move made a stressful turn a lot more fun. 







Your move Singaboy.

[Commodore]

Only 15bpt lost, that's not too bad. How do you see Hatty/Maddy giving Singaboy a shot to win?

[oledavy]

Only 15bpt lost, that's not too bad. How do you see Hatty/Maddy giving Singaboy a shot to win?

Less than I expected. 

I don't really see it giving him a chance to win, to be clear - but it's more cities than he would get warring with me and it guarantees him 30 turns to build in peace. A lot can happen in that time. 

That being said, he's committed now that he's upgraded everything, and since he's allied with Alhambram, there's nowhere to go with those units except me or Preslav. He's just as likely to view it as me gloating than as a sincere offer - so I don't expect he'll accept.

[oledavy]

Turn 180

Singaboy didn't accept, war it is then. 

I inch ever closer to a great prophet. 

Urbanization came in this turn, I forgot to lock in a bunch of neighborhoods   (Knew there was something I missed), and I started up mobilization. 6 Turns. 

Here is my new government. 



When Singaboy declares on me next turn and I lose the 9 trade routes going to him or Aachen, I will switch them all to Carthage. I need the gold more than anything else right now, and Carthage additionally gives each one 2 hammers. 

I can now reveal that Alhambram would have almost certainly won the game if Singaboy had taken my deal - so thank you Singaboy for not hoisting me by my own petard. Why? Well, losing those two cities would have lowered my city account to 16, enough for 8 weedy cities to be enough to be majority. Both the cities I was offering Singaboy were not weedy. And so, I narrowly dodge a bullet. 

I actually briefly considered offering Singaboy a suite of cities for an alliance with the covert intention of making Weedy Movement not majority in his empire, or lowering the threshold in mine. Unfortunately, his cities are overrun with the stuff, and many weedy cities are my top producers. So, nothing like that this game. This turn, Woden should finally convert Valley Forge, so I'll get some breathing room. 

On a random note, barbs in the south:



So, what have I got cooking? 

6 turns to infantry armies. That will up every city to 77 base strength. Defender of the Faith in the next 10 turns. That makes each standard infantry equal to a cossack corps - even if it is supported by a GG (80 vs. 82 str.). His units will be highly promoted, but few light cavalry promotions help much in a stand up battle - at least as long as I don't give him field cannons to eat. Actually, having all his units highly promoted makes his forces weaker, as they can't attack, retreat, promote to heal as often. 

As for Singaboy, I'm ignoring him for now. Hattusa is his to chew on for the next dozen turns or so. He's about to learn a very hard lesson. Remember how long it took me to take Zacynthus with the same units he has? With a great general in tow? Now remember Hattusa is 10 strength stronger than Zacynthus was, and Singaboy doesn't have a GG. Oh yeah, Hattusa also has a 70 str. ranged attack. I really wish I could have slipped a field cannon or infantry corps in there, but alas. Just the same, he's going to be chewing on that city for quite some time. He has a ton of units, but most of them are obsolete. He poses a major threat as a pillager, using sheer numbers to pillage my lands - but no threat to a city with even the slightest garrison. 

Hopefully he captures the city and I can liberate Hattusa from him later, but for now, it's a city I'm happy to let him attack if it gives me half a dozen turns to get my act more together. With more and more cities coming off religious builds, I can finally throw all my production into deploying a massive army. 

I'm keeping minor force elements around Weehawken and King's College to keep German pillagers at bay. Otherwise, everything is headed to Buenos Aires. I estimate that I have about 10 more turns before Alhambram takes his first swing at me - enough time for him to take down China, heal, and come eastward. I'll be rolling out the red carpet for him. Currently, I'm working to pillage all the roads through the region, to limit the ability of cossacks to attack and retreat. He has no territory in the area, so he won't be getting +5 strength on his cossacks. 

Theodosia is secure for now, although under determined attack if will fall. If the hammer falls down there, we'll react accordingly - but I think it's more likely he comes through the middle. 

The one possible casualty here is Angelica. The city lays beyond where I can set up an effective defense perimeter. The city, is, however, in a chokepoint, has a field cannon in it, and is difficult to chain cossacks into due to the lack of a road leading up to a city and the river to cross. It may end up being just fine. Buenoes Aires is also behind a river, with it's encampment covering the northern approaches. 

So, the plan: 

1. Don't lose via religion
2. Hold off Singaboy
3. Convince Alhambram he can't make meaningful progress against me and he's better off growing his own economy
4. Take down Singaboy/Liberate Seoul - to make my economy competitive with the joint Russian/Chinese one. 
5. Profit???

Let's get cracking 

[oledavy]

Turn 181

Exciting times, as for the second time this game, Singaboy declares war on me. 



Yeah...he's going to be there awhile. I killed a probing Spearman for a few culture near King's College. 

