Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

also, I have to admire Singaboy's cheek - in the midst of running over an entire other civ with almost no opposition, already the clear game leader, with a civ that hasn't even yet hit its most powerful era, he still tries to rally everyone against Japan.

[oledavy]

Turn 89

Short post before I go to bed. Chevalier, rest assured I have read your post and I agree with a lot of your reasoning. I did briefly post a response, but deleted it because it was too harsh. 

This game has just rapidly become extremely frustrating for me, and I frankly am at a loss of what to do. Every option just seems bad. 

So, here's Midgard. 



That purchased warrior will die next turn. Great use of gold there. 

Here, I'll spoonfeed it to him instead. 



There. If he can't figure out what to do with that, then I will truly be at a loss. 

This won't save Asgard, but it might slow Singaboy down and give time for my archers to arrive. I know I'm likely sending them to their deaths, but I can't run the risk in not sending them - that their presence may have swung the tide. 

Crossbow plan is scrapped, I'm speeding to Navigation and caravels, also going to try to get Venetian Arsenal up as soon as possible. 

I have something of an epic stand going on Uranus in the south. 



I'll hopefully be able to approach things more clear-eyed tomorrow, and find a way out of this mess.

[oledavy]

Turn 90

So, this turn featured a couple of bone-headed tactical mistakes, but I'll get to those in a bit. First, I think it's time to articulate a more workable long-term plan. 

Chevalier, I think your general commentary is spot on the money. I'm come to doubt the value of going to Military tactics and building samurai. The biggest issue, is that I need a large, state of the art military now, and giving Singaboy the full nine yards after Norway has already fallen will avail me little. Singaboy has already built his military, and is undoubtedly pushing infrastructure and expansion at the moment. Whatever investments I make in this conflict need to be more precise and targeted for a specific effect. 

Unfortunately, until I get to Exploration, blockading Singaboy with a more advanced navy isn't much of an option. I will have access to caravels in a mere 2 turns, but they still cost 240 hammers (when my two top production cities are making ~20 HPT). I need to production civic to produce any in any sort of quick time frame. With this in mind, I will likely only produce two caravels for the Inspiration before getting the civic itself, so my ability to churn an advanced navy will be limited for quite some time, until research and the Venetian Arsenal are complete. 

It's also worth noting that I don't expect to enjoy too much of a tech advantage on Singaboy before long. He will hardly be standing still. What's setting me apart in Science is that where others built 1-2 campuses, I build 3, and am running them in conjunction with Natural Philosophy, Hildegard, and Jesuit Education. While the latter two cannot be replicated by someone else, it won't take Singaboy that long to plop down some more campuses with his monster MFG, build libraries, start running the right civics, and even our SPTs. All the while he'll also be increasing faster linearly due to more cities and Viking conquests. 

So, I think a 4-5 tech lead is about all I can count on. Meaningful at some points in the tech tree, not so much at others. 

I think your idea of invading Spain is sound, and absorbing CFCJesterfool will undoubtedly be part of my long-term strategy. However, I don't have a tech edge on him at the moment. Better to leave him be for awhile, get better units, let him finish districts, and when our divergent SPTs (70 vs. ~18) have finally put me a full era ahead in military, I will then scoop him up. 

In the interim, I need a strategy that limits Singaboy's growing lead as much as possible, while still expanding and serving to rectify the greatest weakness of the OIA, my lack of MFG and GPT. 

With these priorities and realities in mind, here is my general plan going forward. 

The Defense of Asgard

Jpper007 finally upgraded a sword this last turn. I offered him an additional loan: 



This will provide him with enough to upgrade another sword. 

Two swords, ideally city walls, plus his archers, navy, and my incoming archers to defend Asgard against an unknown number of assailants. 

It might be enough. Singaboy shouldn't be able to put the city under siege at least. On the right defensive terrain this can work. I will find out this turn if I can gift units or not, at while point I will decide whether to keep my expeditionary force as an independent military, or provide it to the Vikings. 

Jpper seriously owes me after all this. If he's still alive. 

At any rate, a defense is possible (if the terrain doesn't favor the attackers too much). However, I have relatively little faith in Jpper007 to pull it off. What he needs to do to make this work is sit a sword in the city to absorb attacks, and use the other one to block off attacks on the archer backline. Killing the obligatory German battering ram would be huge if he could pull it off. 

At any rate, I wish him luck, and give him realistically about 25% odds of success. If he loses the capital, he's effectively out of the game. My priority will swap to keeping him alive as long as possible. 



