Current Impossible Strategy

[Nelphine]

Also note: MORE than 4 books in a realm is actually a bad thing. That reduces how many spells can be found in treasure. And since generally you can find them faster than you can research them, if a given spell IS in your spell book, then you can't find it. So you want as few spells in your spellbook as possible so you have the best chance of finding the great spells in treasure.


@seravy: might want to make spells in treasure completely random - but if you find one that's in your spellbook and not researched yet, then it gets replaced by a different unresearched spell of the sane realm and rarity. That way having more spellbooks wouldn't be worse than having fewer ones.

[Seravy]

I don't understand what you mean.

Currently, if a spell is to be found, it'll be picked at random from the first group that has a spell of the correct rarity in it :
1. Spells you can't research
2. Spells you can research but aren't yet visible
3. Spells you can research and are visible
4. The spell currently being researched.

[Nelphine]

Right.
So say I'm playing my standard life build.

If I take 4 books, I have 20% chance of having archangel in my list of spells that I will eventually be able to research.

If I have 8 life books I have a 60% chance of having archangel in the list of spells I will eventually be able to research.


However, for me, I'm likely to find 2-3 very rare spells in treasure before I'm actually able to research any very rare spells (and 3-5 more very rare spells by the time I've finished clearing nodes and towers)

Therefore, with 4 spell books, I have a 20% chance of not ever finding archangel in treasure (due to group 1 in your list).

With 8 spell books I have a 60% chance of not ever finding arch angel in treasure.

That means 8 spellbooks is WORSE than 4 spellbooks. Because treasure is more relevant for determining what spells I end up with in the game than what I actually research.

[Seravy]

ehh no.

Case 1.
2 very rares already in book.
3 very rares found.

20% for Archangel to be among those two.

So you have 0.8*(3/8) = 0.3 chance to find the spell.

Case 2.
6 very rares already in book.
3 very rares found.

60% for Arch Angel to be among those spells.
So you have 0.4*(3/4) = 0.3 chance to find the spell.

To put it simply, probabilities aren't affected by the order of events - pulling the red ball from a bag of 10 balls is 10% regardless of you going first or last (assuming, of course, the balls already pulled remain unknown until you pull yours, or, in this case, don't look at your F3 screen to see your future very rares.)

So, assuming 8 books, you must find at least 5 very rare spells for this to be relevant. If you consistently (heck, make that "ever") find that many in a single game, then something is very wrong with treasure and we need to deal with that.
Even at 9 books, you have to find 4 for it to matter.

[Nelphine]

No, you're misunderstanding. For my purposes, any very rare spell I research, won't be researched early enough to make a difference. Therefore, the only very rares that matter for my gameplay are those that are found in treasure. Ones that I research come much later, and don't affect the portion of the game that is difficult. Therefore, its not about what very rare spells I can get throughout the whole game - its specifically about the very rare spells I can get from treasure. And due to your group 1, I can't get any spells from treasure that are already on my research list, which effectively means (not even I get more than 8 very rare spells from treasure) 4 books is better than 8 books in terms of getting useful very rares.

As for how many I'm getting, go back a few posts to where I stated I, on average, clear 25+ nodes and towers. I don't think I'm getting too many very rare spells at all.

[Nelphine]

To add some clarity for what I'd like to see change:

When you find a spell, the spell will be:

A spell you are not researching and do not already know if there are any spells of that rarity left that you don't already know. (Basically, the combination of your group 1 and 2 and 3).

However, if the spell is already on your research list (your group 2 or 3), then another spell of the same realm and rarity will be added to your research list (if there are any remaining that you do not know or have on your research list already.)

If this is not possible, then you could find the spell you are currently researching (your group 4).

The only potential concern here is what to do in the case where all spells of a given rarity you either know or have on your research list already, but you have access to another realm at that rarity where you do not know or have on your research list all of the spells. Your current system allows the treasure to maximize your spell list by making sure the spell would come from the second realm. My suggestion would not do that.

[Seravy]

And due to your group 1, I can't get any spells from treasure that are already on my research list,

...one more time.

You have 4 spells in group 2. [X]

That gives you 6 spells to pick from when finding treasure = group 1. [10-X]
So the chance of picking any specific spell among those is 1/6. [1/(10-X)]

However, there is also a 4/10 chance the spell will be in "group 2" and can't be picked. [(10-X)/10]

So the overall probability of the spell being in group 1 and being picked is
(the chance of the spell being in group 1)*(the chance of picking it from the spells not in group 1)
which is

(1-4/10)*(1/6) = (6/10)*(1/6)=1/10.

Now, instead of actual numbers, use X.

(1-X/10)*[1/(10-X)] = (10-X)/10/(10-X) = 1/10.

Notice how X is not part of the result, so regardless of how many very rares are in your very rare research, your chance of finding Arch Angel does not change.

This calculation remains valid as long as there are still spells outside group 1 to pick from, but once there aren't, the game will pick from group 1, so from that point onward, group 1 and 2 functions as if they were not separate groups in the first place - this I got wrong in the above post, no, even if you find more than 5 very rares, you're still going to have the same chance for Archangel.

[Seravy]

...oh, the realm. Well, I'm sure we agreed players prefer to find spells they cannot research, and I fail to see how a very rare from another realm is worse than a chance for a life very rare. You might get Djinn, or Colossus, or Demon Lord, or whatever else as good as Archangel, depending on your other realm.

(ok, Life very rares are pretty amazing but even it has some weak spells. Consecration if no enemy has city curses, Supreme Light if you aren't making magical units, etc.)

[MrBiscuits]

Does this mean that if you have 11 books in one realm then you can't find any spells in treasure (or at least are much less likely to) ? This seems a bit of a flaw with the system.

[Seravy]

No it does not, see above, you will get spells you could research if there is nothing else to find.