I'm a little annoyed at Singaboy as a person for this, as I thought we had a pretty good relationship this game. Still, as a player, I respect the move. I would likely do the same. Still, it's no fun to be 2v1'd again. 

The real show in over in the west though: 



Sad, but not really unexpected - not once Thundergrad fell. Shame on me for not expecting that though, I had thought he would conquer west to east and Thunder Mountain would be the last city to fall. 

So, how to beat cossacks, PBEM2 edition. A lot of the best options are denied to me, because the cossack horde has reached critical mass. There are likely 6-8 cossacks corps running out there in the fog. How exactly I'm going to beat them wasn't clear to me until this turn (other than simply get more pew-pews that the Russians). 

The critical unit for Alhambram is not actually the cossacks. It's the battering ram. Without it, the cossacks cannot crack str. 70 fortifications - not so far away from their own territory. He probably only has one other battering ram in the west, and replacing this eastern one will take a few turns and slow the offensive. He's probably running logistics, if for nothing else to move around that battering ram around effectively. 4 movement per turn with a GG. That's a lot of tiles with industrial and modern roads. 

If I had this to do over again, I would have been a lot more proactive and pillaged every single road tile between me and Thunder Mountain. Actually, Woden screwed me a little bit there by sending me TRs to make those roads as he's been dying. But he's saving me with religion - so I'll let it slide for now.

Anyway, the cossack cascade can attack and retreat, but the battering ram probably has to end its turn next to the wall, or at least really close. I'm safe for at least one turn, as the battering ram is on a hill without a road, and so will take most of its movement next turn just getting back onto the road network. Angelica is also sadly outside the defensive perimeter and is adjacent to his territory for that +5 str. bonus - it was effectively indefensible. The real shame is losing the 320 hammers invested in that holy side just a turn before completition though 

By the way, for those curious of just how costly investing in religion has been, not even considering opportunity cost, it has taken about 2,500 hammers, give or take a few dozen. At least we're coming in on the home stretch now though. 

Back to the war. 

Anyway, only my first city loss this game, and probably not the last, can't complain. 

Anyway, the plan. 

1. Survive the first strike from the fog. 
 - My fortified cities are already strong enough to do this. I'm moving an infantry corps into Buenos Aires to ensure it doesn't fall to a first strike. 
2. Position everything to counterattack the likely battering ram tile (aided by GG mobility). 

If all goes as planned, he'll come into Buenos Aires, leave the battering ram next to the wall, then I'll counter-attack with everything and kill the battering ram and the cossack covering it. 

That should slow him down at least long enough to get Armies and Defender of the Faith. 

Or he could win next turn...if Woden doesn't win the dice roll in Valley Forge. 



I took this photo to show off one of my new coals, but then I realized Mount Vernon flipped between turns. So, come on Woden, get me through to t184! Only 3 turns to go. I'm so close....

Having pre-mined coal got me the Eureaka for Steel!



Here's my other source: 



I've been focusing on mines over the last few turns, so getting industrialization in is a huge boost to my economy. The problem?



Losing Woden's amenities is killing me. Every city is at -1. I've only lost 2 scouts, but every unit loss no matter how insignificant increases your war weariness by about 1. I need Zen Meditation and zoos yesterday. I'll probably flip into Retainers after Mobilization comes in, and get the situation under control with those scouts (in addition to building a few more). In the interim, I'm trying to be extremely careful with my units, and not give up any of them. I actually deleted a scout south of Germany rather than give Singaboy the opportunity to kill it. 

Anyway....come on Woden. Save me from that religious win. Keep me in for 3 more turns.

[oledavy]

Turn 182

Oh god.



I specifically bought a scout into Monticello a half dozen turns ago to guard against this possibility. But it has escort. I only needed to be able to cover two tiles to prevent him from converting Madison. But....both of the scouts in the frame were 1 tile away from reaching the other tile necessary to block. The field cannon got in position, and I can hope it does something with zone of control to screw with Alhambram, but I don't think that's how it'll pan out. 

And here's the worst part: 



If one of those scouts was even 1 tile closer, I would found a religion and forestall the religious victory attempt. My Great Prophet comes in next turn. 

1 Turn. 

1 Fucking Turn. 

There still is a chance he gets a bad RNG roll. The other possibility is that when Mt. Vernon grows this turn, the pop isn't Weedy (I don't think that's how that works though). 

Anyway, I hope we can send the turn around one last time and see how this pans out, I'm not going to be able to sleep if I have to wonder all night if Alhambram pulled it off or not. 


Either way, it's been a pleasure.

[Ituralde]

The suspense is killing me!

Have to agree with your sentiment, this was a very enjoyable ride and I would like for it to continue some more.

[oledavy]

Welp, it is what it is! That's game folks!