Two options to this end. Ganymede just finished a TD. (Broke 70 SPT!), and yes, I immediately bought in an amphitheater, so Great Writer, here I come!

Anyway, it's building a builder currently for previously discussed farming/production enhancement reasons. What then? Well, Cartography will be done. I'll build a caravel. If I can gift things to Jpper, I will sell it to him and it will instantly boost his remaining cities up to 40 str. That should give Singaboy something to chew on. 

Alternatively, I use the boat and my other land/naval units to take Jotunheim. 55 str. vs. 26? It will fall pretty quickly. Actually two caravels, which I intend to build, should get me basically any city on the map provided it has at least two adjacent coastal tiles. I will decide whether to kill Norway or continue to prop them up at that point depending on the war is going

This brings me to the more long-term plan. Singaboy has alerted me to the fact that at this point, its simply a better idea to go take other people's shit than settle, with settlers being as expensive as they are. While I will be at least getting out a couple more cities (need places for my boats to heal at the very least), my mid-term priority will be getting out a strong enough navy of caravels, galleys, and quadriemes to go and start taking cities - Jerusalem, Toronto, etc. 

The best news of all? With a city like Jotunheim, if I spread my religion immediately, adjacent warriors get Defender of the Faith and go up to 35 strength. Anyone want a 26 hammer resourceless 35 strength unit? I do. I will fight Singaboy's GG-led army all day on those terms. 

Anyway, that's some of my long-term thinking at this point. My immediate domestic priorities are cramming out a round of builders, and continuing to lay the groundwork for VA. We'll see how things develop in the east. Hopefully, Asgard holds, but I'm not holding my breath. 

At any rate, this is the balance I'm going to try to maintain, using existing units, gold, and resources to prop up Jpper007, and preparing for a number of aftermath with a mix of expansion, wonder, and naval builds. 

One other bit of international news before I get to my derps. 



Woden is probably pillaging, stealing a worker from BA. 

Anyway, so on Saturn: 



I took the attack, rolled well, but only lowered the archer to 2-3 HP. 

I had calculated before, that the archer would be hitting me with 16 str. to my 24 str. Enough that my 22 HP warrior would likely survive (barring a bad damage roll), and then kill the archer, itself living with 1 HP. 

It was only after I sent the turn on that I realized that Battlecry doesn't apply against ranged attacks 

Yeah, he's almost certainly dead. That's a minor setback. Now I will have to reroute a unit from Uranus to finish clearing off the island, and a 1HP archer....

This could have all been avoided if I took Tortoise last turn instead of Battlecry. 

But wait, there's more. 



My wounded warrior had to retreat to the water or die, but now Woden gets the option of killing it. I decided to retreat from the encirclement, because while the warrior would for sure die to the barbs, Woden may choose to keep going. Indeed, he doesn't know it, but if he attacks me, his galley will be surrounded by my three galleys and unable to retreat. He can keep it alive if he keeps going. 

Galley for a warrior would be annoying. As I need the warrior more than he needs that exploring galley right now (at least I think so). 

I'm tempted to advise him of my surrounding navy in the diplo thread, but I feel that would just provoke him to violence. Him and I aren't on good terms to begin with right now.

[oledavy]

Turn 91

Quick report this time around. 



My warrior died to the barb archer. Woden spared my warrior though. My galley is shadowing him on his way out of my seas. 

Jpper007 turned down my offer, which likely means he doesn't have a second warrior at the moment 

I get sight on Asgard next turn. I either can't gift him units, or can't gift units that are wounded. 


An interesting note from abroad. 



Seems Woden won't be killing Libson, and is contesting Singaboy for them now. Importantly though, this means he likely is going to kill Stockholm. I probably don't want to sink any more envoys into it.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Your longterm plans seem ideal to me! Making the best of a bad situation. x_x I can't believe the Vikings can hardly be bothered even to defend themselves! Oh, well, keep the faith and know that I appreciate your detailed reporting, especially during tough times. It's difficulties and challenge that make for the most satisfying games, after all. :D

Anyway, I guess the relevant factor now is your naval strength, ensuring that at least you can ward Singa (and others) away from your waters.

I feel like it should be standard procedure to maintain naval patrols near any civ that's rushing a GG and building military. I'm still kind of flabbergasted that Japper didn't have a fleet of longboats ready to intercept Singaboy's transports long before they got near (or at least force Singaboy to build a powerful fleet to force a passage). Oh well. Good luck in the coming turns, and keep it up!