I'm secretly a little relieved it's over now, this game was fun, but also incredibly stressful and frustrating for me. 

It was stressful because from t44 on, I was successively moving from one crisis to another. 

1. The "Archduke is going to attack me while I'm taking HK" crisis. 
2. The "I'm being dogpiled by a GG-led army" crisis.

There was a brief break before we snapped back to the 

3. "Archduke beat me to El Cid by 2 turns and he now has 2 GGs" crisis
4. "Alhambram is going to win via religion (version #1)" crisis

Then finally, after a few turns of euphoria taking down Archduke, the game devolved into the: 

5. "I need to not be dogpiled by Woden and Alhambram" crisis. 
6. "Alhambram is running over Woden and soon he and Singaboy will be attacking me" crisis. 
7. "Alhambram is going to win via religion *version #2)" crisis. 

Maybe I'm just too much of a worrywort as a person, but all this really stressed me out over the last couple months. I felt like there wasn't a moment in which I could truly relax in this game, and wasn't counting tiles missionaries could move or calculating how many hammers Archduke would need to complete a GG project. Here's hoping PBEM4 is more chill if nothing else. 

The game was frustrating because at the end of the day, it was primarily decided by events taking place outside my control. I realize conceptually of course that  FFA games are more often decided by who you neighbor than by skill, but man, it never gets less depressing. Reading the end of Woden's thread, I now see he researched Colonialism before Civil Engineering. Woden, what were you thinking? You knew you were about to face a war, did you expect he would wait for you to declare on him? I also see that you delayed Replaceable Parts to research techs at the top of the tree. It is just baffling to me because the rest of your play was so consistently amazing this game - and that's just from glancing through your early wonder building and the skill and execution you put into pulling that off is awesome. 

China would have still lost cities had they had Civil Engineering. But the rate would have been much slower. He would not have lost access to so many build queues so fast and been able to get out more units. I doubt Monsanto would have fallen, and the cossack horde would not have reached critical mass. There is nothing I could have done to arrest Woden's fall once Alhambram got going, and that rapid fall came down to a single civic choice - more than anything else. 

Even if Alhambram hadn't won via religion, I would give myself coinflip odds at best of pulling out a victory (40/60 more likely). While I think I could have held off the 2v1 (although I see quite a few doubting Thomases in the lurker thread), long-term I was in a lot of trouble, and it would have been a struggle to beat Alhambram with two empires worth of land at his disposal. I needed more than anything to be able to quickly conquer Germany, but that wasn't likely to be an option for quite some time.

Moreover, if Woden hadn't collapsed, I could have continued to count on him to oppose the spread of Weedy Movement, and those 2500 hammers I invested in getting a religion started could have been turned into 9 more infantry. That would have given me Germany. 

Geography shaped this game in a big way, and that huge mountainous area in the middle of the map meant this game was effectively 2 games. 1 1v1 and 1 three-player match. While I eventually came out on top in the east, I was too far away to substantially impact things in the west - and ultimately couldn't play a major role in the events that brought the game to a close. 

All this being said, I'm pretty happy with my play this game. I don't have any strategic regrets. There is a lot of more tactical level stuff I could have improved upon (getting the Military Engineering Eureka, researching Apprenticeship Sooner, using better tactics in the Second Pelepponesian War, etc), but on the whole I'm pretty happy with my play. Playing against humans was definitely a blast, and different in so many more ways than I expected. I think I'm definitely going to be less invested in my next game though. School starts again in a month, and this game took a lot out of me. I'm also still very sad that Photobucket is a jerk website that has now removed all my third party hosting. At least my next thread will still have all its pictures when the game ends!

[pindicator]

The game was frustrating because at the end of the day, it was primarily decided by events taking place outside my control. I realize conceptually of course that  FFA games are more often decided by who you neighbor than by skill, but man, it never gets less depressing.

Man, if you can find out the secret for how to zen this koan I would love to hear it. I know it's been a big frustration point for me in games. And focusing on it can ruin your enjoyment of playing. Yet if you are happy with your in-game decisions, why should there be frustration?

But in the end I would say you played very well amd should be proud of your performance. Even if the game didn't bless you with a victory screen.

[Rowain]

Moreover, if Woden hadn't collapsed, I could have continued to count on him to oppose the spread of Weedy Movement, and those 2500 hammers I invested in getting a religion started could have been turned into 9 more infantry. That would have given me Germany. 

The flip side is had you not stopped your first try for a GP the game would still go on . Never count on others to do something you can do. ( That was he big reason how Lord Parkin won PB4 )

But then nobody knew how extremely powerful (and depressing for the recipient) those Cossacks with a GG (and the right civics) really are.

And yes you played extremely well. That you managed to stay on par in both science and culture with the peaceful west here in the war-torn east is a great achievement.