[oledavy]

I feel like it should be standard procedure to maintain naval patrols near any civ that's rushing a GG and building military. I'm still kind of flabbergasted that Japper didn't have a fleet of longboats ready to intercept Singaboy's transports long before they got near (or at least force Singaboy to build a powerful fleet to force a passage). Oh well. Good luck in the coming turns, and keep it up!

Yeah, that is also the most surprising bit of all this to me. Singaboy finishing an encampment, slowly grinding towards it over a nearly 50 turn period, should have clued Jpper007 in to the fact that he would need to be on guard (see me and Singaboy's reactions to a similar move by Archduke in PBEM2). Considering I saw all of two German galleys, I think a small flotilla in the area easily could have kept Singaboy at bay - or at least forced him into a naval war that the Vikings would have a leg up on due to longships and their production advantage. 

This war was effectively over the moment the Vikings conceded the sea. The following moves (buying a warrior, delaying a sword upgrade by two turns, etc.) have just served to accelerate the fall. 

I will have to wait until after the game to find out if Jpper007's bluster was sincere or not, but his general game play (early HS, buying a warrior), just reeks of rookieness. Still, Archduke made many of the same mistakes his first game, and he has since improved. Hopefully this will turn into a good learning opportunity for Jpper007. 

Turn 92



I'm stopping to heal this turn, as that sword is blocking more progress down the road. I find out next turn if I can gift full health units. 

Asgard could be on the brink of falling for all I know, the fact that he doesn't have the sword in the city bodes ill. 

In the midst of all this, the Vikings are continuing the settle iceball cities. 



On the plus side, this will mean it takes Singaboy longer to kill him, he'll have to hunt down all these isolated cities. On the other, potential free city to Singaboy. Seriously, for the approximate price of just one of the three settlers Jpper007 produced in the last bunch of turns (while running colonization), he could have produced 3-4 longships (with his production bonus and martime industries).

Anyway, the Spanish are at least learning from their hard knocks. 



He has a galley out somewhere btw. He still seems to be going nowhere terribly fast. If nothing else though, he's benefiting from the bigger events going on elsewhere. 

I came to a realization in the shower this morning: why I am planning to build two caravels when I can just upgrade one? This circumvents the "trying to produce a 240 cog unit without a production modifier" problem. I just haven't been focusing on using gold to upgrade things, as my GPT is so miserable compared to others - a result of prioritizing lots of non CH or Harbor districts and running Natural History instead of Conscription, etc. 

With Professional Army in place, upgrading the Rocinante will cost 320 gold. I'm earning only 4 GPT and have 93 gold at the moment. 

Never fear though! Over the next bunch of turns I will seek to begin rectifying this. 

 - Next turn Cartography finishes for +2 gold on each fishing boat.  
 - Next turn Ceres grows and grabs its cotton for +3 GPT
 - 3 turns from now, I sink an envoy into Libson for +4 GPT
 - 5 turns from now I plantation Ganymede's Cotton for +2 GPT

I also face a choice of whether to run colonization, Literary Tradition, or Conscription in a few turns when I can make a civic swap, leaning towards the last one at the moment. 

At any rate, in the coming turns I'll be lifting my GPT out of the dumps and start accumulating enough gold to upgrade a second caravel instead of building it from scratch. 

As an aside, I want to come up with a term to describe this part of the game - what I've been in the midst of for the last dozen turns or so, the early medieval doldrums or something like that. I encountered this same point around t90/100/110 in PBEM 2 - you reach a point in the early medieval part of the tech tree where everything is really expensive compared to the production you have on hand and you feel like your progress is slowing.

[rho21]

As an aside, I want to come up with a term to describe this part of the game - what I've been in the midst of for the last dozen turns or so, the early medieval doldrums or something like that.

The Dark Ages?

P.S. Enjoying the thread, keep up the good reporting work.

[Emperor K]

Excellent reporting I also finished your PBEM 2 report and that was excellent as well, thanks.

[oledavy]

As an aside, I want to come up with a term to describe this part of the game - what I've been in the midst of for the last dozen turns or so, the early medieval doldrums or something like that.

The Dark Ages?

P.S. Enjoying the thread, keep up the good reporting work.

Dark Ages seems as good as anything, we'll go with it! 

Thanks!

Excellent reporting I also finished your PBEM 2 report and that was excellent as well, thanks.

Thanks Emperor K! And welcome to the forums!

Turn 93

So, in contrast to the depressing tone around here of late, this turn I'm walking away encouraged about Jpper007's odds in this war. 



One more turn until my two archers are in position around Asgard. And as many turns after that as Singaboy will give me would be great for the first one to heal. 

So, Asgard has walls, a sword garrison, and Jpper007 has two archers in the area. The big news here though is that the terrain is fantastic for the defender - I sincerely couldn't have asked for much better. There's only one tile from which Singaboy can hit the city with an archer/crossbow. That forest blocks ranged from being effective, the river protects the city from the southwest, and the stone tile can be fired upon by an archer across the bay. The city can't be put under siege unless Singaboy controls the water (don't let me down here Jpper007). 

This is just all around great stuff. 

Singaboy's best chance is to just punch forward as soon as possible, focusing attention on the archer west of the city. However, a horseman even with a GG can't one hit kill an archer. Moreover, a horse on that forest will be subject to all sorts of couterfire. In short, attacking the city directly will be tricky, and trying to clear out the units and then attack the city will be a bloodbath for both sides. Finally, the longer Singaboy delays, the better for us. 

If I was Singaboy, I would re-embark and try landing west of Asgard. But....the cliffs make it impossible to attempt a large scale landing. There is only one beach nearby (the stone), which can also be focus-fired from existing positions. Moreover, I have an archer near Jotunheim, and my two undamaged galleys are on their way to patrol the seas west of Midgard/pillage its crabs. 

EDIT: 

Well it seems Singaboy is trying to circumvent my walled capital by embarking his knights and strike at my Western cities, so if you can try to hold there. I'll have some units and walls in that area soon too, but I'm feeling like he's trying to fork me.

I hope my galleys arrive in time, they may be too late at this point. I can retake Jotunheim should he take it though, just give me a few turns to get out a caravel. 

End Edit. 

Just really good stuff all round. If Jpper007 plays his cards right, he should be able to stop Singaboy at this chokepoint. The narrow passes and rough terrain negate most of Singaboy's advantages, and mean that control of the sea is once again relevant. IF I am correct in my read on this, Singaboy either stays bottled up on the peninsula, or tries to wrest control of the seas from Jpper in order to proceed. Unfortunately, with his production advantage, that is a distinct possibility in the long-term. 

Anyway, watch me type all this and Singaboy just slaugher Jpper007 anyway.   For the moment though, I'm very cautiously optimistic. 

Sidebar, I cant gift units as it turns out. 

Okay, other stuff: 



Also, CFCJesterfool once again surprises with running a project (production enhanced by Hong Kong). 





I'll hand it to CFCJesterfool, he's lagging, but doing a surprisingly good job hanging in there and grabbing great people. That's the second one he's landed that he probably shouldn't have been able to get. I don't know about how many hammers he's sinking into district projects, but I have to give him credit for subverting my expectations 

As a final aside, it looks like Archduke will have two Great Admirals before too long. That will be interesting, and potentially really threatening. Thankfully, he's very far away from me.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

That is an excellent defensive capital! Sending the OIEF in was the right call, the archers just might be able to hold it with that terrain. Let me think of possibilities:

1)Singaboy is attempting to flank to the west. There is the small beach, where any invaders can be met on the shore with at least two archers, and hopefully pinned in place. This also seems a good place to send any galleys, if you can spare them. Hopefully this can become an Anzio or Gallipolli.

2)Singaboy rushes the center. Let's assume one archer or crossbow, and two horsemen with battering rams (with fresh units to rotate in). How much damage could they do to the city? Is it enough for him to take it with a headlong rush? How many units would it cost him to wear down the walls and take the city via attrition? This seems unlikely (no one yet has seemed willing to trade heavy casualties for terrain - instead I feel like players have usually striven to preserve their units whenever possible), but I just want to cover all contingencies.

3)Singaboy flanks over the water to the east. With enough force he could unhinge the archers behind Asgard and put the city under siege. This seems like the most likely war-winning move to me, but it looks like Japper has an archer on a hill watching that direction. Plus, we haven't seen the Viking navy, so maybe the longboats are operating in that area? How many longboats does he have, anyway? (and for that matter, how big is the Kriegsmarine? Any way to estimate it from what we've seen of the German military? Don't stress about this, I'm just curious and trying to grasp the overall picture of the war, you certainly don't need to do extra work on my lazy butt's account).

Anyway, none of Singaboy's options at this point look great. Stabilizing the front would be huge - Singaboy would be confronted with a war of attrition instead of the easy conquest of a neighbor, so you know, obviously good news.

I think best-case scenario is that Singaboy bogs down and either signs peace or settles into a cold war at Asgard, while giving the OIA a chance to catch its breath, solidify the neutral island colonies. You may have a chance to narrow the gap between you and the Germans soon!

Thanks again for your great reporting, and for tolerating me. Tons of fun to follow along.